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At least 505 records · Page 28

Irreversible thermodynamics of curved lipid membranes. II. Permeability and osmosis

We present a theory that combines the framework of irreversible thermodynamics with modified integral theorems to model arbitrarily curved and deforming membranes immersed in bulk fluid solutions. We study the coupling between the mechanics and permeability of a viscous and elastically bendable membrane, and a multicomponent bulk fluid solution. An equation for the internal entropy production for irreversibilities at the membrane is derived, determining the generalized thermodynamic forces and fluxes, from which we identify the deviatoric stress as a novel driving force for permeability. A complete set of equations of motion, constitutive laws, and boundary conditions to model the lipid membrane and bulk fluid system are provided.

Alkadri, Ahmad M↗

Whole cell simulator

A whole cell model (WCM) is a comprehensive multi-scale computational model representing all the known biochemical processes in a cell. It relies on a variety of intracellular pathway models and omics data. This computational framework enables seamless integration of diverse simulation methods used in WCM such as stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA), ordinary differential equations (ODE), flux balance analysis (FBA), and logic-based approaches. These methods run simultaneously, not only for whole pathways but also for subsets of reactions. Furthermore, we aim to enable dynamic switching between the methods when beneficial. Is

GEORGAKOUDIS, GIORGIS↗

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Implications of AI and Data Center Service Demand on Energy, Water, and Economic Systems

This talk focuses on the challenges posed by the rapid growth of data centers (DCs), which rely heavily on electricity, water, land, and mineral resources, and have significant interactions with economic growth. The U.S. leads in DC deployment, but understanding how resource demands and constraints impact DC expansion requires strategic multisector analysis. To address this, the talk introduces a new conceptual framework and modeling capability within GCAM-USA, allowing integrated analysis of DC service demand, electricity, and direct and indirect water needs under varied scenarios. Insights include state-level water and electricity trends for DCs, uncertainty bounds, and the broader implications for resources and economics.

Data Centers↗

Design-based mission operation

This paper describes the four phases of the VML addressing a major challenge per phase, mission model framework, virtual phototyping, agent-based mission system integration, and virtual mission operation.

Virtual Mission VML↗

Simulation of Reverse Osmosis Membrane Compaction Using Material Point Method

Reverse Osmosis (RO) is a promising technology to address the impending water-crisis in the upcoming decades. RO at high salinities and high pressures is challenging due to membrane compaction that changes its porosity and permeability. In this study, we present a simulation methodology for membrane structural mechanics to understand pore size distribution and permeability variations under high pressure. We use the material point method (MPM), that solves the solid mechanics equations in a Lagrangian framework. MPM provides many features that make it well-suited for simulating mesoporous membranes. The Lagrangian framework allows for large deformations, easy integration of constitutive models and direct import of complex geometries as particles. The spatial discretization in our MPM solver is achieved using linear or cubic-spline shape functions while the time integration is carried out using the explicit Euler method. A series of images containing detailed pore structures obtained from X-ray tomography is first converted to a collection of material points. Compressive loads are applied to the top layer of the membrane to simulate the application of pressure. The membrane deformation and pore size distribution before and after load application are reported and compared with the experimental measurements. The presentation discusses the numerical methods used, the performance of the solver on high-performance computing machines, and the results of membrane compact in detail.

compaction↗

Enabling Scale-Up Through Multi-Fidelity Adaptive Computing

We present ideas from our ongoing work in adaptive computing - an optimization framework that allows us to strategically deploy various fidelity level experiments and simulations to guide decision making. The framework aims to enable uncertainty quantified scale-up of simulations and experiments, which causes increased complexity. A key feature of the framework is the integration of user-specified local model trustworthiness estimates. Adaptive sampling strategies allow us to optimally exploit the multiple fidelity level information and trustworthiness measures to arrive at the best decisions within a highly limited budget of objective function evaluations.

