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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Feature Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a Self Organizing Feature Map (SOFM). Local linear modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems with the SOFM is extended to a control framework where the modeled system is nonautonomous, driven by an exogenous input. This extension to a control framework is based on the consideration of a finite number of subregions in the control space. Multiple self organizing feature maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experimental knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOFM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOFM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal. Each SOFM provides a codebook representation of the tunnel dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the minimization of a similarity metric which is the essence of the self organizing feature of the map. Thus, the SOFM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme than selects the best available model for the applied control. Experimental results of controlling the wind tunnel, with the proposed method, during operational runs where strict research requirements on the control of the Mach number were met, are presented. Comparison to similar runs under the same conditions with the tunnel controlled by either the existing controller or an expert operator indicate the superiority of the method.

Motter, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Theoretical and Observational Determination of Global and Regional Radiation Budget, Forcing and Feedbacks at the Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface

Report consists of: 1. List of accomplishments 2. List of publications 3. Abstracts of published or submitted papers and 4. Subject invention disclosure. The accomplishments of the grant listed are: 1. Improved the third-order turbulence closure in cloud resolving models to remove the liquid water oscillation. 2. Used the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) large-eddy simulation (LES) model to provide data for radiation transfer testing. 3. Revised shortwave k-distribution models based on HITRAN 2000. 4. Developed a gamma-weighted two-stream radiative transfer model for radiation budget estimate applications. 5. Estimated the effect of spherical geometry to the earth radiation budget. 6. Estimated top-of-atmosphere irradiance over snow and sea ice surfaces. 7. Estimated the aerosol direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. 8. Estimated the top-of-atmosphere reflectance of the clear-sky molecular atmosphere over ocean. 9. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES TRMM satellite instrument (tropical) 10. Developed and validated new set of Angular Distribution Models for the CERES Terra satellite instrument (global) 11. Quantified the top-of-atmosphere direct radiative effect of aerosols over global oceans from merged CERES and MODIS observations 12 Clarified the definition of TOA flux reference level for radiation budget studies 13. Developed new algorithm for unfaltering CERES measured radiances 14. Used multiangle POLDER measurements to produce narrowband angular distribution models and examine the effect of scene identification errors on TOA albedo estimates 15. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Reflectance Matching (MRM) model for inferring TOA albedos from ice clouds using multi-angle satellite measurements. 16. Developed and validated a novel algorithm called the Multidirectional Polarized Reflectance Matching (MPRM) model for inferring particle shapes from ice clouds using multi-angle polarized satellite measurements. 17. Developed 4 advanced light scattering models including the three-dimensional (3D) uniaxial perfectly matched layer (UPML) finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model. 18. Develop sunglint in situ measurement and study reflectance distribution in the sunglint area. 19. Lead a balloon-borne radiometer TOA albedo validation effort. 20. Developed a CERES surface UVB, UVA, and UV index product.

Loeb, Norman G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cyclic Oxidation Modeling and Life Prediction

The cyclic oxidation process can be described as an iterative scale growth and spallation sequence by a number of similar models. Model input variable include oxide scale type and growth parameters, spalling geometry, spall constant, and cycle duration. Outputs include net weight change, the amounts of retained and spalled oxide, the total oxygen and metal consumed, and the terminal rates of weight loss and metal consumption. All models and their variations produce a number of similar characteristic features. In general, spalling and material consumption increase to a steady state rate, at which point the retained scale approaches a constant and the rate of weight loss becomes linear. For one model, this regularity was demonstrated as dimensionless, universal expressions, obtained by normalizing the variables by critical performance factors. These insights were enabled through the use of the COSP for Windows cyclic oxidation spalling program.

