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At least 505 records · Page 28

A New Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction Scheme for Seasonal Precipitation

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗

Cooperative Game Approach to Optimal Merging Sequence and On-Ramp Merging Control of Connected and Automated Vehicles

Vehicle merging is one of the main causes of reduced traffic efficiency, increased risk of collision, and fuel consumption. Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) can improve traffic efficiency, increase safety, and reduce the negative environmental impacts through effective communication and control. Therefore, to improve the traffic efficiency and reduce the fuel consumption in on-ramp scenarios, this paper addresses the global and optimal coordination of the CAVs in a merging zone. In this work, a cooperative multi-player game-based optimization framework and an algorithm are presented to coordinate vehicles and achieve minimum values for the global pay-off conditions. Fuel consumption, passenger comfort, and travel time within the merging control zone were used as the pay-off conditions. After analyzing the characteristics of the merging control zone and selecting the appropriate control decision duration, multi-player games were decomposed into multiple two-player games. An optimal merging strategy was, thereby, derived from a pay-off matrix, and minimum payoffs were predicted for a number of different potential strategies. The optimal trajectory corresponding to the predicted minimum payoffs was then utilized as the control law to coordinate the vehicles merging. The proposed control scheme derives an optimal merging sequence and an optimal trajectory for each vehicle. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated through simulation. Finally, the proposed controller is compared with two alternative methods to demonstrate its potential to reduce fuel consumption and travel time and to improve passenger comfort and traffic efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

SNoGloDe: A Structured Nonlinear Global Decomposition Solver

Large-scale optimization problems often require decomposition strategies and customized algorithms to achieve optimal solutions within a reasonable time. Building on the work of Cao and Zavala (2019) for solving nonlinear two-stage stochastic programs to global optimality, we implement and extend their approach. We generalize to optimization problems reformulated with a block-angular constraint structure (e.g., temporal decomposition). Our framework, written in Python using Pyomo, is highly customizable and enables parallel execution of the decomposition. SNoGloDe allows tailored branching strategies, lower bounding problems, and candidate generators to leverage problem-specific knowledge. To demonstrate effectiveness, we compare SNoGloDe’s performance with Gurobi on a temporally decomposed produced water case study.

algorithms↗

Global and regional perspectives on optimizing thermo-responsive dynamic windows for energy-efficient buildings

Architectural thermo-responsive dynamic windows offer an autonomous solution for solar heat regulation, thereby reducing building energy consumption. Previous work has emphasized the significance of thermo-responsive windows in hot climates due to their role in solar heat control and subsequent energy conservation; conversely, our study provides a different perspective. Through a global-scale analysis, we explore over 100 material samples and execute more than 2.8 million simulations across over two thousand global locations. World heatmap results, derived from well-trained artificial neural network models, reveal that thermo-responsive windows are especially useful in climates where buildings demand both heating and cooling energy, whereas thermo-responsive windows with optimal transition temperatures show no dynamic features in most of low-latitude tropical regions. Additionally, this study provides a practical guideline and an open-source mapping tool to optimize the intrinsic properties of thermo-responsive materials and evaluate their energy performance for sustainable buildings at various geographical scales.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evolutionary Multiobjective Design Targeting a Field Programmable Transistor Array

This paper introduces the ISPAES algorithm for circuit design targeting a Field Programmable Transistor Array (FPTA). The use of evolutionary algorithms is common in circuit design problems, where a single fitness function drives the evolution process. Frequently, the design problem is subject to several goals or operating constraints, thus, designing a suitable fitness function catching all requirements becomes an issue. Such a problem is amenable for multi-objective optimization, however, evolutionary algorithms lack an inherent mechanism for constraint handling. This paper introduces ISPAES, an evolutionary optimization algorithm enhanced with a constraint handling technique. Several design problems targeting a FPTA show the potential of our approach.

global optimization↗

A multitree approach for global solution of ACOPF problems using piecewise outer approximations

Electricity markets rely on the rapid solution of the optimal power flow (OPF) problem to determine generator power levels and set nodal prices. Traditionally, the OPF problem has been formulated using linearized, approximate models, ignoring nonlinear alternating current (AC) physics. These approaches do not guarantee global optimality or even feasibility in the real ACOPF problem. We introduce an outer-approximation approach to solve the ACOPF problem to global optimality based on alternating solution of upper- and lower-bounding problems. The lower-bounding problem is a piecewise relaxation based on strong second-order cone relaxations of the ACOPF, and these piecewise relaxations are selectively refined at each major iteration through increased variable domain partitioning. Our approach is able to efficiently solve all but one of the test cases considered to an optimality gap below 0.1%. This approach opens the door for global solution of MINLP problems with AC power flow equations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Convex quadratic relaxations for mixed-integer nonlinear programs in power systems

