Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model fitting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Parameter estimation from spontaneous imbibition into volcanic tuff

Two-phase fluid flow properties underlie quantitative prediction of water and gas movement, but constraining these properties typically requires multiple time-consuming laboratory methods. The estimation of two-phase flow properties (van Genuchten parameters, porosity, and intrinsic permeability) is illustrated in cores of vitric nonwelded volcanic tuff using Bayesian parameter estimation that fits numerical models to observations from spontaneous imbibition experiments. The uniqueness and correlation of the estimated parameters is explored using different modeling assumptions and subsets of the observed data. The resulting estimation process is sensitive to both moisture retention and relative permeability functions, thereby offering a comprehensive method for constraining both functions. The data collected during this relatively simple laboratory experiment, used in conjunction with a numerical model and a global optimizer, result in a viable approach for augmenting more traditional capillary pressure data obtained from hanging water column, membrane plate extractor, or mercury intrusion methods. This method may be useful when imbibition rather than drainage parameters are sought, when larger samples (e.g., including heterogeneity or fractures) need to be tested that cannot be accommodated in more traditional methods, or when in educational laboratory settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Atmospheric humidity deficits tell us how soil moisture deficits down-regulate ecosystem evaporation

Knowing how actual evaporation is down-regulated from potential evaporation during periods with soil moisture deficits is one of the greatest challenges towards computing evaporation everywhere on a regular basis. We propose the hypothesis that vegetated landscapes transmit information on soil moisture deficits through its down-regulation of evaporation, which in turn affects the humidification and growth of the planetary boundary layer. To test this hypothesis, here, we examined how the evaporative fraction, defined as the ratio between actual and potential evaporation, corresponds with the soil moisture stress index, defined as the relative humidity with a power law dependence on vapor pressure deficit times a parameter, β. We tested the parameterized soil moisture stress index with direct eddy covariance measurements of actual evaporation and computations of potential evaporation based on meteorological conditions, averaged on monthly time steps. The analysis was conducted on a dataset obtained from 144 FLUXNET sites. These sites spanned much of the world's climates and biomes and contained over 5900 months of observations. Observations of the evaporative fraction fit the model of the soil moisture stress index best for semi-arid and arid ecosystems, and least for the humid and wet ecosystems. Consequently, a significant relationship between measurements of the evaporative fraction and soil moisture stress index held for about one-half of the population of sites. Under this condition, the median value of the parameter, β, was 1.41. To investigate the mechanism of this empirical soil moisture stress index, we diagnosed it with a coupled evaporation-planetary boundary layer model. The soil moisture stress index is strongly related to surface resistance, as defined by inverting Penman-Monteith equation. Consequently, this index provides an independent estimate of surface resistance based on easy to measure mean monthly weather conditions like relative humidity and temperature. Thereby, this soil moisture stress index has potential to be applied to weather, climate and biogeochemical models and the interpretation of satellite derived evaporation products, like the one provided by the ECOSTRESS mission.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heterogeneity or illusion? Track the carbon Kuznets curve of global residential building operations

Residential buildings, the “last mile” sector in the global decarbonization, have become the most significant uncertain factor hindering carbon neutrality with increasing household energy demand. To track the operational carbon in buildings, this study investigates the carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) and the corresponding decoupling status of residential building operations at four emission scales by using the data of 30 countries from 2000 to 2019. The results show that (1) the CKC model can fit more than half of the samples. Most curves have an inverted U-shape, with 76% of emission per household and 82% of total emissions. (2) In the presence of the CKC, over four-fifths of global residential buildings peak regardless of any emission scale. The analysis denotes that the carbon emissions of developed countries reach their peaks earlier. In the total emissions, the samples’ peaking proportion is 20% and 25% with income per capita < 20,000 United States dollars (USD) and 20,000–40,000 USD, respectively. (3) The Tapio decoupling analysis and the threshold regression effectively verify the robustness and the heterogeneity of CKCs, respectively. Strong decoupling effects of CKCs in most countries are demonstrated at the scales of emission per floor space and the total emissions, and the heterogeneity proves the classic inverted U-shaped relationship between economy and emissions doesn’t exist in all emitters. Overall, this study tracks the historical carbon emission trajectories of residential building operations at a global scale, providing reference for different economies to simulate the dynamic of building carbon emissions along with the economic booming.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A generalized and adaptable tensor-contraction-based cluster expansion formalism for multicomponent solids

