Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “event data models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Take-off Engine Particle Emission Indices for In-Service Aircraft at Los Angeles International Airport

We present ground‐based, advected aircraft engine emissions from flights taking off at Los Angeles International Airport. 275 discrete engine take‐off plumes were observed on 18 and 25 May 2014 at a distance of 400 m downwind of the runway. CO2 measurements are used to convert the aerosol data into plume‐average emissions indices that are suitable for modelling aircraft emissions. Total and non‐volatile particle number EIs are of order 1016‐1017 kg‐1 and 1014‐1016 kg‐1, respectively. Black‐carbon‐equivalent particle mass EIs vary between 175‐941 mg kg‐1 (except for the GE GEnx engines at 46 mg kg‐1). Aircraft tail numbers recorded for each take‐off event are used to incorporate aircraft‐ and engine‐specific parameters into the data set. Data acquisition and processing follow standard methods for quality assurance. A unique aspect of the data set is the mapping of aerosol concentration time series to integrated plume EIs, aircraft and engine specifications, and manufacturer‐reported engine emissions certifications. The integrated data enable future studies seeking to understand and model aircraft emissions and their impact on air quality.

Richard H Moore↗

What is special about Cygnus X-1?

The X-ray evidence from several experiments is reviewed, with special emphasis on those characteristics which appear to distinguish Cygnus X-1 from other compact X-ray emitting objects. Data are examined within the context of a model in which millisecond bursts are superposed upon shot-noise fluctuations arising from events of durations on the order of a second. Possible spectral-temporal correlations are investigated which provide additional evidence that Cygnus X-1 is very likely a black hole.

Boldt, E. A.↗

Magnetohydrodynamic models of coronal transients in the meridional plane. II - Simulation of the coronal transient of 1973 August 21

A two-dimensional planar MHD model of solar atmospheric transient events is used to simulate the flare-associated events of August 21, 1973. This event, observed in H-alpha, He II 304 A, soft X-ray, and coronal white light, provided sufficient information (especially in the latter diagnostic) for an assessment to be made of the model's ability to simulate major features of an actual solar event. It was found that a thermodynamic input pulse based on data provided by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center-Aerospace Corporation X-ray telescope (S-056) on Skylab was sufficient to produce the global geometry, shock and contact-surface velocities, excess mass contours, and energy budget which were, for the most part, observed by the High Altitude Observatory white-light coronagraph (S-052) on Skylab in the form of a forerunner and coronal transient.

Dryer, M.↗

Orbit dynamics and geographical coverage capabilities of satellite-based solar occultation experiments for global monitoring of stratospheric constituents

Orbit dynamics of the solar occultation technique for satellite measurements of the Earth's atmosphere are described. A one-year mission is simulated and the orbit and mission design implications are discussed in detail. Geographical coverage capabilities are examined parametrically for a range of orbit conditions. The hypothetical mission is used to produce a simulated one-year data base of solar occultation measurements; each occultation event is assumed to produce a single number, or 'measurement' and some statistical properties of the data set are examined. A simple model is fitted to the data to demonstrate a procedure for examining global distributions of atmospheric constitutents with the solar occultation technique.

Brooks, D. R.↗

SCATHA SSPM charging response: NASCAP predictions compared with data

Models for the satellite surface potential monitor (SSPM) units constructed in the NASCAP code and the results of comparing predictions to surface voltage and baseplate current data are reported. Several peculiarities in the test data are noted. Preliminary results from space simulations of a SCATHA model with environments representative of the day 87, 1979, eclipse injection event are presented, and their implications for predicting space response are discussed.

Purvis, C. K.↗

Emission characteristics of three intense solar flares observed in cycle 21

The available observational data is reviewed, for three solar flares, that occurred on June 21, 1980, June 3, 1982, and April 24, 1984. Inperpretations given prior to the time of this workshop and some interpretations presented at the workshop are considered. A possible common model describing the three flares is also discussed. It is clear that more refined analysis of all available data for these three events is very desirable and could lead to improved understanding of the flare process.

