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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Proceedings of a workshop on Differences Between Antarctic and Non-Antarctic Meteorites

The known facts, together with new research results are reviewed, in order to examine apparent differences between the Antarctic and non-Antarctic populations. In view of the statistically significant number of Antarctic meteorites, and the existence of rare or previously unknown types of meteorites among the Antarctic meteorite collection, the question was really not so much whether there are differences, but to define which ones are significant and what their origin is. Two main causes for the possible differences have been suggested previously, namely differences in the meteorite parent populations and secondary effects (e.g., weathering). The workshop was structured to contain sessions on chemical, isotopic, petrological, and mineralogical studies of meteorites from the two collections; terrestrial age determinations; discussions on mass frequency distributions; relative abundances of meteorite types; and terrestrial meteorite flux rates and their possible changes with time.

Koeberl, Christian↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Effects of Gravity on Wrinkled Laminar Flames

The effects of gravity are significant to the dynamics of idealized unconfined open premixed flames. Moderate to low turbulence Reynolds number flames, i.e., wrinkled laminar flames, of various unconfined geometries have been used extensively for investigating fundamental processes of turbulent flame propagation and to validate theoretical models. Without the wall constraints, the flames are free to expand and interact with surrounding ambient air. The flow field in which the flame exists is determined by a coupling of burner geometry, flame orientation and the gravity field. These complex interactions raise serious questions regarding the validity of comparing the experimental data of open flames with current theoretical and numerical models that do not include the effects of gravity nor effects of the larger aerodynamic flowfield. Therefore, studies of wrinkled laminar flame in microgravity are needed for a better understanding of the role of gravity on flame characteristics such as the orientation, mean aerodynamics stretch, flame wrinkle size and burning rate. Our approach to characterize and quantify turbulent flame structures under microgravity is to exploit qualitative and quantitative flow visualization techniques coupled with video recording and computer controlled image analysis technologies. The experiments will be carried out in the 2.2 second drop tower at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The longest time scales of typical wrinkled laminar flames in the geometries considered here are in the order of 10 msec. Hence, the duration of the drop is sufficient to obtain the amount of statistical data necessary for characterize turbulent flame structures.

Kostiuk, Larry W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

System Synthesis in Preliminary Aircraft Design using Statistical Methods

This paper documents an approach to conceptual and preliminary aircraft design in which system synthesis is achieved using statistical methods, specifically design of experiments (DOE) and response surface methodology (RSM). These methods are employed in order to more efficiently search the design space for optimum configurations. In particular, a methodology incorporating three uses of these techniques is presented. First, response surface equations are formed which represent aerodynamic analyses, in the form of regression polynomials, which are more sophisticated than generally available in early design stages. Next, a regression equation for an overall evaluation criterion is constructed for the purpose of constrained optimization at the system level. This optimization, though achieved in a innovative way, is still traditional in that it is a point design solution. The methodology put forward here remedies this by introducing uncertainty into the problem, resulting a solutions which are probabilistic in nature. DOE/RSM is used for the third time in this setting. The process is demonstrated through a detailed aero-propulsion optimization of a high speed civil transport. Fundamental goals of the methodology, then, are to introduce higher fidelity disciplinary analyses to the conceptual aircraft synthesis and provide a roadmap for transitioning from point solutions to probabalistic designs (and eventually robust ones).

DeLaurentis, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS1996

System Synthesis in Preliminary Aircraft Design Using Statistical Methods

This paper documents an approach to conceptual and early preliminary aircraft design in which system synthesis is achieved using statistical methods, specifically Design of Experiments (DOE) and Response Surface Methodology (RSM). These methods are employed in order to more efficiently search the design space for optimum configurations. In particular, a methodology incorporating three uses of these techniques is presented. First, response surface equations are formed which represent aerodynamic analyses, in the form of regression polynomials, which are more sophisticated than generally available in early design stages. Next, a regression equation for an Overall Evaluation Criterion is constructed for the purpose of constrained optimization at the system level. This optimization, though achieved in an innovative way, is still traditional in that it is a point design solution. The methodology put forward here remedies this by introducing uncertainty into the problem, resulting in solutions which are probabilistic in nature. DOE/RSM is used for the third time in this setting. The process is demonstrated through a detailed aero-propulsion optimization of a High Speed Civil Transport. Fundamental goals of the methodology, then, are to introduce higher fidelity disciplinary analyses to the conceptual aircraft synthesis and provide a roadmap for transitioning from point solutions to probabilistic designs (and eventually robust ones).

DeLaurentis, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2003

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Determining the Optimal Number of Clusters with the Clustergram

Cluster analysis aids research in many different fields, from business to biology to aerospace. It consists of using statistical techniques to group objects in large sets of data into meaningful classes. However, this process of ordering data points presents much uncertainty because it involves several steps, many of which are subject to researcher judgment as well as inconsistencies depending on the specific data type and research goals. These steps include the method used to cluster the data, the variables on which the cluster analysis will be operating, the number of resulting clusters, and parts of the interpretation process. In most cases, the number of clusters must be guessed or estimated before employing the clustering method. Many remedies have been proposed, but none is unassailable and certainly not for all data types. Thus, the aim of current research for better techniques of determining the number of clusters is generally confined to demonstrating that the new technique excels other methods in performance for several disparate data types. Our research makes use of a new cluster-number-determination technique based on the clustergram: a graph that shows how the number of objects in the cluster and the cluster mean (the ordinate) change with the number of clusters (the abscissa). We use the features of the clustergram to make the best determination of the cluster-number.