Density functional theory (DFT)-based simulations of materials have first-principles accuracy, but are very computationally expensive. For simulating various properties of multi-component alloys, the cluster expansion (CE) technique has served as the standard workaround to improve computational efficiency. However, the standard CE technique is difficult to extend to exotic and/or low-symmetry lattices, often implemented via iteration over particular cluster types, which must be enumerated per lattice structure. In this work, we introduce the tensor cluster expansion (TCE), implemented in the open-source code tce-lib, which maps correlation functions to mixed tensor contractions, eliminating the need to iterate over cluster types and additionally making the calculation of correlation functions well-suited for massively parallel architectures like GPUs. We show that local interaction energies are an immediate consequence of the TCE formalism, yielding nearly $\mathcal{O}$(1) energy difference calculations. We then use this formalism to fit CE models for the TaW and CoNiCrFeMn systems, and use these models to respectively compute the enthalpy of mixing curve and Cowley short-range order parameters, showing excellent agreement with ground truth data.

Cluster expansion↗

Methodology for physics-informed generation of synthetic neutron time-of-flight measurement data

Accurate neutron cross section data are a vital input to the simulation of nuclear systems for a wide range of applications from energy production to national security. The evaluation of experimental data is a key step in producing accurate cross sections. There is a widely recognized lack of reproducibility in the evaluation process due to its artisanal nature and therefore there is a call for improvement within the nuclear data community. This can be realized by automating/standardizing viable parts of the process, namely, parameter estimation by fitting theoretical models to experimental data. This automation effort could greatly benefit from a synthetic data resource. This work leverages problem-specific physics, Monte Carlo sampling, and a general methodology for data synthesis to generate unlimited, labelled experimental cross-section data that is statistically indistinguishable to the observed data. Heuristic and, where applicable, rigorous statistical comparisons to observed data support this claim. The demonstration is based on/limited to transmission measurements at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and energy-differential cross sections in the resolved resonance region (RRR). An open-source software is published alongside this article that executes the complete methodology to produce high-utility synthetic datasets. The goal of this work is to provide an approach and corresponding tool that will allow the evaluation community to begin exploring more data-driven, ML-based solutions to long-standing challenges in the field.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A functional form for liquid scintillator pulse shapes

Digitization of detector signals enables analysis of the original waveform to extract timing, particle identification, and energy deposition information. Here we present the use of analytical functions based on sigmoids to model and fit such pulse shapes from liquid organic scintillators, though the method should also be applicable to other detector systems. Neutron and gamma interactions in NE213 detectors were digitized from the phototube anode and fit using a sigmoid-based function. The acuity of the fit in extracting timing information and performing neutron-gamma pulse-shape discrimination are presented and discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Investigating the composition of the $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) state with π ± $K$$^{0}_{S}$ correlations at the LHC

The first measurements of femtoscopic correlations with the particle pair combinations π ± $K$$^{0}_{S}$ in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are reported by the ALICE experiment. Using the femtoscopic approach, it is shown that it is possible to study the elusive $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) particle that has been considered a tetraquark candidate for over forty years. Source and final-state interaction parameters are extracted by fitting a model assuming a Gaussian source to the experimentally measured two-particle correlation functions. The final-state interaction in the π ± $K$$^{0}_{S}$ system is modeled through a resonant scattering amplitude, defined in terms of a mass and a coupling parameter, The extracted mass and Breit–Wigner width, derived from the coupling parameter, of the final-state interaction are found to be consistent with previous measurements of the $K$$^{*}_{0}$ (700). The small value and increase of the correlation strength with increasing source size support the hypothesis that the $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) is a four-quark state, i.e. a tetraquark state of the form (q 1 , $\bar{q}$ 2 , q 3 , $\bar{q}$ 3 ) in which q 1 , q 2 and q 3 indicate the flavor of the valence quarks of the π and $K$$^{0}_{S}$. This latter trend is also confirmed via a simple geometric model that assumes a tetraquark structure of the $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) resonance.

