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NASA NTRS2011

Characterizing Land Surface Change and Levee Stability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Using UAVSAR Radar Imagery

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is one of the primary water sources for the state of California and represents a complex geographical area comprised of tidal marshland, levee rimmed islands that are used primarily for agriculture, and urban encroachment. Land subsidence has dropped many of the Delta islands 3 to >7 meters below mean sea level and requires nearly 1700 km of levees to maintain the integrity of the islands and flow of water through the Delta. The current average subsidence rates for each island varies, with 1.23 cm/yr on Sherman Island and 2.2 cm/yr for Bacon Island, as determined by ground-based instruments located at isolated points in the Delta. The Delta's status as the most critical water resource for the state, an endangered ecosystem, and an area continuously threatened with levee breakage from hydrostatic pressure and the danger of earthquakes on several major faults in the San Francisco area make it a focus of monitoring efforts by both the state and national government. This activity is now almost entirely done by ground-based efforts, but the benefits of using remote sensing for wide scale spatial coverage and frequent temporal coverage is obvious. The UAVSAR airborne polarimetric and differential interferometric L-band synthetic aperture radar system has been used to collected monthly images of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and much of the adjacent Suisun Marsh since July 2009 to characterize levee stability, image spatially varied subsidence, and assess how well the UAVSAR performs in an area with widespread agriculture production.

geographical area↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field Experience Detecting PV Underperformance in Real Time Using Existing Instrumentation

Maintenance at large-scale photovoltaic plants employs a mix of preventative and corrective maintenance practices. Large outages, such as an inverter tripping offline, are often easy to detect. More subtle sub-inverter faults and failures can accumulate and go unnoticed for months or years. A software-based fault detection method has been developed to analyze commonly measured data from large-scale PV plants for more timely detection of subtle underperformance. The method has been demonstrated on eight datasets from large-scale plants with high accuracy of detection. Results are validated using aerial infrared scanning. String outages are detected with a true positive rate of 73 percent and tracker issues are detected with a true positive rate of 88 percent. The developed method can be uniformly applied to photovoltaic plants across a range of scales and configurations to assess performance, quickly detect underperformance, and determine the source and location of failures. The results inform and improve operations and maintenance at PV plants, ultimately aiding in improved affordability, reliability, availability, and resiliency of solar electricity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Cable Connectors: A Comparative Assessment of the Present State of the Industry

The consequences of failure for balance-of-systems components (such as photovoltaic (PV) cable connectors) include offline module string(s); low system voltage; arc, ground, insulation, and overtemperature faults; triggered fuse(s); system shutdown; and fire. The degradation modes for connectors are studied here through an industry survey and its subsequent examination, which are compared with field-degraded specimens. A total of 117 specimens were obtained from a variety of locations and climates or accelerated tests. A failure analysis for connectors from PV installations was developed (and applied to 54 specimens), including nondestructive examinations (photography, a custom resistance-current scan, and X-ray computed tomography) and destructive examinations (featuring milling of the external plastic, extraction of the internal convolute spring, and potting and polishing in cross section). Surface and through-thickness composition of the metal pins and springs was quantified using scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was used to verify the base polymer materials and compare the chemical structure of the connector body, bushing, end nut, and o-ring. Thermogravimetric analysis and differential scanning calorimetry were used to further verify the degradation of the same polymeric components.

cable connectors↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is supporting the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multi-faceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) technologies into national decarbonization plans and community energy plans. Currently, there is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource datasets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies to provide the basis for supporting private sector investment. This project is focused on collecting baseline datasets, updating conceptual models, and creating Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) workflows for low-temperature (<150 degrees Celsius) geothermal resources of different geothermal play types (i.e., sedimentary basin, orogenic belts, and radiogenic geothermal play types) that could be used for geothermal heating and cooling (GHC), combined heat and power (CHP), and other geothermal direct uses (GDU) applications. Low-temperature geothermal resources are defined as reservoirs - natural or engineered - with temperatures <150 degrees Celsius. While the focus in the NREL effort is on GHC, resources at the upper end of this temperature range can also be used for small-scale power generation. This project does not include Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) technologies because they can be effectively developed almost anywhere. Low-temperature geothermal resources have not been studied as extensively as higher- to medium-temperature geothermal resources, but there is recent interest in improving understanding of these types of resources with an uptick of interest in geothermal technologies for decarbonizing heating and cooling systems. In addition, Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and other emerging technologies for exploiting petrothermal resources have opened the possibility of utilizing deep sedimentary basin systems, where porous media provide permeability and high temperatures can be reached at great depths. This project takes the approach of classifying low- temperature geothermal resources by geothermal play type (GPT). We defined and characterized three major classes of low-temperature GPT: sedimentary basins, orogenic systems, and radiogenic systems. We develop methodologies for evaluating and analyzing the potential for these resources building off the PFA approach to de-risking geothermal exploration and characterization. The proposed PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: 1) identifying relevant data (e.g., datasets such bottom-hole temperatures from oil and gas wells, heat flow data, Quaternary faults and stress field data, geophysical data, etc.); 2) grouping and weighting of relevant datasets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, risk, and economic criteria); 3) uncertainty quantification; 4) developing favorability or common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection; and 5) estimating electric power generation and heating potential at those locations using the GeoRePORT Resource Size Assessment Tool (RSAT). This project should facilitate future deployment of GHC, CHP, and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources. Increased deployment of GHC and GDU will help achieve national and local decarbonization goals.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Recognition of partially occluded threat objects using the annealed Hopefield network

