Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Task Decomposition in Human Reliability Analysis

In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down— defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

error of commission↗
DOE OSTI2025

Economic Analysis of Battery Energy Storage Systems Incorporating Uncertain Battery Model

A high-fidelity battery model is essential for precise economic analysis of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), but these models are computationally intensive. Heuristic models offer computational efficiency but compromise the accuracy of economic analysis results. We assess the impact of errors in heuristic battery models on economic analysis by utilizing open-circuit voltage (OCV) measurements from battery experiments.

Choi, Hyungjin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗
DOE OSTI2023

Criterion validity of wrist accelerometry for assessing energy intake via the intake-balance technique

Background: Intake-balance assessments measure energy intake (EI) by summing energy expenditure (EE) with concurrent change in energy storage (ΔES). Prior work has not examined the validity of such calculations when EE is estimated via open-source techniques for research-grade accelerometry devices. The purpose of this study was to test the criterion validity of accelerometry-based intake-balance methods for a wrist-worn ActiGraph device. Methods: Healthy adults (n = 24) completed two 14-day measurement periods while wearing an ActiGraph accelerometer on the non-dominant wrist. During each period, criterion values of EI were determined based on ΔES measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry and EE measured by doubly labeled water. A total of 11 prediction methods were tested, 8 derived from the accelerometer and 3 from non-accelerometry methods (e.g., diet recall; included for comparison). Group-level validity was assessed through mean bias, while individual-level validity was assessed through mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and Bland–Altman analysis. Results: Mean bias for the three best accelerometry-based methods ranged from -167 to 124 kcal/day, versus -104 to 134 kcal/day for the non-accelerometry-based methods. The same three accelerometry-based methods had mean absolute error of 323–362 kcal/day and mean absolute percentage error of 18.1-19.3%, versus 353–464 kcal/day and 19.5-24.4% for the non-accelerometry-based methods. All 11 methods demonstrated systematic bias in the Bland–Altman analysis. Conclusions: Accelerometry-based intake-balance methods have promise for advancing EI assessment, but ongoing refinement is necessary. We provide an R package to facilitate implementation and refinement of accelerometry-based methods in future research (see paulhibbing.com/IntakeBalance).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Legendre spectral quadrature tau method for the multi-term time-fractional diffusion equations

In this study, a Legendre spectral tau method is revisited to handle the multi-term time-fractional diffusion equations (MTT-FDEs). An error estimate and rigorous convergence analysis are carried out using some critical theorems. The applicability and accuracy of the solution method are demonstrated by a numerical example to verify the theoretical analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Physics-based statistical learning approach to mesoscopic model selection

In materials science and many other research areas, models are frequently inferred without considering their generalization to unseen data. Here, we apply statistical learning using cross-validation to obtain an optimally predictive coarse-grained description of a two-dimensional kinetic nearest-neighbor Ising model with Glauber dynamics (GD) based on the stochastic Ginzburg-Landau equation (sGLE). The latter is learned from GD “training” data using a log-likelihood analysis, and its predictive ability for various complexities of the model is tested on GD “test” data independent of the data used to train the model on. Using two different error metrics, we perform a detailed analysis of the error between magnetization time trajectories simulated using the learned sGLE coarse-grained description and those obtained using the GD model. We show that both for equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium GD training trajectories, the standard phenomenological description using a quartic free energy does not always yield the most predictive coarse-grained model. Moreover, increasing the amount of training data can shift the optimal model complexity to higher values. Our results are promising in that they pave the way for the use of statistical learning as a general tool for materials modeling and discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prospects for Measuring Abundances of >20 Elements with Low-resolution Stellar Spectra

Understanding the evolution of the Milky Way calls for the precise abundance determination of many elements in many stars. A common perception is that deriving more than a few elemental abundances ([Fe/H], [ α /Fe], perhaps [C/H], [N/H]) requires medium-to-high spectral resolution, R ≳ 10,000, mostly to overcome the effects of line blending. In a recent work, we presented an efficient and practical way to model the full stellar spectrum, even when fitting a large number of stellar labels simultaneously. In this paper, we quantify to what precision the abundances of many different elements can be recovered, as a function of spectroscopic resolution and wavelength range. In the limit of perfect spectral models and spectral normalization, we show that the precision of elemental abundances is nearly independent of resolution, for a fixed exposure time and number of detector pixels; low-resolution spectra simply afford much higher S/N per pixel and generally larger wavelength range in a single setting. We also show that estimates of most stellar labels are not strongly correlated with one another once R ≳ 1000. Modest errors in the line-spread function, as well as small radial velocity errors, do not affect these conclusions, and data-driven models indicate that spectral (continuum) normalization can be achieved well enough in practice. These results, to be confirmed with an analysis of observed low-resolution data, open up new possibilities for the design of large spectroscopic stellar surveys and for the reanalysis of archival low-resolution data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Top-down and bottom-up definitions of human failure events in human reliability analysis

