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At least 505 records · Page 28

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗

State-level suicide mortality insights: a comparative study of VHA veterans and the whole US population

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US Comparative State-level spatial analysis between Veterans Health Administration (VHA veterans) and the whole US population can reveal differences in conditions for targeted interventions and intricate geographical patterns. Methods: The study population contains 2018 and 2019 suicide deaths of VHA veterans and the whole US population. They were used to calculate state-level rates. States were classified by whether their VHA veteran and whole US population rates were above or below respective mean rates. Local Moran’s I was leveraged to examine spatial autocorrelation. Results: State-level suicide mortality rates and disparities among states were generally higher for VHA veterans (2018: 37.3 ± 7.2; 2019: 46.8 ± 8.3) than for the whole US population (2018: 16.6 ± 4.3; 2019: 16.4 ± 4.4). For both populations, there were statistically significant clusters with high suicide rates. Over one-fourth of states demonstrated inverse relationships, with rates above mean for one group but below for other. VHA veterans are at higher risk with over one-third of states had greater than average veteran suicide risk ratio. Conclusions: VHA veterans are at higher risk than the whole population across all states. Mortality disparities among states and clusters of states with high and low rates suggest targeted interventions and cooperative health strategies may help address these differences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spatial and temporal coevolution of N2 neuraminidase and H1 and H3 hemagglutinin genes of influenza A virus in US swine

Abstract The neuraminidase (NA) and hemagglutinin (HA) are essential surface glycoproteins of influenza A virus (IAV). In this study, the evolution of subtype N2 NA paired with H1 and H3 subtype HA in swine was evaluated to understand if the genetic diversity of HA and NA were linked. Using time-scaled Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, the relationships of paired swine N2 with H1 or H3 from 2009 to 2018 were evaluated. These data demonstrated increased relative genetic diversity within the major N2 clades circulating in swine in the USA (N2.1998 between 2014 and 2017 and N2.2002 between 2010 and 2016). Preferential pairing was observed among specific NA and HA genetic clades. Gene reassortment between cocirculating influenza A strains resulted in novel pairings that persisted. The changes in genetic diversity in the NA gene were quantified using Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, and increases in diversity were observed subsequent to novel NA–HA reassortment events. The rate of evolution among NA–N2 clades and HA–H1 and HA–H3 clades were similar. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses demonstrated strong spatial patterns in N2 genetic diversity, but frequent interstate movement of rare N2 clades provided opportunity for reassortment and emergence of new N2–HA pairings. The frequent regional movement of pigs and their influenza viruses is an explanation for the documented patterns of reassortment and subsequent changes in gene diversity. The reassortment and evolution of NA and linked HA evolution may result in antigenic drift of both major surface glycoproteins, reducing vaccine efficacy, with subsequent impact on animal health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Including frameworks of public health ethics in computational modelling of infectious disease interventions

Decisions on public health interventions to control infectious diseases are often informed by computational models. Interpreting the predicted outcomes of a public health decision requires not only high-quality modelling but also an ethical framework for assessing the benefits and harms associated with different options. The design and specification of ethical frameworks matured independently of computational modelling, so many values recognized as important for ethical decision-making are missing from computational models. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach to incorporate multiple public health values into the evaluation of a simple computational model for vaccination against a pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2. By examining a bounded space of alternative prioritizations of three values relevant to public health ethics (aggregate clinical burden, equity in clinical burden, equity in adverse effects from vaccination), we identify value trade-offs, where the outcomes of optimal strategies differ depending on the ethical framework. This work demonstrates an approach to incorporating diverse values into decision criteria used to evaluate outcomes of models of infectious disease interventions.

