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At least 505 records · Page 28

GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Gravity Observations of Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes Contrasted with Those of Shallow Events

Earthquakes involve mass redistribution within the solid Earth and the ocean, and as a result, perturb the Earth's gravitational field. For most of the shallow (<60 km) earthquakes with Mw > 8.0, the GRACE satellite gravity measurements suggest considerable volumetric disturbance of rocks. At a spatial scale of hundreds of km, the effect of volumetric change exceeds gravity change by vertical deformation; for example, negative gravity anomalies associated with volumetric expansion are characteristic patterns after shallow thrust events. In this study, however, we report contrasting observations of gravity change from two intermediate-depth (100–150 km) earthquakes of 2016 & 2017 Mw 8.0 (two combined) Papua New Guinea thrust faulting events and 2019 Mw 8.0 Peru normal faulting and highlight the importance of compressibility in earthquake deformation. The combined 2016/17 thrust events resulted in a positive gravity anomaly of 5–6 microGal around the epicenter, while the 2019 normal faulting produced a negative gravity anomaly of 3–4 microGal. Our modeling found that these gravity changes are manifestation of vertical deformation with limited volumetric change, distinct from gravity changes after the shallow earthquakes. The stronger resistance of rocks to volume change at intermediate-depth results in largely incompressible deformation and thus in a gravity change dominated by vertical deformation. In addition, malleable rocks under high pressure and temperature at depth facilitated substantial afterslip and/or fast viscoelastic relaxation causing additional vertical deformation and gravity change equivalent to the coseismic change. For the Papua New Guinea events, this means that postseismic relaxation enhanced coseismic uplift and relative sea level decrease.

Shin-Chan Han↗

Sampling Rare Events in Aqueous Systems Using Molecular Simulations

Birth of a new distinct phase is a phenomenon encountered in a myriad of processes, and has wide ranging consequences in material processing, biological self-assembly, separations and several other processes. Several phase transitions are nucleation driven. The nucleation events occur over nanosecond timescales and involve hundreds to thousands of molecules. These length and timescales are difficult to access in experiments, thereby making experimental studies of nucleation challenging. On the other hand, molecular simulations sample the nanosecond and nanometer scales making them ideal to study nucleation. However, nucleation is a rare event, meaning that the waiting time to observe one nucleation event is significant. This makes simulation studies of rare events challenging. The project focused on a multi-pronged approach to address such challenges to develop the next generation rare event sampling methods for molecular simulations. The key outcomes of our work include developing more effective methods for sampling rare events, utilizing machine learning to better elucidate nucleation mechanisms, development of software for easy implementation of the methodologies, and applications of the methods to realistic systems to push the method applicability beyond model systems. Overall, this work has enabled pushing the frontiers of molecular simulations to study rare events with a focus on nucleation in aqueous solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Satellite observations of zonal electric fields near sunrise in the equatorial ionosphere

We report here on a number of examples of anomalous enhancements of eastward electric fields near sunrise in the equatorial ionospheric F-region. These examples were selected from the data base of the equatorial satellite, San Marco D (1988), which measured ionospheric electric fields during a period of solar minimum. The eastward electric fields reported correspond to vertical plasma drifts. The examples studied here are similar in signature and polarity to the pre-reversal electric field enhancements seen near sunset from ground-based radar systems. The morphology of these sunrise events, which are observed on about 14% of the morning-side satellite passes, are studied as a function of local zonal velocity, magnetic activity, geographic longitude and altitude. The nine events studied occur at locations where the zonal plasma flow is generally measured to be eastward, but reducing as a function of local time and at satellite longitudes where the magnetic declination has the opposite polarity as the declination of the sunrise terminator.

Aggson, T. L.↗

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consortium breccia 73255 - Laser /Ar-39/-/Ar-40/ dating of aphanite samples

Laser (Ar-39)-(Ar-40) studies of clasts and groundmass in breccia 73255 are presented. They show a variety of ages indicating that some materials lost argon from sites that outgas at low temperature, while other materials have retained argon generated before the breccia-forming event. The estimate for the time of the breccia-forming event from thermal release studies is compared to the upper limit of the event from the laser studies; this work also shows that ages in excess of 4.0 G.y. determined on rocks containing devitrified maskelynite clasts probably have no chronological significance.

