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DOE OSTI2024

Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model

A primary advantage to using reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) has been their ability to quickly conduct probabilistic climate projections, a key component of uncertainty quantification in many impact studies and multisector systems. Providing frameworks for such analyses has been a target of several RCMs used in studies of the future co-evolution of the human and Earth systems. In this paper, we present Matilda, an open-science R software package that facilitates probabilistic climate projection analysis, implemented here using the Hector simple climate model in a seamless and easily applied framework. The primary goal of Matilda is to provide the user with a turn-key method to build parameter sets from literature-based prior distributions, run Hector iteratively to produce perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), weight ensembles for realism against observed historical climate data, and compute probabilistic projections for different climate variables. This workflow gives the user the ability to explore viable parameter space and propagate uncertainty to model ensembles with just a few lines of code. The package provides significant freedom to select different scoring criteria and algorithms to weight ensemble members, as well as the flexibility to implement custom criteria. Additionally, the architecture of the package simplifies the process of building and analyzing PPEs without requiring significant programming expertise, to accommodate diverse use cases. We present a case study that provides illustrative results of a probabilistic analysis of mean global surface temperature as an example of the software application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A comprehensive guide to CAN IDS data and introduction of the ROAD dataset

Although ubiquitous in modern vehicles, Controller Area Networks (CANs) lack basic security properties and are easily exploitable. A rapidly growing field of CAN security research has emerged that seeks to detect intrusions or anomalies on CANs. Producing vehicular CAN data with a variety of intrusions is a difficult task for most researchers as it requires expensive assets and deep expertise. To illuminate this task, we introduce the first comprehensive guide to the existing open CAN intrusion detection system (IDS) datasets. We categorize attacks on CANs including fabrication (adding frames, e.g., flooding or targeting and ID), suspension (removing an ID’s frames), and masquerade attacks (spoofed frames sent in lieu of suspended ones). We provide a quality analysis of each dataset; an enumeration of each datasets’ attacks, benefits, and drawbacks; categorization as real vs. simulated CAN data and real vs. simulated attacks; whether the data is raw CAN data or signal-translated; number of vehicles/CANs; quantity in terms of time; and finally a suggested use case of each dataset. State-of-the-art public CAN IDS datasets are limited to real fabrication (simple message injection) attacks and simulated attacks often in synthetic data, lacking fidelity. In general, the physical effects of attacks on the vehicle are not verified in the available datasets. Only one dataset provides signal-translated data but is missing a corresponding “raw” binary version. This issue pigeon-holes CAN IDS research into testing on limited and often inappropriate data (usually with attacks that are too easily detectable to truly test the method). The scarcity of appropriate data has stymied comparability and reproducibility of results for researchers. As our primary contribution, we present the Real ORNL Automotive Dynamometer (ROAD) CAN IDS dataset, consisting of over 3.5 hours of one vehicle’s CAN data. ROAD contains ambient data recorded during a diverse set of activities, and attacks of increasing stealth with multiple variants and instances of real (i.e. non-simulated) fuzzing, fabrication, unique advanced attacks, and simulated masquerade attacks. To facilitate a benchmark for CAN IDS methods that require signal-translated inputs, we also provide the signal time series format for many of the CAN captures. Our contributions aim to facilitate appropriate benchmarking and needed comparability in the CAN IDS research field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Status and prospects of discovery of 0νββ decay with the CUORE detector

In this contribution we present the achievements of the CUORE experiment so far. It is the first tonne-scale bolometric detector and it is in stable data taking since 2018. We reached to collect about 1800 kg×yr of exposure of which more than 1 ton×year have been analysed. The CUORE detector is meant to search for the neutrinoless double β decay (0νββ) of the 130 Te isotope. This is a beyond Standard Model process which could establish the nature of the neutrino to be Dirac or a Majorana particle. It is an alternative mode of the two-neutrinos double β decay, a rare decay which have been precisely measured by CUORE in the 130 Te. We found no evidence of the 0νββ and we set a Bayesian lower limit of 2.2 ×10 25 yr on its half-life. The expertise achieved by CUORE set a milestone for any future bolometric detector, including CUPID, which is the planned next generation experiment searching for 0νββ with scintillating bolometers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy Material Network Data Hubs

