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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agilent AgileBioFoundry CRADA (Final Report)

The mission of this CRADA with Agilent was to couple powerful MS platforms (QQQ, IM-QTOF-MS) with Agilent’s novel Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (UHPLC) fast metabolomic workflows and perform ABF Machine Learning (ML) to generated datasets. Agilent transferred UHPLC methods to PNNL and LBNL and methods were implemented and demonstrated in both labs, achieving total acquisition times of < 10 min. Metabolites analyzed using Agilent’s shared methods included metabolites from central carbon metabolism, common across hosts, and metabolites unique to engineered strains. Standards were acquired in an UHPLC-Drift Tube Ion Mobility Mass Spectrometer (DTIMS) system for the first time within the context of ABF and methods were optimized based on Agilent’s protocols. Samples from ABF hosts Pseudomonas putida, Aspergillus pseudoterreus, Aspergillus niger and Rhodosporidium toruloides were analyzed using the UHPLC-DTIMS platform for a total of 276 runs. A data analysis workflow compatible with the Experimental Data Depot (EDD) and completely shareable was developed for the acquired UHPLC-DTIMS data. Samples were analyzed using a Data Independent Acquisition Approach (DIA), which for most of the standards provided more transitions therefore increasing detection confidence. Using the data acquired by PNNL, LBNL, and Agilent’s specifications from previous ML projects, SNL applied an ensemble ML strategy to pick the best performing model for automated LC-method selection. Finally, with the contribution of the participant labs and Agilent, SNL developed an Automated Method Selection (AMS) software tool to predict the best liquid chromatography method for analysis of any new molecules of interest. Samples with novel pathways and new metabolite targets of interest are generated at a high pace in the ABF. Therefore, our accomplishment in this CRADA improved the efficiency and accuracy of strain testing by developing and implementing fast analytical methods, robust processing tools, and software for predicting the best methods for UHPLC analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development and implementation of high-throughput proteomic and metabolomics assays by using advanced chromatographic and mass spectrometric systems (CRADA Final Report)

The mission of this CRADA with Agilent was to couple powerful MS platforms (QQQ, IM-QTOFMS) with Agilent’s novel Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (UHPLC) fast metabolomic workflows and perform ABF Machine Learning (ML) to generated datasets. Agilent transferred UHPLC methods to PNNL and LBNL and methods were implemented and demonstrated in both labs, achieving total acquisition times of < 10 min. Metabolites analyzed using Agilent’s shared methods included metabolites from central carbon metabolism, common across hosts, and metabolites unique to engineered strains. Standards were acquired in an UHPLC-Drift Tube Ion Mobility Mass Spectrometer (DTIMS) system for the first time within the context of ABF and methods were optimized based on Agilent’s protocols. Samples from ABF hosts Pseudomonas putida, Aspergillus pseudoterreus, Aspergillus niger and Rhodosporidium toruloides were analyzed using the UHPLC-DTIMS platform for a total of 276 runs. A data analysis workflow compatible with the Experimental Data Depot (EDD) and completely shareable was developed for the acquired UHPLC-DTIMS data. Samples were analyzed using a Data Independent Acquisition Approach (DIA), which for most of the standards provided more transitions therefore increasing detection confidence. Using the data acquired by PNNL, LBNL, and Agilent’s specifications from previous ML projects, SNL applied an ensemble ML strategy to pick the best performing model for automated LC-method selection. Finally, with the contribution of the participant labs and Agilent, SNL developed an Automated Method Selection (AMS) software tool to predict the best liquid chromatography method for analysis of any new molecules of interest. Samples with novel pathways and new metabolite targets of interest are generated at a high pace in the ABF. Overall, the project advanced rapid metabolomics by combining liquid chromatography, ion mobility spectrometry, and data-independent mass spectrometry with machine learning. This multidimensional approach uses retention time, collision cross-section, precursor mass, and fragment-ion information to distinguish chemically similar metabolites that can be difficult to resolve using conventional liquid- or gas-chromatography methods. The resulting workflow also provided automated metabolite-identification error estimates, addressing a recognized need for statistical confidence measures in metabolomics.

