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At least 505 records · Page 28

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

Kumar, Sricharan↗

Improved Prediction of Losses with Large Eddy Simulation in a Low Pressure Turbine

We will present the wake profiles resulting from our previous computations for a range of FSTs. We will address key questions such as how the numerics, mesh density in addition to the FST level affect the wake prediction. We will utilize the spectral analysis and investigate the dynamic behavior of the wake as influenced by the flow variations in locations upstream.

LES↗

Results from Binary Black Hole Simulations in Astrophysics Applications

Present and planned gravitational wave observatories are opening a new astronomical window to the sky. A key source of gravitational waves is the merger of two black holes. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), in particular, is expected to observe these events with signal-to-noise ratio's in the thousands. To fully reap the scientific benefits of these observations requires a detailed understanding, based on numerical simulations, of the predictions of General Relativity for the waveform signals. New techniques for simulating binary black hole mergers, introduced two years ago, have led to dramatic advances in applied numerical simulation work. Over the last two years, numerical relativity researchers have made tremendous strides in understanding the late stages of binary black hole mergers. Simulations have been applied to test much of the basic physics of binary black hole interactions, showing robust results for merger waveform predictions, and illuminating such phenomena as spin-precession. Calculations have shown that merging systems can be kicked at up to 2500 km/s by the thrust from asymmetric emission. Recently, long lasting simulations of ten or more orbits allow tests of post-Newtonian (PN) approximation results for radiation from the last orbits of the binary's inspiral. Already, analytic waveform models based PN techniques with incorporated information from numerical simulations may be adequate for observations with current ground based observatories. As new advances in simulations continue to rapidly improve our theoretical understanding of the systems, it seems certain that high-precision predictions will be available in time for LISA and other advanced ground-based instruments. Future gravitational wave observatories are expected to make precision.

Baker, John G.↗

A Method for Combining Experimentation and Molecular Dynamics Simulation to Improve Cohesive Zone Models for Metallic Microstructures

Fracture processes within a material begin at the nanometer length scale at which the formation, propagation, and interaction of fundamental damage mechanisms occur. Physics-based modeling of these atomic processes quickly becomes computationally intractable as the system size increases. Thus, a multiscale modeling method, based on the aggregation of fundamental damage processes occurring at the nanoscale within a cohesive zone model, is under development and will enable computationally feasible and physically meaningful microscale fracture simulation in polycrystalline metals. This method employs atomistic simulation to provide an optimization loop with an initial prediction of a cohesive zone model (CZM). This initial CZM is then applied at the crack front region within a finite element model. The optimization procedure iterates upon the CZM until the finite element model acceptably reproduces the near-crack-front displacement fields obtained from experimental observation. With this approach, a comparison can be made between the original CZM predicted by atomistic simulation and the converged CZM that is based on experimental observation. Comparison of the two CZMs gives insight into how atomistic simulation scales.

Hochhalter, J. D.↗

Development of Monte Carlo Capability for Orion Parachute Simulations

Parachute test programs employ Monte Carlo simulation techniques to plan testing and make critical decisions related to parachute loads, rate-of-descent, or other parameters. This paper describes the development and use of a MATLAB-based Monte Carlo tool for three parachute drop test simulations currently used by NASA. The Decelerator System Simulation (DSS) is a legacy 6 Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) simulation used to predict parachute loads and descent trajectories. The Decelerator System Simulation Application (DSSA) is a 6-DOF simulation that is well suited for modeling aircraft extraction and descent of pallet-like test vehicles. The Drop Test Vehicle Simulation (DTVSim) is a 2-DOF trajectory simulation that is convenient for quick turn-around analysis tasks. These three tools have significantly different software architectures and do not share common input files or output data structures. Separate Monte Carlo tools were initially developed for each simulation. A recently-developed simulation output structure enables the use of the more sophisticated DSSA Monte Carlo tool with any of the core-simulations. The task of configuring the inputs for the nominal simulation is left to the existing tools. Once the nominal simulation is configured, the Monte Carlo tool perturbs the input set according to dispersion rules created by the analyst. These rules define the statistical distribution and parameters to be applied to each simulation input. Individual dispersed parameters are combined to create a dispersed set of simulation inputs. The Monte Carlo tool repeatedly executes the core-simulation with the dispersed inputs and stores the results for analysis. The analyst may define conditions on one or more output parameters at which to collect data slices. The tool provides a versatile interface for reviewing output of large Monte Carlo data sets while preserving the capability for detailed examination of individual dispersed trajectories. The Monte Carlo tool described in this paper has proven useful in planning several Crew Exploration Vehicle parachute tests.

