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Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2015

Estimating Uncertainties in the Multi-Instrument SBUV Profile Ozone Merged Data Set

The MOD data set is uniquely qualified for use in long-term ozone analysis because of its long record, high spatial coverage, and consistent instrument design and algorithm. The estimated MOD uncertainty term significantly increases the uncertainty over the statistical error alone. Trends in the post-2000 period are generally positive in the upper stratosphere, but only significant at 1-1.6 hPa. Remaining uncertainties not yet included in the Monte Carlo model are Smoothing Error ( 1 from 10 to 1 hPa) Relative calibration uncertainty between N11 and N17Seasonal cycle differences between SBUV records.

Uncertainties↗

NASA NTRS1979

Magnetic field directional discontinuities. 1: Minimum variance errors

Errors associated with the minimum variance analysis of directional discontinuity normal components were investigated using both computer simulation of discontinuities with controlled properties and the examination of current sheets observed by the Mariner 10 spacecraft. The simulated discontinuities were created by adding fluctuations, represented by isotropic noise, to exactly known but varying (in a plane) magnetic field components. An empirical expression for the magnitude of the error in an estimated discontinuity normal component, relative to the total field across the discontinuity, was derived, as well as other relevant statistical properties. Use of the empirical relation in the analysis of 644 discontinuities observed by Mariner 10 provides a more precise, but probably conservative, estimate of an upper bound on the relative normal component value for tangential discontinuities that can be used to separate rotational from tangential discontinuities in studies using only magnetic field data from a single spacecraft, at least for the interplanetary region of space considered.

Lepping, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Decision-directed automatic gain control for MAPSK systems

An automatic gain control (AGC) loop is presented for use with M-ary amplitude and phase shift keying (MAPSK) systems. The gain control amplifier is regulated by an error signal formed by the difference between the estimated amplitude level and the received amplitude level. The AGC performance is thus independent of the short-term average received signal energy. AGC loop analysis and simulation is presented for M-ary amplitude shift keying and quadrature amplitude shift keying. The AGC is shown to have a negligible degradation on the symbol probability of error for most practical cases. A generalized AGC for an arbitrary MAPSK system is presented.

Weber, W. J., III↗

NASA NTRS2009

Detection of presence of chemical precursors

Methods and systems for determining if one or more target molecules are present in a gas, by exposing a functionalized carbon nanostructure (CNS) to the gas and measuring an electrical parameter value EPV(n) associated with each of N CNS sub-arrays. In a first embodiment, a most-probable concentration value C(opt) is estimated, and an error value, depending upon differences between the measured values EPV(n) and corresponding values EPV(n;C(opt)) is computed. If the error value is less than a first error threshold value, the system interprets this as indicating that the target molecule is present in a concentration C.apprxeq.C(opt). A second embodiment uses extensive statistical and vector space analysis to estimate target molecule concentration.

Li, Jing↗

NASA NTRS1986

Effects of model error on control of large flexible space antenna with comparisons of decoupled and linear quadratic regulator control procedures

An analysis was performed to determine the effects of model error on the control of a large flexible space antenna. Control was achieved by employing two three-axis control-moment gyros (CMG's) located on the antenna column. State variables were estimated by including an observer in the control loop that used attitude and attitude-rate sensors on the column. Errors were assumed to exist in the individual model parameters: modal frequency, modal damping, mode slope (control-influence coefficients), and moment of inertia. Their effects on control-system performance were analyzed either for (1) nulling initial disturbances in the rigid-body modes, or (2) nulling initial disturbances in the first three flexible modes. The study includes the effects on stability, time to null, and control requirements (defined as maximum torque and total momentum), as well as on the accuracy of obtaining initial estimates of the disturbances. The effects on the transients of the undisturbed modes are also included. The results, which are compared for decoupled and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control procedures, are shown in tabular form, parametric plots, and as sample time histories of modal-amplitude and control responses. Results of the analysis showed that the effects of model errors on the control-system performance were generally comparable for both control procedures. The effect of mode-slope error was the most serious of all model errors.

Hamer, H. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Validation of an Algorithm for Combined Soiling and Degradation Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems

We describe and demonstrate an open-source algorithm for simultaneously quantifying degradation and soiling of photovoltaic (PV) systems from energy-production time series data. The new analysis is based on year-on-year degradation rate analysis combined with stochastic rate and recovery soiling analysis. The algorithm is designed to fit into the workflow provided by RdTools, a Python module maintained by NREL and collaboratively developed with the community, which provides a framework and functions for degradation and loss-factor analysis of PV field data. We demonstrate the method on numerically simulated PV data sets and show that it reduces the root-mean-square error of the P50 degradation rate estimate when soiling is present.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from galaxy clustering and weak lensing with HSC and SDSS using the emulator based halo model

