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DOE OSTI2024

The water–climate nexus: Intersections across sectors

Water security and climate change are important priorities for communities and regions worldwide. The intersections between water and climate change extend across many environmental and human activities. This Primer is intended as an introduction, grounded in examples, for students and others considering the interactions between climate, water, and society. In this Primer, we summarize key intersections between water and climate across four sectors: environment; drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene; food and agriculture; and energy. We begin with an overview of the fundamental water dynamics within each of these four sectors, and then discuss how climate change is impacting water and society within and across these sectors. Emphasizing the relationships and interconnectedness between water and climate change can encourage systems thinking, which can show how activities in one sector may influence activities or outcomes in other sectors. We argue that to achieve a resilient and sustainable water future under climate change, proposed solutions must consider the water–climate nexus to ensure the interconnected roles of water across sectors are not overlooked. Toward that end, we offer an initial set of guiding questions that can be used to inform the development of more holistic climate solutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2021

Street context of various demographic groups in their daily mobility

Abstract We present an urban science framework to characterize phone users’ exposure to different street context types based on network science, geographical information systems (GIS), daily individual trajectories, and street imagery. We consider street context as the inferred usage of the street, based on its buildings and construction, categorized in nine possible labels. The labels define whether the street is residential, commercial or downtown, throughway or not, and other special categories. We apply the analysis to the City of Boston, considering daily trajectories synthetically generated with a model based on call detail records (CDR) and images from Google Street View. Images are categorized both manually and using artificial intelligence (AI). We focus on the city’s four main racial/ethnic demographic groups (White, Black, Hispanic and Asian), aiming to characterize the differences in what these groups of people see during their daily activities. Based on daily trajectories, we reconstruct most common paths over the street network. We use street demand (number of times a street is included in a trajectory) to detect each group’s most relevant streets and regions. Based on their street demand, we measure the street context distribution for each group. The inclusion of images allows us to quantitatively measure the prevalence of each context and points to qualitative differences on where that context takes place. Other AI methodologies can further exploit these differences. This approach presents the building blocks to further studies that relate mobile devices’ dynamic records with the differences in urban exposure by demographic groups. The addition of AI-based image analysis to street demand can power up the capabilities of urban planning methodologies, compare multiple cities under a unified framework, and reduce the crudeness of GIS-only mobility analysis. Shortening the gap between big data-driven analysis and traditional human classification analysis can help build smarter and more equal cities while reducing the efforts necessary to study a city’s characteristics.

Salgado, Ariel (ORCID:0000000177015372)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A foundation model for atomistic materials chemistry

Atomistic simulations of matter, especially those that leverage first-principles (ab initio) electronic structure theory, provide a microscopic view of the world, underpinning much of our understanding of chemistry and materials science. Over the last decade or so, machine-learned force fields have transformed atomistic modeling by enabling simulations of ab initio quality over unprecedented time and length scales. However, early machine-learning (ML) force fields have largely been limited by (i) the substantial computational and human effort required to develop and validate potentials for each particular system of interest and (ii) a general lack of transferability from one chemical system to the next. Here, we show that it is possible to create a general-purpose atomistic ML model, trained on a public dataset of moderate size, that is capable of running stable molecular dynamics for a wide range of molecules and materials. We demonstrate the power of the MACE-MP-0 model-and its qualitative and at times quantitative accuracy-on a diverse set of problems in the physical sciences, including properties of solids, liquids, gases, chemical reactions, interfaces, and even the dynamics of a small protein. The model can be applied out of the box as a starting or "foundation" model for any atomistic system of interest and, when desired, can be fine-tuned on just a handful of application-specific data points to reach ab initio accuracy. Establishing that a stable force-field model can cover almost all materials changes atomistic modeling in a fundamental way: experienced users obtain reliable results much faster, and beginners face a lower barrier to entry. Foundation models thus represent a step toward democratizing the revolution in atomic-scale modeling that has been brought about by ML force fields.

Batatia, Ilyes↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Imaging shapes of atomic nuclei in high-energy nuclear collisions

Atomic nuclei are self-organized, many-body quantum systems bound by strong nuclear forces within femtometre-scale space. These complex systems manifest a variety of shapes, traditionally explored using non-invasive spectroscopic techniques at low energies. However, at these energies, their instantaneous shapes are obscured by long-timescale quantum fluctuations, making direct observation challenging. Here we introduce the collective-flow-assisted nuclear shape-imaging method, which images the nuclear global shape by colliding them at ultrarelativistic speeds and analysing the collective response of outgoing debris. This technique captures a collision-specific snapshot of the spatial matter distribution within the nuclei, which, through the hydrodynamic expansion, imprints patterns on the particle momentum distribution observed in detectors. We benchmark this method in collisions of ground-state uranium-238 nuclei, known for their elongated, axial-symmetric shape. Our findings show a large deformation with a slight deviation from axial symmetry in the nuclear ground state, aligning broadly with previous low-energy experiments. This approach offers a new method for imaging nuclear shapes, enhances our understanding of the initial conditions in high-energy collisions and addresses the important issue of nuclear structure evolution across energy scales.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developmental Ethanol Exposure Impacts Purkinje Cells but Not Microglia in the Young Adult Cerebellum

Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) caused by developmental ethanol exposure lead to cerebellar impairments, including motor problems, decreased cerebellar weight, and cell death. Alterations in the sole output of the cerebellar cortex, Purkinje cells, and central nervous system immune cells, microglia, have been reported in animal models of FASD. To determine how developmental ethanol exposure affects adult cerebellar microglia and Purkinje cells, we used a human third-trimester binge exposure model in which mice received ethanol or saline from postnatal (P) days 4–9. In adolescence, cerebellar cranial windows were implanted and mice were aged to young adulthood for examination of microglia and Purkinje cells in vivo with two-photon imaging or in fixed tissue. Ethanol had no effect on microglia density, morphology, dynamics, or injury response. However, Purkinje cell linear frequency was reduced by ethanol. Microglia–Purkinje cell interactions in the Purkinje Cell Layer were altered in females compared to males. Overall, developmental ethanol exposure had few effects on cerebellar microglia in young adulthood and Purkinje cells appeared to be more susceptible to its effects.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The aging proteostasis decline: From nematode to human

The aging proteostasis decline manifests in a failure of aging cells and organisms to properly respond to proteotoxic challenges. This proteostasis collapse has long been considered a hallmark of aging in nematodes, and has recently been shown to occur also in human cells upon entry to senescence, opening the way to exploring the phenomenon in the broader context of human aging. Cellular senescence is part of the normal human physiology of aging, with senescent cell accumulation as a prominent feature of aged tissues. Being highly resistant to cell death, senescent cells, as they accumulate, become pro-inflammatory and promote disease. Here we discuss the causes of human senescence proteostasis decline, in view of the current literature on nematodes, on the one hand, and senescence, on the other hand. We review two major aspects of the phenomenon: (1) the decline in transcriptional activation of stress-response pathways, and (2) impairments in proteasome function. We further outline potential underlying mechanisms of transcriptional proteostasis decline, focusing on reduced chromatin dynamics and compromised nuclear integrity. Finally, we discuss potential strategies for reinforcing proteostasis as a means to improve organismal health and address the relationship to senolytics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feature selection and causal analysis for microbiome studies in the presence of confounding using standardization

Abstract Background Microbiome studies have uncovered associations between microbes and human, animal, and plant health outcomes. This has led to an interest in developing microbial interventions for treatment of disease and optimization of crop yields which requires identification of microbiome features that impact the outcome in the population of interest. That task is challenging because of the high dimensionality of microbiome data and the confounding that results from the complex and dynamic interactions among host, environment, and microbiome. In the presence of such confounding, variable selection and estimation procedures may have unsatisfactory performance in identifying microbial features with an effect on the outcome. Results In this manuscript, we aim to estimate population-level effects of individual microbiome features while controlling for confounding by a categorical variable. Due to the high dimensionality and confounding-induced correlation between features, we propose feature screening, selection, and estimation conditional on each stratum of the confounder followed by a standardization approach to estimation of population-level effects of individual features. Comprehensive simulation studies demonstrate the advantages of our approach in recovering relevant features. Utilizing a potential-outcomes framework, we outline assumptions required to ascribe causal, rather than associational, interpretations to the identified microbiome effects. We conducted an agricultural study of the rhizosphere microbiome of sorghum in which nitrogen fertilizer application is a confounding variable. In this study, the proposed approach identified microbial taxa that are consistent with biological understanding of potential plant-microbe interactions. Conclusions Standardization enables more accurate identification of individual microbiome features with an effect on the outcome of interest compared to other variable selection and estimation procedures when there is confounding by a categorical variable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding soil organic carbon dynamics at larger scales

This chapter focuses on the effects of biotic and abiotic factors controlling soil organic carbon dynamics at continental to global scales. On the side of natural effects, it highlights processes that can control carbon inputs, turnover and stabilization in soils. On the side of anthropogenic effects, the chapter focuses on the role of climate change as well as historic and modern land conversion. The chapter also divides anthropogenic effects into direct and indirect disturbances done by humans. Both overarching sections close with a short synthesis.