Moore, James W.↗

New Constraints on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Galaxies from Proper Motions of Globular Cluster Streams

The central density profiles in dwarf galaxy halos depend strongly on the nature of dark matter (DM). Recently, in Malhan et al. we employed N-body simulations to show that the cuspy cold DM subhalos predicted by cosmological simulations can be differentiated from cored subhalos using the properties of accreted globular cluster (GC) streams since these GCs experience tidal stripping within their parent halos prior to accretion onto the Milky Way. We previously found that clusters that are accreted within cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger physical widths and higher dispersions in line-of-sight velocity and angular momentum than streams that are accreted within cored subhalos. Here, we use the same suite of simulations to demonstrate that the dispersion in the tangential velocities of streams (σ 𝜈 Tan) is also sensitive to the central DM density profiles of their parent dwarfs and GCs that they were accreted from; cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger σ 𝜈 Tan than those accreted inside cored subhalos. Using Gaia EDR3 observations of multiple GC streams we compare their (σ 𝜈 Tan) values with simulations. The measured (σ 𝜈 Tan) values are consistent with both an “in situ” origin and with accretion inside cored subhalos of M ∼ 10(8–9) Me (or very low-mass cuspy subhalos of mass ∼10(8) Mꙩ ). Despite the large current uncertainties in σ 𝜈 Tan, we find a low probability that any of the progenitor GCs were accreted from cuspy subhalos of M ≳ 10 (9) Mꙩ. The uncertainties on Gaia tangential velocity measurements are expected to decrease in future and will allow for stronger constraints on subhalo DM density profiles.

Khyati Malhan↗

Monte Carlo simulations of particle acceleration at oblique shocks: Including cross-field diffusion

The Monte Carlo technique of simulating diffusive particle acceleration at shocks has made spectral predictions that compare extremely well with particle distributions observed at the quasi-parallel region of the earth's bow shock. The current extension of this work to compare simulation predictions with particle spectra at oblique interplanetary shocks has required the inclusion of significant cross-field diffusion (strong scattering) in the simulation technique, since oblique shocks are intrinsically inefficient in the limit of weak scattering. In this paper, we present results from the method we have developed for the inclusion of cross-field diffusion in our simulations, namely model predictions of particle spectra downstream of oblique subluminal shocks. While the high-energy spectral index is independent of the shock obliquity and the strength of the scattering, the latter is observed to profoundly influence the efficiency of injection of cosmic rays into the acceleration process.

Baring, M. G.↗

A simulation and diagnostic study of water vapor image dry bands

Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System model simulation and a special 3-hr radiosonde data set were used to investigate warm bands in the 6.7-micron water-vapor satellite imagery on March 6-7, 1982. It was found that the model reproduces major characteristics of the observed blackbody temperature, T(B), field. A 'development' dry image feature was found to occur in conjunction with an upper level shortwave trough, and an 'advective' feature was found associated with a polar jet streak. Both model and observed T(B) features were associated with vorticity maxima.

Muller, Bradley M.↗

Scattering of sound by atmospheric turbulence predictions in a refractive shadow zone

According to ray theory, regions exist in an upward refracting atmosphere where no sound should be present. Experiments show, however, that appreciable sound levels penetrate these so-called shadow zones. Two mechanisms contribute to sound in the shadow zone: diffraction and turbulent scattering of sound. Diffractive effects can be pronounced at lower frequencies but are small at high frequencies. In the short wavelength limit, then, scattering due to turbulence should be the predominant mechanism involved in producing the sound levels measured in shadow zones. No existing analytical method includes turbulence effects in the prediction of sound pressure levels in upward refractive shadow zones. In order to obtain quantitative average sound pressure level predictions, a numerical simulation of the effect of atmospheric turbulence on sound propagation is performed. The simulation is based on scattering from randomly distributed scattering centers ('turbules'). Sound pressure levels are computed for many realizations of a turbulent atmosphere. Predictions from the numerical simulation are compared with existing theories and experimental data.

Mcbride, Walton E.↗

Three-Dimensional Unsteady Simulation of a Modern High Pressure Turbine Stage Using Phase Lag Periodicity: Analysis of Flow and Heat Transfer

Unsteady three-dimensional RANS simulations have been performed on a highly loaded transonic turbine stage and results are compared to steady calculations as well as experiment. A low Reynolds number k- turbulence model is employed to provide closure for the RANS system. A phase-lag boundary condition is used in the periodic direction. This allows the unsteady simulation to be performed by using only one blade from each of the two rows. The objective of this paper is to study the effect of unsteadiness on rotor heat transfer and to glean any insight into unsteady flow physics. The role of the stator wake passing on the pressure distribution at the leading edge is also studied. The simulated heat transfer and pressure results agreed favorably with experiment. The time-averaged heat transfer predicted by the unsteady simulation is higher than the heat transfer predicted by the steady simulation everywhere except at the leading edge. The shock structure formed due to stator-rotor interaction was analyzed. Heat transfer and pressure at the hub and casing were also studied. Thermal segregation was observed that leads to the heat transfer patterns predicted by steady and unsteady simulations to be different.