In early 2015 the United States Department of Energy conceived of a consortium of collaborative bodies based on shared expertise, data, and resources that could be targeted towards the more difficult problems in energy materials research. The concept of virtual laboratories had been envisioned and discussed earlier in the decade in response to the advent of the Materials Genome Initiative and similar scientific thrusts. To be effective, any virtual laboratory needed a robust method for data management, communication, security, data sharing, dissemination, and demonstration to work efficiently and effectively for groups of remote researchers. With the accessibility of new, easily deployed cloud technology and software frameworks, such individual elements could be integrated, and the required collaboration architecture is now possible. The developers have leveraged open-source software frameworks, customized them, and merged them into a platform to enable collaborative energy materials science, regardless of the geographic dispersal of the people and resources. After five years in operations, the systems are demonstratively an effective platform for enabling research within the Energy Material Networks (EMN). This paper will show the design and development of a secured scientific data sharing platform, the ability to customize the system to support diverse workflows, and examples of the enabled research and results connected with some of the Energy Material Networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

COVID-19 through Adverse Outcome Pathways: Building networks to better understand the disease – 3rd CIAO AOP Design Workshop

On April 28-29, 2021, 50 scientists from different fields of expertise met for the 3rd online CIAO workshop. The CIAO project “Modelling the Pathogenesis of COVID-19 using the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework” aims at building a holistic assembly of the available scientific knowledge on COVID-19 using the AOP framework. An individual AOP depicts the disease progression from the initial contact with the SARS-CoV-2 virus through biological key events (KE) toward an adverse outcome such as respiratory distress, anosmia or multiorgan failure. Assembling the individual AOPs into a network highlights shared KEs as central biological nodes involved in multiple outcomes observed in COVID-19 patients. During the workshop, the KEs and AOPs established so far by the CIAO members were presented and positioned on a timeline of the disease course. Modulating factors influencing the progression and severity of the disease were also addressed as well as factors beyond purely biological phenomena. CIAO relies on an interdisciplinary crowdsourcing effort, therefore, approaches to expand the CIAO network by widening the crowd and reaching stakeholders were also discussed. To conclude the workshop, it was decided that the AOPs/KEs will be further consolidated, integrating virus variants and long COVID when relevant, while an outreach campaign will be launched to broaden the CIAO scientific crowd.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polar primary aerosols across the ocean-sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface: From sources to impacts

Primary aerosols play a critical role in polar climate systems, influencing cloud formation, precipitation, radiative balance, and surface energy budgets. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of primary aerosol sources, transformation and removal processes, and broader atmospheric impacts in polar regions, emphasizing their links to ocean and sea ice biogeochemistry. These aerosols (including sea salt, primary organic aerosol, and primary biological aerosol particles) originate from marine and cryospheric environments and are emitted through physical processes, such as wave breaking, bubble bursting, and blowing snow. Emission sources include seawater, sea ice, snow, and freshwater from river discharge and glacial runoff. Once airborne, these particles can serve as a chemical reservoir, influencing atmospheric composition and reactivity, and as seeds for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, influencing cloud microphysics and polar climate. Despite their importance, many of the processes governing primary aerosol emissions and transformations remain poorly constrained. The most pressing knowledge gaps pertain to emission processes, limited spatiotemporal observational coverage, instrumentation constraints, parameterization development, and the integration of interdisciplinary expertise. To improve our understanding of primary aerosol drivers and their response to climate, future research efforts should prioritize strategically coordinated and cross-disciplinary process studies, advancements in measurement technologies and coverage, and close collaboration between modelers and observational scientists to inform and refine model parameterizations. As polar regions continue to undergo profound changes marked by increased precipitation, reduced sea and land ice, freshening oceans, and shifting ecosystem dynamics, characterizing present-day primary aerosol populations is vital. Improved understanding will be essential for anticipating future changes in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions and their implications for polar and global climate systems.