Petzold, Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Consequences of the failure of equipartition for the p – V behavior of liquid water and the hydration free energy components of a small protein

Earlier we showed that in the molecular dynamics simulation of a rigid model of water it is necessary to use an integration time-step δ t ≤ 0.5 fs to ensure equipartition between translational and rotational modes. Here we extend that study in the NVT ensemble to NpT conditions and to an aqueous protein. We study neat liquid water with the rigid, SPC/E model and the protein BBA (PDB ID: 1FME) solvated in the rigid, TIP3P model. We examine integration time-steps ranging from 0.5 fs to 4.0 fs for various thermostat plus barostat combinations. We find that a small δ t is necessary to ensure consistent prediction of the simulation volume. Hydrogen mass repartitioning alleviates the problem somewhat, but is ineffective for the typical time-step used with this approach. The compressibility, a measure of volume fluctuations, and the dielectric constant, a measure of dipole moment fluctuations, are also seen to be sensitive to δ t . Using the mean volume estimated from the NpT simulation, we examine the electrostatic and van der Waals contribution to the hydration free energy of the protein in the NVT ensemble. These contributions are also sensitive to δ t . In going from δ t = 2 fs to δ t = 0.5 fs, the change in the net electrostatic plus van der Waals contribution to the hydration of BBA is already in excess of the folding free energy reported for this protein.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interactions of πK, ππK and KKπ systems at maximal isospin from lattice QCD

We study the interactions of systems of two and three nondegenerate mesons composed of pions and kaons at maximal isospin using lattice QCD, specifically $π^+K^+, π^+π^+K^+$ and $K^+K^+π^+$. Utilizing the stochastic LapH method, we determine the spectrum of these systems on two CLS $N_f$ = 2 + 1 ensembles with pion masses of 200 MeV and 340 MeV, and include many levels in different momentum frames. We constrain the K matrices describing two- and three-particle interactions by fitting the spectrum to the results predicted by the finite-volume formalism, including up to p waves. This requires also results for the $π^+π^+$ and $K^+K^+$ spectrum, which have been obtained previously on the same configurations. We explore different fitting strategies, comparing fits to energy shifts with fits to energies boosted to the rest frame, and also comparing simultaneous global fits to all relevant two- and three-particle channels to those where we first fit twoparticle channels and then add in the three-particle information. We provide the first determination of the three-particle K matrix in $π^+π^+K^+$ and $K^+K^+π^+$ systems, finding statistically significant nonzero results in most cases. We include s and $\textit{p}$ waves in the K matrix for $π^+K^+$ scattering, finding evidence for an attractive p-wave scattering length. We compare our results to Chiral Perturbation Theory, including an investigation of the impact of discretization errors, for which we provide the leading order predictions obtained using Wilson Chiral Perturbation Theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data assimilation for combustion ignition delay time simulation using schlieren image velocimetry

This study sought to improve the accuracy of simulating spray penetration and combustion ignition delay by means of data assimilation (DA). The simulations were conducted using the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations and assimilating the schlieren image data. In DA, an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) was used to build the statistical model, making the simulation results more accurate without any change in the governing equations. Recognizing that the spray-cone injection angle has a large effect on penetration, we created ensemble members with different injection angles. And we applied the two-component velocity distribution calculated via SIV and updated both velocity and temperature by using a DA statistical model derived from RANS ensemble simulations. The ignition delay time is generally known to vary even under the same experimental conditions because it is influenced by many factors. In this study, we attempted the transient DA-assisted RANS simulation to predict the ignition delay time even when the temporal resolution and accuracy of the observation data ware insufficient. Our trials offer an example of how a combination of techniques can be effectively used to assimilate experimental data obtained under restricted conditions.

