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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Impact of environmental attributes on the uncertainty in MAIAC/MODIS AOD retrievals: A comparative analysis

This work examines the impact of different environmental attributes on the uncertainty in satellite-based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieval against the benchmark Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD measurements at 21 sites across North Africa, California and Germany, in the years 2007–2017. As a first step, we studied the effects of spatial averaging the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) AOD retrievals, and of temporal averaging the AERONET AOD around the satellite (Aqua) overpass, on the agreement between the two products. AERONET AOD averaging over a time-window of ±15 min around the satellite overpass and the 1 ×1 km2 spatial grid of MAIAC were found to provide the best AOD retrieval performance. Next, MAIAC AOD were stratified according to different co-measured environmental attributes (aerosol loading, dominant particle size, vegetation cover, and prevailing particle type) and analyzed against the AERONET AOD. The envelope of the expected retrieval error varied considerably among different environmental attributes categories, with more accurate AOD retrievals obtained over highly vegetated areas (i.e. less surface reflectance) than over arid areas. Moreover, the retrieval accuracy was found to be sensitive to the aerosol loading and particle size, with a large bias between the MAIAC and AERONET AOD during high aerosol loading of coarse particles. In addition, the retrieval accuracy of MAIAC AOD was found to depend on the aerosol type due to the aerosol model assumptions regarding their optical properties.

AOD RETRIEVAL↗
DOE OSTI2025

Small-Signal Stability of Grid-Forming Inverters Using Current-Limiting and Frequency Stabilization

This paper presents a small-signal stability analysis of grid-forming (GFM) inverters under current-limiting conditions. It examines how adjustments in virtual impedance angles, implemented through advanced current-limiting and frequency stabilization techniques, influence small-signal stability. This paper studies a GFM inverter control integrating a fictitious power technique stabilizing primary control by adding a virtual power term and a hybrid current limiter integrating virtual impedance in the anti-wind-up feedback with current reference saturation limiting. A small-signal model is developed to assess the impact of virtual impedance angles on GFM inverter dynamics during grid disturbances, such as voltage drops. The findings indicate that although increasing the virtual impedance angle (to make it more inductive) enhances large-signal stability and voltage support during faults, it can induce oscillations and lead to instability if the angle exceeds certain thresholds. Based on the small-signal models, this paper provides design considerations for the current-limiter impedances to ensure reliable GFM inverter behavior under grid disturbances while maintaining small-signal stability.

current limiting↗
DOE OSTI2025

LDES-Sizing-and-siting-model (Power grid test cases for long-duration energy storage (LDES) siting) [SWR-25-75]

This repository contains code and data for performing a siting analysis of long-duration energy storage (LDES) in the 5-bus and RTS systems using the Sienna suite developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for production cost modeling (PCM). This analysis involves moving the LDES component to different buses in the system, running a simulation, and considering the production cost of the simulation. Different system configurations are also analyzed with these scripts (such as moving load or renewable dispatch generators to different buses) to observe the impacts the system configuration has on optimal siting. This repository contains three sub directories discussed below. Both the 5-bus and RTS systems have two different initial configurations for the renewable energy components in them, one that is predominantly PV-driven and one that is predominantly wind-driven. Sienna suite can be found here: https://github.com/NREL-Sienna

Cole, David [University of Wisconsin]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Storage in Local Zoning Ordinances

Increasing policy support and declining prices for battery energy storage systems (BESS) are driving rapid growth in the installation of these systems in the United States and around the world. Because a BESS is modular in nature and has limited infrastructure requirements, it can be built in close proximity to existing uses, which creates the potential for conflict. As the use of BESS grows, local planning and zoning staff are increasingly being asked to determine where the systems can be built and how their impacts on surrounding uses can be mitigated. While a large-scale BESS offers significant electric grid and societal benefits, it can also pose safety, visual, auditory, and environmental impacts on the community in which it is located. While these are material impacts, current safety codes for energy storage systems and land use frameworks provide planners with the necessary tools and processes to mitigate those impacts and ensure that their communities safely receive the benefits of energy storage systems. This report provides an overview of BESS from a land use perspective and describes their implications for zoning and project permitting. It concludes with an analysis of current energy storage zoning standards adopted by local jurisdictions in the U.S. Its intent is to objectively inform land use decisions for energy storage projects by equipping planning officials with relevant information about these technologies and knowledge of what questions to ask during review processes, so that energy storage projects can move forward in ways that will benefit electric systems while not unduly affecting host communities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Control Parameter Sensitivity Study for Inverter-Based-Resource Dominated Grids: A Small Signal Stability Approach and Framework