Aerosol-cloud↗

DOE OSTI2021

TEAMER - AquaHarmonics High Fidelity WEC Sim PTO and Control Model Validation, Sim Model

Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. Project is part of the TEAMER (Testing & Expertise for Marine Energy) RFTS (request for technical support) system of WEC research projects. Testing data can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER: Results of Investigating Structural Design Concepts and Alternative Materials for a Wave Power System

Included here are materials from a study on the design of a three-body Wave Energy Converter (WEC) utilizing a heave plate, dual Power Take Offs (PTOs), and single point mooring. A material trade study has been conducted to evaluate the effects of introducing various metallic and fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) elements to the design. The baseline design is C-Power's patented k2 Wave Power System (WPS). This Testing Expertise and Access for Marine Energy Research (TEAMER) Request for Technical Support (RFTS) 9 effort resulted in alternative designs of the WPS center member, the nacelle. The analysis resulting from this study will inform the design of a lightweight structure with lower manufacturing and operating costs that increases energy conversion and power-to-weight ratio of the device. The dataset contains several components: finite element analysis (FEA) data, hand calculations, and CAD models. FEA files includes those used for and generated by finite element simulations. Calculations include hand calculations performed using Microsoft Excel, which assess core laminate properties, buckling, and other structural aspects in accordance with risk management DNV-RP-C201 standards. CAD materials include Solidworks files for parts, assemblies, and drawings of the evaluated models.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensor-based phenology from snowmelt experiment gradient, East River, Colorado, 2017 to 2020

The timing of snowmelt is a critical cue for the initiation of growth in mountain meadow ecosystems and can also impact the duration and magnitude of plant production. High frequency observations of species-level phenology are time consuming and require a high degree of expertise, and publicly available remote sensing products lack the necessary temporal resolution to assess fine-scale growing season dynamics. Near-surface sensing methods provide a middle ground with high temporal frequency and tractable spatial scales (from sub-meter to hillslope scale). This data package includes csv files of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) timeseries (SM_NDVI_dailymax.csv) and phenological thresholds (SM_NDVI_summary.csv) for sub-plots (1m2) and Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) phenological thresholds (SM_GCC_summary.csv) at the plot scale (10m x 14m). Location IDs associated with this data package are: ER-LM, WG-UM, WG-LS, ER-US, and XX-AL. Related data packages include: “Microclimate observations associated with snowmelt experiment gradient sites, East River, Colorado, 2017 to 2020” and “Colorado Elevation Gradient Snowmelt Manipulation Plant Phenology 2017-2018”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advances and opportunities in materials science for scalable quantum computing

We report that by harnessing unique quantum mechanical phenomena, such as superposition and entanglement, quantum computers offer the possibility to drastically outperform classical computers for certain classes of problems. The realization of this potential, however, presents a substantial challenge, because noise and imperfections associated with the materials used to fabricate devices can obscure the delicate quantum mechanical effects that enable quantum computing. Hence, progress in synthesis, characterization, and modeling of materials for quantum computing have driven many exciting advances in recent years and will become increasingly important in the years to come. As progressively more complex, multi-qubit systems come online, and as significant government and industrial investment drives research forward, new challenges and opportunities for materials science continue to emerge. The articles in this issue survey the current state of materials science progress and obstacles for some leading quantum computing platforms; opportunities for deeper involvement by materials scientists abound. Ultimate realization of the full potential of quantum computers will require a multidisciplinary effort spanning many traditional areas of expertise.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical nuances of Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