adaptive sampling↗

Multi-scale modeling of wastage layer formation in metallic fuel cladding

Fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) is a major concern for U-Zr metallic fuels' performance, primarily due to the formation of a brittle layer (wastage) in the cladding. This brittle layer, resulting from intermetallic compounds between cladding constituents Fe, Cr, and lanthanide fission products, significantly impacts the cladding's mechanical integrity. Recent efforts focus on developing a mechanistic modeling framework to understand lanthanide production, transport to the fuel-cladding interface, and phase transformation to intermetallic phases. A multi-scale computational approach has been used to calculate lanthanide transport rates, with atomistic calculations determining Nd diffusivities through the solid fuel matrix and along pore surfaces. These diffusivities inform a mesoscale model to determine an effective diffusion coefficient, accounting for porosity and infiltration with bond sodium. This effective diffusivity is used in engineering-scale simulations via the BISON fuel performance code, which has been validated against EBR-II and FFTF reactor experiments.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Theoretical foundations of waste factor and waste figure with applications to fixed wireless access and relay systems

The growing energy demands of next-generation wireless systems call for unified, system-level metrics to evaluate and optimize energy efficiency. This paper advances the concept of the Waste Factor (W), or Waste Figure (WF) in decibel scale, as a general framework for modeling power loss across cascaded communication components. By integrating W into the Consumption Factor (CF)–the ratio of data rate to consumed power–we reveal how component inefficiencies influence the minimum achievable energy per bit. Closed-form expressions are derived for energy-per-bit consumption in both direct and relay-assisted links, along with a decision rule for selecting the more energy-efficient path. While not explicitly modeled, Reflective Intelligent Surfaces (RIS) are shown to fit naturally within this framework. The analysis is further applied to a Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) scenario, where asymmetries in traffic direction and hardware inefficiencies are jointly considered, demonstrating the utility of the Waste Factor in guiding energy-aware system design.

Sevim, Nurullah [Texas A&M University, College Sta↗

Coupling turbulent flow with blade aeroelastics and control modules in large-eddy simulation of utility-scale wind turbines

We present a large-eddy simulation framework capable of control co-design of large wind turbines, coupling the turbulent flow environment with blade aeroelastics and turbine controllers. The geometry and aerodynamics of the rotor blades and the turbine nacelle are parameterized using an actuator surface model. The baseline collective pitch control and individual pitch control (IPC) algorithms, consisting of a single-input, single-output proportional–integral controller and two integral controllers, respectively, are incorporated into the simulation framework. Furthermore, a second-order model based on the Euler–Bernoulli beam theory is implemented to describe the blade deformation. Simulations are carried out to investigate the impact of collective and individual pitch control strategies on the deflection of turbine blades. Our results show that the IPC reduces the blade tip deflection fluctuations in the out-of-plane direction, while the fluctuations of the blade tip deflection along the in-plane direction are barely affected by the IPC. Furthermore, the blade out-of-plane deformation fluctuation is underestimated by the one-way coupling approach compared to the two-way coupling approach. Furthermore, the findings of this study reveal the importance of advanced control systems in reducing the dynamic loads on wind turbine blades and underscore the potential of control co-design to reduce the levelized cost of wind energy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Minimizing total energy cost and tardiness penalty for a scheduling-layout problem in a flexible job shop system: A comparison of four metaheuristic algorithms

Job scheduling and machine layout are interrelated in improving energy consumption (EC) and productivity measures such as tardiness and represent two important decisions that must be made by manufacturers. This interdependency can be explained by transportation time, which connects scheduling and layout. Scheduling and layout, however, have not been thoroughly studied in conjunction using an integrated model in the context of sustainable manufacturing. Hence, we propose an energy-aware optimization model in which scheduling is integrated with layout in a single-level framework. More specifically, a single objective function is defined to minimize the facility energy cost and the job tardiness penalty, which control EC and tardiness respectively in a flexible job shop system. In order to model machine EC more accurately, we also consider three different machine states: a processing state and two idle states. Our case studies show that the integrated model exhibits better performance in controlling manufacturing EC and job tardiness than a non-integrated model in which machine locations are uncontrollable and transportation times between machines are unchangeable. To deal with large-sized problems, we also introduce four new metaheuristics. The performances of these new metaheuristics are compared in terms of objective function values and CPU times using various case studies. The results indicate that a hybrid ant colony optimization and simulated annealing (ACO-SA) algorithm provides better performance than the other algorithms. Specifically, our case studies show that the integrated model using ACO-SA can improve the objective function value by around 5% when compared to the non-integrated model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Flight Dynamics Modeling for a Rapid Conceptual Development Environment