"Mathematical Biology"↗

Ethical considerations in infectious disease modelling for public health policy: the case of school closures

Mathematical models of infectious diseases are frequently used as a tool to support public health policy and decisions around the implementation of interventions such as school closures. However, most publications on policy-relevant modelling lack an ethical framework and do not explicitly consider the ethical implications of the work. This creates a risk that the unintended consequences of interventions are overlooked or that models are used to justify decisions that are inconsistent with public health ethics. In this article, we focus on the case study of school closures as a commonly modelled intervention against pandemic influenza, COVID-19 and other infectious disease threats. We briefly review some of the key concepts in public health ethics and describe approaches to modelling the effects of school closures. We then identify a series of ethical considerations involved in modelling school closures. These include accounting for population heterogeneity and inequalities; including a diversity of viewpoints and expertise in model design; considering the distribution of benefits and harms; and model transparency and contextualization. Furthermore, we conclude with some recommendations to ensure that policy-relevant modelling is consistent with some key ethics values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Genomic analysis of 1710 surveillance-based Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from the USA in 2019 identifies predominant strain types and chromosomal antimicrobial-resistance determinants

This study characterized high-quality whole-genome sequences of a sentinel, surveillance-based collection of 1710 Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) isolates from 2019 collected in the USA as part of the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP). It aims to provide a detailed report of strain diversity, phylogenetic relationships and resistance determinant profiles associated with reduced susceptibilities to antibiotics of concern. The 1710 isolates represented 164 multilocus sequence types and 21 predominant phylogenetic clades. Common genomic determinants defined most strains’ phenotypic, reduced susceptibility to current and historic antibiotics (e.g. bla TEM plasmid for penicillin, tetM plasmid for tetracycline, gyrA for ciprofloxacin, 23S rRNA and/or mosaic mtr operon for azithromycin, and mosaic penA for cefixime and ceftriaxone). The most predominant phylogenetic clade accounted for 21 % of the isolates, included a majority of the isolates with low-level elevated MICs to azithromycin (2.0 µg ml –1 ), carried a mosaic mtr operon and variants in PorB, and showed expansion with respect to data previously reported from 2018. The second largest clade predominantly carried the GyrA S91F variant, was largely ciprofloxacin resistant (MIC ≥1.0 µg ml –1 ), and showed significant expansion with respect to 2018. Overall, a low proportion of isolates had medium- to high-level elevated MIC to azithromycin ((≥4.0 µg ml –1 ), based on C2611T or A2059G 23S rRNA variants). One isolate carried the penA 60.001 allele resulting in elevated MICs to cefixime and ceftriaxone of 1.0 µg ml –1 . This high-resolution snapshot of genetic profiles of 1710 GC sequences, through a comparison with 2018 data (1479 GC sequences) within the sentinel system, highlights change in proportions and expansion of select GC strains and the associated genetic mechanisms of resistance. The knowledge gained through molecular surveillance may support rapid identification of outbreaks of concern. Continued monitoring may inform public health responses to limit the development and spread of antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea.

(3-6) antimicrobial resistance↗

Genomic analysis of Klebsiella aerogenes circulating in New Mexico

Klebsiella aerogenes is an opportunistic pathogen and a growing cause of healthcare-associated infections, characterized by multidrug resistance and the emergence of global high-risk clones. However, regional genomic surveillance data remain limited. Here, we sought to characterize the population structure, transmission dynamics and resistance mechanisms of clinical K. aerogenes in Albuquerque, New Mexico. We sequenced 177 clinical isolates collected between 2021 and 2023. We also developed a novel, species-specific PopPUNK database to facilitate rapid, high-resolution typing. The New Mexico K. aerogenes population was diverse but dominated by two global pandemic lineages, ST93 (47.5%) and ST4 (7.9%), which were significantly enriched for the virulence factors yersiniabactin and colibactin. Genomic evidence for recent local transmission was rare, with only four putative transmission pairs identified. The resistome was characterized by intrinsic and adaptive mutations. Nearly all isolates possessed gyrA mutations associated with decreased fluoroquinolone susceptibility. Mutations in the AmpC regulator AmpD and the outer membrane porin Omp36 were common, particularly within the dominant ST93 lineage. These mutations have been associated with increased AmpC-mediated carbapenem resistance. Our findings underscore the critical importance of genomic surveillance to monitor the transmission and evolution of adaptive resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Salmonella enterica Isolated from a Mixed-Use Watershed in Georgia, USA: Antimicrobial Resistance, Serotype Diversity, and Genetic Relatedness to Human Isolates

