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Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)
A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.
Generative Ensemble Regression: Learning Particle Dynamics from Observations of Ensembles with Physics-informed Deep Generative Models
Here, we propose a new method for inferring the governing stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) by observing particle ensembles at discrete and sparse time instants, i.e., multiple “snapshots.” Particle coordinates at a single time instant, possibly noisy or truncated, are recorded in each snapshot but are unpaired across the snapshots. By training a physics-informed generative model that generates “fake” sample paths, we aim to fit the observed particle ensemble distributions with a curve in the probability measure space, which is induced from the inferred particle dynamics. We employ different metrics to quantify the differences between distributions, e.g., the sliced Wasserstein distances and the adversarial losses in generative adversarial networks. We refer to this method as generative “ensemble-regression” (GER), in analogy to the classic “point-regression,” where we infer the dynamics by performing regression in the Euclidean space. We illustrate the GER by learning the drift and diffusion terms of particle ensembles governed by SODEs with Brownian motions and Lévy processes up to 100 dimensions. We also discuss how to treat cases with noisy or truncated observations. Apart from systems consisting of independent particles, we also tackle nonlocal interacting particle systems with unknown interaction potential parameters by constructing a physics-informed loss function. Finally, we investigate scenarios of paired observations and discuss how to reduce the dimensionality in such cases by proving a convergence theorem that provides theoretical support.
Galaxy cluster matter profiles - I. Self-similarity, mass calibration, and observable-mass relation validation employing cluster mass posteriors
We present a study of the weak lensing inferred matter profiles ΔΣ(R) of 698 South Pole Telescope (SPT) thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect (tSZE) selected and MCMF optically confirmed galaxy clusters in the redshift range 0.25 < z < 0.94 that have associated weak gravitational lensing shear profiles from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Rescaling these profiles to account for the mass dependent size and the redshift dependent density produces average rescaled matter profiles ΔΣ(R/R200c)/(ρcritR200c) with a lower dispersion than the unscaled ΔΣ(R) versions, indicating a significant degree of self-similarity. Galaxy clusters from hydrodynamical simulations also exhibit matter profiles that suggest a high degree of self-similarity, with RMS variation among the average rescaled matter profiles with redshift and mass falling by a factor of approximately six and 23, respectively, compared to the unscaled average matter profiles. We employed this regularity in a new Bayesian method for weak lensing mass calibration that employs the so-called cluster mass posterior P(M200|ζ̂, λ̂, z), which describes the individual cluster masses given their tSZE (ζ̂) and optical (λ̂, z) observables. This method enables simultaneous constraints on richness λ-mass and tSZE detection significance ζ-mass relations using average rescaled cluster matter profiles. We validated the method using realistic mock datasets and present observable-mass relation constraints for the SPT×DES sample, where we constrained the amplitude, mass trend, redshift trend, and intrinsic scatter. Our observable-mass relation results are in agreement with the mass calibration derived from the recent cosmological analysis of the SPT×DES data based on a cluster-by-cluster lensing calibration. Our new mass calibration technique offers a higher efficiency when compared to the single cluster calibration technique. We present new validation tests of the observable-mass relation that indicate the underlying power-law form and scatter are adequate to describe the real cluster sample but that also suggest a redshift variation in the intrinsic scatter of the λ-mass relation may offer a better description. In addition, the average rescaled matter profiles offer high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) constraints on the shape of real cluster matter profiles, which are in good agreement with available hydrodynamical ΛCDM simulations. This high S/N profile contains information about baryon feedback, the collisional nature of dark matter, and potential deviations from general relativity.Key words: gravitational lensing: weak / galaxies: clusters: general / large-scale structure of Universe
Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake
ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.
The Ductility of 49Fe-49Co-2V Soft Magnetic Alloy Bar: Surface Effects and Test Methods
The tensile ductility of 49Fe-49Co-2V (Hiperco® 50A) bar was investigated in both as-received and heat-treated conditions. The as-received/machined specimens exhibit very low ductility compared to samples where heat treatment was the final step prior to testing. Microstructural characterization showed that internal residual strain from bar processing and, most importantly, surface machining damage, cause lower elongation in the as-received material. Because fracture of this intermetallic alloy initiates at the surface, it is particularly susceptible to surface machining damage, i.e., the near-surface region has already exhausted most of its ability to accumulate tensile strain. During heat treatment, the internal residual strain and near-surface machining damage are eliminated and ductility is improved, despite a higher degree of crystallographic ordering in the heat-treated condition (which typically lowers ductility). Furthermore, if machining is again performed after heat treatment, the material again exhibits brittle behavior, even with only light touch-up machining passes. Here, in this work, methods of tensile strain measurement were investigated, namely conventional knife-edge extensometry and noncontact digital image correlation (DIC) on heat-treated material. For clip-on knife-edge extensometry, the range of failure strain was 2.5-5.5% for heat-treated Hiperco. For noncontact methods, ductility up to 7% was observed. The results highlight the tendency for the alloy to fail at surface imperfections, even those produced by application of the extensometer itself. Noncontact laser extensometry is recommended for determining the intrinsic ductility of the alloy. A method of laser surface modification was developed which increased ductility by ~ 100% compared to unmodified samples. The high cooling rates achieved during laser surface processing can bypass the ordering reaction and produce a ductile disordered structure at the surface that exhibits ductile fracture characteristics.
SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics
We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.
Data Assimilation Methods for Dynamical Systems [Slides]
Models are not perfect. Observations are not perfect. Data assimilation combines these sources of imperfect information to provide better information. The outline for this presentation is as follows: Introduction to Data Assimilation Variational Methods 3 Kalman Filter Methods Lorenz 96 EnKF Example Data Assimilation Examples
Quantum Monte Carlo Methods for Astrophysical Applications
In recent years, new astrophysical observations have provided a wealth of exciting input for nuclear physics. For example, the observations of two-solar-mass neutron stars put strong constraints on possible phase transitions to exotic phases in strongly interacting matter at high densities. Furthermore, the recent observation of a neutron-star merger in both the electromagnetic spectrum and gravitational waves has provided compelling evidence that neutron-star mergers are an important site for the production of extremely neutron-rich nuclei within the r-process. In the coming years, an abundance of new observations is expected, which will continue to provide crucial constraints on the nuclear physics of these events. To reliably analyze such astrophysical observations and extract information on nuclear physics, it is very important that a consistent approach to nuclear systems is used. Such an approach consists of a precise and accurate method to solve the nuclear many-body problem in nuclei and nuclear matter, combined with modern nuclear Hamiltonians that allow to estimate the theoretical uncertainties. Quantum Monte Carlo methods are ideally suited for such an approach and have been successfully used to describe atomic nuclei and nuclear matter. In this contribution, I will present a detailed description of Quantum Monte Carlo methods focusing on the application of these methods to astrophysical problems. In particular, I will discuss how to use Quantum Monte Carlo methods to describe nuclear matter of relevance to the physics of neutron stars.
Data–Driven Velocity Model Evaluation Using K–Means Clustering
In this work, we develop a data-driven clustering method to evaluate a velocity model using surface wave velocity dispersion. This is done by first computing theoretical dispersion curves for 1-D velocity profiles of all the grid locations and then splitting the resulting dispersion curves into a certain number of groups via the K-means clustering. The observed dispersion curves are also clustered following the same procedure and the velocity model is assessed by comparing the spatial patterns obtained for the observed and synthetic data sets. The method is applied to evaluate two community velocity models in southern California, CVM-S4.26 and CVM-H15.1, using phase velocity maps derived for 3–16 s Rayleigh waves. We found a good correlation in the spatial distribution of clusters between the result of CVM-S4.26 and that of the observed data, suggesting that the CVM-S4.26 fits the observed dispersion maps better than the CVM-H15.1 in terms of features extracted from the clustering analysis.
A Digital Imaging Method for Evaluating the Kinetics of Vapochromic Response
This work describes the use of a cell phone camera and the L*a*b method (color space specified by the International Commission on Illumination) to characterize the color change in different vapochromic systems. In this study we have developed a semi-automatic color change analysis software that digitally analyzes images (e.g., video frames) collected while a vapochromic material is absorbing vapor. The advantages of using this method, as compared to reflectance spectroscopy or transmission spectroscopy through a thin film, include low cost, convenience, portability, ease of sample preparation, the absence of need for specialized equipment, and the ease of simultaneously collecting data on different samples under identical conditions. In addition, this method arguably provides direct insight into what a human would observe when monitoring these color changes by eye. Limitations of the method also are discussed in this paper.
Inferring small-sample-reactivity worth from oscillation experiment with auto-corrected local flux
To estimate reactivity changes as a function of time from the signal of detectors count rates, one usually uses point kinetic equations. However, when detectors are located inside the core, it is often necessary to compute a correction factor to account for the flux-shape deformation (i.e. the change of detector efficiency that may have been induced by neutron absorbers movements). Various simulation methods have been developed depending on transients observed. They range from the resolution of static equations up to full-time-dependent neutron transport in 3D. However, those methods require high computational-cost calculations of local reaction rates that rely on nuclear data evaluations. Therefore, a 'measured' reactivity is never determined through pure measurements. Taking advantage of the known oscillation movement of a small sample at the center of the MINERVE reactor, the innovative algorithm presented in this paper derives the correction factor needed to get no time drift on reactivity steps. Derived correction factors are in good agreement with those obtained independently with TRIPOLI-4 through sensitivity analysis. Low sensitivity to the sample composition and moderate sensitivity to the detectors position reinforce the reliability of those results. This application paves the way to almost pure nuclear data reactivity measurements. (authors)
A novel approach to increase accuracy in remotely sensed evapotranspiration through basin water balance and flux tower constraints
Remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration (RSET) products capture the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) from field to basin scales with unprecedented details. However, their accuracy varies across RSET estimation methods and diverse hydroclimate regions. While ET modeling efforts to account for biophysical processes and controlling parameters have made good progress in recent years, a parallel approach of integrating in-situ ET with RSET could reduce biases in RSET products. Basin water balance ET (WBET) and flux tower ET are widely applied to evaluate RSET accuracy, yet such ET measurements are rarely used for RSET bias corrections, especially for large area applications. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach: the water balance equivalence (WABE) method, which generates spatially continuous WBET for correcting biases in RSET products. The WABE method computes synthetic WBET by integrating observed WBET and flux tower-derived FLUXCOM ET, which fills the spatial gaps of observed WBET and generates a spatially continuous WBET dataset. Synthetic WBET (2002–2015 annual average) of eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins across the conterminous United States (CONUS), constituting 44 % (887 out of 2035 basins) of CONUS basins, was determined within 2.0 % (RMSE = 12 %) of observed WBET at CONUS and between 1–12 % (RMSE = 3–33 %) across 18 regions in CONUS. With WABE-based bias corrections, the overall annual bias of RSET decreased from 10 % (RMSE = 34 %) to 6 % (RMSE = 26 %) across 37 flux tower sites. The WABE method offers a new approach for RSET accuracy improvement and shows great promise for large area implementations with a potential to yield substantial benefits for building accurate basin water budgets and water management decisions.