Abstract The fields of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed almost every aspect of science and engineering. The excitement for AI/ML methods is in large part due to their perceived novelty, as compared to traditional methods of statistics, computation, and applied mathematics. But clearly, all methods in ML have their foundations in mathematical theories, such as function approximation, uncertainty quantification, and function optimization. Autonomous experimentation is no exception; it is often formulated as a chain of off-the-shelf tools, organized in a closed loop, without emphasis on the intricacies of each algorithm involved. The uncomfortable truth is that the success of any ML endeavor, and this includes autonomous experimentation, strongly depends on the sophistication of the underlying mathematical methods and software that have to allow for enough flexibility to consider functions that are in agreement with particular physical theories. We have observed that standard off-the-shelf tools, used by many in the applied ML community, often hide the underlying complexities and therefore perform poorly. In this paper, we want to give a perspective on the intricate connections between mathematics and ML, with a focus on Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation. Although the Gaussian process is a powerful mathematical concept, it has to be implemented and customized correctly for optimal performance. We present several simple toy problems to explore these nuances and highlight the importance of mathematical and statistical rigor in autonomous experimentation and ML. One key takeaway is that ML is not, as many had hoped, a set of agnostic plug-and-play solvers for everyday scientific problems, but instead needs expertise and mastery to be applied successfully. Graphical abstract

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Are We on Track for 2050? A Materials Research & Sustainability Perspective

In commemoration of the Materials Research Society (MRS)'s 50th anniversary, the 2050 panel hosted a discussion to reflect on the past, present, and future of sustainability and the role of materials research and development. Three panelists discussed their views, based on their expertise, about future challenges and lessons from the past. Sustainable development is a broad topic; therefore, the discussion centered on their experience as material researchers and their efforts for a better and greener future. This work is developed in collaboration with the co-authors team, highlighting the need for accelerating research and development efforts, especially in materials science and applications, fostering interdisciplinary partnerships, and mobilizing collective action to address the complex and interconnected sustainability challenges that humanity is currently facing.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,ENVIRONMENTAL↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Based Identification of the Interface Regions for Coupling Local and Nonlocal Models

Local-nonlocal coupling approaches provide a means to combine the computational efficiency of local models and the accuracy of nonlocal models. However, the coupling process can be challenging, requiring expertise to identify the interface between local and nonlocal regions. Here, this study introduces a machine learning-based approach to automatically detect the regions in which the local and nonlocal models should be used. The method uses loading functions evaluated at grid points to decide the model selection at those points. Training of the networks is based on datasets provided by classes of loading functions for which reference coupling configurations are computed using accurate coupled solutions, where accuracy is measured in terms of the relative error between the solution to the coupling approach and the solution to the nonlocal model. We study two approaches that vary in data structure. The first, the full-domain input data approach, uses the entire load vector and outputs a complete label vector, performing a global classification. The second, a window-based approach, processes loads into windows and addresses the problem as a node-wise classification where each window's central point is classified individually. The classification problems are solved via deep learning algorithms based on convolutional neural networks. The performance of these approaches is studied on one-dimensional numerical examples using F1-scores and accuracy metrics. Notably, the windowing approach achieves an accuracy of 0.96 and an F1-score of 0.97, highlighting its potential to automate coupling processes effectively and enhance computational efficiency in material science applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Core Analysis E-Reports Produced for the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration for Wells 13-10A, 13-14, and 32-8 of the Farnsworth Unit, Texas

