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NASA NTRS2020

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden–Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users’ expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress.

Annarita Mariotti↗

NASA NTRS1966

X-ray analysis of fatigue damage in copper

A Warren-Averbach x-ray line profile analysis was applied to, broadened x-ray diffraction peaks from copper deformed in fatigue. The copper specimens were fatigued by four point bending at various strain amplitudes, and measurements were made at various fractions of the total fatigue life. The analysis results in an estimation of 1) an average coherently diffracting domain size in a direction normal to the diffracting planes; and 2) a strain distribution function. The strain distribution function is in terms of the root mean square strain, <ϵ^(2)> where ϵ is averaged over a given distance at all points in the diffracting crystals. This rms strain is expressed as a function of averaging distance for a direction normal to the diffracting planes. The rms strains were found to be a function of the fatigue strain amplitude level, increasing with amplitude and reaching a maximum limiting value during the first 2% of the fatigue life. The strains were normally larger in the 4lO0 direction compared to the <111> direction and the absolute values were quite small. These results may be explained by assuming the dislocations are present in the form of dipoles because the lattice strain around a dipole is much less than around single dislocations. Conclusions arrived at in this analysis are in agreement with current theories of fatigue damage in metals. The result that maximum hardening is achieved during the initial few percent of the fatigue life is confirmed by many other investigators using entirely different analytical techniques. It is felt that the structure of the material is changing during this initial hardening stage to an eventual steady state characteristic of the testing conditions. A unique substructure is developed which thereafter persists, and the remainder of the fatigue test is taken up by crack propagation through this substructure until ultimate failure occurs by fracture. The formation of this steady state structure is dependent on the maximum fatigue strain amplitude and on the frequency and temperature of cycling for a particular material.

COPPER↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Mission to Observe Ice in Clouds from Space

To date there have been multiple satellite missions to observe and retrieve cloud top properties and the liquid in, and precipitation from, clouds. There are currently a few missions that attempt to measure cloud ice properties as a byproduct of other observations. However, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. This presentation will describe the Submillimeter-wave InfraRed Ice Cloud Experiment (SIRICE) concept, a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the infrared and submillimeter-wave region (183-874 GHz). If successful, this mission will bridge the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. The brightness temperatures at submillimeter-wave frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. Scientific justification and the SIRICE approach to measuring ice water path and particle size that span a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems will be presented.

Ackerman, S.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electrocatalytic nitrate reduction on rhodium sulfide compared to Pt and Rh in the presence of chloride

Chloride poisoning is a serious problem for the electrocatalytic reduction of aqueous nitrate (NO 3 – ) and improved electrocatalysts are needed. Here we study the electrocatalytic activity of rhodium sulfide supported on carbon (Rh x S y /C) for the reduction of nitrate and compare it against Pt/C and Rh/C in the presence of chloride. Between 0.05–0.15 V vs. RHE, Rh x S y /C has a steady-state nitrate reduction current density in 1 M H 2 SO 4 + 1 M NaNO 3 that is 1.6–5.6 times greater than Rh/C (the most active metal electrocatalyst) and 10–24 times greater than Pt/C. Current densities are decreased by 37% for Rh x S y /C, 62% for Rh/C, and 40% for Pt/C at 0.1 V vs. RHE in the presence of 1 mM chloride. The decrease in nitrate reduction activity for Pt, Rh, and Rh x S y is due to the competitive adsorption of chloride and nitrate on the surface. Density functional theory (DFT) modeling predicts that chloride poisoning will persistently inhibit nitrate reduction on metals due to linear adsorbate scaling relations between nitrate and chloride. DFT calculations and microkinetic modeling of our experimental measurements predict that nitrate converts to nitrite via an H-assisted dissociation mechanism on Pt and direct nitrate dissociation on Rh and Rh x S y . Pristine Rh x S y (i.e., Rh 3 S 4 , Rh 2 S 3 , and Rh 17 S 15 ) terraces are predicted to be inactive toward nitrate reduction. In contrast, sulfur vacancies in Rh 3 S 4 terraces are predicted to be active for nitrate reduction, but also bind chloride strongly. Furthermore, sulfur-defected Rh 3 S 4 rationalize the experimentally observed high activity but moderate chloride poison-resistance of Rh x S y /C for nitrate reduction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2000

Mars Science with Small Aircraft

The Mars program has articulated a strategy to answer the question "Could Life have arisen on Mars?" by pursuing an in depth understanding of the location, persistence and expression of water in the surface and sub-surface environments. In addition to the need to understand the role of water in climate and climate history, detailed understanding of the surface and interior of the planet is required as well. Return of samples from the Martian surface is expected to provide key answers and site selection to maximize the science gleaned from samples becomes critical. Current and past orbital platforms have revealed a surface and planetary history of surprising complexity. While these remote views significantly advance our understanding of the planet it is clear that detailed regional surveys can both answer specific open questions as well as provide initial reconnaissance for subsequent landed operations.

