Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “large-scale forcing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Limits to the Indirect Aerosol Forcing in Stratocumulus

The indirect radiative forcing of aerosols is poorly constrained by the observational data underlying the simple cloud parameterizations in GCMs. signal of cloud response to increased aerosol concentrations from meteorological noise. Recent satellite observations indicate a significant decrease of cloud water in ship tracks, in contrast to an ensemble of in situ measurements showing no average change in cloud water relative to the surrounding clouds. Both results contradict the expectation of cloud water increasing in polluted clouds. We find through large-eddy simulations of stratocumulus that the trend in the satellite data is likely an artifact of sampling only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud cover increasing with droplet concentrations. The simulations also show that increases in cloud water from suppressing drizzle by increased droplet concentrations are favored at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations. At typical droplet concentrations we find that the Twomey effect on cloud albedo is amplified very little by the secondary indirect effect of drizzle suppression, largely because the absorption of solar radiation by cloud water reduces boundary-layer mixing in the daytime and thereby restricts any possible increase in cloud water from drizzle suppression. The cloud and boundary layer respond to radiative heating variations on a time scale of hours, and on longer time scales respond to imbalances between large-scale horizontal advection and the entrainment of inversion air. We analyze the co-varying response of cloud water, cloud thickness, width of droplet size distributions, and dispersion of the optical depth, as well as the overall response of cloud albedo, to changes in droplet concentrations. We also dissect the underlying physical mechanisms through sensitivity studies. Ship tracks represent an ideal natural laboratory to extricate the

Ackerman, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2006

Large-Scale Hybrid Motor Testing

Hybrid rocket motors can be successfully demonstrated at a small scale virtually anywhere. There have been many suitcase sized portable test stands assembled for demonstration of hybrids. They show the safety of hybrid rockets to the audiences. These small show motors and small laboratory scale motors can give comparative burn rate data for development of different fuel/oxidizer combinations, however questions that are always asked when hybrids are mentioned for large scale applications are - how do they scale and has it been shown in a large motor? To answer those questions, large scale motor testing is required to verify the hybrid motor at its true size. The necessity to conduct large-scale hybrid rocket motor tests to validate the burn rate from the small motors to application size has been documented in several place^'^^.^. Comparison of small scale hybrid data to that of larger scale data indicates that the fuel burn rate goes down with increasing port size, even with the same oxidizer flux. This trend holds for conventional hybrid motors with forward oxidizer injection and HTPB based fuels. While the reason this is occurring would make a great paper or study or thesis, it is not thoroughly understood at this time. Potential causes include the fact that since hybrid combustion is boundary layer driven, the larger port sizes reduce the interaction (radiation, mixing and heat transfer) from the core region of the port. This chapter focuses on some of the large, prototype sized testing of hybrid motors. The largest motors tested have been AMROC s 250K-lbf thrust motor at Edwards Air Force Base and the Hybrid Propulsion Demonstration Program s 250K-lbf thrust motor at Stennis Space Center. Numerous smaller tests were performed to support the burn rate, stability and scaling concepts that went into the development of those large motors.

Story, George↗
NASA NTRS2004

Toward a Global Map of Raindrop Size Distributions: Rain-Type Classification and Its Implications for Validating Global Rainfall Products - Part 1

Variability in the global distribution of precipitation is recognized as a key element in assessing the impact of climate change for life on earth. The response of precipitation to climate forcings is, however, poorly understood because of discrepancies in the magnitude and sign of climatic trends in satellite-based rainfall estimates. Quantifying and ultimately removing these biases is critical for studying the response of the hydrologic cycle to climate change. In addition, estimates of random errors owing to variability in algorithm assumptions on local spatial and temporal scales are critical for establishing how strongly their products should be weighted in data assimilation or model validation applications and for assigning a level of confidence to climate trends diagnosed from the data. This paper explores the potential for refining assumed drop size distributions (DSDs) in global radar rainfall algorithms by establishing a link between satellite observables and information gleaned from regional validation experiments where polarimetric radar, Doppler radar, and disdrometer measurements can be used to infer raindrop size distributions. By virtue of the limited information available in the satellite retrieval framework, the current method deviates from approaches adopted in the ground-based radar community that attempt to relate microphysical processes and resultant DSDs to local meteorological conditions. Instead, the technique exploits the fact that different microphysical pathways for rainfall production are likely to lead to differences in both the DSD of the resulting raindrops and the three-dimensional structure of associated radar reflectivity profiles. Objective rain-type classification based on the complete three-dimensional structure of observed reflectivity profiles is found to partially mitigate random and systematic errors in DSDs implied by differential reflectivity measurements. In particular, it is shown that vertical and horizontal reflectivity structure obtained from spaceborne radar can be used to reproduce significant differences in Z(sub dr) between the easterly and westerly climate regimes observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) field experiment as well as the even larger differences between Amazonian rainfall and that observed in eastern Colorado. As such, the technique offers a potential methodology for placing locally observed DSD information into a global framework.