Recognition of partially occluded objects has been an important issue to airport security because occlusion causes significant problems in identifying and locating objects during baggage inspection. The neural network approach is suitable for the problems in the sense that the inherent parallelism of neural networks pursues many hypotheses in parallel resulting in high computation rates. Moreover, they provide a greater degree of robustness or fault tolerance than conventional computers. The annealed Hopfield network which is derived from the mean field annealing (MFA) has been developed to find global solutions of a nonlinear system. In the study, it has been proven that the system temperature of MFA is equivalent to the gain of the sigmoid function of a Hopfield network. In our early work, we developed the hybrid Hopfield network (HHN) for fast and reliable matching. However, HHN doesn't guarantee global solutions and yields false matching under heavily occluded conditions because HHN is dependent on initial states by its nature. In this paper, we present the annealed Hopfield network (AHN) for occluded object matching problems. In AHN, the mean field theory is applied to the hybird Hopfield network in order to improve computational complexity of the annealed Hopfield network and provide reliable matching under heavily occluded conditions. AHN is slower than HHN. However, AHN provides near global solutions without initial restrictions and provides less false matching than HHN. In conclusion, a new algorithm based upon a neural network approach was developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the automated inspection of threat objects from x-ray images. The robustness of the algorithm is proved by identifying occluded target objects with large tolerance of their features.

Kim, Jung H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Constraints on Early Mars Evolution and Dichotomy Origin from Relaxation Modeling of Dichotomy Boundary in the Ismenius Region

The Martian dichotomy is a global feature separating the northern and southern hemispheres. The 3.5 - 4 Gyr old feature is manifested by a topographic difference of 2-6 km and crustal thickness difference of approx. 15 - 30 km between the two hemispheres. In the Ismenius region, sections of the boundary are characterized by a single scarp with a slope of approx. 20 deg. - 23 deg. and are believed to be among the most well preserved parts of the dichotomy boundary. The origin of the dichotomy is unknown. Endogenic hypotheses do not predict the steep slopes (scarps) of the dichotomy boundary. Exogenic models for forming the northern lowlands by impact cratering, associate the scarps along the dichotomy boundary with craters' rims, but are not globally consistent with the topography and gravity. In order to better understand the origin of the Martian dichotomy, it is necessary to know if the steep scarps along the boundary represent the original shape of the dichotomy. Smrekar et al. presented evidence showing that the boundary scarp in Ismenius is a fault along which the highland crust was down faulted. We test whether the relaxation process could produce faulting along the dichotomy boundary and examine the crustal and mantle conditions that would allow for faulting to occur within 1 Gyr and preserve the long wavelength topography over another 3 Gyr. We approach the problem by a combination of numerical and semi-analytical modeling. We test different viscosity profiles and crustal thicknesses by comparing our modeled magnitude, location and timing of plastic strain and displacements to detailed geologic observations in the Ismenius region.