We present cosmology results from a blinded joint analysis of cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy weak lensing, and projected galaxy clustering, measured from the Hyper Suprime-Cam three-year (HSC-Y3) shape catalog and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR11 spectroscopic galaxy catalog—a cosmology analysis. We define luminosity-cut, and therefore nearly volume-limited, samples of SDSS galaxies to serve as the tracers of w p and as the lens samples for Δ⁢Σ in three spectroscopic redshift bins spanning the range 0.15± and Δ⁢Σ measurements, we use a single sample of about seven million source galaxies over 416 deg 2 , selected from HSC-Y3 based on having photometric redshifts (photo-z) greater than 0.75. The deep, high-quality HSC-Y3 data enable significant detections of the Δ⁢Σ signals, with integrated signal-to-noise ratio S/N~24 in the range 3≤R/[ℎ –1 Mpc]≤30 over the three lens samples. ξ ± has S/N ~19 in the range 8' ≤$\theta$ ≤5⁢0' and 30' ≤$\theta$ ≤15⁢0' for ξ + and ξ – , respectively. For cosmological parameter inference, we use the dark emulator package, combined with a halo occupation distribution prescription for the relation between galaxies and halos, to model w p and Δ⁢Σ down to quasinonlinear scales, and we estimate cosmological parameters after marginalizing over nuisance parameters. In our baseline analysis we employ an uninformative flat prior of the residual photo-z error, given by Π⁡(Δz ph )=$U$⁡(–1,1), to model a residual bias in the mean redshift of HSC source galaxies. Comparing the relative lensing amplitudes for Δ⁢Σ in the three redshift bins and for ξ ± with the single HSC source galaxy sample allows us to calibrate the photo-z parameter Δ⁢z ph to the precision of σ⁡(Δ⁢z ph )≃0.09. With these methods, we obtain a robust constraint on the cosmological parameters for the flat Λ⁢CDM model: S 8 =σ 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 =$0.763^{+0.040}_{–0.036}$, or the best-constrained parameter given by $S^{'}_{8}$ = σ 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.22 =0.721±0.028, determined with about 4% fractional precision. Based on multidimensional tension metrics, HSC-Y3 data exhibits about 2.5σ tension with the cosmological constraint inferred by Planck for the Λ⁢CDM model, and hints at a nonzero residual photo-z bias implying that the true mean redshift of the HSC galaxies at z ≳0.75 is higher than that implied by the original photo-z estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Verifiable Adaptive Control with Analytical Stability Margins by Optimal Control Modification

This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

FLUXNET-CH4 Synthesis Activity: Objectives, Observations, and Future Directions

This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH4 fluxes across sites ranged from −0.2 ± 0.02 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) for an upland forest site to 114.9 ± 13.4 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average ±1.6 g C m(exp -2) yr(exp -1) at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH4 emissions.

Knox, Sara H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Optimum data analysis procedures for Titan 4 and Space Shuttle payload acoustic measurements during lift-off

Analytical expressions have been derived to describe the mean square error in the estimation of the maximum rms value computed from a step-wise (or running) time average of a nonstationary random signal. These analytical expressions have been applied to the problem of selecting the optimum averaging times that will minimize the total mean square errors in estimates of the maximum sound pressure levels measured inside the Titan IV payload fairing (PLF) and the Space Shuttle payload bay (PLB) during lift-off. Based on evaluations of typical Titan IV and Space Shuttle launch data, it has been determined that the optimum averaging times for computing the maximum levels are (1) T (sub o) = 1.14 sec for the maximum overall level, and T(sub oi) = 4.88 f (sub i) (exp -0.2) sec for the maximum 1/3 octave band levels inside the Titan IV PLF, and (2) T (sub o) = 1.65 sec for the maximum overall level, and T (sub oi) = 7.10 f (sub i) (exp -0.2) sec for the maximum 1/3 octave band levels inside the Space Shuttle PLB, where f (sub i) is the 1/3 octave band center frequency. However, the results for both vehicles indicate that the total rms error in the maximum level estimates will be within 25 percent the minimum error for all averaging times within plus or minus 50 percent of the optimum averaging time, so a precise selection of the exact optimum averaging time is not critical. Based on these results, linear averaging times (T) are recommended for computing the maximum sound pressure level during lift-off.