Calvin, W. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Large Source of Cloud Condensation Nuclei from New Particle Formation in the Tropics

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) can affect cloud properties and therefore the Earth’s radiative balance. New particle formation (NPF) from condensable vapours in the free troposphere has been suggested to contribute to CCN, especially in remote, pristine atmospheric regions, but direct evidence is sparse, and the magnitude of this contribution is uncertain. Here we use in-situ aircraft measurements of vertical profiles of aerosol size distributions to present a global-scale survey of NPF occurrence. We observed intense NPF occurring at high altitude in tropical convective regions over both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Together with the results of chemical-transport models, our findings indicate that NPF persists at all longitudes as a global-scale band in the tropical upper troposphere, covering about 40% of the Earth’s surface. Furthermore, we find that this NPF in the tropical upper troposphere is a globally important source of CCN in the lower troposphere, where they can affect cloud properties. Our findings suggest that the production of CCN, as these new particles descend towards the surface, is currently not adequately captured in global models, because they tend to underestimate both the magnitude of tropical upper tropospheric NPF and the subsequent growth to CCN sizes. This has potential implications for cloud albedo and the global radiative balance.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Composite octet baryons in a relativistic mean field description of nuclear and neutron star matter

Here, we examine the properties of composite octet baryons in the nuclear medium and neutron-star matter. The internal quark-diquark structure of the octet baryons and the equations of state of nuclear matter and neutron-star matter in the mean field approximation are described by using the three-flavor Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model as an effective quark theory of quantum chromodynamics. After introducing our model, we first discuss the properties of single baryons and their effective meson exchange interactions in symmetric nuclear matter by using concepts of Fermi-liquid theory. Several model-independent implications of this description are derived and illustrated by numerical results obtained in our model. Second, we extend the model description to high baryon densities and investigate the equation of state of neutron-star matter and the resulting star masses. We find that the so-called hyperon puzzle persists also for the case of composite hadrons. To get more information on this point, we also investigate the role of 6-Fermi and 8-Fermi interactions, in addition to the standard 4-Fermi interactions. The strengths of those higher-order Fermi interactions is determined so as not to spoil the saturation properties of nuclear matter. Among them, an interaction characterized by a product of four-quark current operators plays a special role to stabilize the stars over a large region of central baryon densities, although it has little effect on the maximum star masses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI in Astrophysics: Tackling Domain Shift, Model Robustness and Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This talk will introduce common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery.

Ciprijanvoic, Aleksandra [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Galaxy–Galaxy Strong Lensing Cross Section and the Internal Distribution of Matter in ΛCDM Substructure

Abstract Strong gravitational lensing offers a powerful probe of the detailed distribution of matter in lenses, while magnifying and bringing faint background sources into view. Observed strong lensing by massive galaxy clusters, which are often in complex dynamical states, has also been used to map their dark matter (DM) substructures on smaller scales. Deep high-resolution imaging has revealed the presence of strong lensing events associated with these substructures, namely galaxy-scale sub-halos. However, an inventory of these observed galaxy–galaxy strong lensing (GGSL) events is noted to be discrepant with state-of-the-art ΛCDM simulations. Cluster sub-halos appear to be over-concentrated compared to their simulated counterparts yielding an order-of-magnitude higher value of GGSL. In this paper, we explore the possibility of resolving this observed discrepancy by redistributing the mass within observed cluster sub-halos in ways that are consistent within the ΛCDM paradigm of structure formation. Lensing mass reconstructions from data provide constraints on the mass enclosed within apertures and are agnostic to the detailed mass profile within them. Therefore, as the detailed density profile within cluster sub-halos currently remains unconstrained by data, we are afforded the freedom to redistribute the enclosed mass. We investigate if rearranging the mass to a more centrally concentrated density profile helps alleviate the GGSL discrepancy. We report that refitting cluster sub-halos to the ubiquitous ΛCDM-motivated Navarro–Frenk–White profile, and further modifying them to include significant baryonic components, does not resolve this tension. A resolution to this persisting GGSL discrepancy may require more careful exploration of alternative DM models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS1984

