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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

WE-G-BRD-04: BEST IN PHYSICS (JOINT IMAGING-THERAPY): An Integrated Model-Based Intrafractional Organ Motion Tracking Approach with Dynamic MRI in Head and Neck Radiotherapy

Purpose: In-treatment dynamic cine images, provided by the first commercially available MRI-guided radiotherapy system, allow physicians to observe intrafractional motion of head and neck (H&N) internal structures. Nevertheless, high anatomical complexity and relatively poor cine image contrast/resolution have complicated automatic intrafractional motion evaluation. We proposed an integrated model-based approach to automatically delineate and analyze moving structures from on-board cine images. Methods: The H&N upper airway, a complex and highly deformable region wherein severe internal motion often occurs, was selected as the target-to-be-tracked. To reliably capture its motion, a hierarchical structure model containing three statistical shapes (face, face-jaw, and face-jaw-palate) was first built from a set of manually delineated shapes using principal component analysis. An integrated model-fitting algorithm was then employed to align the statistical shapes to the first to-be-detected cine frame, and multi-feature level-set contour propagation was performed to identify the airway shape change in the remaining frames. Ninety sagittal cine MR image sets, acquired from three H&N cancer patients, were utilized to demonstrate this approach. Results: The tracking accuracy was validated by comparing the results to the average of two manual delineations in 20 randomly selected images from each patient. The resulting dice similarity coefficient (93.28+/−1.46 %) and margin error (0.49+/−0.12 mm) showed good agreement with the manual results. Intrafractional displacements of anterior, posterior, inferior, and superior airway boundaries were observed, with values of 2.62+/−2.92, 1.78+/−1.43, 3.51+/−3.99, and 0.68+/−0.89 mm, respectively. The H&N airway motion was found to vary across directions, fractions, and patients, and highly correlated with patients’ respiratory frequency. Conclusion: We proposed the integrated computational approach, which for the first time allows to automatically identify the H&N upper airway and quantify in-treatment H&N internal motion in real-time. This approach can be applied to track other structures’ motion, and provide guidance on patient-specific prediction of intra-/inter-fractional structure displacements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s integrated assessment model for carbon storage: A tool to support decision making amidst uncertainty

The US DOE-funded National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed an integrated assessment model (NRAP-IAM-CS) that can be used to simulate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection, migration, and associated impacts at a geologic carbon storage site. The model, NRAP-IAM-CS, incorporates a system-modeling-based approach while taking into account the full subsurface system from the storage reservoir to groundwater aquifers and the atmosphere. The approach utilizes reduced order models (ROMs) that allow fast computations of entire system performance even for periods of hundreds to thousands of years. The ROMs are run in Monte Carlo mode allowing estimation of uncertainties of the entire system without requiring long computational times. The NRAP-IAM-CS incorporates ROMs that realistically represent several key processes and properties of storage reservoirs, wells, seals, and groundwater aquifers. Results from the NRAP-IAM-CS model are used to quantify risk profiles for selected parameter distributions of reservoir properties, seal properties, numbers of wells, well properties, thief zones, and groundwater aquifer properties. A series of examples is used to illustrate how the risk under different storage conditions evolves over time, both during injection, in the near-term post injection period, and over the long term. Finally, it is also shown how results from NRAP-IAM-CS can be used to investigate the importance of different parameters on risk of leakage and risk of groundwater contamination under different storage conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models

Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals.

biodiversity models↗
DOE OSTI2017

Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transport sector. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in activity growth, modal structure, energy intensity and fuel mix to the projected passenger transport carbon emission pathways. The Laspeyres index decomposition method is used to compare results across models and scenarios, and against historical transport trends. Broadly-speaking the models show similar trends, projecting continuous transport activity growth, reduced energy intensity and in some cases modal shift to carbon-intensive modes - similar to those observed historically in a business-as-usual scenario. In policy-induced mitigation scenarios further enhancements of energy efficiency and fuel switching is seen, showing a clear break with historical trends. Reduced activity growth and modal shift (towards less carbon-intensive modes) only have a limited contribution to emission reduction. Measures that could induce such changes could possibly complement the aggressive, technology switch required in the current scenarios to reach internationally agreed climate targets.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment↗
NASA NTRS2018

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

risk assessment↗
DOE OSTI2017

On the climate policy implications of substitutability and flexibility in the economy: An in-depth integrated assessment model diagnostic