Smialek, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prolyl-tRNA synthetase inhibition promotes cell death in SK-MEL-2 cells through GCN2-ATF4 pathway activation

Protein translation is highly activated in cancer tissues through oncogenic mutations and amplifications, and this can support survival and aberrant proliferation. Therefore, blocking translation could be a promising way to block cancer progression. The process of charging a cognate amino acid to tRNA, a crucial step in protein synthesis, is mediated by tRNA synthetases such as prolyl tRNA synthetase (PRS). Interestingly, unlike pan-translation inhibitors, we demonstrated that a novel small molecule PRS inhibitor (T-3861174) induced cell death in several tumor cell lines including SK-MEL-2 without complete suppression of translation. Additionally, our findings indicated that T-3861174-induced cell death was caused by activation of the GCN2-ATF4 pathway. Furthermore, the PRS inhibitor exhibited significant anti-tumor activity in several xenograft models without severe body weight losses. These results indicate that PRS is a druggable target, and suggest that T-3861174 is a potential therapeutic agent for cancer therapy. - Highlights: • A novel small molecule prolyl tRNA synthetase inhibitor, T-3861174, was tested. • T-3861174 induced cell death in several tumor cell lines. • T-3861174 cytotoxicity was mediated by the GCN2-ATF4 pathway. • Prolyl tRNA synthetase inhibition hindered tumor growth in vivo in xenograft models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Polar Motion Constraints on Models of the Fortnightly Tide

Estimates of the near-fortnightly Mf ocean tide from Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry and from numerical solutions to the shallow water equations agree reasonably well, at least in their basin-scale features. For example, both show that the Pacific Ocean tide lags the Atlantic tide by roughly 30 degrees. There are hints of finer scale agreements in the elevation fields, but noise levels are high. In contrast, estimates of Mf currents are only weakly constrained by the TP data, because high-wavenumber Rossby waves (with intense currents) are associated with relatively small perturbations in surface elevation. As a result, a wide range of Mf current fields are consistent with both the TP data and the hydrodynamic equations within a priori plausible misfit bounds. We find that a useful constraint on the Mf currents is provided by independent estimates of the Earth's polar motion. At the Mf period polar motion shows a weak signal (both prograde and retrograde) which must be almost entirely caused by the ocean tide. We have estimated this signal from the SPACE2000 time series, after applying a broad-band correction for atmospheric angular momentum. Although the polar motion estimates have relatively large uncertainties, they are sufficiently precise to fix optimum data weights in a global ocean inverse model of Mf. These weights control the tradeoff between fitting a prior hydrodynamic model of Mf and fitting the relatively noisy T/P measurements of Mf. The predicted polar motion from the final inverse model agrees remarkably well with the Mf polar motion observations. The preferred model is also consistent with noise levels suggested by island gauges, and it is marginally consistent with differences observed by subsetting the altimetry (to the small extent that this is possible). In turn, this new model of the Mf ocean tide allows the ocean component to be removed from Mf estimates of length of day, thus yielding estimates of complex Love numbers less contaminated by oceanic effects than has hitherto been possible.

Ray, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Self-Tuning of Design Variables for Generalized Predictive Control

Three techniques are introduced to determine the order and control weighting for the design of a generalized predictive controller. These techniques are based on the application of fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, and simulated annealing to conduct an optimal search on specific performance indexes or objective functions. Fuzzy logic is found to be feasible for real-time and on-line implementation due to its smooth and quick convergence. On the other hand, genetic algorithms and simulated annealing are applicable for initial estimation of the model order and control weighting, and final fine-tuning within a small region of the solution space, Several numerical simulations for a multiple-input and multiple-output system are given to illustrate the techniques developed in this paper.

Lin, Chaung↗
NASA NTRS1996

Changes in aerobic power of women, ages 20-64 yr

This study quantified and compared the cross-sectional and longitudinal influence of age, self-report physical activity (SR-PA), and body composition (%fat) on the decline of maximal aerobic power (VO2peak) of women. The cross-sectional sample consisted of 409 healthy women, ages 20-64 yr. The 43 women of the longitudinal sample were from the same population and examined twice, the mean time between tests was 3.7 (+/-2.2) yr. Peak oxygen uptake was determined by indirect calorimetry during a maximal treadmill test. The zero-order correlation of -0.742 between VO2peak and %fat was significantly (P < 0.05) higher then the SR-PA (r = 0.626) and age correlations (r = -0.633). Linear regression defined the cross-sectional age-related decline in VO2peak at 0.537 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Multiple regression analysis (R = 0.851) showed that adding %fat and SR-PA and their interaction to the regression model reduced the age regression weight of -0.537, to -0.265 ml.kg-1.min-1.yr-1. Statistically controlling for time differences between tests, general linear models analysis showed that longitudinal changes in aerobic power were due to independent changes in %fat and SR-PA, confirming the cross-sectional results. These findings are consistent with men's data from the same lab showing that about 50% of the cross-sectional age-related decline in VO2peak was due to %fat and SR-PA.