13 TeV pp collisions↗

The maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco affects CO2 refixation in temperate broadleaved forest trees

Mesophyll resistance to CO 2 diffusion (rm) and the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) affect photosynthetic rates, and can potentially also influence the percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO 2 being refixated (Pr) by mesophyll cells. Here we investigated how various leaf anatomical traits (e.g. leaf mass per area [LMA] and leaf dry matter content [LDMC]) influenced rm in leaves of mature forest trees. We further explored how rm and Vcmax in turn affected Pr, and if these traits varied among species and leaves along a light gradient. Photosynthetic CO 2 response of leaves grown in high-, medium-, and low-light environments was measured, from Pinus sylvestris [Scots pine], Picea abies [Norway spruce], Quercus robur [English oak], and Betula pendula [Silver birch] in southern Sweden. A modified version of the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model was fitted to the leaf gas exchange data to estimate Vcmax, rm and Pr. We found that of all leaf traits measured, only LMA for Q. robur was significantly higher in leaves from high-light environments. When comparing species, both rm and LMA were significantly higher in the conifers, and rm had a negative correlation with Vcmax. We found that Pr was similar between different species and functional groups, with an average of 73.2% (and SD of ±10.4) across all species. There was a strong, positive correlation between Pr and Vcmax in broadleaves, and we hypothesise that this effect might derive from a higher CO 2 drawdown near Rubisco in leaves with high Vcmax.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Using electronic health record metadata to predict housing instability amongst veterans

Housing instability is considered a significant life stressor and preemptive screening should be applied to identify those at risk for homelessness as early as possible so that they can be targeted for specialized care. We developed models to classify patient outcomes for an established VA Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder (HSCR), which identifies housing instability, in the two months prior to its administration. Logistic Regression and Random Forest models were fit to classify responses using the last 18 months of document activity. We measure concentration of risk across stratifications of predicted probability and observe an enriched likelihood of finding confirmed false negative responses from veterans with diagnosed housing instability. Positive responses were 34 times more likely to be detected within the top 1 % of patients predicted at risk than from those randomly selected. There is a 1 in 4 chance of detecting false negatives within the top 1 % of predicted risk. Machine learning methods can classify between episodes of housing instability using a data-driven approach that does not rely on variables curated from domain experts. This method has the potential to improve clinicians’ ability to identify veterans who are experiencing housing instability but are not captured by HSCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Parameter-free prediction of phase transition in PbTiO 3 through combination of quantum mechanics and statistical mechanics

Thermodynamics of ferroelectric materials and their ferroelectric to paraelectric (FE-PE) transitions is commonly described by the phenomenological Landau theory and more recently by effective Hamiltonian and various potentials, all with model parameters fitted to experimental or theoretical data. Here, in this work, we show that the zentropy theory, which considers the total entropy of a system as a weighted sum of entropies of configurations that the system may experience and the statistical entropy among the configurations, can predict the FE-PE transition without fitting parameters. For PbTiO 3 , the configurations are identified as the FE configurations with 90- or 180° domain walls in addition to the ground state FE configuration without domain wall. With the domain wall energies predicted from first-principles based on density functional theory in the literature as the only inputs, the FE-PE transition for PbTiO 3 is predicted showing remarkable agreement with experiments, unveiling the microscopic fundamentals of the transition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lignin-Derived Magnetic Activated Carbons for Effective Methylene Blue Removal

