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DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ultimate Limits of Future Colliders

With seven operational colliders in the world and two under construction, the international particle physics community not only actively explores options for the next facilities for detailed studies of the Higgs/electroweak physics and beyond-the-LHC energy frontier, but seeks a clear picture of the limits of the colliding beams method. In this paper, we try to consolidate various recent efforts in identifying physics limits of colliders in conjunction with societal sustainability, and share our thoughts about the perspective of reaching the ultimate quantum limit.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulations of Nb$_3$Sn Layer RF Field Limits Due to Thermal Impedance

Nb3Sn performance in RF fields is limited to fields far below its superheating critical field. Poor thermal conductivity of Nb3Sn has been speculated to be the reason behind this limit. In order to better understand the contribution of Nb3Sn thermal conductivity to its RF performance, we simulated numerically with Matlab program*(based on SRIMP and HEAT codes) thelimiting fields under different realistic conditions. Our simulations indicate that limiting fields observed presently in the experiments with RF fields cannot be explained by the thermal impedance of Nb3Sn alone. The results change significantly in the presence of higher losses due to extrinsic mechanisms.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The reverse quantum limit and its implications for unconventional quantum oscillations in YbB 12

The quantum limit in a Fermi liquid, realized when a single Landau level is occupied in strong magnetic fields, gives rise to unconventional states, including the fractional quantum Hall effect and excitonic insulators. Stronger interactions in metals with nearly localized $f$-electron degrees of freedom increase the likelihood of these unconventional states. However, access to the quantum limit is typically impeded by the tendency of $f$-electrons to polarize in a strong magnetic field, consequently weakening the interactions. In this study, we propose that the quantum limit in such systems must be approached in reverse, starting from an insulating state at zero magnetic field. In this scenario, Landau levels fill in the reverse order compared to regular metals and are closely linked to a field-induced insulator-to-metal transition. We identify YbB 12 as a prime candidate for observing this effect and propose the presence of an excitonic insulator state near this transition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially Resolved Near Field Spectroscopy of Vibrational Polaritons at the Small N Limit

Vibrational polaritons, which have been primarily studied in Fabry–Pérot cavities with a large number of molecules (N ~ 10 6 –10 10 ) coupled to the resonator mode, exhibit various experimentally observed effects on chemical reactions. However, the exact mechanism is elusively understood from the theoretical side, as the large number of molecules involved in an experimental strong coupling condition cannot be represented completely in simulations. This discrepancy between theory and experiment arises from computational descriptions of polariton systems typically being limited to only a few molecules, thus failing to represent the experimental conditions adequately. To address this mismatch, we used surface phonon polariton (SPhP) resonators as an alternative platform for vibrational strong coupling. SPhPs exhibit strong electromagnetic confinement on the surface and thus allow for coupling to a small number of molecules. As a result, this platform can enhance nonlinearity and slow down relaxation to the dark modes. In this study, we fabricated a pillar-shaped quartz resonator and then coated it with a thin layer of cobalt phthalocyanine (CoPc). By employing scattering-type scanning near-field optical microscopy (s-SNOM), we spatially investigated the dependency of vibrational strong coupling on the spatially varying electromagnetic field strength and demonstrated strong coupling with 38,000 molecules only–reaching to the small N limit. Through s-SNOM analysis, we found that strong coupling was observed primarily on the edge of the quartz pillar and the apex of the s-SNOM tip, where the maximum field enhancement occurs. In contrast, a weak resonance signal and lack of coupling were observed closer to the center of the pillar. This work demonstrates the importance of spatially resolved polariton systems in nanophotonic platforms and lays a foundation to explore polariton chemistry and chemical dynamics at the small N limit–one step closer to reconcile with high-level quantum calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emergent Behaviors and the Limits of Large Language Model Generalization