Eichhorn, G.↗

The NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program: Making EO Data and Expertise Available through the Disasters Mapping Portal to Inform Decision-Makers throughout the Disaster Cycle

The NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program promotes the use of Earth Observations (EO) to inform disaster risk reduction and resilience throughout the disaster cycle, from local to global scales, by harnessing NASA science and technology capabilities, through engagement with end users to demonstrate the value and impact of EO to support decision-making, and by supporting end users in their use of EO in decision-making while developing relationships to grow as a trusted source of relevant science and useful results. Through the NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program Mapping Portal, an Esri-backed hub of geospatially enabled disaster products, event-based and near-real-time products are hosted to provide end users with analysis-ready data and data services, keeping in mind their expressed EO needs. In this presentation, case studies of past events will be highlighted, showcasing how EO data and services were provided by the Program and utilized by end users during the disaster cycle. Additionally, this presentation will highlight some of the Program’s ongoing collaboration activities to assist end users in understanding and preparing for utilization of EO data from the Mapping Portal to inform their decision-making throughout the disaster cycle. Ongoing efforts to advance the science provided by the Program on the Mapping Portal through new developments and capabilities will be highlighted, and common challenges and data needs end users often encounter when using EO data and our Program’s innovative solutions to these challenges will be addressed. Furthermore, this presentation will touch on the challenges faced and the solutions created by the Mapping Portal team in managing and hosting a plethora of EO data for end users across various disciplines.

Ronan Lucey↗

The correlation of coronal mass ejections with energetic flare proton events

Proton events of energies of at least 4 MeV presumed due to solar flares are compared with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed with an orbiting coronagraph. H alpha flares are associated with 27 of the 50 flare proton events of the study. Each of these 27 flares is then associated temporally and spatially with a CME, confirming the earlier conclusion, based on Skylab data, that a CME may be a necessary condition for a flare proton event. Peak 4-22 MeV proton fluxes correlate with both the speeds and the angular sizes of the associated CMEs. CMEs of larger angular sizes are more likely to be loops or fans rather than jets or spikes and are more likely to intersect the ecliptic.

Kahler, S. W.↗

Periodic Comet Showers, Mass Extinctions, and the Galaxy

Geologic data on mass extinctions of life and evidence of large impacts on the Earth are thus far consistent with a quasi-periodic modulation of the flux of Oort cloud comets. Impacts of large comets and asteroids are capable of causing mass extinction of species, and the records of large impact craters and mass show a correlation. Impacts and extinctions display periods in the range of approximately 31 +/- 5 m.y., depending on dating methods, published time scales, length of record, and number of events analyzed. Statistical studies show that observed differences in the formal periodicity of extinctions and craters are to be expected, taking into consideration problems in dating and the likelihood that both records would be mixtures of periodic and random events. These results could be explained by quasi-periodic showers of Oort Cloud comets with a similar cycle. The best candidate for a pacemaker for comet showers is the Sun's vertical oscillation through the plane of the Galaxy, with a half-period over the last 250 million years in the same range. We originally suggested that the probability of encounters with molecular clouds that could perturb the Oort comet cloud and cause comet showers is modulated by the Sun's vertical motion through the galactic disk. Tidal forces produced by the overall gravitational field of the Galaxy can also cause perturbations of cometary orbits. Since these forces vary with the changing position of the solar system in the Galaxy, they provide a mechanism for the periodic variation in the flux of Oort cloud comets into the inner solar system. The cycle time and degree of modulation depend critically on the mass distribution in the galactic disk. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Rampino, M. R.↗

Lunar Surface Electric Potential Changes Associated with Traversals through the Earth's Foreshock

We report an analysis of one year of Suprathermal Ion Detector Experiment (SIDE) Total Ion Detector (TID) resonance events observed between January 1972 and January 1973. The study includes only those events during which upstream solar wind conditions were readily available. The analysis shows that these events are associated with lunar traversals through the dawn flank of the terrestrial magnetospheric bow shock. We propose that the events result from an increase in lunar surface electric potential effected by secondary electron emission due to primary electrons in the Earth's foreshock region (although primary ions may play a role as well). This work establishes (1) the lunar surface potential changes as the Moon moves through the terrestrial bow shock, (2) the lunar surface achieves potentials in the upstream foreshock region that differ from those in the downstream magnetosheath region, (3) these differences can be explained by the presence of energetic electron beams in the upstream foreshock region and (4) if this explanation is correct, the location of the Moon with respect to the terrestrial bow shock influences lunar surface potential.