This paper presents the integration of flight dynamics modeling (FDM) within an aircraft conceptual development framework. Within this framework, FDM and simulation are used for the preliminary analysis of the takeoff, landing, and critical loss of thrust performance of early-stage aircraft concepts. The aerodynamic and propulsive models are built using the XML-based DAVE-ML model exchange. Automated integration of these models is achieved using the Simulink® model generation available through the DAVEtools Java package in addition to Simulink®-based flight simulation blocks. Results demonstrating the established methods are presented for the analysis of a twin-engine light transport example aircraft. This work establishes methods that will be used to perform trade studies of aircraft designed for Regional Air Mobility operations. These aircraft will require short takeoff and landing distances in addition to steep climb and descent gradients, each of which can be estimated and applied as design space constraints using the current methods.

Flight Dynamics↗

Phase-field framework with constraints and its applications to ductile fracture in polycrystals and fatigue

Abstract Modeling of ductile fracture in polycrystalline structures is challenging, since it requires integrated modeling of cracks, crystal plasticity, and grains. Here we extend the typical phase-field framework to the situations with constraints on the order parameters, and formulate two types of phase-field models on ductile fracture. The Type-I model incorporates three sets of order parameters, which describe the distributions of cracks, plastic strain, and grains, respectively. Crystal plasticity is employed within grain interiors accommodated by J 2 plasticity at grain boundaries. The applications of the Type-I model to single crystals and bicrystals demonstrate the influences of grain orientations and grain boundaries on crack growth. In the Type-II model, J 2 plasticity is assumed for the whole system and grain structures are neglected. Taking advantage of the efficiency of the fast Fourier transform, our Type-II model is employed to study low cycle fatigue. Crack closure and striation-like patterning of plastic strain are observed in the simulations. Crack growth rate is analyzed as a function of the J -integral, and the simulated fatigue life as a function of plastic strain agrees with the Coffin–Manson relation without a priori assumption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Computational framework for behind-the-meter DER techno-economic modeling and optimization: REopt Lite

The energy system is undergoing a major transformation with the global emphasis on decarbonization. Distributed generation is projected to play a significant role in the new energy system, and energy models are informing how distributed generation can be integrated reliably and economically. In this work, we present an end-to-end computational framework for distributed energy resource (DER) modeling, REopt Lite™, which captures the interface of technology, economics, and policy in the energy modeling process. We describe the problem space, the building blocks of the model, the scaling capabilities of the design, the optimization formulation, and the extensibility of the model. We present a framework for accelerating the techno-economic analysis of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources to enable rapid planning and decision-making, thereby enabling greater renewable energy deployment. This computation framework is open-sourced to facilitate transparency, flexibility, and wider collaboration opportunities within the worldwide energy modeling community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent advances in integrated hydrologic models: Integration of new domains

Over the past several decades, hydrologic models have advanced from independent models of the surface and subsurface to integrated models that can capture the terrestrial hydrologic cycle within one framework. In recent years, these coupled frameworks have seen the inclusion of biogeochemical processes, ecohydrology, sedimentation and erosion, cold region hydrology, anthropogenic activities, and atmospheric processes. This expansion is the result of increased computational, data, and modeling capabilities and capacities, as well as improved understanding of the processes that drive these integrated systems. Here, in this study, we review these recent advances to integrate new processes and systems into existing terrestrial hydrologic models and highlight the significant challenges and opportunities that remain. We identify that with so many models currently available and in development, selecting the most appropriate model is difficult, and we suggest a path for new or novice modelers to find the most appropriate code based on their needs. In addition, data required to parameterize and calibrate these models can often constrain their applicability and usefulness. However, advances in environmental sensors and measurement technology, in addition to data assimilation of non-traditional data (e.g. remote sensing, qualitative data) are providing new ways of addressing this issue. As we expand hydrologic models to integrate more processes and systems, our computational demands also increase. Recent and emerging advances in computational platforms, including cloud and quantum computing, in addition to the use of machine learning to capture some processes, will continue to support the use of increasingly larger and more complex, process-based models. Finally, we highlight that it is critical to develop state-of-the-science models that are accessible to all model users, not just those applied for research and development. We encourage continued development of diverse modeling platforms, considering the user needs, data availability, and computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