L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Selection Pressure as an Asset to Develop Reusable, Adaptable Software Systems

The Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) at NASA has over the years developed and honed several reusable architectural components for supporting large-scale data centers with a large customer base. These include a processing system (S4PM) and an archive system (S4PA) based upon a workflow engine called the Simple Scalable Script based Science Processor (S4P) and an online data visualization and analysis system (Giovanni). These subsystems are currently reused internally in a variety of combinations to implement customized data management on behalf of instrument science teams and other science investigators. Some of these subsystems (S4P and S4PM) have also been reused by other data centers for operational science processing. Our experience has been that development and utilization of robust interoperable and reusable software systems can actually flourish in environments defined by heterogeneous commodity hardware systems the emphasis on value-added customer service and the continual goal for achieving higher cost efficiencies. The repeated internal reuse that is fostered by such an environment encourages and even forces changes to the software that make it more reusable and adaptable. Allowing and even encouraging such selective pressures to software development has been a key factor In the success of S4P and S4PM which are now available to the open source community under the NASA Open source Agreement

Berrick, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2010

Minnowbrook VI: 2009 Workshop on Flow Physics and Control for Internal and External Aerodynamics

Topics covered include: Flow Physics and control for Internal and External Aerodynamics (not in TOC...starts on pg13); Breaking CFD Bottlenecks in Gas-Turbine Flow-Path Design; Streamwise Vortices on the Convex Surfaces of Circular Cylinders and Turbomachinery Blading; DNS and Embedded DNS as Tools for Investigating Unsteady Heat Transfer Phenomena in Turbines; Cavitation, Flow Structure and Turbulence in the Tip Region of a Rotor Blade; Development and Application of Plasma Actuators for Active Control of High-Speed and High Reynolds Number Flows; Active Flow Control of Lifting Surface With Flap-Current Activities and Future Directions; Closed-Loop Control of Vortex Formation in Separated Flows; Global Instability on Laminar Separation Bubbles-Revisited; Very Large-Scale Motions in Smooth and Rough Wall Boundary Layers; Instability of a Supersonic Boundary-Layer With Localized Roughness; Active Control of Open Cavities; Amplitude Scaling of Active Separation Control; U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory's Need for Flow Physics and Control With Applications Involving Aero-Optics and Weapon Bay Cavities; Some Issues Related to Integrating Active Flow Control With Flight Control; Active Flow Control Strategies Using Surface Pressure Measurements; Reduction of Unsteady Forcing in a Vaned, Contra-Rotating Transonic Turbine Configuration; Active Flow Control Stator With Coanda Surface; Controlling Separation in Turbomachines; Flow Control on Low-Pressure Turbine Airfoils Using Vortex Generator Jets; Reduced Order Modeling Incompressible Flows; Study and Control of Flow Past Disk, and Circular and Rectangular Cylinders Aligned in the Flow; Periodic Forcing of a Turbulent Axisymmetric Wake; Control of Vortex Breakdown in Critical Swirl Regime Using Azimuthal Forcing; External and Turbomachinery Flow Control Working Group; Boundary Layers, Transitions and Separation; Efficiency Considerations in Low Pressure Turbines; Summary of Conference; and Final Plenary Session Transcript.

LaGraff, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Very Large-Scale Motions in Smooth and Rough Wall Boundary Layers

Structural skeleton of high Reynolds number flow gives insight into smooth and rough walls. (modeling implications not yet clear) Dynamic roughness as a model of "designer" roughness: a) Impose length scale(s) and dominant frequency. b) Irregular roughness well-represented by first "few" POD modes (Christensen, 2009). Experiments and simple model demonstrate: a) Harmonics associated with forcing (and w) important. b) Change to the mean profile (skin friction).