As the cases of Salmonella enterica infections associated with contaminated water are increasing, this study was conducted to address the role of surface water as a reservoir of S. enterica serotypes. We sampled rivers and streams (n = 688) over a 3-year period (2015 to 2017) in a mixed-use watershed in Georgia, USA, and 70.2% of the total stream samples tested positive for Salmonella. A total of 1,190 isolates were recovered and characterized by serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). A wide range of serotypes was identified, including those commonly associated with humans and animals, with S. enterica serotype Muenchen being predominant (22.7%) and each serotype exhibiting a high degree of strain diversity by PFGE. About half (46.1%) of the isolates had PFGE patterns indistinguishable from those of human clinical isolates in the CDC PulseNet database. A total of 52 isolates (4.4%) were resistant to antimicrobials, out of which 43 isolates were multidrug resistant (MDR; resistance to two or more classes of antimicrobials). These 52 resistant Salmonella isolates were screened for the presence of antimicrobial resistance genes, plasmid replicons, and class 1 integrons, out of which four representative MDR isolates were selected for whole-genome sequencing analysis. The results showed that 28 MDR isolates resistant to 10 antimicrobials had blacmy-2 on an A/C plasmid. Persistent contamination of surface water with a high diversity of Salmonella strains, some of which are drug resistant and genetically indistinguishable from human isolates, supports a role of environmental surface water as a reservoir for and transmission route of this pathogen.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Genetic and Antigenic Characterization of an Expanding H3 Influenza A Virus Clade in U.S. Swine Visualized by Nextstrain

Defining factors that influence spatial and temporal patterns of influenza A virus (IAV) is essential to inform vaccine strain selection and strategies to reduce the spread of potentially zoonotic swine-origin IAV. The relative frequency of detection of the H3 phylogenetic clade 1990.4.a (colloquially known as C-IVA) in U.S. swine declined to 7% in 2017 but increased to 32% in 2019. We conducted phylogenetic and phenotypic analyses to determine putative mechanisms associated with increased detection. We created an implementation of Nextstrain to visualize the emergence, spatial spread, and genetic evolution of H3 IAV in swine, identifying two C-IVA clades that emerged in 2017 and cocirculated in multiple U.S. states. Phylodynamic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene documented low relative genetic diversity from 2017 to 2019, suggesting clonal expansion. The major H3 C-IVA clade contained an N156H amino acid substitution, but hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays demonstrated no significant antigenic drift. The minor HA clade was paired with the neuraminidase (NA) clade N2-2002B prior to 2016 but acquired and maintained an N2-2002A in 2016, resulting in a loss of antigenic cross-reactivity between N2-2002B- and -2002A-containing H3N2 strains. The major C-IVA clade viruses acquired a nucleoprotein (NP) of the H1N1pdm09 lineage through reassortment in the replacement of the North American swine-lineage NP. Instead of genetic or antigenic diversity within the C-IVA HA, our data suggest that population immunity to H3 2010.1 along with the antigenic diversity of the NA and the acquisition of the H1N1pdm09 NP gene likely explain the reemergence and transmission of C-IVA H3N2 in swine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Longitudinal Changes in Immune Activation Serum Biomarkers Prior to Diagnosis and Risk of B-cell NHL Subtypes

