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At least 505 records · Page 28

The Heating and Pulsations of V386 Serpentis after Its 2019 Dwarf Nova Outburst

Following the pulsation spectrum of a white dwarf through the heating and cooling involved in a dwarf nova outburst cycle provides a unique view of the changes to convective driving that take place on timescales of months versus millennia for nonaccreting white dwarfs. In 2019 January the dwarf nova V386 Ser (one of a small number containing an accreting, pulsating white dwarf) underwent a large-amplitude outburst. Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet spectra were obtained 7 and 13 months after outburst along with optical ground-based photometry during this interval and high-speed photometry at 5.5 and 17 months after outburst. The resulting spectral and pulsational analysis shows a cooling of the white dwarf from 21,020 to 18,750 K (with a gravity $\mathrm{log}(g)=8.1$) between the two UV observations, along with the presence of strong pulsations evident in both UV and optical at a much shorter period after outburst than at quiescence. The pulsation periods consistently lengthened during the year following outburst, in agreement with pulsation theory. However, it remains to be seen if the behavior at longer times past outburst will mimic the unusual nonmonotonic cooling and long periods evident in the similar system GW Lib.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mercury Methylation and Soil Organic Matter Degradation in Incubations with Added Acetate, Isotope-Labeled Mercury, and Selective Microbial Inhibitors, Teller and Council Sites, Seward Peninsula, 2018-2019

This dataset provides the results of laboratory soil microcosm incubation experiments conducted under anaerobic conditions with added acetate, isotope-labeled mercury, and selective microbial inhibitors (2-bromoethanesulfonate and sodium molybdate). The microcosms contained soil collected in August 2018 from the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) near Intensive Site 9 (TL_IS_9) and from the Council Road Site (CN_MM71). Incubations were conducted at 8°C for 180 days (Teller incubations) or 60 days (Council incubations). The microcosm headspace was sampled at designated intervals for greenhouse gas concentrations, then destructively harvested and extracted using ultrapure water and 0.1 M KCl for analysis of the porewater geochemistry. This dataset contains one pdf, two csv data files, and one zipped file with raw data.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study of rotor gust response by means of the local momentum theory

The vertical gust response of the helicopter rotor in cruising flight is studied analytically by means of the local momentum theory (LMT) and experimentally in a wind tunnel utilizing a gust generator. By introducing the unsteady aerodynamic effects into the LMT and by considering the elastic deformation of the rotor blade, the vibratory characteristics of flapping blades and of the rotor forces can be obtained. Since the LMT makes it possible to calculate the instantaneous load distribution along the rotor blade in desired azimuthal or timewise intervals, the effects of gradual penetration of the rotor into the gust can be studied and the Fourier analysis or power spectrum analysis of the rotor response applied to any kind of gust input. Some results obtained analytically are verified by the experimental tests performed in the wind tunnel which generates step, sinusoidal and random vertical gusts by the motion of a series of cascaded vanes upstream of the rotor.

Azuma, A.↗

Comment on "The Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred three-cycle Quasiperiodicity of the Planetary Index Ap"

Recently, Ahluwalia reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasiperiodicity in them." Furthermore, on the basis of this inferred quasiperiodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new three-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum", a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselin et al. and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be readdressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. First, Ahluwalia appears to have based his analysis on a data set of Ap index values that is erroneous. For example, he depicts for the interval of 1932-1997 the variation of the Ap index in terms of annual averages, contrasting them against annual averages of sunspot number (SSN), and he lists for cycles 17-23 the minimum and maximum value of each, as well as the years in which they occur and a quantity which he calls "Amplitude" (defined as the numeric difference between the maximum and minimum values). In particular, he identifies the minimum Ap index (i.e., the minimum value of the Ap index in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum, which usually occurs in the year following sunspot minimum and which will be called hereafter, simply, Ap min) and the year in which it occur for cycles 17 - 23 respectively.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Validating Coherence Measurements Using Aligned and Unaligned Coherence Functions

This paper describes a novel approach based on the use of coherence functions and statistical theory for sensor validation in a harsh environment. By the use of aligned and unaligned coherence functions and statistical theory one can test for sensor degradation, total sensor failure or changes in the signal. This advanced diagnostic approach and the novel data processing methodology discussed provides a single number that conveys this information. This number as calculated with standard statistical procedures for comparing the means of two distributions is compared with results obtained using Yuen's robust statistical method to create confidence intervals. Examination of experimental data from Kulite pressure transducers mounted in a Pratt & Whitney PW4098 combustor using spectrum analysis methods on aligned and unaligned time histories has verified the effectiveness of the proposed method. All the procedures produce good results which demonstrates how robust the technique is.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗

Experiment Description and Results for Arrival Operations Using Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR)

The predicted increase in the number of commercial aircraft operations creates a need for improved operational efficiency. Two areas believed to offer increases in aircraft efficiency are optimized profile descents and dependent parallel runway operations. Using Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) software and procedures during these operations, flight crews can achieve by the runway threshold an interval assigned by air traffic control (ATC) behind the preceding aircraft that maximizes runway throughput while minimizing additional fuel consumption and pilot workload. This document describes an experiment where 24 pilots flew arrivals into the Dallas Fort-Worth terminal environment using one of three simulators at NASA?s Langley Research Center. Results indicate that pilots delivered their aircraft to the runway threshold within +/- 3.5 seconds of their assigned time interval, and reported low workload levels. In general, pilots found the FIM concept, procedures, speeds, and interface acceptable. Analysis of the time error and FIM speed changes as a function of arrival stream position suggest the spacing algorithm generates stable behavior while in the presence of continuous (wind) or impulse (offset) error. Concerns reported included multiple speed changes within a short time period, and an airspeed increase followed shortly by an airspeed decrease.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ron↗

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗

Coronal Hard X-Ray Sources Revisited

This paper reports on the re-analysis of solar flares in which the hard X-rays (HXRs) come predominantly from the corona rather than from the more usual chromospheric footpoints. All of the 26 previously analyzed event time intervals, over 13 flares, are re-examined for consistency with a flare model in which electrons are accelerated near the top of a magnetic loop which has a sufficiently high density to stop most of the electrons by Coulomb collisions before they can reach the footpoints. Of particular importance in the previous analysis was the finding that the length of the coronal HXR source increased with energy in the 20–30 keV range. However, after allowing for the possibility that footpoint emission at the higher energies affects the inferred length of the coronal HXR source, and using analysis techniques that suppress the possible influence of such footpoint emission, we conclude that there is no longer evidence that the length of the HXR coronal sources increase with increasing energy. In fact, for the six flares and 12 time intervals that satisfied our selection criteria, the loop lengths decreased on average by 1.0 ± 0.2 arcsec between 20 and 30 keV, with a standard deviation of 3.5 arcsec. We find strong evidence that the peak of the coronal HXR source increases in altitude with increasing energy. For the thermal component of the emission, this is consistent with the standard CHSKP flare model in which magnetic reconnection in a coronal current sheet results in new hot loops being formed at progressively higher altitudes. The explanation for the nonthermal emission is not so clear.

Gamma rays↗

Systematic analysis of coding and noncoding DNA sequences using methods of statistical linguistics

We compare the statistical properties of coding and noncoding regions in eukaryotic and viral DNA sequences by adapting two tests developed for the analysis of natural languages and symbolic sequences. The data set comprises all 30 sequences of length above 50 000 base pairs in GenBank Release No. 81.0, as well as the recently published sequences of C. elegans chromosome III (2.2 Mbp) and yeast chromosome XI (661 Kbp). We find that for the three chromosomes we studied the statistical properties of noncoding regions appear to be closer to those observed in natural languages than those of coding regions. In particular, (i) a n-tuple Zipf analysis of noncoding regions reveals a regime close to power-law behavior while the coding regions show logarithmic behavior over a wide interval, while (ii) an n-gram entropy measurement shows that the noncoding regions have a lower n-gram entropy (and hence a larger "n-gram redundancy") than the coding regions. In contrast to the three chromosomes, we find that for vertebrates such as primates and rodents and for viral DNA, the difference between the statistical properties of coding and noncoding regions is not pronounced and therefore the results of the analyses of the investigated sequences are less conclusive. After noting the intrinsic limitations of the n-gram redundancy analysis, we also briefly discuss the failure of the zeroth- and first-order Markovian models or simple nucleotide repeats to account fully for these "linguistic" features of DNA. Finally, we emphasize that our results by no means prove the existence of a "language" in noncoding DNA.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10↗

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Utah FORGE: Well 16B(78)-32 Drill Core Fracture Analysis Images and Data