Two-step spin-coating of vacancy-ordered double perovskites enables growth of thin films for electronic devices
Vacancy-ordered double perovskites (VODPs), such as Cs 2 TeX 6 (X = Cl, Br, I), are lead-free alternatives to conventional metal-halide perovskites (MHPs). One limitation of VODPs is the lack of processes to form thin films relevant for physical characterization and electronic devices. A two-step spin-coating method was developed for synthesizing high-quality films of Cs 2 TeBr 6 . Independently depositing CsBr and TeBr 4 enables high precursor concentrations and control over crystallization kinetics. By optimizing the spin-coating parameters, conversion of precursors to phase pure films was observed using structural and surface characterization methods. The growth of mixed-halide systems was investigated using alternative salts including CsCl and CsI. The formation of halide alloys was found to depend on the existence of routes to byproducts. Lastly, single carrier diodes of Cs2TeBr6 were designed following valence band characterization with photoelectron spectroscopy. Temperature-dependent space-charge-limited current measurements revealed that transport occurs by hopping and the hole mobility is 3.2 × 10 −5 cm 2 V −1 s −1 near room temperature. As a result, the insights from the 2-step procedure provide a pathway towards making semiconducting devices from VODPs.
Data-Centric Approach to Capture Non-Polynomial Nonlinear Dynamics
We propose an analytical construction of observable functions in the extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. EDMD is a numerical method for approximating the spectral properties of the Koopman operator. The choice of observable functions is fundamental for applying EDMD to nonlinear problems arising in systems and control. Existing methods either start from a set of dictionary functions and look for the subset that best fits the underlying nonlinear dynamics or rely on machine learning algorithms to “learn” observable functions. Conversely, in this paper, we start from the dynamical system model and lift it through the Lie derivatives, rendering it into a polynomial form. This proposed transformation into a polynomial form is exact and provides an adequate set of observable functions. The strength of the proposed approach is its applicability to a broader class of nonlinear dynamical systems, particularly those with nonpolynomial functions and compositions thereof. Moreover, it retains the physical interpretability of the underlying dynamical system and can be readily integrated into existing numerical libraries. We demonstrate the proposed approach with an application to electric power systems. The modeled system consists of a single generator connected to an infinite bus, where nonlinear terms include sine and cosine functions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure in off-attractor nonlinear dynamics for estimation and prediction; the observable functions obtained from the proposed construction outperform methods that use dictionary functions comprising monomials or radial basis functions.
Using Data-Driven Prediction of Downstream 1D River Flow to Overcome the Challenges of Hydrologic River Modeling
Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools.
Exploiting stochastic locality in lattice QCD: hadronic observables and their uncertainties
Abstract Because of the mass gap, lattice QCD simulations exhibit stochastic locality: distant regions of the lattice fluctuate independently. There is a long history of exploiting this to increase statistics by obtaining multiple spatially-separated samples from each gauge field; in the extreme case, we arrive at the master-field approach in which a single gauge field is used. Here we develop techniques for studying hadronic observables using position-space correlators, which are more localized, and compare with the standard time-momentum representation. We also adapt methods for estimating the variance of an observable from autocorrelated Monte Carlo samples to the case of correlated spatially-separated samples.
Asynchronous quadratic control for constrained hidden markov jump linear systems with incomplete MTPM and MOCPM
Abstract This paper investigates the quadratic optimal control problem for constrained Markov jump linear systems with incomplete mode transition probability matrix (MTPM). Considering original system mode is not accessible, observed mode is utilized for asynchronous controller design where mode observation conditional probability matrix (MOCPM), which characterizes the emission between original modes and observed modes is assumed to be partially known. An LMI optimization problem is formulated for such constrained hidden Markov jump linear systems with incomplete MTPM and MOCPM. Based on this, a feasible state-feedback controller can be designed with the application of free-connection weighting matrix method. The desired controller, dependent on observed mode, is an asynchronous one which can minimize the upper bound of quadratic cost and satisfy restrictions on system states and control variables. Furthermore, clustering observation where observed modes recast into several clusters, is explored for simplifying the computational complexity. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the validity.