Guest, A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Maturing Technologies for Stirling Space Power Generation

Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being developed as an option to provide power on future space science missions where robotic spacecraft will orbit, flyby, land or rove. A Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) could offer space missions a more efficient power system that uses one fourth of the nuclear fuel and decreases the thermal footprint of the current state of the art. The RPS Program Office, working in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), manages projects to develop thermoelectric and dynamic power systems, including Stirling Radioisotope Generators (SRGs). The Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project, located at Glenn Research Center (GRC), is developing Stirling-based subsystems, including convertors and controllers. The SCTD Project also performs research that focuses on a wide variety of objectives, including increasing convertor temperature capability to enable new environments, improving system reliability or fault tolerance, reducing mass or size, and developing advanced concepts that are mission enabling. Research activity includes maturing subsystems, assemblies, and components to prepare them for infusion into future convertor and generator designs. The status of several technology development efforts are described here. As part of the maturation process, technologies are assessed for readiness in higher-level subsystems. To assess the readiness level of the Dual Convertor Controller (DCC), a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) was performed and the process and results are shown. Stirling technology research is being performed by the SCTD Project for NASA's RPS Program Office, where tasks focus on maturation of Stirling-based systems and subsystems for future space science missions.

Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator↗

NASA NTRS2016

Maturing Technologies for Stirling Space Power Generation

High-Temperature Linear Alternator↗

NASA NTRS2016

Revisiting the Field Geology of Taurus-Littrow

Integration of Apollo 17 field observations and photographs, sample investigations, Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera images, Chandrayaan-1 Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M(sup 3)) spectra, and Miniature Radio Frequency (Mini-RF) S-band radar images provides new insights into the geology of the valley of Taurus-Littrow on the Moon. Connecting the various remote observations to sample data enables a set of new conclusions to be drawn regarding the geological evolution of the valley. Structural considerations and published and recalculated Ar-40/Ar-39 analyses of samples from the North Massif and the Sculptured Hills indicate that the Crisium basin formed about 3.93 Ga; the Serenitatis basin about 3.82 Ga; and the Imbrium basin no earlier than 3.82 Ga and no later than the average of 3.72 Ga for 33 age dates from samples of the valley's mare basalts. Strong evidence continues to support the conclusion of others (Lucchitta, 1972; Spudis et al., 2011; Fassett et al., 2012) that the Sculptured Hills physiographic unit consists of Imbrium ejecta. Interpretation of M(sup 3) spectral data and Apollo 17 samples indicate that rock units of the Sculptured Hills consist of a largely coherent, Mg-suite pluton. LROC NAC stereo images and Mini-RF data indicate the presence of several exposed pyroclastic fissures across the Sculptured Hills. Rim boulders at Camelot Crater constitute nearly in situ wall rocks of that crater rather than ejecta and provide an opportunity for investigations of remanent magnetic field orientation at the time of the eruption of late mare basalt lavas in the valley. Paleomagnetic field orientation information also may be obtained relative to melt-breccia contacts in North Massif boulders that suggest original horizontal orientations. LROC images indicate the existence of two temporally separate light mantle avalanche deposits. The origin, potential flow mechanisms, and geology of the youngest avalanche from the South Massif have been clarified. The existence of two distinct light mantle avalanches raises doubt about the association of either light mantle avalanche with secondary impacts related to the Tycho impact event. Alternatively, the Lee-Lincoln thrust fault appears to have triggered the second light mantle avalanche between 70 and 110 Ma. A simple structural analysis shows that this thrust fault dips 20-25 degrees to the southwest where it crosses the North Massif and to the west where it crosses the valley floor. Mini-RF data reveal a line of reduced reflections roughly perpendicular to contours on the North Massif about 3 km to the east of the Lee-Lincoln fault. Although this line is possibly an older ancillary fault, LROC NAC stereo images indicate that it may be best explained as a pyroclastic fissure. A debris flow of dark, apparent pyroclastic ash lies below the southeast end of the potential fissure. Finally, young lunar impact glass sample 70019 has been precisely located within LROC NAC images and oriented for the first time using 60 mm (f.l.) sample documentation photographs. Sample 70019 can now be employed in lunar paleomagnetic field orientation studies.

Schmitt, H. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Geologic CO 2 Migration Pathways in Farnsworth Field, NW Anadarko Basin

This study reports on analyses of natural, geologic CO 2 migration paths in Farnsworth Oil Field, northern Texas, where CO 2 was injected into the Pennsylvanian Morrow B reservoir as part of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration efforts. We interpret 2D and 3D seismic reflection datasets of the study site, which is located on the western flank of the Anadarko basin, and compare our seismic interpretations with results from a tracer study. Petroleum system models are developed to understand the petroleum system and petroleum- and CO 2 -migration pathways. We find no evidence of seismically resolvable faults in Farnsworth Field, but interpret a karst structure, erosional structures, and incised valleys. These interpretations are compared with results of a Morrow B well-to-well tracer study that suggests that inter-well flow is up-dip or lateral. Southeastward fluid flow is inhibited by dip direction, thinning, and draping of the Morrow B reservoir over a deeper, eroded formation. Petroleum system models predict a deep basin-ward increase in temperature and maturation of the source rocks. In the northwestern Anadarko Basin, petroleum migration was generally up-dip with local exceptions; the Morrow B sandstone was likely charged by formations both below and overlying the reservoir rock. Based on this analysis, we conclude that CO 2 escape in Farnsworth Field via geologic pathways such as tectonic faults is unlikely. Abandoned or aged wellbores remain a risk for CO 2 escape from the reservoir formation and deserve further monitoring and research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fault Detection Utilizing Convolution Neural Network on Timeseries Synchrophasor Data From Phasor Measurement Units