Combustion simulation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Long-Range Forces on the Transition States and Dynamics of NaCl Ion-Pair Dissociation in Water

We study NaCl ion-pair dissociation in a dilute aqueous solution using computer simulations both for the full system with long-range Coulomb interactions and for a well-chosen reference system with short-range intermolecular interactions. Analyzing results using concepts from Local Molecular Field (LMF) theory and the recently proposed AI-based analysis tool “State predictive information bottleneck” (SPIB), we show that the system with short-range interactions can accurately reproduce the transition rate for the dissociation process, the dynamics for moving between the underlying metastable states, and the transition state ensemble. Contributions from long-range interactions can be largely neglected for these processes because long-range forces from the direct interionic Coulomb interactions are almost completely canceled (>90%) by those from solvent interactions over the length scale where the transition takes place. Thus, for this important monovalent ion-pair system, short-range forces alone are able to capture detailed consequences of the collective solvent motion, allowing the use of physically suggestive and computationally efficient short-range models for the dissociation event. Here, we believe that the framework here should be applicable to disentangling mechanisms for more complex processes such as multivalent ion disassociation, where previous work has suggested that long-range contributions may be more important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond interpolation: Physics-inspired gating transformers for extrapolating irradiation conditions to novel nuclear fuels

The qualification of advanced nuclear fuels relies on irradiation experiments in test reactors that emulate commercial conditions. Designing these tests requires accurate prediction of key irradiation quantities, particularly heat generation rate and burnup, yet obtaining them typically involves computationally expensive multi-step simulation workflows. We propose a physics-inspired gating transformer (PIGT) that integrates an inverse-square, distance-based attenuation into the encoder representation to bias attention toward physically relevant spatial relationships while retaining data-driven flexibility. Using MiniFuel irradiation data from the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we benchmark against ensemble methods, feedforward and recurrent networks, convolutional models, and standard transformers. While baseline models perform well under interpolation, they exhibit a pronounced generalization gap when evaluated on fuels not included in the training set. The proposed model consistently improves extrapolative accuracy and stability, yielding the strongest performance on unseen fuel configurations. These results indicate that a lightweight physics structure embedded within attention mechanisms can substantially improve robustness, enabling more reliable surrogate predictions to accelerate the design of nuclear fuel irradiation experiments.

Fuel qualification↗
DOE OSTI2023

Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment

The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Scalable Real-Time Data Assimilation Framework for Predicting Turbulent Atmosphere Dynamics

AI-based foundation models like FourCastNet, GraphCast are revolutionizing weather and climate predictions but are not yet ready for operational use. Their limitation lies in the absence of a data assimilation system to incorporate real-time Earth system observations, crucial for accurately forecasting events like tropical cyclones. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce a generic real-time data assimilation framework and demonstrate its end-to-end performance on the Frontier supercomputer. This framework comprises two primary modules: an ensemble score filter (EnSF), which significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art data assimilation method, and a vision transformer-based surrogate capable of real-time adaptation through the integration of observational data. We demonstrate both the strong and weak scaling of our framework up to 1024 GPUs on the Exascale supercomputer, Frontier. Our results not only illustrate the framework's exceptional scalability on high-performance computing systems, but also demonstrate the importance of supercomputers in real-time data assimilation for weather and climate predictions.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Efficiency Solar-To-Fuel Photoelectrochemistry in Disordered Photonic Glass Electrodes (Final Technical Report)

This project investigated how photonic glass (PG) photoelectrodes—disordered arrangements of dielectric scatterers—can serve as scalable, tunable platforms for light trapping in photoelectrochemical (PEC) solar-to-fuel systems. By leveraging disorder-driven optical phenomena such as multiple scattering resonances and light localization, PG structures offer an alternative to conventional photonic crystals and inverse opals that require high structural precision. The scientific goals were to twofold: (1) develop approaches to predictive models for high performance PG electrodes based on light absorption simulations, and (2) fabricate, characterize, and optimize PG-based photoelectrodes for solar-to-hydrogen and solar-to-fuel photoelectrochemical applications. To overcome the complexity of ensemble optical simulations for disordered materials, the researchers developed a machine-learning-accelerated emulation of all configurations in the design space. With this approach, PG photoelectrodes based on a TiO2 semiconductor were designed to enhance PEC currents of up to one hundred times higher than the equivalent ultra-thin film photoanodes and several times higher than the equivalent photonic crystal. The research also explored integrated systems for electrochemical hydrogen production based on replacing water oxidation with the specific glycerol oxidation electrocatalysis. Overall, the project outlined an approach to a simple-to-fabricate photoelectrode system to drive photoelectrochemical reactions relevant to solar photochemical energy conversion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