Over the past couple years, large language models (LLMs) have rapidly grown in size and performance across wide numbers of tasks, leading some to herald them as machine learning models with truly “general” capabilities. We address some of the ways that the language used to describe these models can be both deceptive and a poor framing for making progress towards understanding their capabilities, and also review arguments on to what extent these models can represent and interact with the meaning of language. Emergent behaviors in these highly complex models are unpredictable and research into understanding them is still in early phases, which limits the strength of claims of generality about them. Moreover, while these models demonstrate surprising emergent reasoning capabilities on many tasks, there are still many limitations in generalization that overall high benchmark performance can hide. We review the literature showcasing limitations of LLMs as well as techniques to mitigate or overcome these challenges, while also highlighting how fundamental problems in model evaluation may prevent true claims of generality. We conclude with a practical section on using LLMs on real world problems while appropriately evaluating and validating these tasks to prevent or mitigate the downstream impacts of incorrect results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for: Rooftop solar and energy storage programs can remediate energy-limiting behaviors of energy insecure households

Energy insecurity affects most low-income households in the United States. Energy insecurity, which is characterized by a household’s inability to afford their energy needs, often leads to risky choices, causing other forms of insecurity including food and health. Although there are government programs designed to provide relief to low-income households that face energy insecurity, eligibility for these programs is usually determined by household income, and those with incomes close to the threshold face uncertainty or may be left out. In many cases, these households turn to energy-limiting behaviors as a strategy to lower their electric utility bills. This paper explores the relationship between energy insecurity and energy-limiting behaviors to investigate alternative solutions that target the households that may fall out of available energy assistance programs. We explore the role of battery energy storage systems and rooftop solar photovoltaics in improving energy affordability. The results show that residential rooftop solar and behind-the-meter energy storage can offset two-thirds of the bill savings that households attain through energy-limiting behavior. Household renewable energy systems could complement existing energy assistance programs to provide long-term bill relief, enabling occupants to live in their homes with comfort and dignity. This dataset is intended to allow readers to reproduce and customize the analysis performed in this work to their benefit.

Kerby, Jessica [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the limitations of commercial sensors and models for supporting marine carbon dioxide removal monitoring: a case study

Several unknowns remain surrounding marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) practices and capabilities. Current in-situ sensor technology is limited (primarily pH and pCO 2 ), requiring calculations and assumptions to estimate changes in carbonate chemistry parameters, including total alkalinity (TA). Considering that cost, energy consumption, and accuracy of commercial sensors can vary by orders of magnitude, understanding how well existing sensors perform in an mCDR context is important for this emerging community. Likewise, documenting sensor limitations and how relatively simple models can optimize sensor deployments will improve MRV efforts and support protocol development. Here we (1) compare performance a variety of commercially available sensors in a blind mesocosm experiment simulating ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), and how sensor performance impacted carbonate chemistry estimates; (2) evaluate if sensors can distinguish the OAE signal from natural variability during a small scale OAE field test in Sequim Bay, WA, USA, and (3) use an idealized ocean biogeochemistry model to explore optimal sensor network design based on (1) and (2). Our mesocosm results indicate that correctly constraining pH uncertainty will be critical for accurate TA estimates with current sensor technology compared to the less impactful variation caused by uncertainty in pCO 2 (pH data that are presented throughout are reported on the total scale (pH T ) unless otherwise noted). Our pilot field test demonstrated that sensors were capable of distinguishing mCDR signatures from natural variability under optimal real-world conditions. Idealized modeling simulations of the field test showed that a range of sparse and dense (3 to 100) sensors sampling areas of detectable increases will underestimate the net change in surface pH by at least 35–55%, at both realistic and highly elevated alkalinity input levels. We also highlight the limitations of current sensing technology for MRV, and the importance of ocean biogeochemistry models as critical tools for predicting when and where mCDR signals will be detectable using available sensors. Overall, our findings suggest that commercially available pCO 2 sensors and some pH sensors will form an important backbone for mCDR MRV tasks, though complete MRV characterization will require these data to be used in combination with other tools.