The growing adoption of renewable energy is driving the prevalence of inverter-based resources (IBRs) within power grids. Future power grids will integrate both grid-following IBRs (GFM-IBRs) and grid-forming IBRs (GFL-IBRs) alongside synchronous generators. Therefore, it is crucial to perform stability studies that account for all components and especially control interactions related to IBRs. Extensive research has performed to study the IBR-related stability, however, the sensitivity study of IBRs' control parameters on system stability has not been adequately studied yet, especially from a systematic way. Therefore, this paper conducts a small signal stability analysis for a generic grid with multiple types of resources and develops an analytical framework for assessing the sensitivity of control parameters affecting stability margins. To achieve that, the non-autonomous reduced-order non-linear dynamic model is developed for a generic power system with multiple synchronous generator-based resources (SGBRs), GFM-IBRs, and GFL-IBRs. Based on the analytic model, a systematic framework for parametric sensitivity on systems' asymptotic stability is developed. A parameter sensitivity analysis based on eigenvalue methods is proposed. The impact of the droop controllers of GFM-IBRs, PQ-dispatch and the PLL controller of GFL-IBR on the system asymptotic stability is discussed. This sensitivity study is aiming to provide deep insights on control parameters' impact on system stability, and gives direction for parameter tuning in case of instability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systemwide Considerations for Electrification of Transportation in Islands and Remote Locations

Electric vehicles (EVs) represent an important socio-economic development opportunity for islands and remote locations because they can lead to reduced fuel imports, electricity storage, grid services, and environmental and health benefits. This paper presents an overview of opportunities, challenges, and examples of EVs in islands and remote power systems, and is meant to provide background to researchers, utilities, energy offices, and other stakeholders interested in the impacts of electrification of transportation. The impact of uncontrolled EV charging on the electric grid operation is discussed, as well as several mitigation strategies. Of particular importance in many islands and remote systems is taking advantage of local resources by combining renewable energy and EV charging. Policy and economic issues are presented, with emphasis on the need for an overarching energy policy to guide the strategies for EVs growth. The key conclusion of this paper is that an orderly transition to EVs, one that maximizes benefits while addressing the challenges, requires careful analysis and comprehensive planning.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Results, Status and Future

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is one of a number of long-term, satellite-based, global analyses routinely produced under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and its Global Energy and Watercycle EXperiment (GEWEX) program. The research quality analyses are produced a few months after real-time through the efforts of scientists at various national agencies and universities in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The primary product is a monthly analysis of surface precipitation that is globally complete and spans the period 1979-present. There are also pentad analyses for the same period and a daily analysis for the 1997-present period. Although generated with somewhat different data sets and analysis schemes, the pentad and daily data sets are forced to agree with the primary monthly analysis on a grid box by grid box basis. The primary input data sets are from low-orbit passive microwave observations, geostationary infrared observations and surface raingauge information. Examples of research with the data sets are discussed, focusing on tropical (25N-25s) rainfall variations and possible long-term changes in the 28-year (1979-2006) monthly dataset. Techniques are used to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes for rainfall over both land and ocean. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% maximum reduction in tropical rainfall during each event. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, a small upward linear change over tropical ocean (0.06 mm/day/l0yr) and a slight downward linear change over tropical land (-0.03 mm/day/l0yr) are examined to understand the impact of the inhomogeneity in the data record and the length of the data set. These positive changes correspond to about a 5% increase (ocean) and 3% increase (ocean plus land) during this time period. Relations between variations in surface temperature and precipitation are analyzed on seasonal to inter-decadal time scales. A new, version 3 of GPCP is being planned to incorporate new satellite information (e.g., TRMM) and provide higher spatial and temporal resolution for at least part of the data record. The goals and plans for that GPCP re-processing will be outlined.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Previously Unrecognized Large Lunar Impact Basins Revealed by Topographic Data

The discovery of a large population of apparently buried impact craters on Mars, revealed as Quasi- Circular Depressions (QCDs) in Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data [1,2,3] and as Circular Thin Areas (CTAs) [4] in crustal thickness model data [5] leads to the obvious question: are there unrecognized impact features on the Moon and other bodies in the solar system? Early analysis of Clementine topography revealed several large impact basins not previously known [6,7], so the answer certainly is "Yes." How large a population of previously undetected impact basins, their size frequency distribution, and how much these added craters and basins will change ideas about the early cratering history and Late Heavy Bombardment on the Moon remains to be determined. Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) data [8] will be able to address these issues. As a prelude, we searched the state-of-the-art global topographic grid for the Moon, the Unified Lunar Control Net (ULCN) [9] for evidence of large impact features not previously recognized by photogeologic mapping, as summarized by Wilhelms [lo].