Large-scale environmental remediation of polluted water requires an effective and recyclable adsorbent produced from an abundant, low-cost, and renewable feedstock via a simple processing procedure. In this work, we demonstrate that lignin-derived magnetic activated carbons (mACs) uniquely satisfy these five criteria for (i) high-performance adsorption, (ii) high regeneration efficiency, (iii) feedstock economic and environmental viability, (iv) single-step processing and (v) large-scale production. The mACs are synthesized via an efficient co-carbonization and activation with simultaneous impregnation of ferric sulfate. Here, the Langmuir model closely fits the adsorption of methylene blue (MB) by mACs within the temperature range of 298–323 K, where the adsorption capacity increases as temperature increases. This capacity increased from 55.0 mg g -1 to 220.2 mg g -1 with the presence of magnetic nanoparticles. In addition, the magnetite nanoparticles on the ACs surface significantly improve its recycling ability with the removal percentage above 95% after four cycles for 5:1 mAC.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Downstream Separation of Formic Acid with Anion-Exchange Resin from Electrocatalytic Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Conversion: Adsorption, Kinetics, and Equilibrium Modeling

The electrocatalytic carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) that produces liquid formic acid (FA) is one potential route to minimize the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere by utilizing CO 2 as a feedstock. However, one of the main disadvantages of this route is the high energy demand required for purification through conventional distillation. This method of purification has been shown to result in a large carbon footprint in life-cycle analysis (LCA). Therefore, finding an alternative purification technique that can integrate with an electrochemical CO 2 RR process with the potential to lower the carbon footprint would be of great interest. Under the experimental conditions of the CO 2 RR, FA remains in its basic form as the formate anion in the catholyte. Anion exchange resins with their basic properties can separate the formate anion from the catholyte mixture as an alternative to energy intensive distillation. In this work, three anion exchange resins with increasing basicity order: Amberlite IRA-96 < Amberlite IRA-910 < Ambersep 900 are tested to separate FA in the presence of aqueous solution of potassium bicarbonate catholyte with varying levels of resin and FA. Kinetics and equilibrium studies data for the FA adsorption are interpreted using several kinetics and isotherm models. The kinetics data fit well with a pseudo-first-order model at high initial FA concentrations and a pseudo-second-order model at low initial FA concentrations. The experimental data can be best explained with the Freundlich isotherm model. The fitted results show that strongly basic Ambersep 900 is more effective at separating FA, with a maximum adsorption capacity of 336.7 mg/g compared to Amberlite IRA-96 (275.2 mg/g) and Amberlite IRA-910 (209.2 mg/g) in neutral water. However, weakly basic Amberlite IRA-96 (110.8 mg/g) can separate FA more efficiently from potassium bicarbonate catholyte than Amberlite IRA-910 (99.9 mg/g) and Ambersep 900 (40.0 mg/g). As a result, competitive adsorption occurs in the presence of potassium bicarbonate catholyte, but the formic acid adsorption capacity is still sufficient for adequate separation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Reversible Reactions, Mesh Size, and Segmental Dynamics Control Penetrant Diffusion in Ethylene Vitrimers

The diffusion of two aromatic dyes with nearly identical sizes was measured in ethylene vitrimers with precise linker lengths and borate ester cross-links using fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP). One dye possessed a reactive hydroxyl group, while the second was inert. The reaction of the hydroxyl group with the network is slow relative to the hopping times of the dye, resulting in a large slowdown by a factor of 50 for a reactive probe molecule. A kinetic model was fit to the fluorescence intensity data to determine rate constants for the reversible reaction of the dye from the network, which confirms the role of slow reaction kinetics. A second network cross-linker was also investigated with a substituted boronic ester showing ∼10,000 times faster exchange kinetics. In this system, the two dyes show the same diffusion coefficient, as the reaction is no longer the rate-limiting step. The role of dense meshes on small and large dyes is also discussed in the context of the existing theories. Finally, these results highlight the potential of dynamic networks to control penetrant transport through synergistic effects of the mesh size, dynamic bond kinetics, and penetrant–network interactions.

confinement↗

In Situ X-ray Scattering Reveals Coarsening Rates of Superlattices Self-Assembled from Electrostatically Stabilized Metal Nanocrystals Depend Nonmonotonically on Driving Force

