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At least 505 records · Page 28

High Throughput Computational Framework of Materials Properties for Extreme Environments

This project aims to establish a framework capable of efficiently predicting the properties of structural materials for service in harsh environments over a wide range of temperatures and over long periods of time. The approach is to develop and integrate high throughput first-principles calculations in combination with machine learning (ML) methods, perform high throughput CALPHAD (calculations of phase diagrams) modeling, and carry out finite element method (FEM) simulations. Relevant to high temperature service in fossil power system, nickel-based superalloys such as Inconel 740 and Haynes 282 as well as the associated (Ni-Cr-Co)-Al-C-Fe-Mn-Mo-Nb-Si-Ti system, were investigated. The present framework was built on the concept of phase-based property data, in which properties of individual phases are modeled as a function of internal and external independent variables. This project established an open-source infrastructure with the following capabilities: (1) High throughput implementation of first-principles calculations at finite temperatures and variable compositions using both accurate phonon calculations and the efficient Debye model for thermodynamic properties, elastic constants, diffusion coefficients, vacancy formation, stacking and twin faults, and dislocation mobility; i.e., using the developed code DFTTK; (2) Machine learning capabilities to predict the above properties so that the number of first-principles calculations can be significantly reduced; e.g., using the developed code SIPFENN; (3) High throughput CALPHAD modeling of the above properties as a function of temperature and composition using our unique capability based on ESPEI and PyCalphad; (4) New capabilities to predict the stress-strain behavior of individual phases; and (5) New models for tensile strength prediction in common FEM software with the crystal plasticity finite element simulations (CPFEM).

, Ni-based superalloys↗

Utility Experience with Inverter-Based Resource Impacts on Transmission Protection

High penetration of inverter-based resources (IBR) can adversely affect the transmission protection schemes in the area. With the proliferation of IBRs, utilities are finding out that conventional protection schemes are not adequately equipped to protect the electric systems because the existing system has been designed based on the fault current response of conventional rotating-machine-based generators. This report identifies various protection challenges due to IBRs that industry is facing.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Power Module Precursors and Prognostics

This project focuses on finding and utilizing electrical properties (precursors) of power electronic devices and modules whose changes have strong correlations with different modes and levels of degradations in order to realize online and lightweight state of health evaluation and fault diagnosis. Results from this project will contribute to higher safety, reliability, and power density of power electronic components. The approaches mainly include reviewing academic literature and industry practices for state of the art precursor identification and extraction, accelerated life cycles (ALC) of various power modules to create different degradations in-house, and developing techniques for gate-driver-integratable precursor detection circuit. In FY24, the results includes two sets of definitively detected aging precursors (on-state resistance and gate threshold voltage) for two sets of power modules respectively, controlled accelerated lifetime cycling of multiple silicon carbide (SiC) metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) modules, and the development and validation of a gate voltage detection system.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Validating Protection System Behavior with Machine Learning in a Master State Overseer

As power system protection devices continue the widespread transition from analog to digital, they become increasingly intricate. The internal functions and communication between critical grid components must now be significantly more complex to keep up with the demands of the modern smart grid. This brings increased difficulty in maintenance and monitoring, making it harder to identify potential misoperation, power anomalies, and cyber threats. Such issues are often only pinpointed after an exhaustive and costly post-mortem analysis, when a major outage or damage has already occurred. A solution is needed for validating protection systems as they operate, independently evaluating grid state and confirming whether the protection system is behaving accordingly. As opposed to incident response, this acts as a constant verification mechanism that raises a flag when subtler issues are noticed, catching them earlier and preventing larger incidents. This work presents the implementation of such a system, expanding on the prototype developed by the authors in a previous paper. This is accomplished with a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by classifying anomalous events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. Additionally, this system is contextualized within a larger, modular Master State awareness Overseer (MSO) framework, responsible for monitoring, analyzing, and managing an electric grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An RTDS-Based Testbed for Investigating the Impacts of Transmission-Level Disturbances on Solar PV Operation

