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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Model predictions of wind and turbulence profiles associated with an ensemble of aircraft accidents

The feasibility of predicting conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist is studied by examining a number of different accidents in detail. A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to reconstruct wind and turbulence profiles which may have existed at low altitudes at the time of the accidents. The predictions are consistent with available flight recorder data, but neither the input boundary conditions nor the flight recorder observations are sufficiently precise for these studies to be interpreted as verification tests of the model predictions.

Williamson, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

Reilinger, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

Video Meteor Fluxes

The flux of meteoroids, or number of meteoroids per unit area per unit time, is critical for calibrating models of meteoroid stream formation and for estimating the hazard to spacecraft from shower and sporadic meteors. Although observations of meteors in the millimetre to centimetre size range are common, flux measurements (particularly for sporadic meteors, which make up the majority of meteoroid flux) are less so. It is necessary to know the collecting area and collection time for a given set of observations, and to correct for observing biases and the sensitivity of the system. Previous measurements of sporadic fluxes are summarized in Figure 1; the values are given as a total number of meteoroids striking the earth in one year to a given limiting mass. The Gr n et al. (1985) flux model is included in the figure for reference. Fluxes for sporadic meteoroids impacting the Earth have been calculated for objects in the centimeter size range using Super-Schmidt observations (Hawkins & Upton, 1958); this study used about 300 meteors, and used only the physical area of overlap of the cameras at 90 km to calculate the flux, corrected for angular speed of meteors, since a large angular speed reduces the maximum brightness of the meteor on the film, and radiant elevation, which takes into account the geometric reduction in flux when the meteors are not perpendicular to the horizontal. They bring up corrections for both partial trails (which tends to increase the collecting area) and incomplete overlap at heights other than 90 km (which tends to decrease it) as effects that will affect the flux, but estimated that the two effects cancelled one another. Halliday et al. (1984) calculated the flux of meteorite-dropping fireballs with fragment masses greater than 50 g, over the physical area of sky accessible to the MORP fireball cameras, counting only observations in clear weather. In the micron size range, LDEF measurements of small craters on spacecraft have been used to estimate the flux (Love & Brownlee, 1993); here the physical area of the detector is well known, but the masses depend strongly on the unknown velocity distribution. In the same size range, Thomas & Netherway (1989) used the narrow-beam radar at Jindalee to calculate the flux of sporadics. In between these very large and very small sizes, a number of video and photographic observations were reduced by Ceplecha (2001). These fluxes were calculated (details are given in Ceplecha, 1988) taking the Halliday et al. (1984) MORP fireball fluxes, slightly corrected in mass, as a calibration, and adjusting the flux of small cameras to overlap with the number/mass relation from that work.

Campbell-Brown, M. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Shuttle optical environment; Proceedings of the Meeting, Washington, DC, April 23, 24, 1981

The numerical modeling, instrumentation, identification, and procedures to characterize and/or control contamination hazards to equipment used on the Shuttle are discussed. On-orbit pollutants include molecular offgassing and outgassing, particulate material, and substances from thrusters, vents, and leaks. Clean-rooms are being implemented in ground assembly and integration facilities. Attention is given to an upgraded SPACE program for numerically modeling contamination pathways and appropriate procedures to protect instrumentation from film and particulate deposition. Finally, attention is given to military cryogenic IR detectors being employed to quantify the Shuttle thermal and solid pollutant environment on-orbit as a prelude to future operational IR sensors.

Miller, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Evaluation of a technique to quantify microburst windshear hazard potential to aircraft

A wind shear hazard index, known as the F-factor, is investigated for application with look-ahead sensors. Based on data from microburst simulations with the NASA windshear model, the downdraft results in a significant contribution to the wind shear hazard, especially at altitudes above 150 meters. Since most look-ahead wind shear sensors can only detect horizontal shear and cannot measure vertical velocity, a relationship is developed for approximating the total F-factor using information based solely on the horizontal wind shear and altitude. This relationship is then tested using data from several microburst cases.

Byrd, G. P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulating Ordinary Chondrite (Tamdakht) Ablation at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) Facility.

NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) created the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) to inform decision-makers of risks associated with Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs), which may pose an existential threat to human civilization. ATAP assesses risk, in part, by developing analytical physics-based damage models which draw upon data collected during material property characterization efforts, entry simulations, hazard simulations, and ground-based arc-jet testing. Therefore, a pathfinder test campaign was con-ducted at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) at the NASA Langley Re-search Center to investigate the ablation mechanisms of an ordinary chondrite (Tamdakht H5) and a terrestrial analog (basalt). The HyMETS facility is a 400 kW constricted arc heater used to screen material performance under simulated aerothermal conditions of hypersonic flow.1 Facility conditions were chosen to simulate Earth entry conditions be-tween the upper-mesosphere and the lower thermo-sphere. The ablation mechanisms of Tamdakht and bas-alt are illustrated with still images collected from high-speed video cameras (fig. 1, Tamdakht). Tamdakht produces a relatively stable melt flow, as evidenced by the perpetual growth of a flange at the sidewall and the exiguous detachment of molten material into the flow. Furthermore, an inspection of high-speed video and chemical analysis of the post-test melt layer suggests that the dominant mode of mass loss for Tamdakht, at these test conditions, is expressed through the vaporization of volatiles (e.g., iron, potassium, sodium, phosphorus, and sulfur). The vaporization rates of Tamdakht are greater than basalt under the most extreme test conditions, which leads to an enhanced blowing layer, in-creased thermal shielding, and reduced recession. The ablation mechanisms of basalt are markedly different from Tamdakht and are attributed to the presence of hydrated minerals dispersed at irregular intervals throughout the silicate matrix. Rapid de-composition of secondary minerals and the subsequent formation of water lead to the ejection of the subsurface and overlying melt layer. Furthermore, the presence of water is suspected of lowering the viscosity of the melt layer resulting in increased mass loss near the edge of the test article where drag forces overcome rheological properties (fig. 1, bas-alt). Finally, the results will be discussed in the broader context of meteorite-based material response model development and the potential impact on the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP).

Brody K. Bessire↗
NASA NTRS2007

Testing for Software Safety

This research focuses on testing whether or not the hazardous conditions identified by design-level fault tree analysis will occur in the target implementation. Part 1: Integrate fault tree models into functional specifications so as to identify testable interactions between intended behaviors and hazardous conditions. Part 2: Develop a test generator that produces not only functional tests but also safety tests for a target implementation in a cost-effective way. Part 3: Develop a testing environment for executing generated functional and safety tests and evaluating test results against expected behaviors or hazardous conditions. It includes a test harness as well as an environment simulation of external events and conditions.

Chen, Ken↗
NASA NTRS2017

Asteroid Impact Risk: Ground Hazard versus Impactor Size

We utilized a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model to stochastically assess the impact risk due to an ensemble population of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). Concretely, we present the variation of risk with impactor size. Results suggest that large impactors dominate the average risk, even when only considering the subset of undiscovered NEOs.

Mathias, Donovan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Predicting Real-Time Safety of the National Airspace System

To gain the situational awareness necessary for informed decision making regarding avoidance of airspace hazards, each operator must consolidate operations-relevant information from disparate sources and apply extensive domain knowledge to correctly interpret not just the current state of the NAS but forecast its (combined) evolution over the duration of the operation. This time- and workload-intensive process is periodically repeated throughout the operation so that changes can be managed in a timely manner.The imprecision, inaccuracies, inconsistency, and incompleteness of the incoming data further challenges the process. To facilitate informed decision making, this paper presents a model-based framework for the textitautomated real-time monitoring and prediction of possible effects of airspace hazards on the safety of the National Airspace System (NAS). First, hazards to flight are identified and transformed into sms, that is, quantities of interest that could be evaluated based on available data and are predictive of an unsafe event. The sms and associated thresholds that specify when an event transitions from emphsafe to emphunsafe are combined with models of airspace operations and aircraft dynamics. The framework can include any hazard to flight that can be modeled quantitatively. Models can be detailed and complex, or they can be considerably simplifed, as appropriate to the application. Real-time NAS safety monitoring and prediction begins with an estimate of the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, we can then predict the evolution of the NAS - the future state - and the occurrence of hazards and unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace sms is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type andor parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach through a simulated scenario in which we predict the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress. Predictions accounting for common sources of uncertainty are included and it is shown how the predictions improve in time, become more confident, and change dynamically as new information is made available to the prediction algorithm.

safety↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing a Disaster-Ready Power Grid Agent Through Geophysically-Informed Fault Event Scenarios