This dataset contains drilling core data from well 16B(78)-32, including PDF documents with flattened core images annotated by feature type and core interval, as well as spreadsheets detailing feature morphologies by depth, planar feature measurements, and planar feature orientations rotated to in situ conditions. Core was recovered from three intervals, one per stimulation stage, in the crystalline rocks affected by the stimulation of well 16A(78)-32. Seven core runs were conducted, yielding 135.8 feet of recovered core. Features in the core were categorized into planar fractures, semi-planar fractures, unbroken mineralized fractures, rough fractures, curviplanar fractures, concave-convex surfaces, and planar compositional features such as mylonite or dike-like structures. Planar features were measured while the core was positioned horizontally, with the core axis aligned to a downhole azimuth of 42 degrees. Planar core measurements from stimulations 2 and 3 that could be confidently correlated with FMI data were rotated to in situ orientations. This was done by rotating the planes along vertical and horizontal axes to match the azimuth and inclination data recorded in the directional survey of well 16B(78)-32, as well as applying an axial rotation to resemble the fracture orientations observed in the FMI log at corresponding depths. Coherent sets of planar fracture measurements were made by aligning the core within each 3-foot section of the dissected core barrel, and between adjacent 3-foot sections within a core run by matching rock fabrics, saw cuts and/or tool marks. Where coherent fracture measurements could not be made within a core run, data sets are denoted by a subscript (i.e. 2-Ta and 2-Tb both come from tangent core run number 2).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Concentration-Discharge Relationships in the Six Largest Arctic Rivers, 2003-2019

This dataset provides the results of the analysis of the relationship of dissolved analyte concentrations and river discharges in the six largest Arctic rivers across the global panarctic region (see Figure 1 in documentation file *.pdf). Long-term measurements of dissolved analyte concentrations and river discharge have been collected for each of the Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon rivers by the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (ArcticGRO) project from ~2003-present (Shiklomanov, 2021). The relationship of dissolved analyte concentrations and discharges in each river was characterized by statistical analysis of the slope of the log(concentration) vs log(discharge) (b), the coefficient of variation ratio (CVc/CVq), the 2.5% and 97.5% confidence intervals of b, and assigning a chemostatic, flushing, diluting, or non-systematic behavior category according to Koger (2018). The summary of these analyses for all six rivers is provided in one .csv file. The concentrations of 20 dissolved analytes and discharge measurement data for the individual Kolyma, Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon rivers are also provided with this dataset. There are seven *.csv files; one for each river plus the statistical summary. These public ArcticGRO data at "https://www.arcticgreatrivers.org" (Shiklomanov, 2021) were downloaded on Feb 13, 2020, but each river has different measurement dates over the sampling and analysis period. The ArcticGRO metadata document (*.pdf) downloaded on Feb 13, 2020 is also included in this dataset. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The abundances of major elements in Cas A and Tycho supernova remnants

The objective of this program was to map the abundances of major elements such as O, Si, S, and Fe in the supernova remnants, Tycho and Cas A. The approach was based upon using archival cosmic X-ray data from several space missions, notably, the Einstein Observatory, EXOSAT, ROSAT, BBSRT, and ASCA. Two of the missions, Einstein and ROSAT, had high resolution telescopes that provided excellent images, but no spectral information. Two missions with much poorer resolution telescopes, BBXRT and ASCA, gave good spectral information through pulse height of signals in their cooled solid state detector, but rather crude spatial information. Our goal was to extract spectral information from the combined analysis of the Einstein and ROSAT images of Cas A and Tycho and to verify or refine the spectral map by checking its agreement with the BBSRT or ASCA spectra results for larger regions. In particular, we note that the Einstein and ROSAT telescopes have different spectral responses. The Einstein bandwidth includes the 2-4 keV region which is absent from ROSAT. Hence, by forming linear combinations of the Einstein and ROSAT images, we are able to resolve the contributions of the 0.5-2 keV band from the 2-4 keV band. The former contains lines of O and Fe while the latter is dominated by Si and S. We correct for the expansion that has taken place in the remnants during the ten-year interval between the Einstein and ROSAT measurements, but we must assume that no significant spectral changes have occurred during that time. The analysis of the Tycho SNR was completed and the results have been published. A copy of the paper is included. The analysis of Cas A has proved to be more complicated. It is continuing with support from another program. Part of the problem may be due to difficulties in the aspect information which is needed to precisely register the ROSAT and Einstein images.