Aging/physiology↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the effect of scalar flux weighing of linearly anisotropic scattering matrices in few-group transport calculations

The majority of the codes available for homogenized group constant generation for deterministic transport calculations apply the approximation of scalar flux weighting during energy group condensation of higher-order anisotropic scattering matrices. In this paper, we discuss the effect of scalar flux weighting of the linearly anisotropic scattering matrices in the frame of S P{sub 3} and S{sub 12} calculations performed for a two-dimensional VVER-440 reactor benchmark. To compare group constants generated for two neutron energy groups, an infinite pin cell was homogenized with Serpent 2 and ERANOS ECCO. Serpent 2 applies scalar flux, while ERANOS ECCO performs current weighting of the linearly anisotropic scattering matrices during energy group condensation. For analyzing the effect of the various weighting options, three simple reactor models were built assuming different core sizes using standard rectangular assemblies with 15*15 fuel pins. Diffusion, SP{sub 3} and S{sub 12} calculations were performed for the 3 models using group constants generated with Serpent 2 and ERANOS ECCO. The effect of scalar flux weighting of linearly anisotropic scattering matrices is shown by comparing the decrease in reactivity due to the decreased reactor size, as well as the assembly power distribution to reference results obtained with Serpent 2 Monte Carlo calculations. Neglecting higher than linearly anisotropic scattering and indirect application of diffusion coefficients in higher-order transport calculations is advised if angular flux-moment spectra weighted higher-order scattering matrices cannot be generated. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Influence of macromolecular architecture on necking in polymer extrusion film casting process

Extrusion film casting (EFC) is an important polymer processing technique that is used to produce several thousand tons of polymer films/coatings on an industrial scale. In this research, we are interested in understanding quantitatively how macromolecular chain architecture (for example long chain branching (LCB) or molecular weight distribution (MWD or PDI)) influences the necking and thickness distribution of extrusion cast films. We have used different polymer resins of linear and branched molecular architecture to produce extrusion cast films under controlled experimental conditions. The necking profiles of the films were imaged and the velocity profiles during EFC were monitored using particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) technique. Additionally, the temperature profiles were captured using an IR thermography and thickness profiles were calculated. The experimental results are compared with predictions of one-dimensional flow model of Silagy et al{sup 1} wherein the polymer resin rheology is modeled using molecular constitutive equations such as the Rolie-Poly (RP) and extended Pom Pom (XPP). We demonstrate that the 1-D flow model containing the molecular constitutive equations provides new insights into the role of macromolecular chain architecture on film necking.{sup 1}D. Silagy, Y. Demay, and J-F. Agassant, Polym. Eng. Sci., 36, 2614 (1996)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Contextualizing Air Traffic Management Conversations using Natural Language Understanding

Efficient management of air traffic and mitigation of delays depend on extracting actionable information from unstructured data, such as dialogues from the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) telecons. This study presents a pipeline utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods for Intent Classification (IC) and Slot Filling (SF) to identify and extract Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) from aviation-specific dialogues. We leveraged DeBERTa, a pre-trained transformer model, and fine-tuned it to the nuances of the aviation domain. Despite challenges posed by annotation complexities, the IC model achieved promising results with a weighted average F1-score of 0.81. Our results are close to those of human annotators, which demonstrates the model’s strong alignment with human-level performance. The SF model also showed strong performance, achieving a weighted F1-score of 0.97, which demonstrates its effectiveness in accurately predicting key slots. Our analysis revealed limitations in handling less frequent intents and slot labels due to data sparsity, motivating future efforts to adopt joint IC-SF modeling and data augmentation strategies. This research highlights the potential of domain-specific NLP to streamline decision-making in the aviation industry and improve the management of TMIs.

