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DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations

Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model resolution and physics, but is also due to a lack of consistency in gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including gridded rain gauge and satellite data, to assess historical simulations from sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We separately evaluate summer and winter precipitation over the United States (US) with a comprehensive set of extreme precipitation indices, including an assessment of precipitation frequency, intensity and spatial structure. The observations exhibit significant differences in their estimates of area-average intensity distributions and spatial patterns of the mean and extremes of precipitation over the US. In general, the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs better than most individual models at capturing daily precipitation distributions and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in comparison to gauge-based data. Also, the representation of the extreme precipitation indices by the CMIP6 models is better in the summer than winter. Although the ‘standard’ horizontal-resolution can vary significantly across CMIP6 models, from ~0.7° to ~2.8°, we find that resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Overall, our results highlight common biases in CMIP6 models and demonstrate that no single model is consistently the most reliable across all indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Critical Role Of Conversion Cost And Comparative Advantage In Modeling Agricultural Land Use Change

The difference in land use modeling approaches is an important uncertain factor in evaluating future climate scenarios in global economic models. We compare five widely used land use modeling approaches: constrained optimization, constant elasticity of transformation (CET), the additive form of constant elasticity of transformation (ACET), logit, and Ricardian. We demonstrate that the approaches differ not only by the extent of parameter uses but also by the definition of conversion cost and the consideration of comparative advantage implied by land heterogeneity. We develop a generalized hybrid approach that incorporates ACET/logit and Ricardian to account for both conversion cost and comparative advantage. We use this hybrid approach to estimate future climate impacts on agriculture. We find a welfare loss of about 0.38–0.46% of the global GDP. We demonstrate that ignoring land heterogeneity or land conversion costs underestimates climate impacts on agricultural production and welfare.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-decade high-resolution regional hindcasts for wave energy resource characterization in U.S. coastal waters

Long-term, high-resolution, regional wave hindcast datasets were generated using unstructured-grid Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models for the U.S. coastal waters to support nearshore wave energy development in the U.S. including those bordering U.S. territorial islands. The model domains resolved the entire U.S. exclusive economic zones, with a spatial resolution of approximately 200 m nearshore. The regional SWAN models were driven by the global WAVEWATCH III® model outputs and run for a 42-year period from 1979 to 2020. Extensive model validations were performed using buoy observations and altimeter data. Regional resource characterization was performed based on hindcast data points at 2 km from shore and along the 100 m isobath. Aggregations of wave resource parameters were produced, and spatial and seasonal variations were analyzed for all the regions. Wave resource metrics recommended by international standards, including a 3-hour time series of six resource parameters, hourly frequency- and directionally resolved wave spectra at selected “virtual buoy” locations, and average-annual values of omni-directional wave power, significant wave height, and energy period are publicly disseminated through an Amazon Web Service and a Marine Energy Atlas web application tool to facilitate wave energy research and a wide range of coastal ocean applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Floods due to Atmospheric Rivers along the U.S. West Coast: The Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture in a Warming Climate

Precipitation extremes are projected to become more frequent along the U.S. West Coast due to increased atmospheric river (AR) activity, but the frequency of less intense precipitation events may decrease. Antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions can have a large impact on flood responses, especially if prestorm precipitation decreases. Taken together with increased antecedent evaporative demand due to warming, this would result in reduced soil moisture at the onset of extreme precipitation events. In this work, we examine the impact of ASM on AR-related floods in a warming climate in three basins that form a transect along the U.S. Pacific Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. Additionally, we ran the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) over the three river basins using forcings downscaled from 10 global climate models (GCMs). We examined the dynamic role of ASM by comparing the changes in the largest 50, 100, and 150 extreme events in two periods, 1951–2000 and 2050–99. In the Chehalis basin, the projected fraction of AR-related extreme discharge events slightly decreases. In the Russian basin, this fraction increases, however, and more substantially so in the Santa Margarita basin. This is due to increases in AR-related extreme precipitation events, as well as the fact that the relationship of extreme precipitation to extreme discharge is strengthened by projected increases in year-to-year volatility of annual precipitation in California, which increases the likelihood of concurrent occurrence of large storms and wet ASM conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

ambrosia: An R package for calculating and analyzing food demand that is responsive to changing incomes and prices

The ambrosia R package was developed to calculate food demand for staples and non-staple commodities that is responsive to changing levels of incomes and prices. ambrosia implements the framework to quantify food demand as established by Edmonds et al. (Edmonds et al. 2017) and allows the user to explore and estimate different variables related to the food demand system. Currently ambrosia provides 3 main functions: (1) calculation of food demand for any given set of parameters including income levels and prices (2) estimation of parameters within a given a dataset. Note: ambrosia is used to calculate parameters for the food demand model implemented in the Global Change Analysis Model(GCAM) (3) exploration and preparation of raw data before starting a parameter estimation

