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At least 505 records · Page 28

The NEWS Water Cycle Climatology

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the first phase of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project was a multi-institutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe the results of the water cycle component of the first phase of the project, which include seasonal (monthly) climatologies of water fluxes over land, ocean, and atmosphere at continental and ocean basin scales. The requirement of closure of the water budget (i.e., mass conservation) at various scales was exploited to constrain the flux estimates via an optimization approach that will also be described. Further, error assessments were included with the input datasets, and we examine these in relation to inferred uncertainty in the optimized flux estimates in order to gauge our current ability to close the water budget within an expected uncertainty range.

Rodell, Matthew↗

A Multi-Band Uncertainty Set Based Robust SCUC With Spatial and Temporal Budget Constraints

The dramatic increase of renewable energy resources in recent years, together with the long-existing load forecast errors and increasingly involved price sensitive demands, has introduced significant uncertainties into power systems operation. In order to guarantee the operational security of power systems with such uncertainties, robust optimization has been extensively studied in security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems, for immunizing the system against worst uncertainty realizations. However, traditional robust SCUC models with single-band uncertainty sets may yield over-conservative solutions in most cases. This paper proposes a multi-band robust model to accurately formulate various uncertainties with higher resolution. By properly tuning band intervals and weight coefficients of individual bands, the proposed multi-band robust model can rigorously and realistically reflect spatial/temporal relationships and asymmetric characteristics of various uncertainties, and in turn could effectively leverage the tradeoff between robustness and economics of robust SCUC solutions. The proposed multi-band robust SCUC model is solved by Benders decomposition (BD) and outer approximation (OA), while taking the advantage of integral property of the proposed multi-band uncertainty set. In addition, several accelerating techniques are developed for enhancing the computational performance and the convergence speed. Numerical studies on a 6-bus system and the modified IEEE 118-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed robust SCUC approach for enhancing uncertainty modeling capabilities and mitigating conservativeness of the robust SCUC solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A new stepwise carbon cycle data assimilation system using multiple data streams to constrain the simulated land surface carbon cycle

Here, large uncertainties in land surface models (LSMs) simulations still arise from inaccurate forcing, poor description of land surface heterogeneity (soil and vegetation properties), incorrect model parameter values and incomplete representation of biogeochemical processes. The recent increase in the number and type of carbon cycle-related observations, including both in situ and remote sensing measurements, has opened a new road to optimize model parameters via robust statistical model–data integration techniques, in order to reduce the uncertainties of simulated carbon fluxes and stocks. In this study we present a carbon cycle data assimilation system that assimilates three major data streams, namely the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) flux measurements at more than 70 sites (FLUXNET), as well as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at 53 surface stations, in order to optimize the main parameters (around 180 parameters in total) of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamics Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) LSM (version 1.9.5 used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations). The system relies on a stepwise approach that assimilates each data stream in turn, propagating the information gained on the parameters from one step to the next. Overall, the ORCHIDEE model is able to achieve a consistent fit to all three data streams, which suggests that current LSMs have reached the level of development to assimilate these observations. The assimilation of MODIS-NDVI (step 1) reduced the growing season length in ORCHIDEE for temperate and boreal ecosystems, thus decreasing the global mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Using FLUXNET data (step 2) led to large improvements in the seasonal cycle of the NEE and LE fluxes for all ecosystems (i.e., increased amplitude for temperate ecosystems). The assimilation of atmospheric CO 2 , using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDz; step 3), provides an overall constraint (i.e., constraint on large-scale net CO 2 fluxes), resulting in an improvement of the fit to the observed atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. Thus, the optimized model predicts a land C (carbon) sink of around 2.2 PgC yr -1 (for the 2000–2009 period), which is more compatible with current estimates from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) than the prior value. The consistency of the stepwise approach is evaluated with back-compatibility checks. The final optimized model (after step 3) does not significantly degrade the fit to MODIS-NDVI and FLUXNET data that were assimilated in the first two steps, suggesting that a stepwise approach can be used instead of the more “challenging” implementation of a simultaneous optimization in which all data streams are assimilated together. Most parameters, including the scalar of the initial soil carbon pool size, changed during the optimization with a large error reduction. This work opens new perspectives for better predictions of the land carbon budgets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High resolution imagery with the large space telescope.

A number of general characteristics of a diffraction limited telescope are examined, giving attention to the optical system of the Stratoscope II instrument. The optical resolution of a telescope can be described in at least three different ways, involving the wavefront error, the optical transfer function, and the point spread function. The Stratoscope II tolerance budget and the performance of the instrument are discussed together with a goal for the resolution of the large space telescope (LST) which is to be designed. The very high resolving power of the LST will be utilized in many ways. The imagery of extended objects with low surface contrast is considered along with the photometry of very faint stars.