Air Traffic Control Management↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph network heterogeneity predicts interplant wake losses

Wind plants generate large-scale wakes, which can affect the performance of neighboring installations. Such wakes are challenging to estimate due to the inherent complexity in modeling wake interactions between large quantities of turbines at various distances. Weighted directed graph networks can inform complex models by linking turbine pairs into chains of upstream and downstream neighbors for a given wind direction. A novel interpretation of the graph network adjacency matrix is proposed where each element of the matrix represents the cumulative impact of upstream turbines on an individual. In this study, wake losses were estimated with an engineering wake model across a range of inflow conditions for nine parametric variations of a system containing two neighboring wind plants. The parametric nature of the study isolates turbine spacing within the plant, separation distance between plants, and wind direction as the main drivers of wake losses. Spatial heterogeneity is computed from the weighted average adjacency matrix of each plant arrangement. The proposed method is orders of magnitude faster than wake modeling and does not require detailed turbine information or atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, the weighted average adjacency matrix provides insight on the spatial organization of wake losses at various scales. Plant heterogeneity is correlated with wake losses within and among plants. Framing wind plant wake interaction in terms of graph network spatial heterogeneity provides an efficient approach for predicting wake losses within and among neighboring wind plants with applications to other complex systems where wake interactions are key factor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1974

Small scale model static acoustic investigation of hybrid high lift systems combining upper surface blowing with the internally blown flap

A static acoustic and propulsion test of a small radius Jacobs-Hurkamp and a large radius Flex Flap combined with four upper surface blowing (USB) nozzles was performed. Nozzle force and flow data, flap trailing edge total pressure survey data, and acoustic data were obtained. Jacobs-Hurkamp flap surface pressure data, flow visualization photographs, and spoiler acoustic data from the limited mid-year tests are reported. A pressure ratio range of 1.2 to 1.5 was investigated for the USB nozzles and for the auxiliary blowing slots. The acoustic data were scaled to a four-engine STOL airplane of roughly 110,000 kilograms or 50,000 pounds gross weight, corresponding to a model scale of approximately 0.2 for the nozzles without deflector. The model nozzle scale is actually reduced to about .17 with deflector although all results in this report assume 0.2 scale factor. Trailing edge pressure surveys indicated that poor flow attachment was obtained even at large flow impingement angles unless a nozzle deflector plate was used. Good attachment was obtained with the aspect ratio four nozzle with deflector, confirming the small scale wind tunnel tests.

Cole, T. W.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Online technique for detecting state of onboard fiber optic gyroscope

Although angle random walk (ARW) of fiber optic gyroscope (FOG) has been well modeled and identified before being integrated into the high-accuracy attitude control system of satellite, aging and unexpected failures can affect the performance of FOG after launch, resulting in the variation of ARW coefficient. Therefore, the ARW coefficient can be regarded as an indicator of “state of health” for FOG diagnosis in some sense. The Allan variance method can be used to estimate ARW coefficient of FOG, however, it requires a large amount of data to be stored. Moreover, the procedure of drawing slope lines for estimation is painful. To overcome the barriers, a weighted state-space model that directly models the ARW to obtain a nonlinear state-space model was established for FOG. Then, a neural extended-Kalman filter algorithm was implemented to estimate and track the variation of ARW in real time. The results of experiment show that the proposed approach is valid to detect the state of FOG. Moreover, the proposed technique effectively avoids the storage of data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-D-9A-03: STAMP: Simulator for Texture Analysis in MRI/PET