Doetterl, Sebastian↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Residential HVAC Control with Consideration of Human Occupancy

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) development described herein uses model-free Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to minimize energy cost during residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operation. Building cooling loads and HVAC operation are difficult to accurately model due to complexity, lack of measurements and data, and model specific performance, so online machine learning is used to allow for real-time readjustment in performance. Energy costs for the multi-zone cooling unit shown in this work are minimized by scheduling on/off commands around dynamic prices. By taking advantage of precooling events that take place when the price is low, the agent is able to reduce operational cost without violating user comfort. The DRL controller was tested in simulation where the learner achieved a 43.89% cost reduction when compared to traditional, fixed-setpoint operation. The system is now ready for the next phase of testing in a live, real-time home environment.

Mckee, Evan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pseudospectral convex optimization for on-ramp merging control of connected vehicles

It can be a daunting task for human drivers to merge into highways because of the intricate vehicle negotiations and potential risk within limited time and space. Connected vehicle (CV) technologies could be a solution to this problem and offer many benefits to the road safety, traffic mobility, and energy efficiency. However, real-time optimal control of CVs is still an open challenge, due to the nonlinear vehicle dynamics, non-convex fuel consumption model, and highly dynamic uncertain inter-vehicle interactions. To tackle these issues, a novel real-time optimal control approach that balances the computational efficiency and solution optimality is proposed for the purpose of onboard application. To this end, the pseudospectral collocation method is integrated with a sequential convex programming approach to develop two new optimization algorithms, which are implemented within a model predictive control (MPC) framework to allow for real-time generation of optimal merging speed profiles. One algorithm leverages the line search technique to improve convergence, and the other benefits from the trust region method for better computational efficiency. The optimality and convergence process of both proposed algorithms are investigated by comparing their solutions with a popular non-linear solver. Furthermore, simulation results show that the proposed methods outperform the benchmark in terms of computational cost, fuel consumption, and traffic efficiency. In particular, the proposed fuel-economy merging rule can save 57.1% fuel consumption on average on four different traffic volumes. Meanwhile, the proposed optimal control algorithms can reduce 2.2% travel time on average comparing to the “first-in-first-out” merging rule.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrative analysis of the 3D genome and epigenome in mouse embryonic tissues

While a rich set of putative cis-regulatory sequences involved in mouse fetal development have been annotated recently on the basis of chromatin accessibility and histone modification patterns, delineating their role in developmentally regulated gene expression continues to be challenging. To fill this gap, here we mapped chromatin contacts between gene promoters and distal sequences across the genome in seven mouse fetal tissues and across six developmental stages of the forebrain. We identified 248,620 long-range chromatin interactions centered at 14,138 protein-coding genes and characterized their tissue-to-tissue variations and developmental dynamics. Integrative analysis of the interactome with previous epigenome and transcriptome datasets from the same tissues revealed a strong correlation between the chromatin contacts and chromatin state at distal enhancers, as well as gene expression patterns at predicted target genes. We predicted target genes of 15,098 candidate enhancers and used them to annotate target genes of homologous candidate enhancers in the human genome that harbor risk variants of human diseases. We present evidence that schizophrenia and other adult disease risk variants are frequently found in fetal enhancers, providing support for the hypothesis of fetal origins of adult diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonclassical autophagy activation pathways are essential for production of infectious Influenza A virus in vitro

Autophagy is a critical mechanism deployed by eukaryotic cells in response to stress, including viral infection, to boost the innate antimicrobial responses. However, an increasing number of pathogens hijack the autophagic machinery to facilitate their own replication. Influenza A virus (IAV), responsible for several global pandemics, has an intricate dependence on autophagy for successful replication in mammalian cells. To elucidate key chokepoints in the host stress responses facilitating IAV replication, we constructed a meta-transcriptome of IAV and host gene expression dynamics during early (1–3 hpi), mid (4–6 hpi), and late (8–12 hpi) stages of the viral replication cycle at two multiplicities of infection (MOI): 1 and 5. We supplemented the global transcriptome study with phosphoproteomic analysis of stress-activated protein kinase (SAPK/JNK) signaling in lung carcinoma (predominantly used as an in vitro model of IAV replication) and normal human bronchial epithelial cells. We report significant differences in the activation profiles of autophagy regulating genes upon IAV infection at the two MOI as well as divergent dependence on ULK1 signaling within the normal and cancer cells. Regardless of the cell model, JNK-Thr187 signaling was crucial for the production of infectious viral particles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arabidopsis thaliana EARLY RESPONSIVE TO DEHYDRATION 7 Localizes to Lipid Droplets via Its Senescence Domain