The submission is three electronic reports (e-reports) produced by Terra Tek, a former Schlumberger company, for and under the oversight of the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP). The SWP designed and implemented a coring and core analysis program in conjunction with the previous field operator Chaparral Energy, L.L.C. The main SWP contacts who oversaw the coring and core analysis program, including geologic core descriptions and sample selection for testing by the Terra Tek, are listed below in the Authors section. The three reports are for Wells 13-10A, 13-14, and 32-8 of the Farnsworth Unit, TX, a site of the SWP's CO2 storage and enhanced oil recovery project. The e-reports include many data types that are not listed in full detail here, but may include: geomechanical, geochemical, and petrophysical measurements; white light and UV core photos; spectral gamma logs on the core; and Heterogeneous Rock Analysis logs. Fracture core review reports are included for Wells 13-14 and 32-8. The three e-reports each have many subfolders with the various types of data in spreadsheets, pdfs, image files, or other formats. The main e-reports for each well are listed by the well name. The sub-folder “E-Report” for each well has a Report.html file, which, when opened, will have hyperlinks to the various data sets and information. The files in the zipped folder will need to be extracted for the Report.html files to work properly. These authors thank Joseph Hall, a geologist formerly of Chaparral Energy, L.L.C., for assistance in designing the coring program, his geologic expertise of the Farnsworth Unit, and his assistance with characterizing the core. Christopher Gillespie, of Terra Tek at the time, managed the myriad geomechanical, geochemical, and petrophysical measurements provided by Terra Tek for this project. The core from which the samples were collected for this project are housed at the Subsurface Data and Core Libraries of the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, Socorro, New Mexico, USA. Funding for this project is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) through the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) under Award No. DE-FC26-05NT42591. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. These e-reports describe objective technical results and analysis. Any subjective views or opinions that might be expressed in the reports do not necessarily represent the views of the US Department of Energy or the United States Government.

Caprock↗

DOE OSTI2020

Initial Implementation Of Machine Learning System for SRF Cavity Fault Classification at CEBAF

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory is high power CW electron accelerator. It uses a mixture of two types of SRF modules, older, lower energy C20/C50 modules and newer higher energy C100 modules, arrayed in two anti-parallel linear accelerators. Accurately classifying the type of cavity faults is essential to maintaining and improving accelerator performance. Each C100 cryomodule contains eight 7-cell cavities. When a cavity fault occurs within a cryomodule, all eight cavities generate 17 waveforms each containing 8192 points. This data is exported from EPICS and saved for review. Analysis of these waveforms is time intensive and requires subject matter expertise (SME). SMEs examine the data from each event and label it according to one of several known cavity fault types. Multiple machine learning models have been developed on this labeled dataset with sufficient performance to warrant the creation of a limited machine learning software system for use by accelerator operations staff. This paper discusses the transition from model development to implementation of a prototype system.

Carpenter, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

EPICS Deployment at Fermilab

Fermilab has traditionally not been an EPICS house, as such expertise in EPICS is limited and scattered. However, PIP-II will be using EPICS for its control system. Furthermore, when PIP-II is operating, it must to interface with the existing, though modernized (see ACORN) legacy control system. We have developed and deployed a software pipeline that addresses these needs and presents to developers a tested and robust software framework, including template IOCs from which new developers can quickly gain experience. In this presentation, we will discuss the motivation for this work, the implementation of a continuous integration/continuous deployment pipeline, testing, template IOCs, and the deployment of user applications. We will also discuss how this is used with the current PIP-II teststand and lessons learned.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Xopt and Badger: a machine learning ecosystem for real-time accelerator control and optimization

Machine learning (ML)-based black-box optimization algorithms have demonstrated significant improvements in accelerator optimization speed, often by orders of magnitude. However, deploying these algorithms in real-time facility control remains challenging due to the specialized expertise and infrastructure required. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Xopt ecosystem, a versatile suite of tools designed to make advanced ML-based optimization accessible to the broader accelerator community. This ecosystem includes Xopt, a modular Python framework that facilitates the integration of ML-based optimization algorithms with arbitrary control problems, and Badger, a graphical user interface built on top of Xopt, which enables seamless deployment of ML algorithms in real-time control systems. The Xopt ecosystem has been successfully applied towards solving challenging real-time control problems at leading international accelerator facilities, including SLAC, LBNL, Argonne, Fermilab, BNL, DESY, and ESRF, demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world optimization tasks. In this presentation, we provide an overview of Xopt’s capabilities and illustrate its impact through case studies from SLAC accelerator facilities including LCLS, LCLS-II, and FACET-II.

Roussel, Ryan [SLAC]↗