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources such as solar and wind via power electronic inverters is challenging grid dynamics, as well as grid planning, operation, and protection. Recently, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has reported a series of similar events of the unintended loss of solar generation in Southern California over a large geographic area following the transmission-level disturbances. These events highlight the importance of understanding the characteristics of the transmission-side disturbances propagating into the distribution systems and their impacts on the operation of inverter-based resources. In this paper, a real-time electromagnetic simulation testbed is constructed for real-time electromagnetic simulations to generate realistic transmission-level disturbances and investigate their impacts on the solar PV operation under different fault types and locations, solar penetration levels, and loading levels. Through the simulation analysis and grid strength assessment, it is found that the grid strength at points of integration (POIs) of solar PVs significantly affects the transient stability of solar generators. Particularly, undesirable transient stability events are more likely to occur at the weak POIs following the transmission-level disturbances. Moreover, undesirable transient stability events become severer when the transmission-level disturbance is closer to the weak POIs or the disturbances become more serious. Additionally, the impact of the transmission-level disturbances on the solar PVs at the weak POIs exacerbate with the increasing solar penetration levels and loading levels. Thus, it is important to study and develop new technologies for grid planning, operation, and protection in weak grid conditions to address the emerging issues of integrating the high penetration of solar PVs and other IBRs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Improved Charge Sensing on a SiMOS Double Quantum Dot using a Cryogenic Skipper Readout ASIC (Quandarum)

Major outstanding questions in high-energy physics such as the nature of dark matter and the existence of interactions beyond the standard model require new measurement techniques which are extremely sensitive to minute electromagnetic fields. An array of entangled spin qubits is a promising system for building novel detectors due to its combination of sensitivity and controllability. CMOS-based electron spin qubits, which have demonstrated the operational requirements for fault-tolerant quantum computing [1], offer a particular opportunity due to their compatibility with classical electronics, which allows the leveraging of decades of development of low-noise cryogenic detectors for physics. In this work, we combine a SiMOS double-quantum dot device architecture with a state-of-the-art cryoelectronic readout circuit [2-3] aimed to demonstrate improved charge readout using a single-electron transistor (SET). We identify the design characteristics for an SET that facilitate the use of on-chip classical electronics as a low-power, high-bandwidth first amplification stage and explore opportunities for sensor-readout co-design to minimize noise. This is the first of a series of steps to demonstrate high-fidelity readout of a large array of spin qubit with enough sensitivity to probe processes of interest for the investigation of beyond-standard-model physics.

Quinn, Adam [Fermilab]↗

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Finally, findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deep-learning-based domain adaptation for cavity fault prediction at Jefferson Laboratory

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are the core components of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab, providing high-power electron beams for nuclear physics experiments. The facility comprises 418 SRF cavities, and any fault in these cavities can lead to interruptions in the electron beam supply. Cavity faults are the leading cause of beam trips in CEBAF. Predicting and mitigating those faults before onset can help maintain normal operation. Existing models face challenges in distinguishing between normal and fault signals when changes occur in the underlying time-series data, from changes in control software, operational parameters, or the environment. This work proposes a deep learning domain adaptation model that leverages transfer learning to address fault prediction challenges by improving accuracy. The model is trained and fine-tuned using a dataset collected for faulty and normal operation using a data acquisition system in CEBAF. Our deep learning-based domain adaptation model achieves a prediction accuracy of 89.61% of the fault and normal signals. The developed model effectively predicts normal running signals compared to the baseline approach without domain adaptation. This capacity is essential for the fault prediction task in the CEBAF because of heavily imbalanced data containing vast amounts of normal signals. The model performs well for predicting faults several hundred milliseconds before the fault onset compared to other models where no adaptation is applied. Incorporating deep learning-based domain adaptation techniques will significantly improve the fault prediction performance.

Rahman, Md Monibor [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, V↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS), Task 5.0 Deliverable: Infrastructure Assessment Report

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. This work builds on the initiatives of the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA, DE-FE0031830) that identified nearly 500 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emitted on an annual basis that is not collocated with prospective storage geology (the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S. in this context). This observation suggests costly investments in connective infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) or exploratory well drilling campaigns to identify CO 2 storage opportunities in under explored areas. While not traditionally thought of for saline storage, these studies suggest that storage prospects in the Valley and Ridge Province occur in relatively flat lying structural panels between thrust faults. For the Project OASIS region, available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale. The Project OASIS surface property is owned by a timber and land stewardship company, The Westervelt Company, Inc., who worked with the Project Team to select and prepare adequate sites for geologic assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Attack-resilient algorithms and testbed federation for wide-area protection and control in smart grid

