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Quartz crystal oscillators measurement of flicker noise spectrum for frequency fluctuation - effects of long term stability on definition and measurement of short term frequency stability
Long term hemodynamic changes in dogs under high partial pressure of oxygen
High temperature behavior and long-term stability of lithium drifted silicon surface barrier charged particle detectors
Electrical and thermal characteristics of silicon germanium RTG under variety load conditions in long term operation
Atmospheric Explorer C and E satellite data are employed for a long-term analysis of the behavior of thermospheric hydrogen with respect to the 11 yr solar cycle. The data covered the period 1974-79 (increasing solar activity) and comprised in situ ionospheric (F region) and neutral atmospheric data. The data were analyzed statistically to characterize low latitude hydrogen behavior, e.g., the diurnal variation and mean concentration over the 5 yr data sampling period. Both the mean and daily maximum/minimum ratio (DMMR) varied with the solar F index. The escaping flux of H ions became a contant around 1000 K. Increasing thermospheric temperatures lowered the DMMR value. However, the DMMR values calculated were consistently large enough to require inclusion of neutral winds and/or diurnal variations in charge exchange fluxes moving in and out of the plasmasphere in any model for thermospheric hydrogen behavior.
The long-term dynamical evolution of 21 variational orbits for the intermediate-period asteroid 1991 DA was followed for up to +/-10(exp 5) years from the present. 1991 DA is close to the 2:7 resonance with Jupiter; it has avoided close encounters, within 1 AU, with this planet for at least the past 30,000 years, even at the node crossing. The future evolution typically shows no close encounters with Jupiter within at least 50,000 years. This corresponds to the mean time between node crossings with either Jupiter or Saturn. Close encounters with Saturn and Jupiter lead to a chaotic evolution for the whole ensemble, while secular perturbations cause large-amplitude swings in eccentricity and inclination (the latter covering the range 15 deg approximately less than i approximately less than 85 deg) which correlate with deep excursions of the perihelion distance to values much less than 1 AU. These variations are similar to those found in P/Machholz and a variety of other high-inclination orbits, e.g., P/Hartley-IRAS. We emphasize the connection between the orbital evolution of 1991 DA and that of Halley-type comets. If 1991 DA was once a comet, it is not surprising that it is now extinct.
Model equations are presented for approximate methods simulating the long-term behavior of composite materials and structures in hot/humid service environments. These equations allow laminate property upgradings with time, and can account for the effects of service environments on creep response. These methodologies are illustrated for various individual and coupled temperature/moisture, longitudinal/transverse, and composite material type cases. Creep deformation is noted to rise dramatically for cases of matrix-borne, but not of fiber-borne, loading in hot, humid environments; the coupled influence of temperature and moisture is greater than a mere combination of their individual influences.
The orbit of P/Swift-Tuttle is investigated by way of a long term integration forward to +2392 and backward to -702.
This document presents the findings of the 2014 Long Term Monitoring (LTM) that was completed at the Wilson Corners site, located at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The goals of the 2014 annual LTM event were to evaluate the groundwater flow direction and gradient and to monitor the vertical and downgradient horizontal extent of the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in groundwater at the site. The LTM activities consisted of an annual groundwater sampling event in December 2014, which included the collection of water levels from the LTM wells. During the annual groundwater sampling event, depth to groundwater was measured and VOC samples were collected using passive diffusion bags (PDBs) from 30 monitoring wells. In addition to the LTM sampling, additional assessment sampling was performed at the site using low-flow techniques based on previous LTM results and assessment activities. Assessment of monitoring well MW0052DD was performed by collecting VOC samples using low-flow techniques before and after purging 100 gallons from the well. Monitoring well MW0064 was sampled to supplement shallow VOC data north of Hot Spot 2 and east of Hot Spot 4. Monitoring well MW0089 was sampled due to its proximity to MW0090. MW0090 is screened in a deeper interval and had an unexpected detection of trichloroethene (TCE) during the 2013 LTM, which was corroborated during the March 2014 verification sampling. Monitoring well MW0130 was sampled to provide additional VOC data beneath the semi-confining clay layer in the Hot Spot 2 area.