McKeon, Beverley J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Broken Ergodicity in MHD Turbulence in a Spherical Domain

Broken ergodicity (BE) occurs in Fourier method numerical simulations of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. Although naive statistical theory predicts that Fourier coefficients of fluid velocity and magnetic field are zero-mean random variables, numerical simulations clearly show that low-wave-number coefficients have non-zero mean values that can be very large compared to the associated standard deviation. In other words, large-scale coherent structure (i.e., broken ergodicity) in homogeneous MHD turbulence can spontaneously grow out of random initial conditions. Eigenanalysis of the modal covariance matrices in the probability density functions of ideal statistical theory leads to a theoretical explanation of observed BE in homogeneous MHD turbulence. Since dissipation is minimal at the largest scales, BE is also relevant for resistive magnetofluids, as evidenced in numerical simulations. Here, we move beyond model magnetofluids confined by periodic boxes to examine BE in rotating magnetofluids in spherical domains using spherical harmonic expansions along with suitable boundary conditions. We present theoretical results for 3-D and 2-D spherical models and also present computational results from dynamical simulations of 2-D MHD turbulence on a rotating spherical surface. MHD turbulence on a 2-D sphere is affected by Coriolus forces, while MHD turbulence on a 2-D plane is not, so that 2-D spherical models are a useful (and simpler) intermediate stage on the path to understanding the much more complex 3-D spherical case.

Shebalin, John V.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Microphysical, Macrophysical and Radiative Signatures of Volcanic Aerosols in Trade Wind Cumulus Observed by the A-Train

Increased aerosol concentrations can raise planetary albedo not only by reflecting sunlight and increasing cloud albedo, but also by changing cloud amount. However, detecting aerosol effect on cloud amount has been elusive to both observations and modeling due to potential buffering mechanisms and convolution of meteorology. Here through a natural experiment provided by long-tem1 degassing of a low-lying volcano and use of A-Train satellite observations, we show modifications of trade cumulus cloud fields including decreased droplet size, decreased precipitation efficiency and increased cloud amount are associated with volcanic aerosols. In addition we find significantly higher cloud tops for polluted clouds. We demonstrate that the observed microphysical and macrophysical changes cannot be explained by synoptic meteorology or the orographic effect of the Hawaiian Islands. The "total shortwave aerosol forcin", resulting from direct and indirect forcings including both cloud albedo and cloud amount. is almost an order of magnitude higher than aerosol direct forcing alone. Furthermore, the precipitation reduction associated with enhanced aerosol leads to large changes in the energetics of air-sea exchange and trade wind boundary layer. Our results represent the first observational evidence of large-scale increase of cloud amount due to aerosols in a trade cumulus regime, which can be used to constrain the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models. The findings also have implications for volcano-climate interactions and climate mitigation research.

Yuan, T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Alignment and Scaling of Large-Scale Fluctuations in Solar Wind Turbulence

We investigate the dependence of solar wind fluctuations measured by the Wind spacecraft on scale and on the degree of alignment between oppositely directed Elsasser fields. This alignment controls the strength of the non-linear interactions and, therefore, the turbulence. We find that at scales larger than the outer scale of the turbulence the Elsasser fluctuations become on average more anti-aligned as the outer scale is approached from above. Conditioning their structure functions using the alignment angle reveals turbulent scaling of unaligned fluctuations at scales previously believed to lie outside the turbulent cascade in the '1/f range'. We argue that the 1/f range contains a mixture of non-interacting anti-aligned population of Alfven waves and magnetic force-free structures plus a subdominant population of unaligned cascading turbulent fluctuations.

Wicks, R. T.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V.↗
NASA NTRS2014

MHD Turbulence and Magnetic Dynamos

Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much investigation, by greatly extending the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence. The mathematical details of broken ergodicity, in fact, give a quantitative explanation of how coherent structure, dynamic alignment and force-free states appear in turbulent magnetofluids. The relevance of these ideal results to real MHD turbulence occurs because broken ergodicity is most manifest in the ideal case at the largest length scales and it is in these largest scales that a real magnetofluid has the least dissipation, i.e., most closely approaches the behavior of an ideal magnetofluid. Furthermore, the effects grow stronger when cross and magnetic helicities grow large with respect to energy, and this is exactly what occurs with time in a real magnetofluid, where it is called selective decay. The relevance of these results found in ideal MHD turbulence theory to the real world is that they provide at least a qualitative explanation of why confined turbulent magnetofluids, such as the liquid iron that fills the Earth's outer core, produce stationary, large-scale magnetic fields, i.e., the geomagnetic field. These results should also apply to other planets as well as to plasma confinement devices on Earth and in space, and the effects should be manifest if Reynolds numbers are high enough and there is enough time for stationarity to occur, at least approximately. In the presentation, details will be given for both theoretical and numerical results, and references will be provided.