Collier, Michael R.↗

Evaluation of the Minifilament-Eruption Scenario for Solar Coronal Jets in Polar Coronal Holes

Solar coronal jets are suspected to result from magnetic reconnection low in the Sun's atmosphere. Sterling et al. (2015) looked as 20 jets in polar coronal holes, using X-ray images from the Hinode/X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). They suggested that each jet was driven by the eruption of twisted closed magnetic field carrying a small-scale filament, which they call a 'minifilament', and that the jet was produced by reconnection of the erupting field with surrounding open field. In this study, we carry out a more extensive examination of polar coronal jets. From 180 hours of XRT polar coronal hole observations spread over two years (2014-2016), we identified 130 clearly-identifiable X-ray jet events and thus determined an event rate of over 17 jets per day per in the Hinode/XRT field of view. From the broader set, we selected 25 of the largest and brightest events for further study in AIA 171, 193, 211, and 304 Angstrom images. We find that at least the majority of the jets follow the minifilament-eruption scenario, although for some cases the evolution of the minifilament in the onset of its eruption is more complex than presented in the simplified schematic of Sterling et al. (2015). For all cases in which we could make a clear determination, the spire of the X-ray jet drifted laterally away from the jet-base-edge bright point; this spire drift away from the bright point is consistent with expectations of the minifilament-eruption scenario for coronal-jet production. This work was supported with funding from the NASA/MSFC Hinode Project Office, and from the NASA HGI program.

holes↗

High-Performance Computing Based EMT Simulation: Power Grid with IBRs

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of power grids with high-fidelity models of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is time-consuming and difficult to scale. The necessity for high-fidelity models of IBRs that incorporate the dynamics of individual inverters within IBRs has been showcased in recent studies. These studies focused on events with partial power reduction in each IBR during a transmission line fault in the power grid. These types of events have been documented in multiple North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) reports in the past decade. It is imperative then to find solutions to speed-up EMT simulations and scale the size of the region with IBRs studied in EMT simulations. In this paper, a combination of numerical simulation algorithms with high-performance computing techniques are employed in discretization and linear solvers employed in the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform for power grid with IBRs. For ease of scalability, modular and object-oriented programming is used as these techniques are implemented. Additionally, automation software is developed to convert legacy software codes to the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform. Thereafter, this platform is evaluated on multi-core central processing units (CPUs). Finally, scale-up tests are performed to showcase the scalability that is possible.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗

Single event upset sensitivity of low power Schottky devices

Data taken from tests involving heavy ions in the Berkeley 88 in. cyclotron being directed at low power Schottky barrier devices are reported. The tests also included trials in the Harvard cyclotron with 130 MeV protons, and at the U.C. Davis cyclotron using 56 MeV protons. The experiments were performed to study the single event upsets in MSI logic devices containing flip-flops. Results are presented of single-event upsets (SEU) causing functional degradation observed in post-exposure tests of six different devices. The effectiveness of the particles in producing SEUs in logic device functioning was found to be directly proportional to the proton energy. Shielding was determined to offer negligible protection from the particle bombardment. The results are considered significant for the design and fabrication of LS devices for space applications.