An end-to-end supervised learning method is proposed for fault detection in the electric grid using Big Data from multiple Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). The approach consists of preprocessing steps aimed at reducing data noise and dimensionality, followed by utilization of six classification models considered for detecting faults. Three of the models were variants of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures that consider a single type of measurement (voltage, current or frequency) at all PMUs or all types together also at all PMUs. CNN based models were compared to traditional methods of Logistic Regression (LR), Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Evaluation was conducted on two-year data measured by PMUs at 37 locations in a large electric grid. Here, the response variable for classification were extracted from the grid-wide outage event log. Experiments show that CNN-based models outperformed traditional methods on one year out-of-sample outage detection over the entire grid.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2003

Glacier Ice Mass Fluctuations and Fault Instability in Tectonically Active Southern Alaska

Across southern Alaska the northwest directed subduction of the Pacific plate is accompanied by accretion of the Yakutat terrane to continental Alaska. This has led to high tectonic strain rates and dramatic topographic relief of more than 5000 meters within 15 km of the Gulf of Alaska coast. The glaciers of this area are extensive and include large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. The large glacier ice mass changes perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. We estimated surface displacements and stresses associated with ice mass fluctuations and tectonic loading by examining GPS geodetic observations and numerical model predictions. Although the glacial fluctuations perturb the tectonic stress field, especially at shallow depths, the largest contribution to ongoing crustal deformation is horizontal tectonic strain due to plate convergence. Tectonic forces are thus the primary force responsible for major earthquakes. However, for geodetic sites located < 10-20 km from major ice mass fluctuations, the changes of the solid Earth due to ice loading and unloading are an important aspect of interpreting geodetic results. The ice changes associated with Bering Glacier s most recent surge cycle are large enough to cause discernible surface displacements. Additionally, ice mass fluctuations associated with the surge cycle can modify the short-term seismicity rates in a local region. For the thrust faulting environment of the study region a large decrease in ice load may cause an increase in seismic rate in a region close to failure whereas ice loading may inhibit thrust faulting.

SauberRosenberg, Jeanne M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nominal and adversarial synthetic PMU data for standard IEEE test systems

GridSTAGE (Spatio-Temporal Adversarial scenario GEneration) is a framework for the simulation of adversarial scenarios and the generation of multivariate spatio-temporal data in cyber-physical systems. GridSTAGE is developed based on Matlab and leverages Power System Toolbox (PST) where the evolution of the power network is governed by nonlinear differential equations. Using GridSTAGE, one can create several event scenarios that correspond to several operating states of the power network by enabling or disabling any of the following: faults, AGC control, PSS control, exciter control, load changes, generation changes, and different types of cyber-attacks. Standard IEEE bus system data is used to define the power system environment. GridSTAGE emulates the data from PMU and SCADA sensors. The rate of frequency and location of the sensors can be adjusted as well. Detailed instructions on generating data scenarios with different system topologies, attack characteristics, load characteristics, sensor configuration, control parameters are available in the Github repository - https://github.com/pnnl/GridSTAGE. There is no existing adversarial data-generation framework that can incorporate several attack characteristics and yield adversarial PMU data. The GridSTAGE framework currently supports simulation of False Data Injection attacks (such as a ramp, step, random, trapezoidal, multiplicative, replay, freezing) and Denial of Service attacks (such as time-delay, packet-loss) on PMU data. Furthermore, it supports generating spatio-temporal time-series data corresponding to several random load changes across the network or corresponding to several generation changes. A Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify the false data attacks in real-time is proposed in https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9303022. Machine learning-based predictive models are developed to capture the dynamics of the underlying power system with a high level of accuracy under various operating conditions for IEEE 68 bus system. The corresponding machine learning models are available at https://github.com/pnnl/grid_prediction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Geologic Storage Reservoir Management to Support Risk Mitigation Evaluation