Frey, Herbert V.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Impact of Flexible CHP on the Future Electric Grid In California

Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States. Typically fueled with natural gas, a CHP system combines a prime mover (such as a reciprocating engine) with a generator and heat recovery equipment, allowing operation at very high efficiencies (65–85%). Traditionally, CHP systems have been configured to serve local electrical and thermal loads at the sites where they are deployed. Units are sized to ensure a high capacity factor for the equipment, and the electricity generated tends to be used on site. CHP units in the United States already generate over 12% of the nation’s electricity. However, CHP’s potential benefits could be much greater if power generated could be used beyond the site, because the analysis was performed under the assumption that sites could use all the thermal output. Analysis of a few key sectors confirmed that this assumption is valid (for more information, see Appendix E). Those benefits could include improved grid reliability and resilience, as well as lower-cost options for providing energy and other grid services. The potential benefits also align well with grid modernization objectives, as shown in Combined heat and power (CHP) systems provide electricity and process heat at more than 4,400 industrial and commercial facilities across the United States., and greater electrification of loads, driven by carbon reduction priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling for Solar (MIDAS-Solar) (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power systems operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) - are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power system steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for power grid planning and operation. We have developed a temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation model, named Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS), that seamlessly simulates power system operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). For schedules with very high levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs), up to and including 100%, the stability of grid controls has been evaluated through electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations and power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulations of key transient events at key schedule points. Specifically, MIDAS provides: 1) a closed-loop simulation framework for simulating timescales from economic scheduling to dynamic stability analysis; 2) machine learning-based stability assessment; 3) EMT modeling and analysis for large-scale power systems; 4) MIDAS PHIL test bed. We worked with Hawaii Electric Companies to apply the MIDAS study framework to a Maui grid study. The entire island's transmission system was modeled in detail - from a yearly scheduling model, to a second-level frequency dynamic model, down to a sub-second-scale EMT model to address critical stability issues. The project demonstrated how MIDAS can help system planners and operators assess system reliability and stability while the power grid is marching toward a high-renewable, high-IBR future. In this Maui grid study, we found that 100% instantaneous IBR operation is achievable in EMT simulation and PHIL testing, and grid planners and operators might need new analysis/simulation tools to assess grid reliability and stability in the scheduling stage. MIDAS will bring Maui and other systems closer to 100% clean and stable energy futures. (In this study, we examined transient stability. Other topics necessary for 100% IBR operation, such as protection and resource adequacy, were not examined.)

100% Renewables↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Geothermal District Heating System on Flexibility of Microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma: Preprint

Flexibility is the capability of the power grid to maintain a balance between electricity generation and variable demand. This study presents preliminary results evaluating the impact of geothermal district heating systems on the flexibility of a conceptual microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating demand profiles were modeled using EnergyPlus for the district that includes two schools and 250 single-family houses. Then, geothermal energy production was modeled using GEOPHIRES to estimate how much heating demand in the district can be supplied by five different geothermal system scenarios. The results indicated that geothermal energy production varied depending on the resource temperature at different depths, system configurations, and flow rates. For the grid flexibility analysis, electricity consumptions in the five geothermal systems were estimated for pump operations to circulate water from the wells to radiators, while electricity consumption by air-source heat pump in the base case was estimated to supply the same heating load. Electricity consumption in the geothermal systems was significantly lower than those in base cases. The electricity saved by the geothermal system was then incorporated into the microgrid electrical load profiles where variable renewable electricity generation is significantly high. The results visually showed that geothermal district heating system can improve grid flexibility as a baseload during the winter season. The results also highlighted potential opportunities to save energy costs that will be further analyzed in future study.

Cambium↗
DOE OSTI2022

E-transit-bench: simulation platform for analyzing electric public transit bus fleet operations

When electrified transit systems make grid aware choices, improved social welfare is achieved by reducing grid stress, reducing system loss, and minimizing power quality issues. Electrifying transit fleet has numerous challenges like non availability of buses during charging, varying charging costs and so on, that are related the electric grid behavior. However, transit systems do not have access to the information about the co-evolution of the grid's power flow and therefore cannot account for the power grid's needs in its day-to-day operation. In this paper we propose a framework of transportation-grid co-simulation, analyzing the spatio-temporal interaction between the transit operations with electric buses and the power distribution grid. Real-world data for a day's traffic from Chattanooga city's transit system is simulated in SUMO and integrated with a realistic distribution grid simulation (using GridLAB-D) to understand the grid impact due to transit electrification. Charging information is obtained from the transportation simulation to feed into grid simulation to assess the impact of charging. We also discuss the impact to the grid with higher degree of transit electrification that further necessitates such an integrated transportation-grid co-simulation to operate the integrated system optimally. Our future work includes extending the platform for optimizing the charging and trip assignment operations.