A flying superconducting magnet and cryostat for magnetic suspension of wind-tunnel models

The engineering practicality of a persistent high-field superconducting solenoid cryostat as a magnetic suspension and balance system (MSBS) for wind-tunnel testing of aircraft and missile models is examined. The test apparatus is a simple solenoid of filamentary NbTi superconductor with a cupronickel matrix. The apparatus, with a length-to-diameter ratio of 6 to 1 and a radius of 32 mm, used a 0.25 mm wire with a critical current of 27 A in an external field of 6 T. The total heat inleak of 150 mW was achieved. Helium boiloff rates were tested over a range of operating conditions, including pitch attitudes from 10 deg nose down to 90 deg nose up; the rate was estimated as low, but the aerodynamic acceptability of venting gaseous helium has not been determined. It is shown that the effectiveness of the concept increases with increasing scale, and performance in excess of that of conventional ferromagnets is achievable with reduction in size and costs, and with aptness to transonic wind-tunnel testing. Detailed specifications and schematics are included.

Britcher, C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA's Black Marble Nighttime Lights Product Suite

NASA's Black Marble nighttime lights product suite (VNP46) is available at 500 meters resolution since January 2012 with data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Platform (SNPP). The retrieval algorithm, developed and implemented for routine global processing at NASA's Land Science Investigator-led Processing System (SIPS), utilizes all high-quality, cloud-free, atmospheric-, terrain-, vegetation-, snow-, lunar-, and stray light-corrected radiances to estimate daily nighttime lights (NTL) and other intrinsic surface optical properties. Key algorithm enhancements include: (1) lunar irradiance modeling to resolve non-linear changes in phase and libration; (2) vector radiative transfer and lunar bidirectional surface anisotropic reflectance modeling to correct for atmospheric and BRDF (Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function) effects; (3) geometric-optical and canopy radiative transfer modeling to account for seasonal variations in NTL; and (4) temporal gap-filling to reduce persistent data gaps. Extensive benchmark tests at representative spatial and temporal scales were conducted on the VNP46 time series record to characterize the uncertainties stemming from upstream data sources. Initial validation results are presented together with example case studies illustrating the scientific utility of the products. This includes an evaluation of temporal patterns of NTL dynamics associated with urbanization, socioeconomic variability, cultural characteristics, and displaced populations affected by conflict. Current and planned activities under the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Human Planet Initiative are aimed at evaluating the products at different geographic locations and time periods representing the full range of retrieval conditions.

Suomi-NPP↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-throughput, dynamic, multi-dimensional: an expanding repertoire of plant respiration measurements

A recent burst of technological innovation and adaptation has greatly improved our ability to capture respiration rate data from plant sources. At the tissue level, several independent respiration measurement options are now available, each with distinct advantages and suitability, including high-throughput sampling capacity. These advancements facilitate the inclusion of respiration rate data into large-scale biological studies such as genetic screens, ecological surveys, crop breeding trials, and multi-omics molecular studies. As a result, our understanding of the correlations of respiration with other biological and biochemical measurements is rapidly increasing. Difficult questions persist concerning the interpretation and utilization of respiration data; concepts such as allocation of respiration to growth versus maintenance, the unnecessary or inefficient use of carbon and energy by respiration, and predictions of future respiration rates in response to environmental change are all insufficiently grounded in empirical data. However, we emphasize that new experimental designs involving novel combinations of respiration rate data with other measurements will flesh-out our current theories of respiration. Furthermore, dynamic recordings of respiration rate, which have long been used at the scale of mitochondria, are increasingly being used at larger scales of size and time to reflect processes of cellular signal transduction and physiological response to the environment. Herein, we also highlight how respiratory methods are being better adapted to different plant tissues including roots and seeds, which have been somewhat neglected historically.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observing fish interactions with marine energy turbines using acoustic cameras