This document presents the findings of the 2015 Long Term Monitoring (LTM) that was completed at the Wilson Corners site, located at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration John F. Kennedy Space Center, Florida. The objectives of the 2015 LTM event were to evaluate the groundwater flow direction and gradient, to monitor the vertical and horizontal extent of the volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including the upgradient and sidegradient extents, which are monitored every five years), and to monitor select locations internal to the dissolved groundwater plume. The 2015 LTM event included several upgradient and sidegradient monitoring wells that are not sampled annually to verify the extent of VOCs in this portion of the site. The December 2015 LTM groundwater sampling event included, depth to groundwater measurements, 40 VOC samples collected using passive diffusion bags, and one VOC sample collected using low-flow techniques. Additionally, monitoring well MW0052DD was overdrilled and abandoned using rotasonic drilling techniques. The following conclusions can be made based on the 2015 LTM results: groundwater flow is generally to the west with northwest and southwest flow components from the water table to approximately 55 feet below land surface (ft BLS); peripheral monitoring wells generally delineate VOCs to groundwater cleanup target levels (GCTLs) except for monitoring wells MW0088, MW0090, MW0095, and NPSHMW0039, which had vinyl chloride (VC) concentrations near the GCTL and MW0062, which had trichloroethene (TCE), cis-1,2-dichloroethenen (cDCE), and VC concentrations above natural attenuation default concentrations (NADCs); VOCs in interior downgradient wells generally fluctuate within historic ranges except for monitoring wells in the north-northwest portion of the site, which have increasing VC concentrations indicating potential plume migration and expansion; Historically, the vertical extents of the VOCs were delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 60 ft BLS (MW0083 through MW0086, and MW0078). The 2015 LTM results indicate that concentrations of daughter product cDCE is greater than the NADC in MW0078 and that cDCE and VC are greater than NADCs in MW0130. TCE was greater than the GCTL in monitoring well MW130 and not detected above method detection limits (9 micrograms per Liter) in monitoring well MW0078. No GCTL exceedances were identified in monitoring wells MW0083 or MW0086; the dissolved plume footprint appears generally stable, though not fully delineated by monitoring well data in the northeast portion of the site; and 2015 LTM results generally support the existing Conceptual Site Model. Geosyntec recommends modifying the LTM program, collecting a verification sample from monitoring well MW0062, and performing a direct push technology instigation in the northnortheastern portion of the site. A cluster of monitoring wells (MW0132 [2 to 12 ft BLS], MW0133 [15 to 25 ft BLS], and MW0134 [29 to 34 ft BLS]) is proposed to delineate impacts in the northnortheast portion of the site. Geosyntec recommends installation of a vertical extent well in the center of the site (Hot Spot 2 area) post-remediation implementation.
This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2019 and 2020 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit 001, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. Adaptive site management is being utilized through ongoing assessment, design, and interim measures. This approach also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code. The goal of LTM at this site is threefold: to determine groundwater flow characteristics, monitor the downgradient concentration trends, and monitor select locations internal to the groundwater plume. Every 5 years, upgradient and side-gradient monitoring wells are sampled to verify delineation. The last time this was performed was in 2015. Sampling of these wells in 2020 was replaced with the direct push technology investigations in October 2020 and April 2021. The activities presented in this report include three field events: (1) December 2019 -groundwater gauging of 38 monitoring wells and sampling of 36 monitoring wells; (2) May 2020 - groundwater sampling of 7 monitoring wells; and (3) December 2020 - groundwater gauging of 49 monitoring wells and sampling of 43 monitoring wells. During the December 2019 and May 2020 events, monitoring wells were sampled using passive diffusion bags and were analyzed for a “full list” of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including Freon 113. During the December 2020 event, the low flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a “select list” of VOCs, including Freon 113. The following conclusions can be made based on the 2019 and 2020 LTM results: •In December 2019 and December 2020, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west with the individual zones only varying by occasional northerly and southerly components. This is generally consistent with historical observations at the site. •The GCTL plume continues to extend both horizontally and vertically beyond our current monitoring well network. •The vertical extent of VOCs was historically generally delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet bls. The results from the two vertical extent monitoring wells WILC-MW0078 and WILC-MW0130 that were sampled during the 2019 and 2020 LTM indicate that groundwater VOC concentrations in both wells were greater than the GCTL. •Freon 113 was not detected above GCTLs during the 2019 and 2020 LTM events. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed during this reporting period, including recent DPT groundwater sampling conducted for the implementation of an air sparge system, the following recommendations are provided: •Install 10 new monitoring wells, which will be sampled along with 49 existing monitoring wells, to assist with delineation of the low concentration plume. The wells are listed inTable 4-1, and the proposed locations are presented on Figures4 -1 through 4-5. (Figures 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, and 4-5 also show updated plumes and proposed performance monitoring well locations. This information will be discussed and presented under a separate cover.) •Modify the annual LTM sampling plan as presented inTable 4-1. •Sampling for future events at the site will be conducted using low flow pumping methods. The next annual LTM sampling event is currently planned for December 2021. Please note the 10 new monitoring wells will not be installed before this event but will be installed as part of the upcoming IM construction and will be sampled during baseline sampling, along with the 49 existing monitoring wells. Following this sampling event, it is recommended that the Annual LTM be combined with the performance monitoring under the IM implementation, and LTM be temporarily discontinued. Objectives of the 2021 LTM are to: (i) evaluate groundwater gradient and flow direction by collecting depth to water measurements from LTM wells; (ii) continue monitoring the peripheral VOC trends in the northern, southern, and western portions of the site by monitoring existing wells and installing and monitoring new wells as recommended; and (iii) monitor select internal plume wells.