Shyam, Vikram↗

Three-Dimensional Unsteady Simulation of Aerodynamics and Heat Transfer in a Modern High Pressure Turbine Stage

Unsteady 3-D RANS simulations have been performed on a highly loaded transonic turbine stage and results are compared to steady calculations as well as to experiment. A low Reynolds number k-epsilon turbulence model is employed to provide closure for the RANS system. A phase-lag boundary condition is used in the tangential direction. This allows the unsteady simulation to be performed by using only one blade from each of the two rows. The objective of this work is to study the effect of unsteadiness on rotor heat transfer and to glean any insight into unsteady flow physics. The role of the stator wake passing on the pressure distribution at the leading edge is also studied. The simulated heat transfer and pressure results agreed favorably with experiment. The time-averaged heat transfer predicted by the unsteady simulation is higher than the heat transfer predicted by the steady simulation everywhere except at the leading edge. The shock structure formed due to stator-rotor interaction was analyzed. Heat transfer and pressure at the hub and casing were also studied. Thermal segregation was observed that leads to the heat transfer patterns predicted by steady and unsteady simulations to be different.

Shyam, Vikram↗

FUN3D Mesh Adaptation Simulations of 4th AIAA High-Lift Prediction Workshop Case 1a

Special sessions of the High Lift Prediction/Geometry & Mesh Generation Workshop. Will be written and presented at AIAA Aviation 2022. Describes in detail FUN3D Mesh adaptation simulation results for the 4th AIAA High-Lift Prediction Workshop. RANS (Stabilized Finite Element SA-neg) results for Case 1a are presented.

4th High-Lift Prediction Workshop Case 1a↗

Aeroacoustic Study of a Subscale Large Civil Transport (STAR) Model – Part 2: Validation of Simulated Results

Aeroacoustic measurements of the 26%-scale, semispan Boeing 777-200 Subsonic Transport Aeroacoustic Research (STAR) model tested in the NASA Ames Research Center 40- by 80-foot wind tunnel were used to ascertain the efficacy of high-fidelity simulations to accurately predict noise from the landing gear of large commercial transports. The simulations, conducted with the lattice Boltzmann solver PowerFLOW®, used a digital replica of the STAR model with or without main landing gear deployed and slats and flaps set to their highest deflection angles to represent aircraft during landing. The computations were performed at a Mach number of 0.21, Reynolds number of 8.2 million based on the model mean aerodynamic chord, and other conditions prevalent during the STAR model test. Measured and computed surface pressures were in very good agreement at most port locations on the model, as were global force coefficients, indicating that the simulations captured the impact of main gear deployment on inboard flap loading. Noise sources produced by the main landing gear and high-lift devices were determined via source localization maps generated with CLEAN from synthetic and experimental data. In general, very good agreement between predicted and measured acoustic source location and relative strength was observed in the maps. Comparisons of far-field noise spectra obtained from the CLEAN deconvolution maps showed remarkable agreement between synthetic and experimental broadband noise at low and medium frequencies. Main landing gear sources for model-scale frequencies above 7,000 Hz could not be resolved with the spatial resolution used during the simulations.

airframe noise↗

Modeling the rapid spherical compression of isotropic turbulence

Rapid distortion analysis is used to modify the form of the closure model for the dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy. The modification is such that the evolution of the dissipation rate during a rapid compression is predicted exactly; good agreement between the model prediction and direct simulation data is obtained. Previous closure proposals fail to properly predict the rapid compression case. The reason for the difference between the present and previous models is traced to the fact that previous workers neglected variations of kinematic viscosity.

Coleman, Gary N.↗

Test-particle simulations in increasingly strong turbulence

Quasi-linear theory supposes that the energy in resonant fluctuations is small compared to that in the mean magnetic field. This is evident in the fact that the zeroth-order particle trajectories are helices about a mean field B(sub o) that is spatially uniform over many correlation lengths. However, in the solar wind it is often the case that the fluctuating part of the field is comparable in magnitude to the mean part. It is generally expected that quasi-linear theory remains viable for particles that are in resonance with a region of the fluctuation spectrum having only small energy density, but even so, care must be taken when comparing simulations to theoretical predictions. We have performed a series of test-particle simulations to explore the evolution of ion distributions in turbulent situations with varying levels of magnetic fluctuations. As delta-B/B(sub o) is increased the distinctions among absolute pitch angle (defined relative to B(sub o)), local pitch angle (defined relative to B(x)), and magnetic moment become important, some of them exhibiting periodic sloshing unrelated to the nonadiabatic processes of interest. Comparing and contrasting the various runs illustrates the phenomena that must be considered when the premise underlying quasi-linear theory are relaxed.

Pontius, D. H., Jr.↗

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

aircraft engine simulation↗

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

aircraft engine performance↗