OAE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Defining Detection Limits for Continuous Monitoring Systems for Methane Emissions at Oil and Gas Facilities

Networks of fixed-point continuous monitoring systems are becoming widely used in the detection and quantification of methane emissions from oil and gas facilities in the United States. Regulatory agencies and operators are developing performance metrics for these systems, such as minimum detection limits. Performance characteristics, such as minimum detection limits, would ideally be expressed in emission rate units; however, performance parameters such as detection limits for a continuous monitoring system (CMS) will depend on meteorological conditions, the characteristics of emissions at the site where the CMS is deployed, the positioning of CMS devices in relation to the emission sources, and the amount of time allowed for the CMS to detect an emission source. This means that certifying the performance of a CMS will require test protocols with well-defined emission rates and durations; initial protocols are now being used in field tests. Field testing results will vary, however, depending on meteorological conditions and the time allowed for detection. This work demonstrates methods for evaluating CMS performance characteristics using dispersion modeling and defines an approach for normalizing test results to standard meteorological conditions using dispersion modeling.

Chen, Qining (ORCID:0000000316908091)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Voltage Service Limits Smart Contract Using Distributed Ledger Technology for Electrical Utility Grid with Customer-Owned Generator

Modern electrical grids face growing stability risks from customer-owned generators, especially at points of common couplings (PCCs). Disruptive behavior from power-electronic sources can cause protective relays to isolate problematic generators, making measurement integrity critical. This article presents a distributed ledger technology (DLT) approach that uses smart contracts to evaluate PCC voltage measurements and trigger backup breaker operations. The approach is framed as a verifiable, multi-organization attestation and audit layer, not as a real-time control security mechanism. In the proposed architecture, voltage measurements from a hardware protective relay are anchored on a DLT through the Cyber Grid Guard (CGG) system for attestation by both the grid utility and customer-owned generator. A Voltage Service Limits (VSLs) smart contract evaluates the on-chain measurements against allowable phase-voltage limits derived from the ANSI C84.1 standard. The framework is validated in a hardware-relay-in-the-loop test bed under sustained-undervoltage, sustained-overvoltage, and transient line-to-line fault scenarios. The results show that the VSL smart contract can process these measurements and issue backup breaker actions consistent with the defined service-limit criteria, demonstrating the DLT potential as a verifiable audit layer at the PCC that complements primary protection.

cyber security↗

DOE OSTI2022

Limits on Astrophysical Antineutrinos with the KamLAND Experiment

Abstract We report on a search for electron antineutrinos ( ν ¯ e ) from astrophysical sources in the neutrino energy range 8.3–30.8 MeV with the KamLAND detector. In an exposure of 6.72 kton-year of the liquid scintillator, we observe 18 candidate events via the inverse beta decay reaction. Although there is a large background uncertainty from neutral current atmospheric neutrino interactions, we find no significant excess over background model predictions. Assuming several supernova relic neutrino spectra, we give upper flux limits of 60–110 cm −2 s −1 (90% confidence level, CL) in the analysis range and present a model-independent flux. We also set limits on the annihilation rates for light dark matter pairs to neutrino pairs. These data improve on the upper probability limit of 8 B solar neutrinos converting into ν ¯ e , P ν e → ν ¯ e < 3.5 × 10 − 5 (90% CL) assuming an undistorted ν ¯ e shape. This corresponds to a solar ν ¯ e flux of 60 cm −2 s −1 (90% CL) in the analysis energy range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Model for Pair Production Limit Cycles in Pulsar Magnetospheres

Abstract It was recently proposed that the electric field oscillation as a result of self-consistent e ± pair production may be the source of coherent radio emission from pulsars. Direct particle-in-cell simulations of this process have shown that the screening of the parallel electric field by this pair cascade manifests as a limit cycle, as the parallel electric field is recurrently induced when pairs produced in the cascade escape from the gap region. In this work, we develop a simplified time-dependent kinetic model of e ± pair cascades in pulsar magnetospheres that can reproduce the limit-cycle behavior of pair production and electric field screening. This model includes the effects of a magnetospheric current, the escape of e ± , as well as the dynamic dependence of pair production rate on the plasma density and energy. Using this simple theoretical model, we show that the power spectrum of electric field oscillations averaged over many limit cycles is compatible with the observed pulsar radio spectrum.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS1968