Fluegemann, Joseph K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The NuSTAR Extragalactic Survey: A First Sensitive Look at the High-Energy Cosmic X-Ray Background Population

We report on the first 10 identifications of sources serendipitously detected by the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) to provide the first sensitive census of the cosmic X-ray background source population at approximately greater than 10 keV. We find that these NuSTAR-detected sources are approximately 100 times fainter than those previously detected at approximately greater than 10 keV and have a broad range in redshift and luminosity (z = 0.020-2.923 and L(sub 10-40 keV) approximately equals 4 × 10(exp 41) - 5 × 10(exp 45) erg per second; the median redshift and luminosity are z approximately equal to 0.7 and L(sub 10-40 keV) approximately equal to 3 × 10(exp 44) erg per second, respectively. We characterize these sources on the basis of broad-band approximately equal to 0.5 - 32 keV spectroscopy, optical spectroscopy, and broad-band ultraviolet-to-mid-infrared spectral energy distribution analyses. We find that the dominant source population is quasars with L(sub 10-40 keV) greater than 10(exp 44) erg per second, of which approximately 50% are obscured with N(sub H) approximately greater than 10(exp 22) per square centimeters. However, none of the 10 NuSTAR sources are Compton thick (N(sub H) approximately greater than 10(exp 24) per square centimeters) and we place a 90% confidence upper limit on the fraction of Compton-thick quasars (L(sub 10-40 keV) greater than 10(exp 44) erg per second) selected at approximately greater than 10 keV of approximately less than 33% over the redshift range z = 0.5 - 1.1. We jointly fitted the rest-frame approximately equal to 10-40 keV data for all of the non-beamed sources with L(sub 10-40 keV) greater than 10(exp 43) erg per second to constrain the average strength of reflection; we find R less than 1.4 for gamma = 1.8, broadly consistent with that found for local active galactic nuclei (AGNs) observed at approximately greater than 10 keV. We also constrain the host-galaxy masses and find a median stellar mass of approximately 10(exp 11) solar mass, a factor approximately 5 times higher than the median stellar mass of nearby high-energy selected AGNs, which may be at least partially driven by the order of magnitude higher X-ray luminosities of the NuSTAR sources. Within the low source-statistic limitations of our study, our results suggest that the overall properties of the NuSTAR sources are broadly similar to those of nearby high-energy selected AGNs but scaled up in luminosity and mass.

Spectroscopic↗
NASA NTRS2000

A statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm

We formulate a statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm in which the circadian signal is modeled as a van der Pol oscillator, the thermoregulatory response is represented as a first-order autoregressive process, and the evoked effect of activity is modeled with a function specific for each circadian protocol. The new model directly links differential equation-based simulation models and harmonic regression analysis methods and permits statistical analysis of both static and dynamical properties of the circadian pacemaker from experimental data. We estimate the model parameters by using numerically efficient maximum likelihood algorithms and analyze human core-temperature data from forced desynchrony, free-run, and constant-routine protocols. By representing explicitly the dynamical effects of ambient light input to the human circadian pacemaker, the new model can estimate with high precision the correct intrinsic period of this oscillator ( approximately 24 h) from both free-run and forced desynchrony studies. Although the van der Pol model approximates well the dynamical features of the circadian pacemaker, the optimal dynamical model of the human biological clock may have a harmonic structure different from that of the van der Pol oscillator.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗
NASA NTRS2004

Reduced-Order Blade Mistuning Analysis Techniques Developed for the Robust Design of Engine Rotors

The primary objective of this research program is to develop vibration analysis tools, design tools, and design strategies to significantly improve the safety and robustness of turbine engine rotors. Bladed disks in turbine engines always feature small, random blade-to-blade differences, or mistuning. Mistuning can lead to a dramatic increase in blade forced-response amplitudes and stresses. Ultimately, this results in high-cycle fatigue, which is a major safety and cost concern. In this research program, the necessary steps will be taken to transform a state-of-the-art vibration analysis tool, the Turbo-Reduce forced-response prediction code, into an effective design tool by enhancing and extending the underlying modeling and analysis methods. Furthermore, novel techniques will be developed to assess the safety of a given design. In particular, a procedure will be established for using eigenfrequency curve veerings to identify "danger zones" in the operating conditions--ranges of rotational speeds and engine orders in which there is a great risk that the rotor blades will suffer high stresses. This work also will aid statistical studies of the forced response by reducing the necessary number of simulations. Finally, new strategies for improving the design of rotors will be pursued. Several methods will be investigated, including the use of intentional mistuning patterns to mitigate the harmful effects of random mistuning, and the modification of disk stiffness to avoid reaching critical values of interblade coupling in the desired operating range. Recent research progress is summarized in the following paragraphs. First, significant progress was made in the development of the component mode mistuning (CMM) and static mode compensation (SMC) methods for reduced-order modeling of mistuned bladed disks (see the following figure). The CMM method has been formalized and extended to allow a general treatment of mistuning. In addition, CMM allows individual mode mistuning, which accounts for the realistic effects of local variations in blade properties that lead to different mistuning values for different mode types (e.g., mistuning of the first torsion mode versus the second flexural mode). The accuracy and efficiency of the CMM method and the corresponding Turbo-Reduce code were validated for an example finite element model of a bladed disk.