This paper conducts an in-depth model diagnostic exercise for two parameters, 1) the elasticity of substitution between the capital/labour aggregate and the energy aggregate in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) MERGE's production function and 2) the rate at which new technologies can be deployed within the energy system. We show that in a more complementary world the model's ability to adjust the carbon intensity of its energy sector is more important whereas in a more substitutable world the ability to expand carbon free technologies is of lesser relative importance. The uncertainty in the literature surrounding the elasticity of substitution parameter, its interaction with the mechanisms of technical change, and the associated danger of grounding forward-looking analyses in historically based parameters lend support to the importance of such a diagnostic exercise. Building on work from model intercomparison studies, we investigate whether a given model's choice of strategy is primarily a function of the choice of its parameter values or its structure. As a result, a deeper understanding of what drives model behaviour is beneficial to both modellers and the policymakers who utilise their insights and output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance and transport in the ARC tokamak

The ARC TM tokamak, a high-field (𝐵 𝑇 = 11.4 T) fusion power plant, under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is studied using a suite of integrated modelling tools to predict its fusion power generation (𝑃𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠), transport and confinement properties. Analysis is based off an ARC operational point scoped first with zero-dimensional (0-D) plasma operational contour (POPCON) modelling to produce 1.13 GW of fusion power. A suite of integrated modelling tools (TRANSP, ASTRA and TORAX) were applied to predict the performance and kinetic profiles of the ARC design point, yielding a range of predicted performance spanning from ∼900 to 1300 MW in rough quantitative agreement with POPCON predictions. The sensitivity of these results to uncertain modelling inputs was probed using scans of pedestal boundary conditions around EPED-predicted values (total pressure and temperature ratios), tungsten concentration and seperatrix density around their nominal assumptions. Pedestal pressure and pedestal top (𝑇 𝑖 /𝑇 𝑒 ) play a large role in 1.5-dimensional performance predictions, able to modify the predicted 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 by a factor of 2 within reasonable assumptions. High-fidelity core nonlinear gyrokinetic profile predictions, performed using CGYRO (Candy et al. 2016 J. Comput. Phys., vol. 324, pp. 73–93) coupled with the PORTALS (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al. 2024 Nucl. Fusion, vol. 64, 076034; Phys. Plasmas, vol. 31, 2024, 062501) framework, yield substantially lower performance (𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 =677 MW) compared with 0-D and medium-fidelity modelling for nominal assumptions, showing that there is non-negligible uncertainty between models and that future work on SPARC may help resolve discrepancies. Lower overall performance results from significantly reduced volume-averaged densities and temperatures, along with reduced levels of density and temperature peaking. Turbulence and transport are largely dominated by ion temperature gradient across the profile, confirmed by both linear stability and the response of the nonlinear fluxes to changes in gradients, with some impact of kinetic ballooning modes in the deep core. This work represents one of the most complete scoping of potential fusion power plant conditions performed to date. The extensive integrated modelling provides confidence in ARC performance approaching 1 GW, while nonlinear gyrokinetic modelling results in open questions into the physics of density and temperature peaking in fusion-power-plant-relevant operational space. A discussion of results and the role that the SPARC tokamak (Creely et al. 2020 J. Plasma Phys., vol. 86, 865860502) will play in informing ARC design, performance and operation is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Regional Nature of Global Challenges. A Need and Strategy for Integrated Regional Modeling

In this paper, we explore the regional nature of global environmental challenges. We take a broad approach by examining the scientific foundation that is needed to support policy and decision making and identifying some of the most important barriers to progress that are truly scale-dependent. In so doing, we hope to show that understanding global environmental changes requires understanding a number of intrinsically regional phenomena, and that successful decision making likewise requires an integrated approach that accounts for a variety of regional Earth system processes—which we define to include both human activities and environmental systems that operate or interact primarily at sub-continental scales. Understanding regional processes and phenomena, including regional decision-making processes and information needs, should thus be an integral part of the global change research agenda. To address some of the key issues and challenges, we propose an integrated regional modeling approach that accounts for the dynamic interactions among physical, ecological, biogeochemical, and human processes and provides relevant information to regional decision makers and stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

A Multi-Factor Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Potential

Agricultural residues have significant potential as a near term source of cellulosic biomass for bioenergy production, but sustainable removal of agricultural residues requires consideration of the critical roles that residues play in the agronomic system. Previous work has developed an integrated model to evaluate sustainable agricultural residue removal potential considering soil erosion, soil organic carbon, greenhouse gas emission, and long-term yield impacts of residue removal practices. The integrated model couples the environmental process models WEPS, RUSLE2, SCI, and DAYCENT. This study uses the integrated model to investigate the impact of interval removal practices in Boone County, Iowa, US. Residue removal of 4.5 Mg/ha was performed annually, bi-annually, and tri-annually and were compared to no residue removal. The study is performed at the soil type scale using a national soil survey database assuming a continuous corn rotation with reduced tillage. Results are aggregated across soil types to provide county level estimates of soil organic carbon changes and individual soil type soil organic matter content if interval residue removal were implemented. Results show interval residue removal is possible while improving soil organic matter. Implementation of interval removal practices provide greater increases in soil organic matter while still providing substantial residue for bioenergy production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Integrable string models of WZNW model type with constant SU(2), SO(3), SP(2) and SU(3) torsion and hydrodynamic chains