Computer program determines exact two-sided tolerance limits for normal distributions

Computer program determines by numerical integration the exact statistical two-sided tolerance limits, when the proportion between the limits is at least a specified number. The program is limited to situations in which the underlying probability distribution for the population sampled is the normal distribution with unknown mean and variance.

Friedman, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS1969

Millivolt signal limiter

Low-voltage limiter circuit suppresses the output of platinum probes at temperatures beyond their operating range. The limiter circuit comprises an operational amplifier with a dual feedback loop. The signal limiter is useful in low-voltage instrumentation circuits normally operable or set for cryogenic temperatures.

Hansen, I. G.↗

NASA NTRS1970

Transistor current and voltage limiting switch

Limiting circuit protects the main power supply of electronic modules and limits the current drawn by each module should a short circuit occur. It limits current within one mA when used with direct current of either polarity, or with pulse or ac power sources from direct current to 100 kHz.

Hilbert, E. E.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Ground and flight test methods for determining limit cycle and structural resonance characteristics of aircraft stability augmentation systems

Performance criteria and test techniques are applied to stability augmentation systems (SAS) during ground testing to predict objectionable limit cycles and preclude structural resonance during flight. Factors that give rise to these problems, means of suppressing their effects, trade-offs to be considered, and ground test methods that have been developed are discussed. SAS performance predicted on the basis of these tests is compared with flight data obtained from three lifting body vehicles and the X-15 research airplane. Limit cycle and structural resonance test criteria, based upon ground and flight experience and data, were successfully applied to these vehicles. The criteria used were: The limit cycle amplitude (SAS gain multiplied by peak-to-peak angular rate) shall not exceed 0.5 deg for the highest product of control power and SAS gain that will be used in flight; the maximum in-flight SAS gain should never exceed 50 percent of the value at which a structural resonance can be sustained during ground test.

Painter, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Stably trapped proton limits for Jupiter

A general introduction to pitch-angle diffusion for Earth and Jupiter magnetospheres is given. The instabilities which might limit the trapped fluxes in the earth magnetosphere are identified as the interchange or ballooning mode, electrostatic loss cone modes, and electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave. The instability theory of the ion cyclotron wave is discussed. This wave can be unstable only if protons can be in cyclotron resonance with the wave. The instability growth rate is proportional to the cyclotron frequency, the fractional number density of fast particles, and the anisotropy of the fast particle distribution. The critical proton energy is the lowest energy for which the stably trapped limit applies, and is calculated to be 150 MeV at L = 2 and for 10 ion pairs/cu cm. Particles above the critical threshold energy are considered and their stability limit is approximately 3 x 10 to the 10th power/sq cm/sec divided by L to the 4th power.

Kennel, C.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Compression of transmission bandwidth requirements for a certain class of band-limited functions.

A study of source-encoding techniques that afford a reduction of data-transmission rates is made with particular emphasis on the compression of transmission bandwidth requirements of band-limited functions. The feasibility of bandwidth compression through analog signal rooting is investigated. It is found that the N-th roots of elements of a certain class of entire functions of exponential type possess contour integrals resembling Fourier transforms, the Cauchy principal values of which are compactly supported on an interval one N-th the size of that of the original function. Exploring this theoretical result, it is found that synthetic roots can be generated, which closely approximate the N-th roots of a certain class of band-limited signals and possess spectra that are essentially confined to a bandwidth one N-th that of the signal subjected to the rooting operation. A source-encoding algorithm based on this principle is developed that allows the compression of data-transmission requirements for a certain class of band-limited signals.

Smith, I. R.↗