Chupp, Edward L.↗

Radioactive satellites - Intact reentry and breakup by debris impact

There is a substantial mass of radioactive material in nuclear reactors or radioisotope thermal generators (RTGs) in orbit about the earth. This paper examines the reentry of intact nuclear fuel cores and RTGs and the fragmentation and subsequent radioactive debris cloud deposition and evolution resulting from the impact of orbital debris upon an orbiting reactor, fuel core, or RTG. To assess the intact reentry, decay rates and a predicted decay date using historical and projected orbital decay data, are estimated. The current NASA debris environment model is utilized to estimate impact rates and debris cloud evolution of a fragmentation event. Results of these analyses are compared and concepts are tendered which would tend to minimize the radiological debris hazard to personnel and structures both on the earth's surface and in low earth orbit.

Anz-Meador, P. D.↗

Peering Through a Martian Veil: ALHA84001 Sm-Nd Age Revisited

The ancient Martian orthopyroxenite ALH84001experienced a complex history of impact and aqueous alteration events. Here we summarize Sm-147-Nd-143 and Sm-146-Nd-142 analyses performed at JSC. Further, using REE data, we model the REE abundance pattern of the basaltic magma parental to ALH84001 cumulus orthopyroxene. We find the Sm-146-Nd-142 isotopic data to be consistent with isotopic evolution in material having the modeled Sm/Nd ratio from a time very close to the planet's formation to igneous crystallization of ALH84001 as inferred from the Sm-Nd studies.

Nyquist, Laurence E.↗

Early Ultraviolet Observations of Type IIn Supernovae Constrain the Asphericity of Their Circumstellar Material

We present a survey of the early evolution of 12 Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) at ultraviolet and visible light wavelengths. We use this survey to constrain the geometry of the circumstellar material (CSM) surrounding SN IIn explosions, which may shed light on their progenitor diversity. In order to distinguish between aspherical and spherical CSM, we estimate the blackbody radius temporal evolution of the SNe IIn of our sample, following the method introduced by Soumagnac et al. We find that higher-luminosity objects tend to show evidence for aspherical CSM. Depending on whether this correlation is due to physical reasons or to some selection bias, we derive a lower limit between 35% and 66% for the fraction of SNe IIn showing evidence for aspherical CSM. This result suggests that asphericity of the CSM surrounding SNe IIn is common—consistent with data from resolved images of stars undergoing considerable mass loss. It should be taken into account for more realistic modeling of these events.

Maayane T Soumagnac↗

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗

Risk Analysis Associated with Loss of Toxic Gases During Orion Landing and Recovery Operations

Mission, landing and recovery operations for the Orion crew module involve reentry into the Earth's atmosphere and the deployment of three Nomex parachutes to slow the descent before landing along the west coast of the United States. Orion may have residual fuel (hydrazine, N2H4) or coolant (ammonia, NH3) on board which are both highly toxic to crew in the event of exposure. These risks were evaluated using a first principles analysis approach through fluid dynamics modeling. Plume calculations were first performed with the ANSYS Fluent computational fluid dynamics code. Data were then extracted at locations relevant to crew safety such as the snorkel fan inlet and the egress hatch. Mixing calculations were performed to quantify exposure concentrations within the crew bay before and during egress and departure. Finally, results included herein were used to inform the Orion post-landing Concept of Operations (ConOps) so that strategies could be formulated to maintain crew safety in the event of the loss of fuel or coolant.

Orion↗

Variability of Upper-Tropospheric Precipitable from Satellite and Model Reanalysis Datasets

Numerous datasets have been used to quantify water vapor and its variability in the upper-troposphere from satellite and model reanalysis data. These investigations have shown some usefulness in monitoring seasonal and inter-annual variations in moisture either globally, with polar orbiting satellite data or global model output analysis, or regionally, with the higher spatial and temporal resolution geostationary measurements. The datasets are not without limitations, however, due to coverage or limited temporal sampling, and may also contain bias in their representation of moisture processes. The research presented in this conference paper inter-compares the NVAP, NCEP/NCAR and DAO reanalysis models, and GOES satellite measurements of upper-tropospheric,precipitable water for the period from 1988-1994. This period captures several dramatic swings in climate events associated with ENSO events. The data are evaluated for temporal and spatial continuity, inter-compared to assess reliability and potential bias, and analyzed in light of expected trends due to changes in precipitation and synoptic-scale weather features. This work is the follow-on to previous research which evaluated total precipitable water over the same period. The relationship between total and upper-level precipitable water in the datasets will be discussed as well.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Using Satellite Soil Moisture and Rainfall in the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness System