The ability of satellite instruments to accurately observe long-term changes in atmospheric temperature depends on many factors including the absolute accuracy of the measurement, the stability of the calibration of the instrument, the stability of the satellite orbit, and the stability of the numerical algorithm that produces the temperature data. We present an example of algorithm instability recently discovered in the temperature dataset from the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite. The instability resulted in derived temperatures that were substantially colder than anticipated from mid-December 2019 to mid-2022. This algorithm-induced change in temperature over one to two years corresponded to the expected change over several decades from increasing anthropogenic CO2. This paper highlights the importance of algorithm stability in developing Geospace Data Records (GDRs) for Earth’s mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A corrected version (Version 2.08) of the temperatures from SABER is described.
Here we propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We develop a heterogeneous compartmental model that accounts for the heterogeneity of the time-varying spread and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside LTC facilities, which is characterized by time-dependent stochastic processes and time-independent parameters in ~ 1500 dimensions after discretization. To infer these parameters, we use reported data on the number of confirmed, hospitalized, and deceased cases with suitable post-processing in both a deterministic inversion approach with appropriate regularization as a first step, followed by Bayesian inversion with proper prior distributions. To address the curse of dimensionality and the ill-posedness of the high-dimensional inference problem, we propose use of a dimension-independent projected Stein variational gradient descent method, and demonstrate the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the inverse problem. We present inference results with quantified uncertainties for both New Jersey and Texas, which experienced different epidemic phases and patterns. Moreover, we also present forecasting and validation results based on the empirical posterior samples of our inference for the future trajectory of COVID-19.
Riparian and instream restorations are commonly implemented to improve ecosystem condition. However, very few restoration activities are monitored for multiple years to assess long-term effectiveness. At the Department of Defense’s Fort Benning Military Installation (FBMI) in west-central Georgia, two experimental restoration projects (ephemeral drainage revitalization and instream habitat augmentation [i.e., coarse woody debris (CWD) additions]) were implemented ~14 years ago with the goal of reducing environmental impacts of military training activities. A SERDP project found that instream restoration improved some aspects of ecosystem function and community structure but not others. The objective of the current study was to re-evaluate the effect of these restoration practices on stream ecosystem processes ~14 years after implementation.
This guide is for public utility commission staff, state energy office staff, and other stakeholders who review model results for utility integrated resource plans (IRPs). It builds on the "Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans," and delves into more advanced topics that were not included or not fully covered in the beginner's guide. The topics included here are evolving and may or may not be important to the resource plan you are evaluating. Due to limitations in resources, it's also not possible to give the highest level of detail or attention to every topic within a plan. An important part of planning for an uncertain future involves deciding which topics deserve the most focus and resources. It's all about prioritizing efforts where they will have the most impact or be most beneficial despite uncertainties ahead. As with the beginner's guide, we intend for this guide to help improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening understanding and dialogue between electricity system planners and relevant stakeholders. The following information is designed to allow you to better engage in the planning process by evaluating results, asking questions, and thinking through what is most important. We allocate significant discussion in the guide to electricity demand evolution, demand-side resources, and resource adequacy. These topics have garnered increasing attention, hence their prominence in this guide. Other topics are also presented, but their incorporation into the planning process might vary based on interest and relevance. The absence of certain topics doesn't diminish their importance; rather, it reflects the reality that in planning, trade-offs necessitate prioritizing certain aspects over others.