The integrability of string model of WZNW model type with constant SU (2), SO (3), SP (2) torsion is investigated. The closed boson string model in the background gravity and antisymmetric B-field is considered as integrable system in terms of initial chiral currents. The model is considered under assumption that internal torsion related with metric of Riemann-Cartan space and external torsion related with antisymmetric B-field are (anti)coincide. New equation of motion and exact solution this equation was obtained for string model with constant SU (2), SO (3), SP (2) torsion. New equations of motion and new Poisson brackets (PB) for infinite dimensional hydrodynamic chains was obtained for string model with constant SU (n ), SO (n ), SP (n ) torsion for n → ∞.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Wind tunnel tests of the 0.010-scale space shuttle integrated vehicle (model 52-QT) in the NASA/Ames 3.5-foot hypersonic wind tunnel (IA18)

Experimental aerodynamic investigations were conducted in the NASA/Ames Research Center 3.5-foot hypersonic wind tunnel on an 0.010-scale model of the space shuttle integrated vehicle consisting of an orbiter and external tank. The basic hypersonic stability characteristics of the orbiter attached rigidly to the external tank and the basic hypersonic stability characteristics of external tank alone simulating RTLS abort conditions were evaluated. The integrated vehicle was tested at angles of attack from- 8 deg through +30 deg and angles of sideslip of- 8 deg through +8 deg at fixed angles of attack of -4 deg, 0 deg, and +4 deg. A maximum angle of attack range of +15 deg through +40 deg was obtained for this configuration, at Mach number 7.3, for one run only. External tank alone testing was conducted at angles of attack from +8 deg through -30 deg and angles of sideslip of -8 deg at fixed angles of attack of -4 deg, 0 deg and +4 deg. Six-component force data and static base pressures were recorded during the test.

Esparza, V.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Recent Updates to the Arnold Mirror Modeler and Integration into the Evolving NASA Overall Design System for Large Space Based Optical Systems

Since last year, a number of expanded capabilities have been added to the modeler. The support the integration with thermal modeling, the program can now produce simplified thermal models with the same geometric parameters as the more detailed dynamic and even more refined stress models. The local mesh refinement and mesh improvement tools have been expanded and more user friendly. The goal is to provide a means of evaluating both monolithic and segmented mirrors to the same level of fidelity and loading conditions at reasonable man-power efforts. The paper will demonstrate most of these new capabilities.

Arnold, William R., Sr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stakeholder-driven carbon neutral pathways for Thailand and Bangkok: integrated assessment modeling to inform multilevel climate governance

Thailand has established a target of carbon neutrality by 2050. Reaching this goal will require coordination and collaboration between stakeholders spanning sectors and scales, including energy system decision makers, land managers, and city planners. Robust decarbonization scenarios incorporating current plans and targets, additional measures needed, and trade-offs between strategies can help stakeholders make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through iterative engagement with decision makers at the city and national levels, we develop and analyze carbon neutral scenarios for Thailand that incorporate Bangkok’s role using a global integrated assessment model. We find that Thailand can reach carbon neutrality through power sector decarbonization, energy efficiency improvements, widespread electrification, and advanced technologies including carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. Negative emissions technologies will also be needed to offset Thailand and Bangkok’s hardest-to-abate CO 2 emissions. Bangkok, as a major population and economic center, contributes significantly to Thailand’s energy demand and emissions and can therefore play an important role in climate change mitigation. Accordingly, our results underscore the importance of subnational climate action in meeting Thailand’s carbon neutral goal. Our analysis also indicates that without sustained land-based carbon sequestration, much more mitigation effort will be needed in Thailand’s energy sector, including at the subnational scale, to reach carbon neutrality. These insights can help stakeholders identify priorities, consider tradeoffs, and make decisions that will impact Bangkok and Thailand’s long-term climate change mitigation potential. This analysis demonstrates how stakeholder engagement in integrated assessment modeling can facilitate and inform multilevel climate governance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2015

Recent Updates to the Arnold Mirror Modeler and Integration into the Evolving NASA Overall Design System for Large Space-Based Optical Systems

Since last year, a number of expanded capabilities have been added to the modeler. The support the integration with thermal modeling, the program can now produce simplified thermal models with the same geometric parameters as the more detailed dynamic and even more refined stress models. The local mesh refinement and mesh improvement tools have been expanded and more user friendly. The goal is to provide a means of evaluating both monolithic and segmented mirrors to the same level of fidelity and loading conditions at reasonable man-power efforts. The paper will demonstrate most of these new capabilities.

Large Space-based↗