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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Business Intelligence Modeling in Launch Operations
This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.
Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of the AFIP-7 Irradiation Test in the Advanced Test Reactor - Oxide Growth Prediction and Correlation
Knowing the thickness of the oxide layer on the surface of aluminum fuel cladding is vitally important for predicting fuel temperature due to the low thermal conductivity of the oxide layer. Several correlation models for predicting oxide growth can be found in the literature. In previous research, the correlations were combined with heat transfer simulations in Abaqus, a finite element analysis code, to forecast the oxide growth. However, this approach requires heat transfer coefficients for modeling heat exchanges with the external flow field, and such coefficients were obtained through empirical equations. Since different empirical equations yield varying heat transfer coefficients, the cladding temperature and predicted oxide thickness both carry a high degree of uncertainty. Here, this research develops a new approach that integrates the fluid flow, fluid and solid heat transfer, and oxide growth correlation(s) into a single computational fluid dynamics model. We demonstrate this approach’s ability to predict oxide development on the AFIP-7 plates during two Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) irradiation cycles. The projected oxide thickness falls within the experimental measurements taken during post irradiation examination.
Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using a Regression Forest Model
Atmospheric chemistry is central to many environmental issues such as air pollution, climate change, and stratospheric ozone loss. Chemistry Transport Models (CTM) are a central tool for understanding these issues, whether for research or for forecasting. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a CTM. We have investigated a machine learning approach to solving the differential equations instead of solving them numerically. From an annual simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, centennial scale climate simulations etc. We discuss our approches' speed and accuracy, and highlight some potential future directions for improving this approach.
SERVIR-Africa: Developing an Integrated Platform for Floods Disaster Management in Africa
SERVIR-Africa is an ambitious regional visualization and monitoring system that integrates remotely sensed data with predictive models and field-based data to monitor ecological processes and respond to natural disasters. It aims addressing societal benefits including floods and turning data into actionable information for decision-makers. Floods are exogenous disasters that affect many parts of Africa, probably second only to drought in terms of social-economic losses. This paper looks at SERVIR-Africa's approach to floods disaster management through establishment of an integrated platform, floods prediction models, post-event flood mapping and monitoring as well as flood maps dissemination in support of flood disaster management.
On the equivalence of nonequilibrium and equilibrium measurements of slip in molecular dynamics simulations
Here, we show that nonequilibrium and equilibrium measurements of slip are consistent, provided the hydrodynamic wall location associated with the equilibrium measurement is properly taken into account. The latter is a strong function of the fluid state and wall-fluid interaction and cannot be neglected as it typically has been. Our results are based on an alternative approach for calculating the hydrodynamic wall location which alleviates most of the difficulties associated with its calculation via a Green-Kubo integral that appear to have contributed to its neglect. Extensive molecular dynamics simulations are used to validate our approach including a model for calculating the slip length that does not involve a Green-Kubo integral.
Integrated Transmission-and-Distribution System Modeling of Power Systems: State-of-the-Art and Future Research Directions
Integrated transmission-and-distribution (T&D) modeling is a new and developing method for simulating power systems. Interest in integrated T&D modeling is driven by the changes taking place in power systems worldwide that are resulting in more decentralized power systems with increasingly high levels of distributed energy resources. Additionally, the increasing role of the hitherto passive energy consumer in the management and operation of power systems requires more capable and detailed integrated T&D modeling to understand the interactions between T&D systems. Although integrated T&D modeling has not yet found widespread commercial application, its potential for changing the decades-old power system modeling approaches has led to several research efforts in the last few years that tried to (i) develop algorithms and software for steady-state and dynamic modeling of power systems and (ii) demonstrate the advantages of this modeling approach compared with traditional, separated T&D system modeling. In this paper, we provide a review of integrated T&D modeling research efforts and the methods employed for steady-state and dynamic modeling of power systems. We also discuss our current research in integrated T&D modeling and the potential directions for future research. This paper should be useful for power systems researchers and industry members because it will provide them with a critical summary of current research efforts and the potential topics where research efforts are needed to further advance and demonstrate the utility of integrated T&D modeling.
Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using Machine Learning
Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.
Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling
Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O (sup 1) D (Deuterium) to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.
Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling
Atmospheric chemistry is a high-dimensionality, large-data problem and thus may be suited to machine-learning algorithms. We show here the potential of a random forest regression algorithm to replace the gas-phase chemistry solver in the GEOS-Chem chemistry model. In this proof-of-concept study, we used one month of model output to train random forest regression models to predict the concentrations of each long-lived chemical species after integration based upon the physical and chemical conditions before the chemical integration. The choice of prediction type has a strong impact on the skill of the regression model. We find best results from predicting the change in concentration for very long-lived species and the absolute concentration for shorter lived species. The skill of the machine learning algorithm is further improved by using a family approach for NO and NO2 rather than treating them independently.By replacing the numerical integrator with the random forest algorithm and running this model for one month, we find that the model is able to reproduce many of the features of the reference chemistry simulation. Replacing the integration methodology with a machine learning algorithm has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of applications for such an approach, e.g. to generate boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts or chemical data assimilation systems, etc.
A Bayesian inferencing framework for ultrasound wave speed measurements in metal additive manufacturing
Process-related changes during metal additive manufacturing introduce microstructural variability in the material properties of printed parts, directly affecting component reliability. Accurate estimation of these property variations with part performance are essential for quality assurance. Ultrasound testing offers a non-destructive means to estimate mechanical properties and detect defects; however, conventional analysis methods often neglect the influence of microstructural variability, limiting their effectiveness. Here, this research presents a Bayesian inference technique for quantifying wave speed uncertainty from ultrasound measurements of metal additive manufactured parts. By integrating prior ultrasound data with a Bayesian model, the proposed approach generates posterior density estimates of wave speed that systematically account for manufacturing-induced variability and uncertainty. The novelty of this research lies in applying a Bayesian framework to analyze experimental ultrasound measurements within the context of metal additive manufacturing variability. The method enhances the accuracy of wave speed estimation by 64%, defect position by 50% and increases confidence associated with wave speed variance by 30% across different porosity levels, thereby providing a robust foundation for improved decision-making and increased reliability in additively manufactured components.
The advanced tokamak path to a compact net electric fusion pilot plant
Abstract Physics-based simulations project a compact net electric fusion pilot plant with a nuclear testing mission is possible at modest scale based on the advanced tokamak concept, and identify key parameters for its optimization. These utilize a new integrated 1.5D core-edge approach for whole device modeling to predict performance by self-consistently applying transport, pedestal and current drive models to converge fully non-inductive stationary solutions, predicting profiles and energy confinement for a given density. This physics-based approach leads to new insights and understanding of reactor optimization. In particular, the levering role of high plasma density is identified, which raises fusion performance and self-driven ‘bootstrap currents’, to reduce current drive demands and enable high pressure with net electricity at a compact scale. Solutions at 6–7 T, ∼4 m radius and 200 MW net electricity are identified with margins and trade-offs possible between parameters. Current drive comes from neutral beam and ultra-high harmonic (helicon) fast wave, though other advanced approaches are not ruled out. The resulting low recirculating power in a double null configuration leads to a divertor heat flux challenge that is comparable to ITER, though reactor solutions may require more dissipation. Strong H-mode access (x2 margin over L–H transition scalings) and ITER-like heat fluxes are maintained with ∼20%–60% core radiation, though effects on confinement need further analysis. Neutron wall loadings appear tolerable. The approach would benefit from high temperature superconductors, as higher fields would increase performance margins while potential for demountability may facilitate nuclear testing. However, solutions are possible with conventional superconductors. An advanced load sharing and reactive bucking approach in the device centerpost region provides improved mechanical stress handling. The prospect of an affordable test device which could close the loop on net-electric production and conduct essential nuclear materials and breeding research is compelling, motivating research to validate the techniques and models employed here.