Today’s energy infrastructure is undergoing a massive transformation across all generation, transmission, and distribution systems to provide reliability, efficiency, and sustainability to the power system network. During the past 10 years, there has been a remarkable enhancement in developing close-loop wide-area protection and control (WAPAC) applications, such as automatic generation control (AGC), wide-area protection scheme (WAPS), synchrophasor-based wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), etc., in the energy management system (EMS) to provide an adequate situational awareness to control center operators during physical disturbances and natural events. The rapid digitalization, unencrypted communication, and numerous data-sharing devices have increased digital access points that have exposed the grid network to countless cyberattacks pertinent to the WAPAC cybersecurity. Given the amount of complex grid network coupled with legacy infrastructures, it is untrustworthy to completely rely on information technology (IT)-based conventional security measures to defend against evolving cyberattacks. Hence, there is a compelling need to go beyond the traditional paradigm of ‘security by obscurity’ and ‘bolt-on’ security measures, and develop a suite of innovative security solutions at multiple layers to transform the current “fault-resilient” grid into “fault and attack-resilient” grid of the future. This dissertation specifically focuses on developing application-specific attack-resilient solutions for critical WAPAC applications in the smart grid. The first part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Protection Scheme, presents a cyber-physical attack-resilient system (CPARS) for WAPS, where two anomaly detection methods are proposed to detect multi-level cyberattacks followed by the rules-based intrusion mitigation system (RIMS) to initiate effective mitigation strategies, tailored to these attacks, to restore the normal grid operation after disturbances. The first anomaly detection component, Machine learning-based Anomaly Detection for Centralized WAPS, discusses a novel architecture and methodology for developing a machine-learning-based anomaly detection system (ADS) for the centralized wide-area protection system (CWAPS) by applying the variational mode decomposition (VMD) technique and decision tree (DT) algorithms using cyber logs and synchrophasor measurements. The second component, Multi-Agent-based Anomaly Detection for Decentralized WAPS, presents a two-level hierarchical multi-agent-based decentralized WAPS against the system-aware stealthy cyber-attacks. Finally, for the RIMS, the state transition diagram-based mitigation measures are defined based on the grid operation states and experimental testing and evaluation are presented in a cyber-physical testbed environment. The second part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Voltage Control System, addresses the existing vulnerabilities in the wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), presents the methodology for performing an impact analysis during data integrity attacks, and proposes a data-driven attackresilient system (DARS) by incorporating machine learning-based ADS and rules-based anomaly mitigation system (RAMS) to detect these attacks and provide necessary mitigation actions to maintain the transient voltage stability after disturbances. Finally, the third part, Networked Federation Testbed (NEFTSec) for Smart Grid Cybersecurity, focuses on developing an interconnected federated testbed through a common network like the internet, describes its conceptual architectures, and also presents its design components for experimental testing, validation, and evaluation. Further, it presents the co-simulation interface algorithm (CIA) to facilitate the geographically-dispersed real-time distributed simulation (GD-RTDS) during the cyber-physical federation. In general, this dissertation presents innovative attack-resilient solutions for WAPAC applications that are experimentally tested and evaluated using the PowerCyber testbed and NEFTSec platform to accelerate the transition of state-of-the-art research works to the real-field deployments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HEX 2-piece ID Absorber: Steady and Transient Thermal FEA

Radiation fans from Insertion Devices and Bending Magnets are “trimmed” by various water-cooled absorbers located strategically downstream of those sources. Mostly, the absorber surfaces onto which power is deposited are constructed from Glidcop Al-15 (rarely OFHC copper). On the basis of Tech Note 327 a re-design for improved thermal performance has evolved to a two-piece ID Absorber configuration; one between dipole chamber and quadrupole, another after the sextupole, each with reduced incident angle. The ring’s Active Interlock (AI) system protects against overheating by disabling mis-steered beam within an allotted time. SRP (Synchrotron Radiation Protection) protocol has a limiting maximum allowable temperature of 100*C at any point when subject to mis-steered beam for a fixed period before AI activation. After 0.2 msec, radiation exceeding +/- 0.5mm offset and +/- 0.25 mrad angular error from the HEX SCW will trip in fault. AI specification allows 1.0 msec to fully dump the electron beam.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Introducing the 9500 Node Distribution Test System to Support Advanced Power Applications: An Operations-Focused Approach