The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness system(LHASA)gives a global view of landslide hazard in nearly real time. Currently, it is being upgraded from version 1 to version 2, which entails improvements along several dimensions. These include the incorporation of new predictors, machine learning, and new event-based landslide inventories. As a result, LHASA version 2 substantially improves on the prior performanceand introduces a probabilistic element to the global landslide nowcast. Data from the soil moisture active-passive (SMAP) satellite has been assimilated into a globally consistent data product with a latency less than 3 days, known as SMAP Level 4. In LHASA, thesedata representthe antecedent conditions prior to landslide-triggering rainfall. In some cases, soil moisture may have accumulated over aperiod of many months. The model behind SMAP Level 4 also estimates the amount of snow on the ground, which is an important factor in some landslide events. LHASA also incorporates this information as an antecedent condition that modulates the response torainfall. Slope, lithology, and active faults were also used as predictor variables. These factors can have a strong influence on where landslides initiate.LHASA relies on precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission to identify the locations where landslides are most probable. The low latency and consistent global coverage of these data make them ideal for real-time applications at continental to global scales. LHASA relies primarily on rainfall from the last 24 hours to spothazardous sites, which is rescaled by the local 99thpercentile rainfall.However, the multi-day latency of SMAP requires the use of a 2-day antecedent rainfall variable to represent the accumulation of rain between the antecedent soil moisture and current rainfall. LHASA merges these predictors with XGBoost, a commonly used machine-learning tool, relying on historical landslide inventories to develop the relationship between landslide occurrence and various risk factors. The resulting model relies heavily on current daily rainfall, but other factors also play an important role. LHASA outputsthe probability oflandslide occurrence ona grid of roughly one kilometer over all continents from 60 North to 60 South latitude. Evaluation over the period 2019-2020 showsthat LHASA version 2 doubles the accuracy of the global landslide nowcast without increasing the global false alarm rate. LHASA also identifies the areas where the human exposure to landslide hazard is most intense. Landslide hazard is divided into 4 levels: minimal, low, moderate, and high. Next, the number of persons and the length of major roads (primary and secondary roads)within each of these areas is calculated for every second-level administrative district (county). These results can be viewedthrough a web portal hosted at the Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition, users can download daily hazard and exposure data.LHASAversion 2uses machine learning and satellite data to identify areas of probable landslide hazard within hours of heavy rainfall. Itsglobal maps are significantly more accurate, and it now includes rapid estimates of exposed populations and infrastructure. In addition, a forecast mode will be implemented soon.

Thomas Stanley↗

Machine-Learning-Based Adaptive Thinning of CrIS Radiances to Improve Global Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts

This work is focused on optimizing the assimilation of hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) with the goal of improving the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global analyses and forecasts. Current operational assimilation systems rely on subsampling IR radiances on a regular thinning grid. A new and improved adaptive methodology based on machine learning (ML) recognizes TCs from geostationary satellite imagery and is implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation framework. The ML methodology is extensively trained on existing TC data sets and creates for each TC a dynamic mask, based on the evolving shape and life cycle of that specific event. Once a TC mask is created, a switch is then activated in the data assimilation system to alter the thinning, ingesting more CrIS radiances within the moving mask, thus increasing the TC sampling. After the TC dissipates, the assimilation of CrIS radiances reverts to normal data density. Results of TC segmentation provided by a state-of-the-art generative machine learning model known as the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) are compared to the previously used U-Net model. The new approach surpasses the performance of the previously developed one. The methodology is applied to both clear-sky and cloud-cleared radiances. Benefits from the latter methodology, particularly in improving the structure of TCs and the intensity forecasts, are presented.