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effects of turbulence-radiation coupling in pressurized oxy-combustion

Concerns over climate change have led to numerous efforts in developing low-carbon energy technologies. Pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emission in power generation. Due to the strong impact of pressure on thermal radiation, heat transfer in POC differs significantly from the situation of conventional atmospheric pressure combustion. Thus thermal radiation in POC needs to be investigated to aid new combustor development. The present computational work is a step in this direction, initiating a systematic analysis of thermal radiation and heat transfer in a pilot-scale POC combustor, which has been developed at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). In a POC process, pulverized coal is burned under elevated pressure and O2-CO2 environment. While most previous computational works on flame radiation focused on atmospheric pressure condition, this work considered a pressurized flame. Specifically, a 15-bar POC combustor of power 50 kW is modeled employing the Ansys FLUENT commercial platform, using both Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modeling and large-eddy simulation (LES). A recently published and validated global radiation model is used to predict the radiative property of the flue gas. The discrete ordinates (DO) radiation model is chosen to solve the radiative transport equation. Incident radiation on the walls of the combustor is identified and investigated. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized combustor, thermal radiation exhibits similar patterns in the RANS and LES models. However, the magnitudes of radiation are different in both models, presumably because interactions between radiation and turbulence are embedded in the LES model but not in the RANS model. This difference thereby underlines the major goal of this research: investigating the impact of such turbulence-to-radiation coupling on thermal radiation in a pilot-scale POC setting. Most previous studies on turbulence-to-radiation interactions focused on bench-scale, atmospheric pressure flames. This work is the first effort to extend this study to a pilot-scale, pressurized flame.

Li, Lei↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating precipitation distributions at regional scales: a benchmarking framework and application to CMIP5 and 6 models

Abstract. As the resolution of global Earth system models increases, regional-scale evaluations are becoming ever more important. This study presents a framework for quantifying precipitation distributions at regional scales and applies it to evaluate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 models. We employ the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) climate reference regions over land and propose refinements to the oceanic regions based on the homogeneity of precipitation distribution characteristics. The homogeneous regions are identified as heavy-, moderate-, and light-precipitating areas by K-means clustering of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) version 6 final run product (IMERG) precipitation frequency and amount distributions. With the global domain partitioned into 62 regions, including 46 land and 16 ocean regions, we apply 10 established precipitation distribution metrics. The collection includes metrics focused on the maximum peak, lower 10th percentile, and upper 90th percentile in precipitation amount and frequency distributions; the similarity between observed and modeled frequency distributions; an unevenness measure based on cumulative amount; average total intensity on all days with precipitation; and number of precipitating days each year. We apply our framework to 25 CMIP5 and 41 CMIP6 models, as well as six observation-based products of daily precipitation. Our results indicate that many CMIP5 and 6 models substantially overestimate the observed light-precipitation amount and frequency, as well as the number of precipitating days, especially over midlatitude regions outside of some land regions in the Americas and Eurasia. Improvement from CMIP5 to 6 is shown in some regions, especially in midlatitude regions, but it is not evident globally, and over the tropics most metrics point toward degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing free tropospheric quasi-equilibrium for different GCM resolutions using a cloud-resolving model simulation of tropical convection

Abstract This study examines the free-tropospheric quasi-equilibrium at different global climate model (GCM) resolutions using the simulation of tropical convection by a cloud-resolving model during the Tropical Western Pacific International Cloud Experiment. The simulated dynamic and thermodynamic fields within the model domain are averaged over subdomains of different sizes equivalent to different GCM resolutions. These coarse-grained fields are then used to compute CAPE and its change with time, and their relationships with simulated convection. Results show that CAPE change with time is controlled predominantly by variations of thermodynamic properties in the planetary boundary layer for all subdomain sizes ranging from 64 to 4 km. Lag correlation analysis shows that CAPE generation by the free-tropospheric dynamical advection (dCAPE ls ) leads convective precipitation but is in phase with convective mass flux at 600 mb and 500 mb vertical velocity for all subdomain sizes. However, the correlation coefficients and regression slopes decrease as the subdomain size decreases for subdomain sizes smaller than 16 km. This is probably due to increased randomness of convection and more scale-dependence of the relationships when the subdomain size reaches the grey zone. By examining the sensitivity of the relationships of convection with dCAPE ls to temporal scales in different subdomain size, it shows that the quasi-equilibrium between dCAPE ls and convection holds well for timescales of 30 min or longer at all subdomain sizes. These results suggest that the free tropospheric quasi-equilibrium assumption may still be useable even for GCM resolutions in the grey zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improved Convective Ice Microphysics Parameterization in the NCAR CAM Model