Piersol, Allan G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Large-momentum effective theory’s asymptotic extrapolation vs the inverse problem

Large-momentum effective theory is a physics-guided systematic expansion to calculate light-cone parton distributions, including collinear (PDFs) and transverse-momentum-dependent ones, at any fixed momentum fraction 𝑥 within a range of [𝑥 min , 𝑥 max ]. It theoretically solves the ill-posed inverse problem that afflicts other theoretical approaches to collinear PDFs, such as short-distance factorizations. Recently, Dutrieux et al. raised practical concerns about whether current or even future lattice data will have sufficient precision in the subasymptotic correlation region to support an error-controlled extrapolation—and if not, whether it becomes an inverse problem where the relevant uncertainties cannot be properly quantified. While we agree that not all current lattice data have the desired precision to qualify for an asymptotic extrapolation, some calculations do, and more are expected in the future. We comment on the analysis and results in Dutrieux et al. and argue that a physics-based systematic extrapolation still provides the most reliable error estimates, even when the data quality is not ideal. In contrast, reframing the long-distance asymptotic extrapolation as a data-driven-only inverse problem with ad hoc mathematical conditioning could lead to unnecessarily conservative errors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1988

Pointing control for LDR

One important aspect of the LDR control problem is the possible excitations of structural modes due to random disturbances, mirror chopping, and slewing maneuvers. An analysis was performed to yield a first order estimate of the effects of such dynamic excitations. The analysis involved a study of slewing jitters, chopping jitters, disturbance responses, and pointing errors, making use of a simplified planar LDR model which describes the LDR dynamics on a plane perpendicular to the primary reflector. Briefly, the results indicate that the command slewing profile plays an important role in minimizing the resultant jitter, even to a level acceptable without any control action. An optimal profile should therefore be studied.

Yam, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

General method for assessing the geographically correlated error for an orbiter with applications to Topex

An estimation based computational algorithm for evaluating geographically dependent orbit determination errors is presented. A derivation is included of the generalized geographically correlated error analysis algorithm and the algorithm is applied to a Topex simulation. Then a general numerical technique which provides the capability to analyze any type of mismodeled parameter with the geopotential as a special case is described. The numerical algorithm is compared with the analytic method of Rosborough (1986) and it is shown that both methods generate consistent geographically dependent orbit error profiles when the ephemeris error is dominated by the mismodeled geopotential.

Wolff, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Navigation accuracy analysis for the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS) experiment on EP/EUVE

A navigation accuracy analysis of the TONS (TDRSS Onboard Navigation System) experiment on the Explorer Platform/Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EP/EUVE) is reported. The analysis process includes both sequential estimation covariance analysis and the processing of 'realistic' simulated tracking data. The sensitivity of the navigation accuracy to force modeling and measurement errors is evaluated as a function of the tracking schedule and the process noise model tuning parameters.

Gramling, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Utilization of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology: Sensitivity and Assimilation

This paper investigates the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to input meteorological variables, viz- surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure. The sensitivity studies have been carried out for a wide range of land surface variables such as wind speed, leaf area index and surface temperatures. Errors in the surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure result in errors of different signs in the computed potential evapotranspiration. This result has implications for use of estimated values from satellite data or analysis of surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure in large scale hydrological modeling. The comparison of cumulative potential evapotranspiration estimates using ground observations and satellite observations over Manhattan, Kansas for a period of several months shows very little difference between the two. The cumulative differences between the ground based and satellite based estimates of potential evapotranspiration amounted to less that 20mm over a 18 month period and a percentage difference of 15%. The use of satellite estimates of surface skin temperature in hydrological modeling to update the soil moisture using a physical adjustment concept is studied in detail including the extent of changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of surface skin temperature. The soil moisture of the surface layer is adjusted by 0.9mm over a 10 day period as a result of a 3K difference between the predicted and the observed surface temperature. This is a considerable amount given the fact that the top layer can hold only 5mm of water.

Lakshmi, Venkataraman↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of 10‐m Wind Speed From ISD Meteorological Stations and the MERRA‐2 Reanalysis: Impacts on Dust Emission in the Arabian Peninsula

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols when studying the radiative balance and climate of the planet. There are different dust emission schemes utilized by the atmospheric modeling communities, many of which disagree on basic output quantities such as mass of dust emitted and distribution of mass among size bins. In this work, we examined mineral dust emission from a leading model scheme, the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), as utilized in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Reanalysis and compared it to dust emissions calculated using wind measurements from ground based weather stations located in the Arabian Peninsula that are included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) integrated surface database (ISD). An intercomparison of 10-m wind speed is shown for the Arabian Peninsula region, differences of the observed and modeled wind field are quantified, and impacts of differences on dust emissions are calculated. This analysis shows 10-m winds in the ISD were generally lower than MERRA-2 winds, which propagated to dust emissions errors. Our estimate of one of the most significant mass impacts in dust emission is 0.178 Tg/year/grid box with a percent change of over 200% to the recalculated dust emissions from MERRA-2. These differences in wind speed propagated to a difference in dust mass emitted by the use of a static source function which aids in scaling the mass emitted by the availability of dust in each grid. Additionally, the magnitude of these differences varies seasonally.

winds↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