Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “human systems performance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Automatic log analysis with NLP for the CMS workflow handling

The central Monte-Carlo production of the CMS experiment utilizes the WLCG infrastructure and manages daily thousands of tasks, each up to thousands of jobs. The distributed computing system is bound to sustain a certain rate of failures of various types, which are currently handled by computing operators a posteriori. Within the context of computing operations, and operation intelligence, we propose a Machine Learning technique to learn from the operators with a view to reduce the operational workload and delays. This work is in continuation of CMS work on operation intelligence to try and reach accurate predictions with Machine Learning. We present an approach to consider the log files of the workflows as regular text to leverage modern techniques from Natural Language Processing (NLP). In general, log files contain a substantial amount of text that is not human language. Therefore, different log parsing approaches are studied in order to map the log files’ words to high dimensional vectors. These vectors are then exploited as feature space to train a model that predicts the action that the operator has to take. This approach has the advantage that the information of the log files is extracted automatically and the format of the logs can be arbitrary. In this work the performance of the log file analysis with NLP is presented and compared to previous approaches.

Layer, Lukas↗

Exabiome: Advancing Microbial Science through Exascale Computing

The Exabiome project seeks to improve the understanding of microbiomes through the development of methods for accelerating metagenomic science using exascale computing. This article gives an overview of scientific impact of the three components of the project: metagenome assembly, protein family detection, and comparative analysis of metagenomes. Exabiome developed MetaHipMer, the only metagenome assembler capable of scaling to full exascale systems. MetaHipMer has enabled ground-breaking assemblies on the Frontier supercomputer, with many scientific benefits, such as the discovery of rare species and viral genomes. To investigate protein families, Exabiome developed two exascale tools, PASTIS and HipMCL. Together, these can utilize exascale resources to understand the functional diversity of billions of dark matter proteins and novel protein families. For comparative analysis, Exabiome developed kmerprof, a tool that can be used to compare huge metagenomes for many different scientific purposes, for example, grouping human microbiomes according to body location.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Screening green solvents for multilayer plastic film recycling processes

Multilayer (ML) plastic films are essential packaging materials that help protect products from diverse external factors; however, only 5% of all ML films are recycled in the United States. Solvent-based technologies are a promising alternative for recycling ML films because they enable recovery of constituent polymer resins. For example, the Solvent Targeted Recovery and Precipitation (STRAPTM) process sequentially dissolves and separates polymer components using a series of targeted solvent washes. A crucial design aspect of this process is the impact of selected solvents on human health and on the environment. Here, this work introduces a computational framework that integrates molecular modeling, process modeling, techno-economic analysis (TEA), and life-cycle analysis (LCA) to quickly screen green solvents for solvent-based ML recycling processes. Initial screening for solvents based on selectivity is performed by estimating temperature-dependent solubilities using molecular-scale models. Subsequent screening uses basic estimates of energy use and octanol-water partition coefficients (logP) as key measures of health, safety, and environmental hazards. Detailed process modeling, TEA, and LCA are used on a reduced set of promising solvents identified in early screening steps to more accurately determine how solvent selection and associated operating conditions impact overall economics and environmental impacts. The framework is used for the identification of green solvents (from a database of 1,000 solvents) that separate an industrial ML film composed of polyethylene (PE), ethylene vinyl alcohol (EVOH), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Our analysis shows the effectiveness of the framework and reveals fundamental trade-offs between solvent greenness, solubility, and economics. Our work emphasizes the importance of taking a holistic systems view during solvent design and aims to inform the development of new processes for ML film recycling and the identification of new ML films that are easier to recycle.

economics↗

Partially reduced Ru/RuO 2 composites as efficient and pH-universal electrocatalysts for hydrogen evolution

Efficient and long-term stable electrocatalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) via water splitting are urgently desired to ease the energy crisis and develop the sustainability of human society. However, the HER performance of state-of-the-art Pt in non-acidic solutions is unsatisfactory due to the severely sluggish kinetics. In this work, DFT theoretical calculations reveal that the Ru/RuO 2 composites enable high HER activity to be pursued under non-acidic conditions because of the distinctive Ru and RuO 2 interface, which possess not only a strong capability to adsorb and dissociate water but also appropriate binding energies of H and OH. Therefore, we employ a simple strategy, including heating under an oxygen-poor environment and/or in situ electrochemical reduction, to partially reduce RuO 2 . The formed Ru/RuO 2 interfaces demonstrate superior HER activities (e.g. η 10 = 17 mV, 35 mV dec –1 in 1 M KOH) than Pt/C (e.g. η 10 = 27 mV, 58 mV dec –1 in 1 M KOH) at both small (10–100 mA cm –2 ) and large (1 A cm –2 ) current densities in alkaline solution and even real seawater. Comprehensive experiments were conducted to investigate the structure-HER performance relationships. Moreover, benefiting from the bifunctional character of RuO2, a two-electrode system based on Ru/RuO 2 composites and RuO 2 exhibits the lowest cell voltage for water splitting in both 1 M KOH and 0.5 M H 2 SO 4 , respectively. A 300 h-stability test at 10 mA cm –2 without an obvious decay demonstrates the industrial prospects of the Ru/RuO 2 composites to generate green energy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗

BioTransformer 3.0 – A Web Server for Accurately Predicting Metabolic Transformation Products

BioTransformer 3.0 is a freely available web server that supports accurate, rapid and comprehensive in silico metabolism prediction. It combines machine learning approaches with a rule-based system to predict small-molecule metabolism in human tissues, the human gut as well as the external environment (soil and water microbiota). Simply stated, BioTransformer takes a molecular structure as input (SMILES or SDF) and outputs an interactively viewable/sortable table of the predicted metabolites or transformation products (SMILES, PNG images) along with the enzymes that are predicted to be responsible for those reactions and richly annotated downloadable files (CSV and JSON). The entire process typically takes a few seconds. Previous versions of BioTransformer focused exclusively on predicting the metabolism of xenobiotics (such as plant natural products, drugs, cosmetics and other synthetic compounds) using a limited number of pre-defined steps and somewhat limited rule-based methods. BioTransformer 3.0, uses much more sophisticated methods and incorporates new databases, new constraints and new prediction modules to not only more accurately predict the metabolic transformation products of exogenous xenobiotics but also the transformation products of endogenous metabolites, such as amino acids, peptides, carbohydrates, organic acids, and lipids. BioTransformer 3.0 can also support customized sequential combinations of these transformations along with multiple iterations to simulate multi-step human and/or environmental biotransformation events. Performance tests indicate that BioTransformer 3.0 is 40-50% more accurate, much less prone to combinatorial “explosions” and far more comprehensive in terms of metabolite coverage/capabilities than previous versions of BioTransformer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging Environmental Monitoring Results from Department of Energy Sites for Research on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

The Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) from a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Site summarizes environmental data; environmental management performance; compliance with applicable DOE, federal, state, and local regulations; and restoration and surveillance monitoring programs. The Savannah River Site (SRS) produces ASERs that include results of monitoring mercury levels in fish samples obtained in the vicinity of SRS. Mercury is a toxic trace metal and the methylated organic form is a neurotoxin that bioaccumulates in the food web, endangering humans and other organisms. In United States, power plants are the largest source of mercury emissions. Research Objective: To determine the patterns of mercury levels in fish samples reported in the SRS environmental monitoring reports. We developed box plot visualizations to make sense of the data as well as identify fish species, dates and location with outlier mercury content. The integration and visual representation of multi-year datasets can support decision making processes on environmental compliance and environmental sustainability conducted at U.S. DOE Sites. We are constructing datasets from textual, image and multivariable data sources in the multi-year ASERs of the U.S. DOE Savannah River Site (SRS https://www.srs.gov/general/pubs/ERsum/index.html). The Fish Surveillance for mercury presents a case study for the intersection of food, energy and water systems. The dataset of 864 records (2008 and 2009) of mercury levels includes water location of fish, fish species, collection date and mercury content of fish sample. The patterns of mercury levels in the fish species as well as locations provide knowledge for further investigations. A research area for future studies is the composition of microbial communities in fish guts of varying levels of mercury.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on Aims III Scenarios

Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the largest environmental risk factor for death and disease worldwide, associated with millions of cases of excess deaths (mortality) each year. Although there are many pollutants in the air that affect our health, the most important class of pollutants is fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 , which are airborne particles of diameter ≤2.5 micrometers (µm). These particles are small enough to deposit deep in the respiratory system where they can then enter the bloodstream, traveling and causing damage to other bodily systems. Exposure to outdoor (ambient) PM 2.5 has been found to be the most important environmental risk factor for mortality in Southeast Asia, associated with 130,000 - 320,000 excess deaths in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries in 2019. Southeast Asia, especially its mega-cities, but also other areas, has some of the worst air quality in the world. Almost all human activity emits air pollutants. Fine particulate matter is both directly emitted and formed in the atmosphere through chemical reactions, the latter of which requires modeling to predict. Power generation is one of the major sources of air pollutants that lead to elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter, including in Southeast Asia. Fossil fuel combustion for power generation, especially coal but also diesel, is the main source of air pollutant emissions from power generation. While natural gas burns cleaner than coal or diesel, in the quantities combusted for power generation in Southeast Asia, it is also a significant emitter. This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what's known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. We then use for the first time a new global, reduced-complexity air quality model to transform the changes in emissions to changes in air pollutant concentration of the deadliest air pollutant for human health, fine particulate matter (or PM 2.5 ). The air quality model, Global InMAP, then utilizes the location of human population in ASEAN countries to calculate exposure to PM 2.5 concentration changes and translates that to estimates of excess mortality attributable to the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Technical Program Plan for FY2023