Here, this paper presents a set of new convex quadratic relaxations for nonlinear and mixed-integer nonlinear programs arising in power systems. The considered models are motivated by hybrid discrete/continuous applications where existing approximations do not provide optimality guarantees. The new relaxations offer computational efficiency along with minimal optimality gaps, providing an interesting alternative to state-of-the-art semidefinite programming relaxations. Finally, three case studies in optimal power flow, optimal transmission switching and capacitor placement demonstrate the benefits of the new relaxations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Efficient and Optimal Attitude Determination Using Recursive Global Positioning System Signal Operations

In this paper, a new and efficient algorithm is developed for attitude determination from Global Positioning System signals. The new algorithm is derived from a generalized nonlinear predictive filter for nonlinear systems. This uses a one time-step ahead approach to propagate a simple kinematics model for attitude determination. The advantages of the new algorithm over previously developed methods include: it provides optimal attitudes even for coplanar baseline configurations; it guarantees convergence even for poor initial conditions; it is a non-iterative algorithm; and it is computationally efficient. These advantages clearly make the new algorithm well suited to on-board applications. The performance of the new algorithm is tested on a dynamic hardware simulator. Results indicate that the new algorithm accurately estimates the attitude of a moving vehicle, and provides robust attitude estimates even when other methods, such as a linearized least-squares approach, fail due to poor initial starting conditions.

Crassidis, John L.↗

Multidisciplinary optimization of controlled space structures with global sensitivity equations

A new method for the preliminary design of controlled space structures is presented. The method coordinates standard finite element structural analysis, multivariable controls, and nonlinear programming codes and allows simultaneous optimization of the structures and control systems of a spacecraft. Global sensitivity equations are a key feature of this method. The preliminary design of a generic geostationary platform is used to demonstrate the multidisciplinary optimization method. Fifteen design variables are used to optimize truss member sizes and feedback gain values. The goal is to reduce the total mass of the structure and the vibration control system while satisfying constraints on vibration decay rate. Incorporating the nonnegligible mass of actuators causes an essential coupling between structural design variables and control design variables. The solution of the demonstration problem is an important step toward a comprehensive preliminary design capability for structures and control systems. Use of global sensitivity equations helps solve optimization problems that have a large number of design variables and a high degree of coupling between disciplines.

Padula, Sharon L.↗

Minimization of Measurement Uncertainty in Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a technique for interrogating optical fiber sensors to generate relative, quasi-distributed measurements. Although Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is increasingly being adopted for aerospace, energy production, and structural monitoring applications, the quantification of uncertainty for OFDR measurements has not been developed beyond sparse empirical relationships. To address this knowledge gap, an uncertainty metric for OFDR measurements was developed. This uncertainty metric was applied to weight the edges between OFDR measurements on directed correlation graphs and analyzed to minimize the cumulative uncertainty. In conclusion, this work is the first to propose an uncertainty metric for OFDR and provides a generalized mathematical framework for optimizing OFDR hardware selection, optical fiber sensor selection, and postprocessing strategy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A superstructure-based framework for bio-separation network synthesis

Modern biotechnologies enable the production of chemicals using engineered microorganisms. However, the cost of downstream recovery and purification steps is high, which means that the feasibility of bio-based chemicals production depends heavily on the synthesis of cost-effective separation networks. To this end, we develop a superstructure-based framework for bio-separation network synthesis. Based on general separation principles and insights obtained from industrial processes for specific products, we first identify four separation stages: cell treatment, product phase isolation, concentration and purification, and refinement. For each stage, we systematically implement a set of connectivity rules to develop stage-superstructures, all of which are then integrated to generate a general superstructure that accounts for all types of chemicals that can be produced using microorganisms. Here we further develop a superstructure reduction method to solve specific instances, based on product attributes, technology availability, case-specific considerations, and final product stream specifications. A general optimization model, including short-cut models for all technologies, is formulated. The proposed framework enables preliminary synthesis and analysis of bio-separation networks, and thus estimation of separation costs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimizing multiple reliable forward contracts for reservoir allocation using multitime scale streamflow forecasts