Price, W. E.↗

Global Driving of Auroral Precipitation: 1. Balance of Sources

The accurate determination of auroral precipitation in global models has remained a daunting and rather inexplicable obstacle. Understanding the calculation and balance of multiple sources that constitute the aurora, and their eventual conversion into ionospheric electrical conductance, is critical for improved prediction of space weather events. In this study, we present a semi-physical global modeling approach that characterizes contributions by four types of precipitation—monoenergetic, broadband, electron, and ion diffuse—to ionospheric electrodynamics. The model uses a combination of adiabatic kinetic theory and loss parameters derived from historical energy flux patterns to estimate auroral precipitation from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) quantities. It then converts them into ionospheric conductance that is used to compute the ionospheric feedback to the magnetosphere. The model has been employed to simulate the 5–7 April 2010 Galaxy15 space weather event. Comparison of auroral fluxes show good agreement with observational data sets like NOAA-DMSP and OVATION Prime. The study shows a dominant contribution by electron diffuse precipitation, accounting for ∼74% of the auroral energy flux. However, contributions by monoenergetic and broadband sources dominate during times of active upstream solar conditions, providing for up to 61% of the total hemispheric power. The study also finds a greater role played by broadband precipitation in ionospheric electrodynamics which accounts for ∼31% of the Pedersen conductance.

Agnit Mukhopadhyay↗

Spatiotemporally Adaptive Compression for Scientific Dataset with Feature Preservation – A Case Study on Simulation Data with Extreme Climate Events Analysis

Scientific discoveries are increasingly constrained by limited storage space and I/O capacities. For time-series simulations and experiments, their data often need to be decimated over timesteps to accommodate storage and I/O limitations. In this paper, we propose a technique that addresses storage costs while improving post-analysis accuracy through spatiotemporal adaptive, error-controlled lossy compression. We investigate the trade-off between data precision and temporal output rates, revealing that reducing data precision and increasing timestep frequency lead to more accurate analysis outcomes. Additionally, we integrate spatiotemporal feature detection with data compression and demonstrate that performing adaptive error-bounded compression in higher dimensional space enables greater compression ratios, leveraging the error propagation theory of a transformation-based compressor. To evaluate our approach, we conduct experiments using the well-known E3SM climate simulation code and apply our method to compress variables used for cyclone tracking. Our results show a significant reduction in storage size while enhancing the quality of cyclone tracking analysis, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in comparison to the prevalent timestep decimation approach. Compared to three state-of-the-art lossy compressors lacking feature preservation capabilities, our adaptive compression framework improves perfectly matched cases in TC tracking by 26.4-51.3% at medium compression ratios and by 77.3-571.1% at large compression ratios, with a merely 5–11% computational overhead.

Gong, Qian↗

The Hidden Flexibility of the Natural Gas Network for Electric Power Operations: A Case Study of a Near-Miss Winter Event

The U.S. power sector has become increasingly reliant on gas pipeline networks to deliver fuel to natural gas power plants. In addition to supplying relatively low-cost fuel, gas networks offer generators flexibility in their operations through the ability to deliver fuel when needed by using gas storage facilities or linepack if the gas network is at an operating point below its design capacity. However, disruptions or stress events on the gas network - like those occurring in the Northeast and Texas in recent years - can result in limitations on gas availability to generators at times when generation is in short supply. Here we examine a period of stress that occurred in the winter of 2022 in the Western United States. Using data on the region's natural gas pipeline network and electric generators, we build an integrated gas and electric model that closely replicates the actual dispatch of the period. We then evaluate the implications of removing flexibility employed by the gas network operator, which during that period curtailed scheduled gas deliveries to other parties to increase deliveries to natural gas power plants, which requested more gas than initially forecasted. We find that without the flexibility supplied by the gas network operator, there would have been curtailment of gas generation due to gas offtake constraints, requiring the power system operator to redispatch relying on more expensive generation or to potentially shed load. A sensitivity exploring a wind drought further exacerbates the strain, illustrating the potential challenge of managing gas and grid interactions as systems move to higher shares of variable renewable electricity. Based on this example, we discuss potential coordination strategies between the two system operators to ensure that the power system can successfully utilize and rely on the flexibility offered by natural gas networks.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Studies of images of short-lived events using ERTS data

The author has identified the following significant results. It has been possible to identify old fires in the Alaskan tundra and to monitor the development of active fires. The area burned can be quickly determined by a number of methods. The ERTS-1 satellite provides a convenient way to moniter fire damage in remote areas.

Deutschman, W. A.↗