Oreste Reale↗

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗

Importance of Radiative Transfer Models in Atmospheric Remote Sensing

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) play a significant role in the development of satellite instruments for remote sensing applications. These models simulate electromagnetic radiation's propagation through the atmosphere, providing valuable insights into atmosphere-radiation interactions. RTMs facilitate the optimization of satellite instrument designs, ensuring their ability to measure targeted atmospheric and surface properties accurately. Moreover, they aid in simulating instrument’s measurements under various atmospheric conditions, enabling calibration and validation processes to enhance data quality and reliability. RTMs are extensively used in the Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), to generate synthetic observations. By incorporating RTMs into OSSE, we can assess the potential impact of future satellite missions, sensor configurations, and data assimilation techniques. This approach allows for the optimization of satellite instruments and constellations and the evaluation of their influence on weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and other Earth science applications. Another crucial application area of RT models is data assimilation, where they play a fundamental role in combining satellite observations with numerical models to improve atmospheric and environmental predictions. RTMs provide the link between observed radiances and atmospheric parameters, enhancing the accuracy of numerical models and generating more reliable forecasts for weather events, air quality assessments, and climate projections. Moreover, adapting RT models to capture the intricate radiation interactions within the Planetary Boundary Layer will significantly contribute to improving weather forecasting and climate change projections. Current community radiative transfer (RT) models are primarily developed and optimized for operational data assimilation of satellite observations. These models excel at assimilating satellite data into numerical weather prediction models to improve forecast accuracy. However, their focus on data assimilation limits their suitability for other important applications, such as satellite instrument development, OSSE, and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) studies. Moreover, for PBL studies, RT models need to be adapted to capture the intricate radiation interactions within this crucial atmospheric layer. Developing RT models that can represent the PBL's unique characteristics, such as surface interactions, will contribute significantly to understanding and predicting weather phenomena, air quality, and climate dynamics. This abstract provides a comprehensive overview of the current status of RT models and highlights their limitations concerning satellite instrument development, OSSE, and PBL studies. Addressing these shortcomings requires concerted efforts to enhance RT models' capabilities and expand their applications beyond data assimilation. By investing in research and development to improve these

Isaac Moradi↗

Constraining Aerosol Optical Models Using Ground-Based, Collocated Particle Size and Mass Measurements in Variable Air Mass Regimes During the 7-SEAS/Dongsha Experiment

During the spring of 2010, NASA Goddard's COMMIT ground-based mobile laboratory was stationed on Dongsha Island off the southwest coast of Taiwan, in preparation for the upcoming 2012 7-SEAS field campaign. The measurement period offered a unique opportunity for conducting detailed investigations of the optical properties of aerosols associated with different air mass regimes including background maritime and those contaminated by anthropogenic air pollution and mineral dust. What appears to be the first time for this region, a shortwave optical closure experiment for both scattering and absorption was attempted over a 12-day period during which aerosols exhibited the most change. Constraints to the optical model included combined SMPS and APS number concentration data for a continuum of fine and coarse-mode particle sizes up to PM2.5. We also take advantage of an IMPROVE chemical sampler to help constrain aerosol composition and mass partitioning of key elemental species including sea-salt, particulate organic matter, soil, non sea-salt sulphate, nitrate, and elemental carbon. Our results demonstrate that the observed aerosol scattering and absorption for these diverse air masses are reasonably captured by the model, where peak aerosol events and transitions between key aerosols types are evident. Signatures of heavy polluted aerosol composed mostly of ammonium and non sea-salt sulphate mixed with some dust with transitions to background sea-salt conditions are apparent in the absorption data, which is particularly reassuring owing to the large variability in the imaginary component of the refractive indices. Extinctive features at significantly smaller time scales than the one-day sample period of IMPROVE are more difficult to reproduce, as this requires further knowledge concerning the source apportionment of major chemical components in the model. Consistency between the measured and modeled optical parameters serves as an important link for advancing remote sensing and climate research studies in dynamic aerosol-rich environments like Dongsha.

Bell, Shaun W.↗

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008), which was prepared by the Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop. The present document is an expanded summary of that report.

Source record↗