Abstract Evaluation of long-term temporal and spatial climatic change in mountainous regions is a critical challenge because of the interactive effects of multiple land and climatic factors and processes. Here we present the application of the statistical framework to the assessment of changes of climatic conditions, using data from 17 meteorological stations across the East River watershed near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA, and spanning the period from 1966 to 2021. The framework is developed based on (1) a time-series analysis of daily, monthly, and yearly averaged meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, etc.), (2) evaluation and time series analysis of potential evapotranspiration (ET o ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), aridity index (AI), standard precipitation index (SPI) and standard precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and (3) a temporal-spatial climatic zonation of the studied area based on the hierarchical clustering and PCA analysis of the SPEI, because the SPEI can be considered an integrative characteristic of the changes of climatic conditions. The Budyko model, with the application of the Penman–Monteith equation for the estimation of ET o , was used to determine the ET. The time series analysis of the AI is used to identify the periods with energy limited and water limited conditions. Hierarchical clustering of site locations for the three temporal segments of the SPEI showed a significant temporal-spatial shifts, indicating that dynamic climatic processes drive zonation patterns. Therefore, the watershed climatic zonation requires periodic re-evaluation based on the structural time series analysis of meteorological and water balance data.
The authors designed and executed the integrated assessment modeling for the United States long-term strategy. They bring diverse expertise to the modeling and analysis of United States decarbonization. Russell Horowitz, Matthew Binsted, and Haewon McJeon are scientists at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland. Allen Fawcett, James McFarland, and Morgan Browning are economists at the Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Economics Branch. Claire Henly is White House Fellow at the Office of the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. Nathan Hultman is the Director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland.
Triassic rift basins of the eastern United States present a potential option for long–term carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. Exposed and buried basins are located near large point CO 2 sources. Because of their similar origins, comparable fill successions indicate a level of reproducibility that can be conveyed between basins. The thick rock successions of the exposed Culpeper and Gettysburg basins served as proxies for understanding of the basin sequences. Their study allowed recognition of five mappable assemblages of rock types, herein termed lithofacies associations. These lithofacies associations were formed by alluvial fan, braided and meandering streams and marginal and distal lake depositional processes.Stratigraphic architecture of the lithofacies associations within exposed basins suggests a vertical succession that consists of an initial coarse-grained fluvial succession that is progressively replaced upward and basinward by finer grained lacustrine deposits. Along the faulted margins of the basins alluvial fans transitioning to fluvial delta deposits reflect lateral progradation and contemporaneous lateral components of the basin filling.To test the model devised in exposed basins, facies associations were developed for the buried Taylorsville Basin. This basin preserves over 8,000 feet of Triassic rocks that are concealed beneath more than 2,000 feet of Cretaceous and Tertiary Coastal Plain sediments. Composition and stratigraphic architecture of these rocks are similar to those observed in exposed basins. Infilling of the basin was the result of vertical aggradation and lateral progradation of coarse-grained to fine-grained facies. Based upon study of outcrops in the Culpeper and Gettysburg basins, groups of recurring lithologic facies were identified as the fundamental constructs of the basin’s sediment infilling. These groups of facies, termed lithofacies associations, represent an amalgamation of lithologic components from broadly similar depositional systems. These lithologic associations were then extrapolated into the exposed and buried portions of the Taylorsville basins. This effort determined that Triassic rift basins provide several avenues for potential study of geologic sequestration of carbon. The characteristic rift basin succession in the basins presents possible reservoir targets within the marginal fluvial deposits. Furthermore, intrusive and extrusive mafic bodies present a potential source of fracture porosity that could serve as CO 2 reservoirs. Porosity values from thin section analysis of exposed basin samples are higher in alluvial fan and braided fluvial lithofacies. Porosity is highest in samples that show less compaction, due to a lack of ductile lithic fragments and/or higher stratigraphic position. Log data from the Taylorsville Basin indicates that porosity and permeability values in basin marginal fluvial strata are elevated. Near the center of the basin, porosity and permeability values are greatly reduced, primarily owing to the fine-grained character of the lacustrine deposits. Some Triassic basins also contain thick intervals of concordant extrusive and intrusive mafic igneous rocks. These igneous bodies are potential CO 2 reservoirs for several reasons. Firstly, extrusive lava flows provide potential storage in the layers of primary porosity that occur in the vesicules formed at the top of lava flows. Secondly, both lava flows and subsurface igneous sills exhibit extensive fracture porosity produced by the rapid cooling of the flows and intrusions. Thirdly, these igneous rocks are mafic in composition, and studies have shown that iron- and magnesium-rich mafic rocks provide sequestration opportunities through carbonate remineralization. Lastly, extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks are invariably preserved within fine-grained lake deposits. These lacustrine sediments can serve as a fine-grained confining layer that encases the igneous rocks both above and below.