The 9500 Node Test System is a representative section of distribution power system model developed as a part of the GridAPPS-D™ project, an effort funded by DOE as a part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) program. The test system was developed to fulfill a growing need to represent the rapidly evolving state of electric distribution systems by combining elements of legacy infrastructure systems, modern feeder topologies, and an anticipated future with smart grid technologies. It also provides a network model capable of supporting the simulation of operational scenarios such as the ones in a utility distribution control center. This test system allows the evaluation of the performance of advanced power applications in real-time, such as one that simulates the operations of an Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS), Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), etc. in a Distribution control center. This model is an extension of the widely used IEEE 8500 Node Test Feeder and is currently being validated to become an IEEE test case to help increase adoption and widespread usage among both academia and industry. It is a full-size model representative of a section of a utility’s distribution system with multiple feeders fed from different substations. The model includes multiple distribution circuits, a sub-transmission system, multiple substations, behind the meter customer rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and multiple utility-scale distributed energy resources. To enable accurate simulations of operational scenarios, the 9500 Node Test System is designed to support procedure-based operations, with the ability to realistically demonstrate switching operations, feeder reconfiguration, adjustment of volt-var control equipment, dispatch of distributed generation, and response to planned and unplanned outages. The 9500 Node Test System includes three radial distribution feeders with 12.3 MVA of average load, consisting of both medium voltage and low voltage equipment each supplied by a different distribution substation. The three distribution feeders are connected to each other through Normally-Open switches which can be closed when needed to simulate restoration scenarios due to a fault. One feeder represents today’s grid with low penetration of customer-side renewables. The second represents a potential future grid with microgrids and 100% renewable penetration. The third has no customer generation resources, a district steam plant, and a utility-scale solar farm. The three diverse circuits were created to allow the simulation of both today’s situation as well as potential future scenarios. All three feeders have customers connected by low-voltage secondary triplex lines. This test system meets all requirements outlined in the report for creating a simulation environment that would enable discussion between key technical stakeholders as well as having the potential to accelerate operational application development and their subsequent testing and integration. The new model is a possible representation of what we believe the distribution grid may look like in the future: a high penetration of renewables, reconfigurable radial and mesh topology, numerous DERs, islanded microgrids, and significantly increased data and measurement density. The system supports both the solution of existing and newer algorithms but also enables the evaluation of applications in a realistic operational environment defined by task oriented procedural steps that represent the interaction between the control center operator and field personnel.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparison and Discussion on Shortcircuit Protections for Silicon-Carbide MOSFET Modules: Desaturation Versus Rogowski Switch-Current Sensor

Survivability of silicon-carbide (SiC) mosfet modules during short circuit (SC) is essential for modern power electronics systems due to large economic implications. SiC mosfet modules exhibit narrow SC withstand times and generally much lower SC robustness than silicon (Si) insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs). This puts a critical concern on their utilization, further stressing the importance of reliable protection. This article presents a comprehensive analysis and discussion on the SiC mosfet module SC protection and performance comparison between conventional desaturation detection, previously used for Si IGBT protection, and Rogowski switch-current sensor (RSCS) detection. In addition, this article presents the experimental design for soft turn-off as a reaction to the SC detection to avoid excessive overshoots during the abrupt turn-off of the SC current. To perform different types of SC with various fault inductances on different temperatures, and for the sake of fair comparison under the same conditions, a gate-driver unit for 1.2 kV SiC mosfet half-bridge modules is developed containing both detection methods. The results demonstrate that both methods are successful in protecting the module in all SC types, with superiority of the RSCS detection and concerns for desaturation detection in high-inductance and high dc-bus voltage SC events.

42 ENGINEERING↗

End-to-end microgrid protection using distributed data-driven methods

This paper introduces an end-to-end microgrid protection framework that offers real-time system monitoring, fault-related decision making, and circuit breaker control. This is achieved through the design of distributed data-driven techniques based on the support vector machine method, where each relay is responsible for distributed data collection, fault detection, fault localization, and fault isolation. Local communication is established among neighboring relays, fostering cooperative fault localization and isolation. This decentralized design not only reduces the computational and communication requirements but also enables the adaptability of each relay under varying operational dynamics. The proposed end-to-end protection framework was validated using MATLAB/Simulink simulations on a 100% renewable microgrid, achieving an accuracy of 93.1% with response time of 0.0523 s, in protecting against a range of fault scenarios that are characterized by various types, locations, impedances, load conditions, photovoltaic power levels, and microgrid operating modes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Helium bubble formation in nickel under in-situ krypton and helium ions dual-beam irradiation