Abstract Marine current energy converters such as tidal and riverine turbines have the potential to provide reliable, clean power. The risk of collision of fishes with marine energy turbines is not yet well understood, in part due to the challenges associated with observing fish at turbine sites. Turbidity and light availability can limit the effectiveness of optical sensors like video cameras, motivating the use of acoustic cameras for this task. However, challenges persist in collecting and interpreting data acquired from acoustic cameras. Given the limited number of turbine deployments to date, it is prudent to draw on the application of acoustic cameras to monitor fish in other scenarios. This article synthesizes their use for other fisheries applications to inform best practices and set realistic expectations for the results of acoustic camera monitoring at turbine sites. We discuss six key tasks performed with acoustic cameras: detecting objects, identifying objects as fish, counting fish, measuring fish, classifying fish taxonomically and analysing fish behavior. Specific challenges to monitoring fish at turbine sites are discussed. This article is intended to serve as a reference for researchers, regulators and marine energy developers on effective use of acoustic cameras to monitor fish at turbine sites. The studies detailed in this article provide evidence that, in some scenarios, acoustic cameras can be used to inform the risk of fish collision with marine energy turbines but doing so requires careful study design and data processing.

Cotter, Emma↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous and Staggered Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Coinfection of Cattle

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) field studies have suggested the occurrence of simultaneous infection of individual hosts by multiple virus strains; however, the pathogenesis of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) coinfections is largely unknown. In the current study, cattle were experimentally exposed to two FMDV strains of different serotypes (O and A). One cohort was simultaneously infected with both viruses, while additional cohorts were initially infected with FMDV A and subsequently superinfected with FMDV O after 21 or 35 days. Coinfections were confirmed during acute infection, with both viruses concurrently detected in blood, lesions, and secretions. Staggered exposures resulted in overlapping infections as convalescent animals with persistent subclinical FMDV infection were superinfected with a heterologous virus. Staggering virus exposure by 21 days conferred clinical protection in six of eight cattle, which were subclinically infected following the heterologous virus exposure. This effect was transient, as all animals superinfected at 35 days post-initial infection developed fulminant FMD. The majority of cattle maintained persistent infection with one of the two viruses while clearing the other. Analysis of viral genomes confirmed interserotypic recombination events within 10 days in the upper respiratory tract of five superinfected animals from which the dominant genomes contained the capsid coding regions of the O virus and nonstructural coding regions of the A virus. In contrast, there were no dominant recombinant genomes detected in samples from simultaneously coinfected cattle. These findings inculpate persistently infected carriers as potential FMDV mixing vessels in which novel strains may rapidly emerge through superinfection and recombination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Analysing the Advantages of High Temporal Resolution Geostationary MSG SEVIRI Data Compared to Polar Operational Environmental Satellite Data for Land Surface Monitoring in Africa

Since 1972, satellite remote sensing of the environment has been dominated by polar-orbiting sensors providing useful data for monitoring the earth s natural resources. However their observation and monitoring capacity are inhibited by daily to monthly looks for any given ground surface which often is obscured by frequent and persistent cloud cover creating large gaps in time series measurements. The launch of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite into geostationary orbit has opened new opportunities for land surface monitoring. The Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument on-board MSG with an imaging capability every 15 minutes which is substantially greater than any temporal resolution that can be obtained from existing polar operational environmental satellites (POES) systems currently in use for environmental monitoring. Different areas of the African continent were affected by droughts and floods in 2008 caused by periods of abnormally low and high rainfall, respectively. Based on the effectiveness of monitoring these events from Earth Observation (EO) data the current analyses show that the new generation of geostationary remote sensing data can provide higher temporal resolution cloud-free (less than 5 days) measurements of the environment as compared to existing POES systems. SEVIRI MSG 5-day continental scale composites will enable rapid assessment of environmental conditions and improved early warning of disasters for the African continent such as flooding or droughts. The high temporal resolution geostationary data will complement existing higher spatial resolution polar-orbiting satellite data for various dynamic environmental and natural resource applications of terrestrial ecosystems.

Fensholt, R.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Effects of an anti-G suit on the hemodynamic and renal responses to positive /+Gz/ acceleration

The effects of the currently used U.S. Air Force (CSU-12/P) anti-G suit on renal function during positive radial acceleration (+Gz) were assessed in seven normal male subjects in balance on a 200 meq sodium diet. Following suit inflation in the seated position, +2.0 Gz for 30 min resulted in a decrease in the rate of sodium excretion from 125 plus or minus 19 to 60 plus or minus 14 microeq/min, which persisted during a 25-min recovery period. Fractional excretion of sodium also decreased significantly during +Gz. The magnitude of the antinatriuresis was indistinguishable from that observed during +Gz without suit inflation. In contrast to the antinatriuresis observed during centrifugation without suit, however, the antinatriuresis with suit was mediated primarily by an enhanced tubular reabsorption of sodium.

Shubrooks, S. J., Jr.↗