Lipid droplets (LDs) are neutral-lipid-containing organelles found in all kingdoms of life and are coated with proteins that carry out a vast array of functions. Compared to mammals and yeast, relatively few LD proteins have been identified in plants, particularly those associated with LDs in vegetative (non-seed) cell types. Thus, to better understand the cellular roles of LDs in plants, a more comprehensive inventory and characterization of LD proteins is required. Here, we performed a proteomics analysis of LDs isolated from drought-stressed Arabidopsis leaves and identified EARLY RESPONSIVE TO DEHYDRATION 7 (ERD7) as a putative LD protein. mCherry-tagged ERD7 localized to both LDs and the cytosol when ectopically expressed in plant cells, and the protein’s C-terminal senescence domain (SD) was both necessary and sufficient for LD targeting. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that ERD7 belongs to a six-member family in Arabidopsis that, along with homologs in other plant species, is separated into two distinct subfamilies. Notably, the SDs of proteins from each subfamily conferred targeting to either LDs or mitochondria. Further, the SD from the ERD7 homolog in humans, spartin, localized to LDs in plant cells, similar to its localization in mammals; although, in mammalian cells, spartin also conditionally localizes to other subcellular compartments, including mitochondria. Disruption of ERD7 gene expression in Arabidopsis revealed no obvious changes in LD numbers or morphology under normal growth conditions, although this does not preclude a role for ERD7 in stress-induced LD dynamics. Consistent with this possibility, a yeast two-hybrid screen using ERD7 as bait identified numerous proteins involved in stress responses, including some that have been identified in other LD proteomes. Collectively, these observations provide new insight to ERD7 and the SD-containing family of proteins in plants and suggest that ERD7 may be involved in functional aspects of plant stress response that also include localization to the LD surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A curated benchmark for cofolding models on kinase conformational states

Abstract Protein kinases are critical drug targets, requiring therapeutics that can modulate their active and inactive conformational states. While cofolding models can generate global folds directly from kinase sequences and ligand SMILES strings, these models have not yet been tested on their ability to recover ligand-induced-fit conformational states of the kinase proteins. Here, we introduce KinConfBench, a curated benchmark of 2225 high-quality human kinase chains to evaluate the ability of four state-of-the-art cofolding models—Boltz-2, Chai-1, Protenix, and RoseTTAFold-All-Atom—to recover both canonical and rare conformational states. We show that geometric success metrics of a ligand pose in the active site do not correlate strongly with the correct kinase conformational state, motivating a new set of dynamical benchmarks for assessing cofolding models. While all four cofolding models achieve ~60–80% prediction accuracy for kinase conformational classification, they exhibit severe mode collapse when performing multiple inferences, show negligible structural diversity in sampling induced-fit motions, and display a prevalent “apo-drift” in which most cofolding models predominantly predict the kinase to be in its ligand-free state. Our results highlight that capturing ligand-induced protein conformational diversity, not just geometric fit, is critical for next-generation structure-based drug discovery.

Sun, Kunyang↗
DOE OSTI2026

LandCast Mosaic: Reconstructing Global Population Distributions, 1975-2025

LandCast Mosaic (LCM) provides a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset spanning 1975–2025, representing annual, scenario-consistent estimates of daytime, nighttime, and ambient population distributions. LCM builds on the 2025 LandScan Mosaic (LSM) population data by backcasting to earlier years using historical changes in built-surface area derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and authoritative population counts from international datasets. The workflow scales 2025 building-informed gridded population estimates according to observed changes in built surface, applies linear interpolation for intermediate years, and normalizes estimates to match administrative- and country-level totals. The resulting dataset offers consistent, globally gridded population estimates over fifty years, suitable for temporal analyses of population dynamics, disaster risk modeling, and urban planning applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Single cell heterogeneity in influenza A virus gene expression shapes the innate antiviral response to infection

Viral infection outcomes are governed by the complex and dynamic interplay between the infecting virus population and the host response. It is increasingly clear that both viral and host cell populations are highly heterogeneous, but little is known about how this heterogeneity influences infection dynamics or viral pathogenicity. To dissect the interactions between influenza A virus (IAV) and host cell heterogeneity, we examined the combined host and viral transcriptomes of thousands of individual cells, each infected with a single IAV virion. We observed complex patterns of viral gene expression and the existence of multiple distinct host transcriptional responses to infection at the single cell level. We show that human H1N1 and H3N2 strains differ significantly in patterns of both viral and host anti-viral gene transcriptional heterogeneity at the single cell level. Our analyses also reveal that semi-infectious particles that fail to express the viral NS can play a dominant role in triggering the innate anti-viral response to infection. Altogether, these data reveal how patterns of viral population heterogeneity can serve as a major determinant of antiviral gene activation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