Min, James B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Attitude Determination

All spacecraft require attitude determination at some level of accuracy. This can be a very coarse requirement of tens of degrees, in order to point solar arrays at the sun, or a very fine requirement in the milliarcsecond range, as required by Hubble Space Telescope. A toolbox of attitude determination methods, applicable across this wide range, has been developed over the years. There have been many advances in the thirty years since the publication of Reference, but the fundamentals remain the same. One significant change is that onboard attitude determination has largely superseded ground-based attitude determination, due to the greatly increased power of onboard computers. The availability of relatively inexpensive radiation-hardened microprocessors has led to the development of "smart" sensors, with autonomous star trackers being the first spacecraft application. Another new development is attitude determination using interferometry of radio signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation. This article reviews both the classic material and these newer developments at approximately the level of, with emphasis on. methods suitable for use onboard a spacecraft. We discuss both "single frame" methods that are based on measurements taken at a single point in time, and sequential methods that use information about spacecraft dynamics to combine the information from a time series of measurements.

Markley, F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Implementation of ILLIAC 4 algorithms for multispectral image interpretation

Research has focused on the design and partial implementation of a comprehensive ILLIAC software system for computer-assisted interpretation of multispectral earth resources data such as that now collected by the Earth Resources Technology Satellite. Research suggests generally that the ILLIAC 4 should be as much as two orders of magnitude more cost effective than serial processing computers for digital interpretation of ERTS imagery via multivariate statistical classification techniques. The potential of the ARPA Network as a mechanism for interfacing geographically-dispersed users to an ILLIAC 4 image processing facility is discussed.

Ray, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A study to define an in-flight dynamics measurement and data applications program for space shuttle payloads

Data measurement and interpretation techniques were defined for application to the first few space shuttle flights, so that the dynamic environment could be sufficiently well established to be used to reduce the cost of future payloads through more efficient design and environmental test techniques. It was concluded that: (1) initial payloads must be given comprehensive instrumentation coverage to obtain detailed definition of acoustics, vibration, and interface loads, (2) analytical models of selected initial payloads must be developed and verified by modal surveys and flight measurements, (3) acoustic tests should be performed on initial payloads to establish realistic test criteria for components and experiments in order to minimize unrealistic failures and retest requirements, (4) permanent data banks should be set up to establish statistical confidence in the data to be used, (5) a more unified design/test specification philosophy is needed, (6) additional work is needed to establish a practical testing technique for simulation of vehicle transients.

Rader, W. P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Information theory lateral density distribution for Earth inferred from global gravity field

Information Theory Inference, better known as the Maximum Entropy Method, was used to infer the lateral density distribution inside the Earth. The approach assumed that the Earth consists of indistinguishable Maxwell-Boltzmann particles populating infinitesimal volume elements, and followed the standard methods of statistical mechanics (maximizing the entropy function). The GEM 10B spherical harmonic gravity field coefficients, complete to degree and order 36, were used as constraints on the lateral density distribution. The spherically symmetric part of the density distribution was assumed to be known. The lateral density variation was assumed to be small compared to the spherically symmetric part. The resulting information theory density distribution for the cases of no crust removed, 30 km of compensated crust removed, and 30 km of uncompensated crust removed all gave broad density anomalies extending deep into the mantle, but with the density contrasts being the greatest towards the surface (typically + or 0.004 g cm 3 in the first two cases and + or - 0.04 g cm 3 in the third). None of the density distributions resemble classical organized convection cells. The information theory approach may have use in choosing Standard Earth Models, but, the inclusion of seismic data into the approach appears difficult.

Rubincam, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Dynamic mechanical characterization of cure of a polyimide-graphite fiber composite (PMR 15/Celion 6000)

Dynamic mechanical studies of thermosetting PMR 15 polyimide/Celion 6000 composites were used to characterize cure behavior. Variation in composite shear modulus with cure time for laminates partially cured under 3.45 MPa pressure was compared with that of laminates fully cured under pressure to select a partially cured system whose behavior corresponded with that of the pressure-cured composites. An empirical kinetic model was developed that relates relative composite shear moduli to cure time and temperature. This model, coupled with standard statistical techniques, was used in the determination of an overall activation energy, E = 145 kj/mole (35 kcal/mole) and order of reaction, n, for the cure reaction(s). The empirical relationship defining dynamic modulus as a function of time and temperature remained linear well into the glassy region. Changes in dynamic glass-transition temperature and in the breadth of the transition peaks with cure time are discussed. Shear modulus and damping were found to be more sensitive measures of relative extent of cure than Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.

Hurwitz, F. I.↗