Sen, Rishav↗
DOE OSTI2020

Harmonics and Stability Evaluation of Converter-Interfaced Combined Heat and Power Units

Grid integration of medium-sized combined heat and power (CHP) units is challenging due to strict grid codes and conventional generators lack of control flexibility to meet these grid codes. Adding a two-stage ac-dc-ac power electronics interface between the generator and the utility grid will accelerate the interconnection process of CHP units. For the dc-ac stage, a voltage source converter (VSC) has been widely used as a grid-tied inverter because of its fast control and low total harmonics distortion (THD). In this paper, several topologies of generator-side rectifiers for ac-dc power conversion are explored and analyzed. The harmonics impact of various rectifiers on the CHP generator are evaluated. The overall cost of the electrical system, when using various types of rectifiers, is assessed and the VSC back-to-back converter interface configuration is found to be optimal. The overall system stability is also examined using small-signal impedance analysis to assess potential instability issues at the system level.

CHP, Harmonics, Generator Rectifier Unit, DC Imped↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of 10‐m Wind Speed From ISD Meteorological Stations and the MERRA‐2 Reanalysis: Impacts on Dust Emission in the Arabian Peninsula

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols when studying the radiative balance and climate of the planet. There are different dust emission schemes utilized by the atmospheric modeling communities, many of which disagree on basic output quantities such as mass of dust emitted and distribution of mass among size bins. In this work, we examined mineral dust emission from a leading model scheme, the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), as utilized in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Reanalysis and compared it to dust emissions calculated using wind measurements from ground based weather stations located in the Arabian Peninsula that are included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) integrated surface database (ISD). An intercomparison of 10-m wind speed is shown for the Arabian Peninsula region, differences of the observed and modeled wind field are quantified, and impacts of differences on dust emissions are calculated. This analysis shows 10-m winds in the ISD were generally lower than MERRA-2 winds, which propagated to dust emissions errors. Our estimate of one of the most significant mass impacts in dust emission is 0.178 Tg/year/grid box with a percent change of over 200% to the recalculated dust emissions from MERRA-2. These differences in wind speed propagated to a difference in dust mass emitted by the use of a static source function which aids in scaling the mass emitted by the availability of dust in each grid. Additionally, the magnitude of these differences varies seasonally.

winds↗
DOE OSTI2023

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Intermediate Feasibility Study Results

NREL conducted a feasibility study for a clean hydrogen production facility that would be located in Questa, New Mexico. This slide deck presents the history of the coalition of stakeholders that received NREL technical assistance through the Department of Energy's Communities Leading Energy Action Program. It describes how hydrogen is generated and its end uses. It describes two conceptual applications explored in the feasibility analysis, a grid-tied power generation and long-term storage application and a heavy-duty vehicle fueling application. The presentation details the configuration of these to applications in the Questa pilot facility, including system components, required inputs (water, electricity, and land for pv generation), and outputs in kilograms of hydrogen, megawatt hours of power delivered, and hours of vehicle hours of operation. The presentation addresses key concerns raised by groups engaged through a public outreach process, including safety, health, and environmental issues; water use; visual impacts; and costs and alternatives.

heavy-duty vehicle fueling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observation and Simulation of Methane Plumes During the Morning Boundary Layer Transition

Abstract Methane (CH 4 ) contributes significantly to global warming. However, accurate identification of CH 4 sources for reducing CH 4 emissions is often hampered by inadequate accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage of CH 4 detection, and lack of accurate CH 4 forward modeling used in top‐down inversion systems. In this study, a field experiment was conducted in Pampa, Texas using two CH 4 sensors (LI‐COR and OGI camera) to detect CH 4 releases. We investigated whether high‐resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with greenhouse gases (WRF‐GHG) could accurately simulate the CH 4 plumes in the presence of evolving atmospheric boundary layer from sunrise to noon. CH 4 plumes showed substantial variation in time. At a release rate of ∼17.5 kg hr −1 , the maximum enhancement of CH 4 measured by LI‐COR was 2.6 ppm at sunrise (7:36 a.m.), 250 m from the release location. Within half an hour after sunrise, this enhancement decreased to 0.3–0.4 ppm. The enhancement was 0.2 ppm by 10:00 a.m. and further dropped to less than 0.1 ppm after 11:30 a.m. Due to the low temperature at sunrise, the OGI camera failed to detect the CH 4 plume. The WRF‐GHG large‐eddy simulation (LES) with 32 m grid spacing successfully reproduced these CH 4 enhancements. In situ measurements together with numerical simulations illustrate the impact of the transition from a stable boundary layer in the early morning to a convective boundary layer at noon on the dispersion of CH 4 plumes. Additionally, CH 4 plumes from a cattle farm in Oklahoma are briefly examined using the same modeling approach.

Hu, Xiao‐Ming [Center for Analysis and Prediction ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