Purpose: To develop a convenient simulation platform to facilitate PET/MR image analysis with the prospect of gaining a better understanding of the influence of acquisition parameters on PET/MRI textural features. The simulation platform is demonstrated by showing textural variations of a representative case study using different image acquisition parameters. Methods: The simulation platform is composed of MRI simulators JEMRIS and SIMRI to achieve simulations of customized MRI sequences on sample tumor models. The PET simulator GATE is used to get 2D and 3D Monte Carlo acquisitions of voxelized PET sources using a phantom geometry and a customized scanner architecture. The platform incorporates a series of graphical user interfaces written in Matlab. Two GUIs are used to facilitate communication with the simulation executables installed on a computer cluster. A third GUI is used to collect and display the clinical and simulated images, as well as fused PET/MRI images, and perform computation of textural features.To illustrate the capabilities of this platform, one FDG-PET and T1-weighted (T1w) digitized tumor models were generated from clinical images of a soft-tissue sarcoma patient. Numerically simulated MR images were produced using 3 different echo times (TE) and 5 different repetition times (TR). PET 2D images were simulated using an OSEM algorithm with 1 to 32 iterations and a post-reconstruction Gaussian filter of 0, 2, 4 or 6 mm width. Results: STAMP was successfully used to produce numerically simulated FDG-PET and MRI images, and to calculate their corresponding textures. Three typical textures (GLCM-Contrast, GLSZM-ZSV and NGTDM-Coarseness) were found to vary by a range of 45% on average compared to reference scanning conditions in the case of FDG-PET, and by a range of 40% in the case of T1w MRI. Conclusion: We have successfully developed a Matlab-based simulation platform to facilitate PET/MRI texture image analysis for outcome prediction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

A computationally efficient P 1 radiation model for modern combustion systems utilizing pre-conditioned conjugate gradient methods

The iterative convergence of the P 1 radiation model can be slow in optically thin scenarios when employing classical iterative methods. In order to remedy this shortcoming, an in-house P 1 radiation model was interfaced with high performance, scalable, linear solver libraries. Next, the accuracies of P 1 radiation model calculations was assessed by comparing its predictions against discrete ordinates (DO) model calculations for prototypical problems representative of modern combustion systems. Corresponding benchmark results were also included for comparison. Utilizing Pre-Conditioners (PC) to the Conjugate Gradients (CG) method, the convergence time of the P 1 radiation model reduced by a factor of 30 for modest problem sizes and a factor of 70 for larger sized problems when compared against classical Gauss Seidel sweeps. Additionally, PC provided 50% computational savings compared to employing CG in a standalone mode. The P 1 model calculation times were about 25–30% of the DO model calculation time. The time to solution also scaled linearly with an increase in problem size. The weighted sum of gray gases model employed in this study in conjunction with the P 1 model provided good agreement against benchmark data with L 2 error norms (defined relative to corresponding DO calculations) improving when isotropic intensities were prevalent.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using leaf and stomatal traits to predict biomass production and water use efficiency in Populus

Climate change is reshaping ecosystems, driving plants to adapt through leaf-trait plasticity that reflects strategies for growth and water use. Predicting biomass production and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) remains challenging because of genetic, taxonomic, and environmental variability. Here, we used eastern cottonwood and Populus hybrids as a model system to test whether easily measurable leaf traits can serve as reliable predictors of performance, and whether adding stomatal and biochemical traits improves predictive power. Across two field sites in Mississippi, leaf mass per area (LMA), biomass production, iWUE, leaf area, and foliar nitrogen ( N %) differed significantly among taxa and sites, while other traits were conserved. Factorial analysis of mixed data (FAMD) revealed distinct clustering of taxa and sites, indicating coordinated variation among leaf and stomatal traits. Pairwise correlations highlighted fundamental trade-offs, with biomass positively related to LMA and petiole length but negatively associated with iWUE, N %, and carbon isotopic ratios (δ 13 C). Leaf temperature and leaf angle varied among taxa and were significantly correlated with LMA and petiole length, suggesting mechanisms of heat dissipation and leaf movability that link simple traits to gas exchange and productivity. Weighted multiple linear regression models explained 80%–91% of variation in biomass production and iWUE. Models using only LMA, petiole length, and stomatal metrics performed nearly as well as those incorporating N %, and δ 13 C, with complex traits adding approximately 10% explanatory power. These results demonstrate that simple morphological traits capture integrated functional trade-offs, while complex traits refine predictions. This tiered approach provides an efficient framework for selecting high-yielding, water-efficient genotypes of Populus and other hardwood species, offering practical pathways to enhance carbon uptake and iWUE under climate change.

biomass production↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