This report provides a detailed description of a set of numerical simulations that represent reservoir behavior over time in response to different operational decision scenarios for detection of potential leakage and reduction or avoidance of leakage impact at a hypothetical geological carbon storage (GCS) site. These simulations serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), and a demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for evaluation of mitigation strategies based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming. Four injection scenarios were considered: a constant rate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection case (base case), a case with CO 2 injection rate adjustment, a case with early termination of injection operations, and a case with brine extraction. CO 2 injection operations were controlled to ensure that the pressure transient remains below the defined manageable reservoir fracture pressure, with consideration shown to hypothetical locations within the modeled spatial domain where the overburden was weaker and lower transient pressure increases were allowable. Additionally, a brine extraction alternative was considered as a reservoir management and risk mitigation option to reduce reservoir pressure, steer the plume away from any hypothetical geohazard such as fault as needed, and enhance storage capacity. Such operational actions contribute to risk management overtime. This study explores the potential utility of reservoir management for risk reduction at GCS sites. This study shows that the injection design may modify the time to CO 2 breakthrough at a legacy well; in particular, these results show that brine extraction can add value for mitigating risk both by delaying leakage and reducing pressure build-up. For the scenario considered, both pressure plots and pressure distributions demonstrate that pressure build-up was decreased by 3% with brine extraction. Additionally, extraction of brine afforded enhancement of CO 2 storage capacity by 5% compared to the base case. These findings suggest that brine extraction has substantial potential to steer the risk-related reservoir effects away from known geohazards (e.g., faults and legacy wells) by conducting pressure transient effects and CO 2 plume movement toward the production well. Injection rate adjustment scenarios considered in this study show potential value for managing both reservoir pressure transients and CO 2 plume behavior. Operational actions for reducing injection and/or early termination of injection (as compared to the base case), however, require careful design; tailoring both the extent and timing of injection rate adjustment over the injection and post-injection operational period must be thoroughly planned to balance maximizing storage and minimizing subsurface environmental risk. The study also gives preliminary consideration to the effectiveness that monitoring strategy may play in providing useful information to inform reservoir management decisions for risk reduction. Two types of monitoring were considered: 1) pressure build-up or pressure transient; and 2) potential leakage detection from a CO 2 mass or plume. Four hypothetical legacy wells, two plugged and two abandoned, were placed in the model domain. Monitoring along these wells was measured over time in individual stacked reservoir formations and shale formations to support risk mitigation decisions, especially operational decisions that assisted in risk reduction. These simulations will serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using NRAP’s Open-IAM, and demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for comparative assessment of mitigation alternatives based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Different Operation Conditions and Geological Formation Characteristics on CO2 Sequestration in Citronelle Dome, Alabama

Major concerns of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in subsurface formations are knowledge of the well injectivity and gas storage capacity of the formation, the CO2 pressure and saturation plume extensions during and after injection, and the risks associated with CO2 leakage and fault reactivation. Saline reservoirs are considered as one of the target formations for CO2 sequestration through structural, residual, dissolution, and mineral trapping mechanisms. The boundary condition of the saline reservoir dictates the pressure and saturation plume extension of the injected supercritical CO2 that could expand over large distances. This can lead to sources of risk, e.g., leakage and/or fault reactivation due to presence of wells, thief zones, and geological discontinuities. Therefore, there is a critical need to develop a model that describes how risk-related performance metrics (i.e., the CO2 saturation plume size, the pressure differential plume area, and the pressure differential at specific locations) vary as a function of the size of injection, time following injection, injection operations, and geologic environment. In this study, a systematic reservoir modeling studies of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration in Citronelle dome, Alabama, was performed where all relevant scenarios and conditions to address the questions of the saturation and pressure plume size in the area of review (AoR) and post-injection site care (PISC) are considered. The objective for this study was firstly to systematically simulate CO2 sequestration, i.e., saturation dynamics, and pressure behavior over a range of operational and geological conditions and to derive conclusions about the factors influencing saturation and pressure plume size, post-injection behavior, and the risk associated with them, by developing third-generation reduced order models (ROMs) for reservoir behavior. Finally, to assess the uncertainty associated with our studies, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) together with an experimental design technique, i.e., Plackett–Burman design, was used. Application of Pareto charts and respond surfaces enabled us to determine the most important parameters impacting saturation and pressure plume sizes and to quantify the auto- and cross-correlation among different parameters in both history-matched and upscaled models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Approaches to Predicting Induced Seismicity and Imaging Geothermal Reservoir Properties