Danielson, R. E.↗

System considerations for an earth radiation budget scanning radiometer

The objective of the scanning radiometer of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite System is to measure the longwave and reflected shortwave radiation from the earth on a gridwork of approximately 250 km square regions in order to obtain one-month averages of flux with global coverage to an accuracy of 14 W/sq m. A number of considerations in the choice of some of the design parameters of the scanner are discussed. The error sources which must be considered in the design of a scanning radiometer designed to measure regional radiation budget are examined. An analysis of the system performance through spatial averaging is presented. The analysis provides insight into the effects of field of view, time response, onboard processing and spatial averaging.

Smith, G. L.↗

Transfer function considerations for the CERES scanning radiometer

The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanning radiometer will determine the radiation budget of the Earth on a regional basis over a number of years. The error in the reconstructed field is used as a design criterion for selecting design parameters for the instrument. The reconstruction error is comprised of errors due to aliasing, blurring and radiance equivalent noise of the instrument, and can be evaluated in terms of the transfer function of the system.

Manalo, N.↗

Scene identification probabilities for evaluating earth radiation measurements

Alongtrack data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite are used here to derive scene identification probabilities empirically. These error probabilities are shown to be functions of view zenith angle and scene type, but not of other parameters such as solar zenith angle and relative azimuth angle, except in the sunglint region. The standard deviations of the resulting errors in radiative fluxes are also presented.

Manalo, N.↗

Carbon-Water-Energy Relations for Selected River Basins

A biophysical process-based model was run using satellite, assimilated and ancillary data for four years (1987-1990) to calculate components of total evaporation (transpiration, interception, soil and snow evaporation), net radiation, absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and net primary productivity over the global land surface. Satellite observations provided fractional vegetation cover, solar and photosynthetically active radiation incident of the surface, surface albedo, fractional cloud cover, air temperature and vapor pressure. The friction velocity and surface air pressure are obtained from a four dimensional data assimilation results, while precipitation is either only surface observations or a blended product of surface and satellite observations. All surface and satellite data are monthly mean values; precipitation has been disaggregated into daily values. All biophysical parameters of the model are prescribed according to published records. From these global land surface calculations results for river basins are derived using digital templates of basin boundaries. Comparisons with field observations (micrometeorologic, catchment water balance, biomass production) and atmospheric water budget analysis for monthly evaporation from six river basins have been done to assess errors in the calculations. Comparisons are also made with previous estimates of zonal variations of evaporation and net primary productivity. Efficiencies of transpiration, total evaporation and radiation use, and evaporative fraction for selected river basins will be presented.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

The earth's angular momentum budget on subseasonal time scales

Irregular length of day (LOD) fluctuations on time scales of less than a few years are largely produced by atmospheric torques on the underlying planet. Significant coherence is found between the respective time series of LOD and atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) determinations at periods down to 8 days, with lack of coherence at shorter periods caused by the declining signal-to-measurement noise ratios of both data types. Refinements to the currently accepted model of tidal earth rotation variations are required, incorporating in particular the nonequilibrium effect of the oceans. The remaining discrepancies between LOD and AAM in the 100- to 10-day period range may be due to either a common error in the AAM data sets from different meteorological centers, or another component of the angular momentum budget.

Dickey, J. O.↗

WE-G-BRA-07: Analyzing the Safety Implications of a Brachytherapy Process Improvement Project Utilizing a Novel System-Theory-Based Hazard-Analysis Technique

Purpose: To investigate the hazards in cervical-cancer HDR brachytherapy using a novel hazard-analysis technique, System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). The applicability and benefit of STPA to the field of radiation oncology is demonstrated. Methods: We analyzed the tandem and ring HDR procedure through observations, discussions with physicists and physicians, and the use of a previously developed process map. Controllers and their respective control actions were identified and arranged into a hierarchical control model of the system, modeling the workflow from applicator insertion through initiating treatment delivery. We then used the STPA process to identify potentially unsafe control actions. Scenarios were then generated from the identified unsafe control actions and used to develop recommendations for system safety constraints. Results: 10 controllers were identified and included in the final model. From these controllers 32 potentially unsafe control actions were identified, leading to more than 120 potential accident scenarios, including both clinical errors (e.g., using outdated imaging studies for planning), and managerial-based incidents (e.g., unsafe equipment, budget, or staffing decisions). Constraints identified from those scenarios include common themes, such as the need for appropriate feedback to give the controllers an adequate mental model to maintain safe boundaries of operations. As an example, one finding was that the likelihood of the potential accident scenario of the applicator breaking during insertion might be reduced by establishing a feedback loop of equipment-usage metrics and equipment-failure reports to the management controller. Conclusion: The utility of STPA in analyzing system hazards in a clinical brachytherapy system was demonstrated. This technique, rooted in system theory, identified scenarios both technical/clinical and managerial in nature. These results suggest that STPA can be successfully used to analyze safety in brachytherapy and may prove to be an alternative to other hazard analysis techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An integrated study of earth resources in the state of California using remote sensing techniques