In the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question is crucial, however, as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PRAs tend to be top-down—defined as a subset of the PRA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) often tend to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2014

One Size Does Not Fit All: Human Failure Event Decomposition and Task Analysis

In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered or exacerbated by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down—defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications. In this paper, I first review top-down and bottom-up approaches for defining HFEs and then present a seven-step guideline to ensure a task analysis completed as part of human error identification decomposes to a level suitable for use as HFEs. This guideline illustrates an effective way to bridge the bottom-up approach with top-down requirements.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Assessment of Receiver Algorithms for Distributed Massive MIMO Systems: Investigating Design Solutions and Performance

This study investigates receiver design solutions for distributed Massive Multiple Input Multiple Output (D-m MIMO) systems, taking into account parameters such as number of access points as well as concerns related to channel estimates that use single-carrier frequency-domain equalization (SC-FDE). A significant contribution of this research is the integration of Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) codes to simplify coding complexity and enhance communication efficiency. The research examines different receiver designs, such as spatial antenna correlation and sophisticated channel estimation methods. The authors propose integrating LDPC codes into the receiver architecture to simplify computations and enhance error correction and decoding. Moreover, the paper examines performance evaluation measures and approaches, highlighting the trade-offs among complexity, spectral efficiency, and error performance. The comparative analysis indicates the benefits, in terms of performance, of incorporating LDPC codes and improving system throughput and dependability. We examine four distinct receiver algorithms: zero-forcing (ZF), minimum mean square error (MMSE), maximum ratio combining (MRC), and equal gain combining (EGC). The study shows that MRC and EGC receivers work well in D-m MIMO because they make the receiver system less computationally demanding.

Gashtasbi, Ali↗
DOE OSTI2023

First test of the consistency relation for the large-scale structure using the anisotropic three-point correlation function of BOSS DR12 galaxies

ABSTRACT We present, for the first time, an observational test of the consistency relation for the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe through a joint analysis of the anisotropic two- and three-point correlation functions (2PCF and 3PCF) of galaxies. We parameterize the breakdown of the LSS consistency relation in the squeezed limit by Es, which represents the ratio of the coefficients of the shift terms in the second-order density and velocity fluctuations. Es ≠ 1 is a sufficient condition under which the LSS consistency relation is violated. A novel aspect of this work is that we constrain Es by obtaining information about the non-linear velocity field from the quadrupole component of the 3PCF without taking the squeezed limit. Using the galaxy catalogues in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) Data Release 12, we obtain $E_{\rm s} = -0.92_{-3.26}^{+3.13}$, indicating that there is no violation of the LSS consistency relation in our analysis within the statistical errors. Our parameterization is general enough that our constraint can be applied to a wide range of theories, such as multicomponent fluids, modified gravity theories, and their associated galaxy bias effects. Our analysis opens a new observational window to test the fundamental physics using the anisotropic higher-order correlation functions of galaxy clustering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Flat gain C + L band using optical amplifiers for 200 × 14 Gbps DWDM system

This paper has shown the analysis of 200 channels dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) system with the data rate of 14 Gbps for attaining the flat gain for the channel spectrum from 1520 to 1640 nm. Analysis has also extended with the power amplification of erbium–ytterbium co-doped optical amplifier (EYBCDOWA) and Raman optical amplifier for the transmission distance of 120 km to mitigate the effect of crosstalk and bit error rate (BER). Final analysis has also recommended that this proposed system is capable to deliver the flat gain of 19.5 dB with minor variation of 0.95 dB to maintain the acceptable dense communication for long distance.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Basic properties of eutectic chloride salts NaCl-KCl-ZnCl 2 and NaCl-KCl-MgCl 2 as HTFs and thermal storage media measured using simultaneous DSC-TGA

Concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies tend to work at high temperatures for better energy efficiency, which need high temperature heat transfer fluids (HTF) and thermal storage. A good HTF should have low melting point and be thermally stable at high temperatures. A thermal storage medium needs a high heat capacity in order to store more energy in per unit of mass or volume. The objective of this work is to study the basic thermophysical properties of several eutectic molten salts for HTF and thermal storage media, which can work at upper limit temperatures of 850 °C. The eutectic salts are mixtures by NaCl-KCl-ZnCl 2 , and by NaCl-KCl-MgCl 2 , respectively. The heat capacity, melting point, and heat of fusion of the eutectic salts at different temperatures were measured using Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermal Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) simultaneously. Details of the measurements and obtained experience of operating the equipment are provided in the work. For each of the eutectic salts multiple samples were tested to check repeatability and to minimize random errors. Finally, in theoretical analysis, mixing rules from literature was used to estimate the heat capacity of the new HTFs, which showed good agreement with experimental data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kβ X-ray Emission Spectra Analysis Using Bayesian Optimization