Gorenstein, P.↗

A geostatistical analysis of small-scale spatial variability in bacterial abundance and community structure in salt marsh creek bank sediments

Small-scale variations in bacterial abundance and community structure were examined in salt marsh sediments from Virginia's eastern shore. Samples were collected at 5 cm intervals (horizontally) along a 50 cm elevation gradient, over a 215 cm horizontal transect. For each sample, bacterial abundance was determined using acridine orange direct counts and community structure was analyzed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA fingerprinting of whole-community DNA extracts. A geostatistical analysis was used to determine the degree of spatial autocorrelation among the samples, for each variable and each direction (horizontal and vertical). The proportion of variance in bacterial abundance that could be accounted for by the spatial model was quite high (vertical: 60%, horizontal: 73%); significant autocorrelation was found among samples separated by 25 cm in the vertical direction and up to 115 cm horizontally. In contrast, most of the variability in community structure was not accounted for by simply considering the spatial separation of samples (vertical: 11%, horizontal: 22%), and must reflect variability from other parameters (e.g., variation at other spatial scales, experimental error, or environmental heterogeneity). Microbial community patch size based upon overall similarity in community structure varied between 17 cm (vertical) and 35 cm (horizontal). Overall, variability due to horizontal position (distance from the creek bank) was much smaller than that due to vertical position (elevation) for both community properties assayed. This suggests that processes more correlated with elevation (e.g., drainage and redox potential) vary at a smaller scale (therefore producing smaller patch sizes) than processes controlled by distance from the creek bank. c2002 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗

Robustness-Based Design Optimization Under Data Uncertainty

This paper proposes formulations and algorithms for design optimization under both aleatory (i.e., natural or physical variability) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., imprecise probabilistic information), from the perspective of system robustness. The proposed formulations deal with epistemic uncertainty arising from both sparse and interval data without any assumption about the probability distributions of the random variables. A decoupled approach is proposed in this paper to un-nest the robustness-based design from the analysis of non-design epistemic variables to achieve computational efficiency. The proposed methods are illustrated for the upper stage design problem of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle, where the information on the random design inputs are only available as sparse point and/or interval data. As collecting more data reduces uncertainty but increases cost, the effect of sample size on the optimality and robustness of the solution is also studied. A method is developed to determine the optimal sample size for sparse point data that leads to the solutions of the design problem that are least sensitive to variations in the input random variables.

Zaman, Kais↗

The isotopic composition of cosmic-ray helium from 123 to 279 MeV per nucleon - A new measurement and analysis

A description is given of an experiment which was designed to measure the spectra and composition of cosmic-ray hydrogen and helium isotopes in the interval 120-280 MeV per nucleon to compare with the recent values observed at low energies and also with the only earlier measurement in this high-energy regime. The results presented were obtained during a high-altitude balloon flight from Thompson, Manitoba, in 1973 August. This flight occurred during the period in which the presence of the anomalous component in the helium spectrum became apparent, and provides the opportunity of determining whether this component extends to higher energies than those studied by satellite experiments. The results place an upper limit on the flux of 'anomalous' He-4 (which appeared at low energy in 1972) of at most 15% in the energy range of this experiment, and combined with the low-energy observations of the Chicago group, show an energy dependence of the average ratio of the helium isotopes in the modulated cosmic rays which is difficult to reconcile with current modulation models.

Leech, H. W.↗

Validation of Stage N3 of the Eighth Edition AJCC Staging System for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Objectives To validate stage nodal (N)3 of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods This retrospective cohort study extracted NPC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2016. Pathologically confirmed patients with complete data of level IV, N3a, and N3b lymph node metastasis were investigated. The included patients were divided into level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Five‐year overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) were compared among the three groups. Results A total of 693 patients were included: 285 (41.13%) patients in the level IV group, 124 (17.89%) patients in the N3a group, and 284 (40.98%) patients in the N3b group. The 5‐year OS (57.1%, 55.0%, and 55.2%) and CSS (64.4%, 63.5%, and 64.4%) were not different among the level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that N stage was not an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91–1.17; P = .65) or CSS (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89–1.19; P = .70). Conclusion Stage N3 of the 8th edition AJCC staging system for NPC is reasonable. Level of Evidence III Laryngoscope , 131:535–540, 2021

Pan, Xin‐Bin↗