To examine the contribution of B-cell activation molecules to B-cell follicular lymphoma (FL) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), a prospective study was conducted using pre-diagnosis serial serum samples from the US Department of Defense Serum Repository. Each case (n = 142 FL, n = 211 DLBCL) was matched to two controls on age, gender, race, military branch, and blood collection dates. Immune activation molecules (IL1β, IL2, IL4, IL5, IL6, IL10, IL12, CXCL13, IL8, TNFα, IFNγ, GM-CSF, VEGF, sCD30, IgE) were quantified using ELISA or multiplex immunometric (Luminex) assay. Longitudinal data were analyzed using linear mixed modeling. As serial specimens were collected over several years before diagnosis, we evaluated the temporal dynamics of these markers. Increased serum levels of sCD30, CXCL13, and to a lesser extent IL10, were associated with both FL and DLBCL in cases compared with controls, with a median follow-up of 5.5 years from the earliest specimen collection to diagnosis date. Significant increasing sCD30 and CXCL13 trajectories for FL and DLBCL subtypes were noted starting at the earliest time points and with IL10 levels increasing significantly at time points closer to diagnosis. In conclusion, these results suggest that sCD30, CXCL13, and IL10 may contribute to the etiology of FL and DLBCL and are potential biomarkers for these non–Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes. The increasing trajectories of the B-cell activation molecules, sCD30, CXCL13, and to a lesser extent IL10, may indicate early disease-induced effects or reflect the chronic stimulation of B-cells that promotes the development of FL and DLBCL subtypes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reliability, stability during long-term storage, and intra-individual variation of circulating levels of osteopontin, osteoprotegerin, vascular endothelial growth factor-A, and interleukin-17A

Background: Studies in many populations have reported associations between circulating cytokine levels and various physiological or pathological conditions. However, the reliability of cytokine measurements in population studies, which measure cytokines in multiple assays over a prolonged period, has not been adequately examined; nor has stability during sample storage or intra-individual variation been assessed. Methods: We assessed (1) analytical reliability in short- and long-term repeated measurements; (2) stability and analytical reliability during long-term sample storage, and (3) variability within individuals over seasons, of four cytokines—osteopontin (OPN), osteoprotegerin (OPG), vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A), and interleukin-17A (IL-17A). Measurements in plasma or serum samples were made with commercial kits according to standard procedures. Estimation was performed by fitting a random or mixed effects linear model on the log scale. Results: In repeated assays over a short period, OPN, OPG, and VEGF-A had acceptable reliability, with intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CV) less than 0.11. Reliability of IL-17A was poor, with inter- and intra-assay CV 0.85 and 0.43, respectively. During long-term storage, OPG significantly decayed (-33% per year; 95% confidence interval [-54, -3.7]), but not OPN or VEGF-A (-0.3% or -6.3% per year, respectively). Intra- and inter-assay CV over a long period were comparable to that in a short period except for a slight increase in inter-assay CV of VEGF-A. Within-individual variation was small for OPN and VEGF-A, with intra-class correlations (ICC) 0.68 and 0.83, respectively, but large for OPG (ICC 0.11). Conclusions: We conclude that OPN and VEGF-A can be reliably measured in a large population, that IL-17A is suitable only for small experiments, and that OPG should be assessed with caution due to degradation during storage and intra-individual variation. The overall results of our study illustrate the need for validation under relevant conditions when measuring circulating cytokines in population studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Hierarchical effects facilitate spreading processes on synthetic and empirical multilayer networks

In this paper we consider the effects of corporate hierarchies on innovation spread across multilayer networks, modeled by an elaborated SIR framework. We show that the addition of management layers can significantly improve spreading processes on both random geometric graphs and empirical corporate networks. Additionally, we show that utilizing a more centralized working relationship network rather than a strict administrative network further increases overall innovation reach. In fact, this more centralized structure in conjunction with management layers is essential to both reaching a plurality of nodes and creating a stable adopted community in the long time horizon. Further, we show that the selection of seed nodes affects the final stability of the adopted community, and while the most influential nodes often produce the highest peak adoption, this is not always the case. In some circumstances, seeding nodes near but not in the highest positions in the graph produces larger peak adoption and more stable long-time adoption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