Self-assembly of colloidal nanocrystals (NCs) into superlattices (SLs) is an appealing strategy to design hierarchically organized materials with promising functionalities. Mechanistic studies are still needed to uncover the design principles for SL self-assembly, but such studies have been difficult to perform due to the fast time and short length scales of NC systems. To address this challenge, we developed an apparatus to directly measure the evolving phases in situ and in real time of an electrostatically stabilized Au NC solution before, during, and after it is quenched to form SLs using small-angle X-ray scattering. By developing a quantitative model, we fit the time-dependent scattering patterns to obtain the phase diagram of the system and the kinetics of the colloidal and SL phases as a function of varying quench conditions. The extracted phase diagram is consistent with particles whose interactions are short in range relative to their diameter. We find the degree of SL order is primarily determined by fast (subsecond) initial nucleation and growth kinetics, while coarsening at later times depends nonmonotonically on the driving force for self-assembly. We validate these results by direct comparison with simulations and use them to suggest dynamic design principles to optimize the crystallinity within a finite time window. The combination of this measurement methodology, quantitative analysis, and simulation should be generalizable to elucidate and better control the microscopic self-assembly pathways of a wide range of bottom-up assembled systems and architectures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ecosystem Water‐Saving Timescale Varies Spatially With Typical Drydown Length

Abstract Stomatal optimization theory is a commonly used framework for modeling how plants regulate transpiration in response to the environment. Most stomatal optimization models assume that plants instantaneously optimize a reward function such as carbon gain. However, plants are expected to optimize over longer timescales given the rapid environmental variability they encounter. There are currently no observational constraints on these timescales. Here, a new stomatal model is developed and is used to analyze the timescales over which stomatal closure is optimized. The proposed model assumes plants maximize carbon gain subject to the constraint that they cannot draw down soil moisture below a critical value. The reward is integrated over time, after being weighted by a discount factor that represents the timescale ( τ ) that a plant considers when optimizing stomatal conductance to save water. The model is simple enough to be analytically solvable, which allows the value of τ to be inferred from observations of stomatal behavior under known environmental conditions. The model is fitted to eddy covariance data in a range of ecosystems, finding the value of τ that best predicts the dynamics of evapotranspiration at each site. Across 82 sites, the climate metrics with the strongest correlation to τ are measures of the average number of dry days between rainfall events. Values of τ are similar in magnitude to the longest such dry period encountered in an average year. The results here shed light on which climate characteristics shape spatial variations in ecosystem‐level water use strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights Into Seismicity Associated With Flexibly Operating Enhanced Geothermal System From Real‐Time Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have the capacity to broaden the accessible resource pool for geothermal power generation. Traditionally viewed as a “baseload” resource, their flexible operation might also enable dispatchable load‐following generation and long‐term energy storage, aligning them with the evolving landscape of decarbonized electricity systems. However, increasing permeability and extracting energy during EGS operations can induce microseismic events; for many prior EGS efforts, some associated seismicity has been observed. While energetically beneficial, the flexibility of EGS operations prompts our inquiry into whether new types of operations will yield previously unseen seismicity patterns. We demonstrate the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with real‐time edge computing to monitor seismicity during a pilot test of a cyclically operated EGS facility at the Blue Mountain geothermal field. Our focus lies in uncovering seismicity insights from the real‐time microseismic catalog, particularly during load‐following dispatchability tests simulating flexible EGS operation. Here, we find that variations in pore pressure consistently correlate with seismicity, and that controlling pressure cycles during flexible operations appears to constrain microseismic activity during subsequent cycles. The spatio‐temporal evolution of microseismic clouds recorded during cyclic injection cycles fits diffusive models over our available observation period. Additionally, seismicity elevation lags behind pore pressure increases, likely due to pressure diffusion to the fracture system boundary. Through real‐time monitoring, we offer novel insights into seismicity associated with flexibly operating EGS. Our findings suggest that leveraging DAS and edge computing can inform EGS operations and help mitigate induced seismicity.

Chamarczuk, Michal [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (Unite↗