Partitioning deep convective cloud condensates into components that sediment and detrain, known to be a challenge for global climate models, is important for cloud vertical distribution and anvil cloud formation. In this study, we address this issue by improving the convective microphysics scheme in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). The improvements include: (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. Results from the default and modified CAM5.3 models were evaluated against observations from the U.S. Department of Energy Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) field campaign. The default model overestimates ice amount, which is largely attributed to the underestimation of convective ice particle sedimentation. By considering cloud ice sedimentation and rimed ice particles and applying a new convective snow terminal velocity parameterization, the vertical distribution of ice amount is much improved in the midtroposphere and upper troposphere when compared to observations. The vertical distribution of ice condensate also agrees well with observational best estimates upon considering snow detrainment. Further, comparison with observed convective updrafts reveals that current bulk model fails to reproduce the observed updraft magnitude and occurrence frequency, suggesting spectral distributions be required to simulate the subgrid updraft heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment

Abstract The persistent and growing spread in effective climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models necessitates rigorous evaluation of their cloud feedbacks. Here we evaluate several cloud feedback components simulated in 19 climate models against benchmark values determined via an expert synthesis of observational, theoretical, and high‐resolution modeling studies. We find that models with smallest feedback errors relative to these benchmark values generally have moderate total cloud feedbacks (0.4–0.6 W m −2 K −1 ) and ECS (3–4 K). Those with largest errors generally have total cloud feedback and ECS values that are too large or too small. Models tend to achieve large positive total cloud feedbacks by having several cloud feedback components that are systematically biased high rather than by having a single anomalously large component, and vice versa. In general, better simulation of mean‐state cloud properties leads to stronger but not necessarily better cloud feedbacks. The Python code base provided herein could be applied to developmental versions of models to assess cloud feedbacks and cloud errors and place them in the context of other models and of expert judgment in real‐time during model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mass‐Conserving Downscaling of Climate Model Precipitation Over Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Applications

Abstract A mass‐conserving method to downscale precipitation from global climate models (GCMs) using sub‐grid‐scale topography and modeled 700‐mb wind direction is presented. Runoff is simulated using a stand‐alone hydrological model, with this and several other methods as inputs, and compared to runoff simulated using historical observations over the western contiguous United States. Results suggest the mitigation of grid‐scale biases is more critical than downscaling for some regions with large wet biases (e.g., the Great Basin and Upper Colorado). In other regions (e.g., the Pacific Northwest) the new method produces more realistic sub‐grid‐scale variability in runoff compared to unadjusted GCM output and a simpler downscaling method. The presented method also brings the runoff centroid timing closer to that simulated with observations for all subregions examined.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM version 1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERFaer simulated by the E3SM version 1 (E3SMv1) atmospheric model using both century-long free-running atmosphere–land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERFaer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and we evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between pre-industrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period of 1870–1969. In addition to the regional differences in the simulated relationships, a reduced sensitivity in cloud droplet number and other cloud properties to aerosol perturbations is seen when the aerosol perturbation is large. Consequently, the global annual mean ERFaer magnitude does not increase after around 1970. The ERFaer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol–cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features large relative changes in the cloud droplet effective radius in response to aerosol perturbations. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds (that causes a large effect on longwave ERFaer). As suggested by a previous study, the large ERFaer appears to be one of the reasons why the model cannot reproduce the observed global mean temperature evolution in the second half of the 20th century. Sensitivity simulations are performed to understand which parameterization and/or parameter changes have a large impact on the simulated ERFaer. The ERFaer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-model forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERFaer, it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global Importance of Secondary Ice Production

Measured ice crystal number concentrations are often orders of magnitude higher than the number concentrations of ice nucleating particles, indicating the existence of secondary ice production (SIP) in clouds. Here, we present the first study to examine the global importance of SIP through the droplet shattering during freezing of rain, ice-ice collision fragmentation, and rime splintering, using a global climate model. Our results show that SIP happens quite uniformly in the two hemispheres and dominates the ice formation in the moderately cold clouds with temperatures warmer than –15°C. SIP decreases the global annual average liquid water path by –14.6 g m –2 (–22%), increases the ice water path by 8.7 g m –2 (23%), improving the model agreement with observations. SIP changes the global annual average shortwave, longwave, and net cloud forcing by 2.1, –1.0, and 1.1 W m –2 , respectively, highlighting the importance of SIP on cloud properties on the global scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