Helium has profound effects on the microstructure and mechanical property of materials used in nuclear power systems. Here to understand the interaction between helium and irradiation-induced defects and its effect on bubble formation, single-beam and dual-beam irradiations on nickel were performed with 16 keV helium ions and 1 MeV krypton ions under in-situ TEM observation. For 1 MeV krypton single-beam irradiation, voids were observed at 600ºC but not at 500ºC and 700ºC. For helium single-beam irradiation at 500ºC, helium moved freely and formed bubble-loop complexes. For dual-beam irradiation at 500ºC, helium was trapped by vacancies and formed bubbles homogeneously. The structure of dislocation loops was also affected by the presence of helium. For krypton single-beam irradiation at 500ºC, the microstructure was {100} periodic wall of faulted and perfect dislocation loops. For dual-beam irradiation at 500ºC, periodic wall was not observed, and dislocation loops were predominantly perfect. For single-beam helium at 500ºC, dislocation loops were produced by athermal process of SIAs ejection or loop punching mechanisms. The interplay between helium and vacancies played an important role on the evolution of helium bubbles and defect microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A review of crosstalk polymorphic circuits and their scalability

Using a control variable, the functionality of Polymorphic circuits can be modified, making them adaptable and useful for reconfiguring circuit behavior — all the way from gate level to system level. State-of-the art polymorphic circuits are based on custom non-linear circuit design or emerging devices such as ambipolar FET, configurable magnetic devices etc. While some of these approaches are inefficient in performance, others involve exotic devices. The Crosstalk computing based polymorphic circuits offer a fresh perspective. In Crosstalk, the interconnect interference between nanoscale metal lines is intentionally engineered to exhibit the programmable Boolean logic behavior. This approach relies on the coupling between metal lines and not on the transistors for computing, resulting in better scalability, security by obscurity, and fault tolerance by reconfiguration. Our novel approach is backed by the mathematical formulation that conveys the rationale to generalize and achieve a wide variety of polymorphic circuits. Our experiments, including design, simulation, and Power Performance Area (PPA) characterization results indicate that crosstalk circuits provide significant improvement in transistor count (about 3x), switching energy (2x), and speed (1.5x) for polymorphic logic circuits. In the best-case scenario, the transistor count reduction is 5x. This paper presents Crosstalk computing’s fundamentals, polymorphism and the scalability aspects to compete/co-exist with CMOS for digital logic implementations below 10 nm. Our scalability study uses Open Source 7 nm PDK, considers all process variation aspects and accommodates worst-case scenarios. The study results for various benchmark circuits show that the Crosstalk technology is a viable alternative to CMOS for digital logic implementations below 10 nm, having 48% density, 57% power, and 10% performance gains over equivalent CMOS counterparts. Finally, we compare Crosstalk Polymorphic Circuit design technique with similar approaches described in related works and discuss its features and constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of Accurate Modeling of Converter Interfaced Generation (CIG) on a Practical Bulk Power System

With increased penetration of converter interfaced generation (CIG) in power systems, it becomes imperative to adequately model them in both steady-state and dynamic simulations. There are several modeling approaches and simulation platforms for CIG. In addition, it is noted that suitability of modeling approaches and models is also dependent on the system conditions. However, their suitability has yet to be systematically analyzed, and this becomes a challenge in the industry without a systemic method. To tackle these challenges, in this paper, we first develop a methodology for identifying the maximum penetration of aggregated rooftop sources that can be represented as negative loads in both the steady state and dynamic analysis. Then we verify the suitability of positive-sequence performance-based model and detailed electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for utility-scale PV plants under different fault conditions. Based on the results, we perform dynamic simulations on a large practical system with both positive-sequence transient stability(TS) and EMT-TS hybrid simulation. Our study shows that positive-sequence performance based PV plant model is more suitable for study cases with faults relatively far away from the point of connection, and that positive-sequence models and TS simulation approach can produce comparable results with reference to EMT-TS hybrid simulation for normally-cleared single-line-to-ground faults, but the inadequacy of positive-sequence based model and simulation approach becomes obvious for prolonged-tripping of unbalanced faults in proximity of the PV plants.

Huang, Qiuhua↗

ON THE LANGUAGE OF RELIABILITY: A SYSTEM ENGINEER PERSPECTIVE

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences and how likely is it to occur. While this definition makes sense in a regulatory based framework to estimate risk associated to power plants (in terms of core damage frequency and large early release frequency), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant. A possible alternate path can start by redefining the word “risk” to a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision making process. Rather than asking how likely an event can occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. We will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring/diagnostic/prognostic centers, a margin can be described and determined for all type of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We will show how to link SSC margin-based reliability models to system reliability models (i.e., fault trees) in order to assess system/plant health and how to perform margin-based system calculations. These calculations are not solved using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed by any PRA code) but, instead, through metric spaces operations (i.e., distance/margin based approach).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