High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates
Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.
Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum
Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.
Mono-Ether and Alcohol Bioblendstocks to Reduce the Fuel Penalty of Mixing Controlled Compression Ignition (MCCI) Engine Aftertreatment
An integrated approach utilizing catalysis experiments, process systems engineering, fuel property modeling, and engine testing was utilized in this project to optimize the production process and composition of a #2 diesel bioblendstock produced from ethanol consisting primarily of long-chain mono-ethers. The primary objective of the project was to determine the composition and to design the production process for a bioblendstock for #2 diesel fuel with > 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to conventional diesel fuel. The desired bioblendstock needed to be blendable with #2 diesel fuel at > 5 vol. % while still meeting ASTM D975 diesel fuel specification properties and achieving improvements in fuel properties: increased cetane number, decreased sooting, and reduced pour point and cloud point temperatures. At the same time, it needed to reduce the fuel energy penalty associated with MCCI engine aftertreatment resulting in improved system efficiency. The findings of the current project demonstrate that primary objective of the work has been met, i.e., to determine the composition and to design the production process for a bioblendstock for #2 diesel fuel with > 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to conventional diesel fuel. Additionally, the results indicate that the property objectives (increased cetane number, reduced pour and cloud points, and reduced sooting propensity) for the designed bioblendstock composition have also been met. Engine testing performed has also confirmed that the increased reactivity of the bioblendstock can be used to improve catalyst heating operation and to reduce the fuel penalty associated with this operation mode. The fuel property results demonstrate that >5 vol.% blending is easily achieved while meeting the ASTM D975 #2 diesel fuel property specifications tested in this work, as this was achieved for a blend with 43 vol. % of the bioblendstock. The results provide a foundation for future work to scaleup the catalytic production process designed in this work, with many of the challenges and areas for improvement being identified in this work to enable economic production with low GHG lifecycle emissions.
Optimal Co-Design of Integrated Thermal-Electrical Networks and Control Systems for Grid-interactive Efficient District (GED) Energy Systems
This project advances a unified, open-source framework for the optimal co-design of thermal, electrical, and control systems in grid-interactive efficient districts (GEDs). As communities integrate growing levels of distributed energy resources, traditional approaches that model thermal and electrical networks independently lead to reduced efficiency, limited flexibility, and missed opportunities for coordinated operation. To address these challenges, the research team developed a comprehensive suite of physics-based models, control algorithms, and software tools that enable holistic simulation, optimization, and demonstration of district-scale energy systems.
TGCM: (T)rait, (G)ene, and (C)rop Growth (M)odel Directed Targeted Gene Characterization in Sorghum (Final Technical Report)
Understanding which genes control important crop traits could help scientists develop better bioenergy and food crops more efficiently. However, plant genomes contain tens of thousands of genes, and testing each one individually is expensive and time-consuming. This project developed computational tools to predict which genes are most likely to matter, allowing researchers to focus their efforts where they will have the greatest impact. This project developed and validated integrated approaches combining machine learning, quantitative genetics, and crop growth modeling to improve the efficiency of functional gene characterization in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a critical bioenergy and food security crop. The research addressed a fundamental challenge in plant biology: the majority of genes in plant genomes lack experimentally validated functions, making it difficult to prioritize which genes to study using resource-intensive reverse genetics approaches.
Real-time operational planning for the U.S. air traffic system
This paper describes an integrated planning model for the U.S. air traffic system. The approach incorporates the dual objectives of monitoring collision risk while minimizing transportation costs. Specialized solution algorithms exploit the underlying structure of the model - especially for large-scale examples. The proposed formulation is tested with real-world data for the Indianapolis control sector. Additional experiments with a CRAY X-MP/24 supercomputer show that a full-scale model can be solved under real time conditions. Despite these advances, additional work is required in developing a practical system. Suggestions are made for combining advances in computer graphics and mathematical modeling.