Management of the nation’s power grid over the coming decades will need to factor multiple climate-driven threats to the power system that can be stressful or even detrimental to its operations. During disasters, grid operators suffer from cognitive overload where the electric grid is severely impacted by the weather, yet grid operators have limited awareness of these factors. Meanwhile, the electric grid is facing an explosion of data coming from a variety of sources which can enable the operator to evaluate the risks and develop mitigation strategies against hazardous events. In this work, we processed heterogeneous environmental and power grid data to learn and model grid behavior caused by extreme weather events. In this study, we focused on two weather-driven hazards, hurricanes and wildfires, which were analysed for the electric grid of Texas. We the used this data to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent by analysing and predicting future behaviour of the grid during those hazard events. All these parts are incorporated in one framework to have a geophysically informed power simulators that can be used to train RL agents.

electic grid, reinforcement learning, climate adap↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

Operational Hazards↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fallout Cloud Regimes

The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Energy (DOE), and other organizations maintain operational nuclear explosion and atmospheric dispersion models to provide critical guidance on the expected effects of an accidental or deliberate explosion of a nuclear weapon (in this paper simply referred to as “device”). To be effective, these models must represent, as accurately as possible, the complex interactions of the blast, fire, and residual radiological hazards with the environment and population. One hundred atmospheric nuclear tests that form the basis for many models were conducted at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) (now referred to as the Nevada Nuclear Security Site, NNSS) in a dry desert environment. Other environments should be studied, but have less data available and are beyond the scope of the work presented in this paper. The debris clouds produced by the NTS tests, frequently called “mushroom clouds,” are familiar, with common structural elements such as a buoyant cap connected to a skirt of raised dust at the desert surface by a thin, dirt-filled stem. The film scanning project at LLNL has investigated historical film records of nuclear weapons tests. Here, we summarize findings showing that the mushroom cloud behavior for historic U.S. tests conducted in Nevada, has similar characteristics based on the distance of the device from the ground surface or Height of Burst (HOB), scaled by the energy release, or yield, of the device. This scaled height is referred to as the scaled-height-of-burst (SHOB). The findings discussed below show that mushroom clouds look and behave similarly when detonated at the same SHOB. The amount of residual radiation that is produced by a nuclear detonation is proportional to the yield. But, the amount of that residual radiation that actually becomes local fallout is strongly dependent on the SHOB and the type of surface over which the detonation occurs. In order to develop a more comprehensive model that predicts the fraction of the residual radiation that becomes local fallout, it is convenient to define a series of regimes based on SHOB values in which all detonations that occur within a given regime can be modeled using the same algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for defining different regimes, and, in a qualitative way, a basic understanding of the fundamental characteristics of each of these regimes.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2011

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗
DOE OSTI2023

3-D Simulations of earthquakes rupture jumps: 1. Homogeneous pre-stress conditions

SUMMARY Observational and modelling studies indicate that earthquake ruptures can jump between fault sections as large as ∼3 and ∼5 km for compressional and extensional offsets, respectively. Here, we compare characteristics of the rupture jump process on parallel but offset fault sections from traditional 3-D dynamic rupture simulations governed by slip weakening friction using the finite element code, FaultMod, to those from quasi-dynamic simulations governed by rate- and state-dependent friction (rate-state friction) using the code RSQSim. These simulations use spatially uniform initial stresses. For a variety of measures the rupture renucleation position on the offset fault, the rate-state friction and slip weakening friction models produce very similar results. The principal difference is the additional occurrence of delayed rupture jumps that arise from the time- and stress-dependent nucleation that is characteristic of rate-state friction. For immediate rupture jumps, models with slip weakening friction span greater offsets than those with rate-state friction. However the jump distances are nearly identical when delayed rupture jumps are included in the comparisons. We propose that delayed rupture jumps are the likely mechanism for adjacent large-earthquake pairs and clusters. Based on the similarity of renucleation positions with both dynamic and quasi-dynamic models, we conclude that the renucleation positions for rupture initiation on the receiver fault (separated by less than ∼3 km from the source fault) are primarily controlled by static stress changes induced by slip on the initiating fault. However, in light of the slightly greater maximum jump distances (>3 km) seen with the dynamic slip weakening friction model, dynamic stress changes from seismic waves play an increasingly important role as offset distances increase.

, RSQSim↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