This project developed machine learning (ML) methods, lab data sets, and field data to advance geothermal exploration and geothermal energy production. The work had three focus areas. One involved the development of ML methods to use microearthquakes (MEQs) for imaging geothermal reservoir properties and improving subsurface characterization – most importantly the evolution of permeability within the evolving reservoir. This part of the work included development of ML approaches for automated MEQ location, focal mechanism determination and identification of earthquake precursors. The second area focused on using MEQ signals generated by geothermal exploration and production to predict the relationship between fluid injection and seismicity. Here, we extended to reservoir scale our success in using ML to predict laboratory earthquakes and fault zone stress state. The third focus area was on lab experiments. Here, we developed new ML models for lab earthquake prediction and identification of precursors to failure to improve earthquake forecasting and early warning in geothermal settings. Major outcomes of our work include ML models that learn from MEQ signals during geothermal exploration and production to predict induced seismicity. MEQs occur naturally in connection with drilling and energy production. We developed ML methods to use the seismic waves from these events to characterize the elastic, hydraulic and poromechanical properties of reservoirs. Our work illuminated fracture geometry and the evolution of fracture permeability by incorporating seismic coda wave analysis and ML methods to relate fluid injection and seismicity. We significantly expanded laboratory earthquake prediction to include methods that use both passive measurements of microearthquakes within the lab fault zones and also active source acoustic measurements of fault zone elastic properties. These methods can now predict fault zone stress state, time to failure and the magnitude of lab earthquakes. Our work showed that repetitive stick- slip failure events during frictional sliding (the lab equivalent of earthquakes) are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate energy in a manner that foretells unstable failure – manifest as laboratory MEQs. We documented a mapping between fracture properties and statistical attributes of elastic radiation. We extended existing works to geothermal reservoir scale and developed ML methods to determine reservoir permeability, fracture properties, and their evolution during geothermal energy production. An attractive feature of ML algorithms is their ability to handle big datasets and reveal patterns and correlations that may remain invisible to conventional analyses. Our work connected data from field, laboratory and intermediate scales to study permeability, stress, strength, fracture stiffness and geometry. At the field scale we used data from the Newberry Volcano field site, UtahFORGE, EGS Collab, and also the Bedretto underground research lab in Switzerland. These data sets are bridging the gap between the lab scale, theory, and reservoir scale. Our work produced plain language summaries to improve public understanding of DOE research. We also developed openly distributed ML and seismicity datasets for use by all researchers and we published connections between induced seismicity in geothermal areas and reservoir properties including permeability, fracture properties, and stress state. Our models are designed for the large data sets of induced seismicity typically associated with geothermal sites. We produced labeled event catalogs and used them on geothermal data to assess how ML can facilitate geothermal production and exploration. All datasets are available on the GDR Productivity: The project produced 32 publications in peer reviewed journals (two are in review). It supported the work of 6 PhD students, 40 conference presentations, 6 keynote talks at national meetings, and mentoring and professional development for 4 postdoctoral fellows.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precision Tomography of a Three-Qubit Donor Quantum Processor in Silicon

Nuclear spins were among the first physical platforms to be considered for quantum information processing, because of their exceptional quantum coherence and atomic-scale footprint. However, their full potential for quantum computing has not yet been realized, owing to the lack of methods with which to link nuclear qubits within a scalable device combined with multi-qubit operations with sufficient fidelity to sustain fault-tolerant quantum computation. Here we demonstrate universal quantum logic operations using a pair of ion-implanted 31 P donor nuclei in a silicon nanoelectronic device. A nuclear two-qubit controlled-Z gate is obtained by imparting a geometric phase to a shared electron spin, and used to prepare entangled Bell states with fidelities up to 94.2(2.7)%. The quantum operations are precisely characterized using gate set tomography (GST), yielding one-qubit average gate fidelities up to 99.95(2)%, two-qubit average gate fidelity of 99.37(11)% and two-qubit preparation/measurement fidelities of 98.95(4)%. These three metrics indicate that nuclear spins in silicon are approaching the performance demanded in fault-tolerant quantum processors. We then demonstrate entanglement between the two nuclei and the shared electron by producing a Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger three-qubit state with 92.5(1.0)% fidelity. Because electron spin qubits in semiconductors can be further coupled to other electrons or physically shuttled across different locations, these results establish a viable route for scalable quantum information processing using donor nuclear and electron spins.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