The Kβ X-ray emission spectrum of 3 d transition metals is rich with electronic and structural information due to strong exchange interactions with the valence shell of the metal, and has become crucial for understanding their spin and oxidation states. The spectrum is commonly treated using crystal-field multiplet theory, a semi-empirical theory that uses tunable parameters to control the strength of the effects present in X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES). However, determining the experimental values of these parameters remains a challenge. We present a methodology that applies Bayesian optimization to crystal-field multiplet theory to determine parameter values. The algorithm is tested on the X-ray emission spectra of a collection of Mn, Co, and Ni oxides. We are able to find optimal values for the four most impactful parameters: Slater−Condon reduction factors F dd , F pd , and G pd , and crystal field splitting 10 Dq . The algorithm produces significantly improved accuracy compared to current analysis methods, and probes interparameter dependencies by modeling the error landscape. This advancement enhances XES analysis by offering an approach of obtaining quantitative electronic structural information on 3 d transition metal valence shells, facilitating applications across various scientific fields.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing Reconstruction and Parameter Estimation with SPTpol Data

Here, we perform the first simultaneous Bayesian parameter inference and optimal reconstruction of the gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), using 100 deg 2 of polarization observations from the SPTpol receiver on the South Pole Telescope. These data reach noise levels as low as 5.8 μK arcmin in polarization, which are low enough that the typically used quadratic estimator (QE) technique for analyzing CMB lensing is significantly suboptimal. Conversely, the Bayesian procedure extracts all lensing information from the data and is optimal at any noise level. We infer the amplitude of the gravitational lensing potential to be ${A}_{\phi }=0.949\,\pm \,0.122$ using the Bayesian pipeline, consistent with our QE pipeline result, but with 17% smaller error bars. The Bayesian analysis also provides a simple way to account for systematic uncertainties, performing a similar job as frequentist "bias hardening" or linear bias correction, and reducing the systematic uncertainty on A Φ due to polarization calibration from almost half of the statistical error to effectively zero. Finally, we jointly constrain A Φ along with A L , the amplitude of lensing-like effects on the CMB power spectra, demonstrating that the Bayesian method can be used to easily infer parameters both from an optimal lensing reconstruction and from the delensed CMB, while exactly accounting for the correlation between the two. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the Bayesian approach on real data, and pave the way for future analysis of deep CMB polarization measurements with SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, and CMB-S4, where improvements relative to the QE can reach 1.5 times tighter constraints on A Φ and seven times lower effective lensing reconstruction noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Error performance enhancement of satellite to earth FSO downlink employing hybrid subcarrier intensity modulation scheme with aperture averaging technique

In this work, we have evaluated the bit error rate (BER) of free space optical downlink using hybrid-subcarrier-intensity-modulation (hybrid-SIM) scheme. Also, we have employed the aperture averaging technique for the improvement of its error performance. The required BER analysis has been performed over the gamma–gamma channel model with the scintillation effects. The BER analysis is simplified using Meijer-G function and it is simulated in MATLAB. The simulation results show that the improvement in error performance is observed by hybrid-SIM technique compared to other modulation schemes like PPM and BPSK-SIM and also the BER improves significantly with the increase of aperture size due to the aperture averaging effect.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

REPEATABILITY AND ACCURACY OF EXOPLANET ECLIPSE DEPTHS MEASURED WITH POST-CRYOGENIC SPITZER

We examine the repeatability, reliability, and accuracy of differential exoplanet eclipse depth measurements made using the InfraRed Array Camera (IRAC) on the Spitzer Space Telescope during the post-cryogenic mission. We have re-analyzed an existing 4.5 μ m data set, consisting of 10 observations of the XO-3b system during secondary eclipse, using seven different techniques for removing correlated noise. We find that, on average, for a given technique, the eclipse depth estimate is repeatable from epoch to epoch to within 156 parts per million (ppm). Most techniques derive eclipse depths that do not vary by more than a factor 3 of the photon noise limit. All methods but one accurately assess their own errors: for these methods, the individual measurement uncertainties are comparable to the scatter in eclipse depths over the 10 epoch sample. To assess the accuracy of the techniques as well as to clarify the difference between instrumental and other sources of measurement error, we have also analyzed a simulated data set of 10 visits to XO-3b, for which the eclipse depth is known. We find that three of the methods (BLISS mapping, Pixel Level Decorrelation, and Independent Component Analysis) obtain results that are within three times the photon limit of the true eclipse depth. When averaged over the 10 epoch ensemble, 5 out of 7 techniques come within 60 ppm of the true value. Spitzer exoplanet data, if obtained following current best practices and reduced using methods such as those described here, can measure repeatable and accurate single eclipse depths, with close to photon-limited results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