The author has identified the following significant results. A weighted stratified double sample design using hardcopy LANDSAT-1 and ground data was utilized in developmental studies for snow water content estimation. Study results gave a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between LANDSAT sample units estimates of snow water content and ground subsamples. A basin snow water content estimate allowable error was given as 1.00 percent at the 99 percent confidence level with the same budget level utilized in conventional snow surveys. Several evapotranspiration estimation models were selected for efficient application at each level of data to be sampled. An area estimation procedure for impervious surface types of differing impermeability adjacent to stream channels was developed. This technique employs a double sample of 1:125,000 color infrared hightflight transparency data with ground or large scale photography.

Colwell, R. N.↗

Comparison and testing of extended Kalman filters for attitude estimation of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite

This paper presents the testing and comparison of two extended Kalman filters (EKFs) developed for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS). One EKF updates the attitude quaternion using a four-component additive error quaternion. This technique is compared to that of a second EKF, which uses a multiplicative error quaternion. Brief developments of the algorithms are included. The convergence properties, singularity problems, and normalization techniques of the two filters are addressed. Both filters are tested with simulated ERBS sensor data in addition to real ERBS sensor data. The results of the two filters are also compared to those from the ERBS operational ground support software, which uses a batch differential correction algorithm to estimate attitude and gyro biases.

Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.↗

Examination of the relationship between outgoing infrared window and total longwave fluxes using satellite data

The relationship between narrowband and broadband thermal radiances is explored to determine the accuracy of outgoing longwave radiation derived from narrowband data. Infrared window (10.2-12.2 microns) data from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite are correlated with longwave (5.0-50.0 microns) data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. A simple quadratic fit between the narrowband and longwave fluxes results in standard errors of 4.4-5.3 percent for data that are matched closely in time and space. The use of matched regional flux data with temporal differences up to 59 minutes yields standard errors of 4.1-5.4 percent. About 30 percent of the error may be attributed to limb darkening and spatial and temporal differences in the matched fluxes. The relationship shows a statistically significant dependence on the relative humidity of the atmosphere above the radiating surface. Although this dependency accounts for only about 1 percent of the standard error, it reduces the monthly mean regional errors by more than 10 percent. Data taken over land produced a relationship slightly different from data taken over water. The differences appear to be primarily due to daytime heating of the land surface.

Minnis, Patrick↗

Thermistor bolometer scanning radiometer - Applications and flight experience

Scanning radiometers aboard both high-altitude sun-synchronous polar orbit and low altitude equatorial orbit spacecraft have conducted measurements of the earth's long-wave radiation. Attention is presently given to the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite Experiment instruments, which are designed to measure earth radiance with an absolute radiometric error of less than 1 percent. The scanner instruments consists of three broadband radiometer channels employing thermistor bolometers as sensing elements; these radiometers repeatedly scan the earth from limb to limb every 4 sec, generating contiguous pixels on the earth's surface.

Kopia, Leonard P.↗

Evaluating the design of an Earth Radiation Budget Instrument with systen simulations. Part 1: Instantaneous estimates

A set of system simulations has been performed to evaluate candidate scanner designs for an Earth Radiation Budget Instrument (ERBI) for the Earth Observing System (EOS) of the late 1990s. Five different instruments are considered: (1) the Active Cavity Array (ACA), (2) the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System-Instrument (CERES-I), (3) the Conically Scanning Radiometer (CSR), (4) the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Cross-Track Scanner (ERBE), and (5) the Nimbus-7 Biaxial Scanner (N7). Errors in instantaneous, top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) satellite flux estimates are assumed to arise from two measurement problems: the sampling of space over a given geographic domain, and sampling in angle about a given spatial location. When angular sampling errors vanish due to the application of correct angular dependence models (ADMs) during inversion, the accuracy of each scanner design is determined by the instrument's ability to map the TOA radiance field in a uniform manner. In this regard, the instruments containing a cross-track scanning component (CERES-I and ERBE) do best. As errors in ADMs are encountered, cross-track instruments incur angular sampling errors more rapidly than biaxial instruments (N7, ACA, and CSR) and eventually overtake the biaxial designs in their total error amounts. A latitude bias (north-south error gradient) in the ADM error of cross-track instruments also exists. This would be objectionable when ADM errors are systematic over large areas of the globe. For instantaneous errors, however, cross-track scanners outperform biaxial or conical scanners for 2.5 deg latitude x 2.5 deg longitude target areas, providing that the ADM error is less than or equal to 30%. A key issue is the amount of systematic ADM error (departures from the mean models) that is present at the 2.5 deg resolution of the ERBE target areas. If this error is less than 30%, then the CERES-I, ERBE, and CSR, in order of increasing error, provide the most accurate instantaneous flux estimates, within 2-3 W/sq m of each other in reflected shortwave flux. The magnitude of this error is near the 10 W/sq m accuracy requirement of the user community. Longwave flux errors have been found to have the same space and time characteristics as errors in shortwave radiation, but only about 25% as large.