Shebalin, John V↗
NASA NTRS2016

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Cooling↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2016

Nongyrotropic Electrons in Guide Field Reconnection

We apply a scalar measure of nongyrotropy to the electron pressure tensor in a 2D particle-in-cell simulation of guide field reconnection and assess the corresponding electron distributions and the forces that account for the nongyrotropy. The scalar measure reveals that the nongyrotropy lies in bands that straddle the electron diffusion region and the separatrices, in the same regions where there are parallel electric fields. Analysis of electron distributions and fields shows that the nongyrotropy along the inflow and outflow separatrices emerges as a result of multiple populations of electrons influenced differently by large and small-scale parallel electric fields and by gradients in the electric field. The relevant parallel electric fields include large-scale potential ramps emanating from the x-line and sub-ion inertial scale bipolar electron holes. Gradients in the perpendicular electric field modify electrons differently depending on their phase, thus producing nongyrotropy. Magnetic flux violation occurs along portions of the separatrices that coincide with the parallel electric fields. An inductive electric field in the electron EB drift frame thus develops, which has the effect of enhancing nongyrotropies already produced by other mechanisms and under certain conditions producing their own nongyrotropy. Particle tracing of electrons from nongyrotropic populations along the inflows and outflows shows that the striated structure of nongyrotropy corresponds to electrons arriving from different source regions. We also show that the relevant parallel electric fields receive important contributions not only from the nongyrotropic portion of the electron pressure tensor but from electron spatial and temporal inertial terms as well.

Parallel Electric Fields↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗
NASA NTRS2017

Results of Large-Scale Spacecraft Flammability Tests

For the first time, a large-scale fire was intentionally set inside a spacecraft while in orbit. Testing in low gravity aboard spacecraft had been limited to samples of modest size: for thin fuels the longest samples burned were around 15 cm in length and thick fuel samples have been even smaller. This is despite the fact that fire is a catastrophic hazard for spaceflight and the spread and growth of a fire, combined with its interactions with the vehicle cannot be expected to scale linearly. While every type of occupied structure on earth has been the subject of full scale fire testing, this had never been attempted in space owing to the complexity, cost, risk and absence of a safe location. Thus, there is a gap in knowledge of fire behavior in spacecraft. The recent utilization of large, unmanned, resupply craft has provided the needed capability: a habitable but unoccupied spacecraft in low earth orbit. One such vehicle was used to study the flame spread over a 94 x 40.6 cm thin charring solid (fiberglasscotton fabric). The sample was an order of magnitude larger than anything studied to date in microgravity and was of sufficient scale that it consumed 1.5 of the available oxygen. The experiment which is called Saffire consisted of two tests, forward or concurrent flame spread (with the direction of flow) and opposed flame spread (against the direction of flow). The average forced air speed was 20 cms. For the concurrent flame spread test, the flame size remained constrained after the ignition transient, which is not the case in 1-g. These results were qualitatively different from those on earth where an upward-spreading flame on a sample of this size accelerates and grows. In addition, a curious effect of the chamber size is noted. Compared to previous microgravity work in smaller tunnels, the flame in the larger tunnel spread more slowly, even for a wider sample. This is attributed to the effect of flow acceleration in the smaller tunnels as a result of hot gas expansion. These results clearly demonstrate the unique features of purely forced flow in microgravity on flame spread, the dependence of flame behavior on the scale of the experiment, and the importance of full-scale testing for spacecraft fire safety.

microgravity↗
NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Transport Responses to Tropospheric Circulation Changes Using GEOS-5

The mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Recent comparisons among chemistry climate models, however, reveal that there are large differences in the mean age among models and that these differences are most likely related to differences in tropical (parameterized) convection. Here we use aquaplanet simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) to explore the sensitivity of the mean age to changes in the tropical circulation. Tropical circulation changes are forced by prescribed localized off-equatorial warm sea surface temperature anomalies that (qualitatively) reproduce the convection and circulation differences among the comprehensive models. Idealized chemical species subject to prescribed OH loss are also integrated in parallel in order to illustrate the impact of tropical transport changes on interhemispheric constituent transport.

Orbe, Clara↗