Streamflow forecasts at multiple time scales provide a new opportunity for reservoir management to address competing objectives. Market instruments such as forward contracts with specified reliability are considered as a tool that may help address the perceived risk associated with the use of such forecasts in lieu of traditional operation and allocation strategies. A water allocation process that enables multiple contracts for water supply and hydropower production with different durations, while maintaining a prescribed level of flood risk reduction, is presented. The allocation process is supported by an optimization model that considers multitime scale ensemble forecasts of monthly streamflow and flood volume over the upcoming season and year, the desired reliability and pricing of proposed contracts for hydropower and water supply. It solves for the size of contracts at each reliability level that can be allocated for each future period, while meeting target end of period reservoir storage with a prescribed reliability. The contracts may be insurable, given that their reliability is verified through retrospective modeling. The process can allow reservoir operators to overcome their concerns as to the appropriate skill of probabilistic forecasts, while providing water users with short–term and long–term guarantees as to how much water or energy they may be allocated. An application of the optimization model to the Bhakra Dam, India, provides an illustration of the process. In conclusion, the issues of forecast skill and contract performance are examined. A field engagement of the idea is useful to develop a real–world perspective and needs a suitable institutional environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An MINLP formulation for the optimization of multicomponent distillation configurations

Designing configurations for multicomponent distillation, a ubiquitous process in chemical and petrochemical industries, is often challenging. This is because, as the number of components increases, the number of admissible distillation configurations grows rapidly and these configurations vary substantially in their energy needs. Consequently, if a method could identify a few energy-efficient choices from this large set of alternatives, it would be extremely attractive to process designers. This paper develops here such a method by solving a Mixed Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP) that is formulated to pick, among the regular-column configurations of Shah and Agrawal (2010b), those configurations that have a low vapor-duty requirement. To compute the minimum vapor-duty requirement for each column within the configuration, we use techniques that rely on the Underwood’s method. The combined difficulty arising from the nonlinearity of Underwood equations and the combinatorial explosion of the choice-set of alternatives poses unmistakable challenges for the branch-and-bound algorithm, the current method of choice to globally solve MINLPs. To address this difficulty, we exploit the structure of Underwood equations and derive valid cuts that expedite the convergence of branch-and-bound by enabling global solvers, such as BARON, infer tighter bounds on Underwood roots. This provides a quick way to identify a few lucrative alternative configurations for separation of a given non-azeotropic mixture. We illustrate the practicality of our approach on a case-study concerning heavy-crude distillation and on various other examples from the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hierarchical optimization for neutron scattering problems

We present a scalable optimization method for neutron scattering problems that determines confidence regions of simulation parameters in lattice dynamics models used to fit neutron scattering data for crystalline solids. The method uses physics-based hierarchical dimension reduction in both the computational simulation domain and the parameter space. We demonstrate for silicon that after a few iterations the method converges to parameters values (interatomic force-constants) computed with density functional theory simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Optimization-Based Framework to Define the Probabilistic Design Space of Pharmaceutical Processes with Model Uncertainty

To increase manufacturing flexibility and system understanding in pharmaceutical development, the FDA launched the quality by design (QbD) initiative. Within QbD, the design space is the multidimensional region (of the input variables and process parameters) where product quality is assured. Given the high cost of extensive experimentation, there is a need for computational methods to estimate the probabilistic design space that considers interactions between critical process parameters and critical quality attributes, as well as model uncertainty. In this paper we propose two algorithms that extend the flexibility test and flexibility index formulations to replace simulation-based analysis and identify the probabilistic design space more efficiently. The effectiveness and computational efficiency of these approaches is shown on a small example and an industrial case study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Computationally efficient optimization models for preliminary distillation column design and separation energy targeting

We propose versatile shortcut distillation column and separation energy targeting models that are well-suited for superstructure-based process synthesis. The models are based on a novel reformulation of the Underwood equations to address systems where the components that are present in the feed can vary due to zero flow rates of some components. Also, we propose valid constraints, resulting in a significant enhancement of the computational performance of the models. Furthermore, the proposed distillation column model can automatically identify adequate key components and the energy requirement of a desired separation task, while considering a wide range of types of separations including non-sharp/sloppy splits. Also, the proposed separation energy targeting model can be used to estimate an energy requirement target for the separation of a mixture without finding detail network configurations. Due to their versatility and computational efficiency, the proposed models can be readily used for and expand the scope of superstructure-based process synthesis approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A generalized superstructure-based framework for process synthesis

We propose a general framework for the formulation of superstructure-based optimization models for holistic process synthesis. First, we redefine the fundamental problems of reactor, separation, and heat exchanger network synthesis, by presenting generalized problem statements, to make them amenable to seamless integration with each other. Second, we describe the general forms of models that can be developed to address these generalized problems and identify some key characteristics. Notably, for each system, we identify internal variables used only within the system, cost variables used in the objective function, and, importantly, coupling variables for the coupling between systems. Third, we outline some literature models that can be used to address the generalized problems and present new models to couple the three systems. Finally, we show how the individual components (systems and coupling models) can be integrated to formulate a single simultaneous reactor, separation, and heat exchanger network synthesis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