Stowe, Larry↗

Reconciling and Improving Formulations for Thermodynamics and Conservation Principles in Earth System Models (ESMs)

Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive derivation of the total energy equations for the atmospheric components of Earth System Models (ESMs). The assumptions and approximations made in this derivation are motivated and discussed. In particular, it is emphasized that closing the energy budget is conceptually challenging and hard to achieve in practice without resorting to ad hoc fixers. As a concrete example, the energy budget terms are diagnosed in a realistic climate simulation using a global atmosphere model. The largest total energy errors in this example are spurious dynamical core energy dissipation, thermodynamic inconsistencies (e.g., coupling parameterizations with the host model) and missing processes/terms associated with falling precipitation and evaporation (e.g., enthalpy flux between components). The latter two errors are not, in general, reduced by increasing horizontal resolution. They are due to incomplete thermodynamic and dynamic formulations. Future research directions are proposed to reconcile and improve thermodynamics formulations and conservation principles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source strength verification and quality assurance of preloaded brachytherapy needles using a CMOS flat panel detector

Purpose: Current methods of low dose rate brachytherapy source strength verification for sources preloaded into needles consist of either assaying a small number of seeds from a separate sample belonging to the same lot used to load the needles or performing batch assays of a subset of the preloaded seed trains. Both of these methods are cumbersome and have the limitations inherent to sampling. The purpose of this work was to investigate an alternative approach that uses an image-based, autoradiographic system capable of the rapid and complete assay of all sources without compromising sterility. Methods: The system consists of a flat panel image detector, an autoclavable needle holder, and software to analyze the detected signals. The needle holder was designed to maintain a fixed vertical spacing between the needles and the image detector, and to collimate the emissions from each seed. It also provides a sterile barrier between the needles and the imager. The image detector has a sufficiently large image capture area to allow several needles to be analyzed simultaneously.Several tests were performed to assess the accuracy and reproducibility of source strengths obtained using this system. Three different seed models (Oncura 6711 and 9011 {sup 125}I seeds, and IsoAid Advantage {sup 103}Pd seeds) were used in the evaluations. Seeds were loaded into trains with at least 1 cm spacing. Results: Using our system, it was possible to obtain linear calibration curves with coverage factor k = 1 prediction intervals of less than ±2% near the centre of their range for the three source models. The uncertainty budget calculated from a combination of type A and type B estimates of potential sources of error was somewhat larger, yielding (k = 1) combined uncertainties for individual seed readings of 6.2% for {sup 125}I 6711 seeds, 4.7% for {sup 125}I 9011 seeds, and 11.0% for Advantage {sup 103}Pd seeds. Conclusions: This study showed that a flat panel detector dosimetry system is a viable option for source strength verification in preloaded needles, as it is capable of measuring all of the sources intended for implantation. Such a system has the potential to directly and efficiently estimate individual source strengths, the overall mean source strength, and the positions within the seed-spacer train.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The effects of seasonal and latitudinal earth infrared radiance variations on ERBS attitude control

Analysis performed in the Flight Dynamics Facility by the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) Attitude Determination Support team illustrates the pitch attitude control motion and roll attitude errors induced by Earth infrared (IR) horizon radiance variations. IR scanner and inertial reference unit (IRU) pitch and roll flight data spanning 4 years of the ERBS mission are analyzed to illustrate the changes in the magnitude of the errors on time scales of the orbital period, months, and seasons. The analysis represents a unique opportunity to compare prelaunch estimates of radiance-induced attitude errors with flight measurements. As a consequence of this work the following additional information is obtained: an assessment of an average model of these errors and its standard deviation, a measurement to determine and verify previously proposed corrections to the current Earth IR radiance data base, and the possibility of a mean motion model derived from flight data in place of IRU data for ERBS fine attitude determination.

Phenneger, M. C.↗