This report presents the Technical Program Plan for Fiscal Years 2023-2027 (FY2023 to FY2027) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program—Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Research Pathway. The objective of this pathway is to carry out the research needed to help nuclear power plants diversify revenue generation for the life of these plants. The purpose of these research and development activities is two fold: (1) to reduce the technical and economic risks of implementing FPOG applications and (2) to provide guidance on relevant safety and environmental operating license reviews, amendments, and renewals. This pathway provides a clear understanding of the benefits of nuclear energy beyond electricity markets. A detailed description of the research and development activities that have been completed and that are planned for FY2023—FY2027 are presented in this report. These activities include completing the development of analysis tools to perform technical and economic assessments of realistic market opportunities for producing secondary energy products near nuclear power plants. They also include developing and demonstrating engineering systems and control concepts to dispatch thermal and electrical power to an industrial user. Additionally, this plan includes developing guidance for addressing potential regulatory and licensing requirements. In addition, the formation, purpose, and activities of a group referred to as the Hydrogen Regulatory Research and Review Group is discussed. An overview is also provided on the potential benefits of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) Bill that will support the commencement of Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that provides compelling production tax credits for nuclear electricity and clean hydrogen using nuclear energy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Exploratory Investigation of Disengagements and Crashes in Autonomous Vehicles Under Mixed Traffic: An Endogenous Switching Regime Framework

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have a large potential to improve traffic safety but also pose some critical challenges. While AVs may help reduce crashes caused by human error, they still may experience failures of technologies and sensing, as well as decision-making errors in a mixed traffic environment. A disengagement refers to an AV transitioning control from autonomous systems to the trained test driver. The safety critical nature of disengagements makes it imperative to analyze disengagements and crashes together. In this study, we analyze both crashes and disengagements from real-world AV driving in California to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between disengagements and crashes in a mixed traffic environment. A nested logit model was calibrated using three different outcomes: (1) disengagement with a crash, (2) disengagement with no crash, and (3) no disengagement with a crash. Furthermore, endogenous switching regime models were also calibrated to draw distinctions between the relation of disengagements and crashes while accounting for endogeneity effects. The results show that factors related to AV systems (such as software failures) and other roadway participants increase the propensity of a disengagement without a crash. Furthermore, AVs were observed to disengage less often as the technology matured over time. Marginal effects revealed an 8% decrease. The results thus suggest that disengagements are a part of AVs' safe performance and disengagement alerts may need to be triggered in order to avoid certain failures with current technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗

Large-Scale Interlaboratory DI-FT-ICR MS Comparability Study Employing Various Systems

We report ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry (UHR-MS) coupled with direct infusion (DI) electrospray ionization offers a fast solution for accurate untargeted profiling. Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance (FT-ICR) mass spectrometers have been shown to produce a wealth of insights into complex chemical systems because they enable unambiguous molecular formula assignment even if the vast majority of signals is of unknown identity. Inter-laboratory comparisons are required to apply this type of instrumentation in quality control (for food industry or pharmaceutics), large-scale environmental studies or clinical diagnostics. Extended comparisons employing different FT-ICR MS instruments with qualitative direct infusion analysis are scarce since the majority of detected compounds cannot be quantified. The extent to which observations can be reproduced by different laboratories remains unknown. We set up a preliminary study which encompassed a set of seventeen laboratories around the globe, diverse in instrumental characteristics and applications, to analyze the same sets of extracts from commercially available standard human blood plasma and Standard Reference Material (SRM) for blood plasma (SRM1950), which were delivered at different dilutions or spiked with different concentrations of pesticides. The aim of this study was to assess the extent to which the outputs of differently tuned FTICR mass spectrometers, with different technical specifications, are comparable for setting the frames of a future DI-FT-ICR MS ring trial. We concluded that a cluster of five laboratories, with diverse instrumental characteristics showed comparable and representative performance across all experiments, setting a reference to be used in a future ring trial on blood plasma.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Prussian blue as a co-catalyst for enhanced Cr (VI) photocatalytic reduction promoted by titania-based nanoparticles and aerogels

Hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) is an noxious and highly toxic heavy metal that presents a serious threat to human health if present even in low concentrations in drinking water. Photocatalytic reduction of Cr(VI) to its less toxic Cr(III) state is a potential strategy to combat Cr(VI) pollution, but the efficiency of the process is low, especially in the absence of hole scavenger organic reagents. To address this issue and prepare efficient photocatalysts for Cr(VI) removal from water, in this study, we explored Prussian blue (PB) as a co-catalyst for improving the photoreduction performance of different high surface area TiO 2 -based materials (titania or silica–titania nanoparticles and aerogels). Here, the photocatalyst nanomaterials were surface-modified with nanocrystalline PB using the photodeposition route. The PB layer acts as an effective electron acceptor/mediator between the semiconductor photocatalyst and Cr(VI) species. All the PB-modified photocatalysts exhibit higher photocatalytic activity (up to 9 times faster) as compared to the unmodified photocatalysts towards reduction of Cr(VI). Importantly, the PB-modified photocatalysts exhibited high photocatalytic performance (98–99% reduction in 40 min for pH = 5.6 and in 10 min for pH = 3) without addition of organic reagents. The simple approach reported herein can be followed to prepare new PB-photocatalyst systems with improved photocatalytic performance towards Cr(VI) reduction and other target applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Flue-Gas Desulfurization Effluent Management using an Innovative Low-Energy Biosorpotion Treatment System to Remove Key Contaminants

Among the most critical water contaminants of concern affecting wide geographical regions and a number of industries and natural systems is selenium. Selenium found in surface, ground and wastewater in originates from natural sources, as well as industrial sources such as petroleum refineries, electronics manufacturing, pesticides, and coal power plants and mining also contribute to selenium contamination in water in the US. At high concentrations, selenium is toxic to human and wildlife. There are a number of technologies that have been used to treat selenium and other similar contaminants in water. Biological treatment of selenium has been used in the past to reduce soluble SeVI and/or SeIV to insoluble Se0, which is then filtered in the same vessel. The insoluble selenium (Se0) is then backwashed from the system and solids are separated for subsequent disposal, if they meet the leaching and water content criteria. In order to promote biological reduction to insoluble Se0, heating of bioreactor is needed in some applications, and excess food source (electron donor) is added so that all selenium can be filtered. An additional disadvantage of these systems is the significant amount of water lost due to extensive and frequent backwash and rinse cycles. When comparing the advantages and energy requirements of the various treatment technologies, RO membrane filtration immediately stands out due to the excessive energy expenditure needed to pump water across the membrane although RO is an effective way to remove selenium. In addition, RO requires extensive pretreatment, such as MF membrane, and frequent maintenance, rendering it an expensive option that may be out of reach for certain applications. In fact, although the performance was good during the pilot testing by the NSMP Working Group for treatment naturally occurring selenium in the surface water, the high electricity requirements and significant reject water stream made it an infeasible alternative. While conventional ion exchange maybe an effective treatment option, it requires frequent regeneration of the resin when applied to highly contaminated water, which leads to several tons of contaminant-laden, high-salinity brine that needs to be disposed off-site each day. One of the water systems in the west coast currently uses ion exchange for selenium treatment and has been trucking selenium laden hazardous brine waste weekly in the last several years. Pneumatic pumping and rinse water pumping required for ion exchange also increase the energy usage. In comparison, adsorption process is a passive treatment system where contaminated water comes in contact with an adsorption media in a vessel. Typically, there is no mixing, backwash, or recycle pumping required, thus significantly reducing the energy usage. A passive single-use adsorption system does not require backwash, thereby generating small amount of process waste, and producing the highest water yield among the alternatives. The energy and water efficiencies, and applicability for SeVI and SeIV are summarized in Table 1. Despite these benefits though, adsorption typically does not work for the most oxidized form of selenium (SeVI). The innovative biosorption process integrates both process to increase the treatment efficiency while minimizing energy, chemical, and time required to treat both SeVI and SeIV. Additional advantages include simple partial biological reduction with reduced on-site waste generation, which lead to water and electricity savings, and less operational need compared to biological treatment alone. This makes biosorption especially suitable for remote areas, where liquid backwash and brine disposal may be cost prohibitive or infeasible.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