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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

A Total Factor Productivity Based Structure for Tactical Cluster Assessment: Empirical Investigation in the Airline Industry

In this paper we analyze and assess the efficiency of the United States (U.S.) airline industry through the total factor productivity (TFP) method. While airlines use various resources to produce a heterogeneous group of outputs, this article focuses on certain fundamental outputs as final products of selected airlines. The results from this analysis indicate that the national airlines (US. domestic carriers) have higher TFP as compared to the major airlines. While major airlines have drastically cut costs in the past few years, they also need to improve efficiency or risk going out of business. In this paper, we investigate the efficiency and productivity of a selection of U.S. airlines for the years 1996 through 2001. These years have been chosen as a good example of years in which the industry experienced normal growth and generally positively returns. Subsequent to 2001 the industry experienced two severe external shocks, namely, the September 11, 2001. terrorist attacks and the Iraq war. These anomalous shocks make the years after 2001 inconsistent with respect to the type of index developed in this article.

Vasigh, Bijan↗
NASA NTRS1987

The variably spaced superlattice electroluminescent display - A new high efficiency electroluminescence scheme

A new, highly efficient dc electroluminescent display is presented. A variably spaced superlattice scheme is suggested herein which can produce high-energy injection of electrons into a ZnSe:Mn active layer in which impact excitation of the Mn centers can occur. The device is predicted to operate at an applied external bias an order of magnitude less than the best dc electroluminescent device to date. The device is predicted to have comparable brightness, since it operates in the saturation regime. The improved efficiency stems from avoiding significant energy loss to phonons. The electrons sequentially tunnel through a multilayer stack under bias and emerge into the active layer at an energy equal to the conduction-band bending. The injection energy is chosen to coincide with the impact excitation energy of the Mn centers. Different device designs are presented and their performance is predicted.

Brennan, K. F.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Metalevel programming in robotics: Some issues

Computing in robotics has two important requirements: efficiency and flexibility. Algorithms for robot actions are implemented usually in procedural languages such as VAL and AL. But, since their excessive bindings create inflexible structures of computation, it is proposed that Logic Programming is a more suitable language for robot programming due to its non-determinism, declarative nature, and provision for metalevel programming. Logic Programming, however, results in inefficient computations. As a solution to this problem, researchers discuss a framework in which controls can be described to improve efficiency. They have divided controls into: (1) in-code and (2) metalevel and discussed them with reference to selection of rules and dataflow. Researchers illustrated the merit of Logic Programming by modelling the motion of a robot from one point to another avoiding obstacles.

Kumarn, A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trapezoidal grid fingers to reduce shadowing loss and improve short circuit current

Traditional metallic contacts on solar cells can cover a substantial portion of the device area, resulting in shadowing of light that diminishes the amount of current collected. In this paper, we developed trapezoidal electron-beam evaporated Ti/Al front grid fingers on GaAs single-junction solar cells to decrease the optical shadowing and increase the photogenerated current. Here, we observe a high fill factor of 87% at 1-Sun light intensity and we observe no degradation on the open-circuit voltage. The short-circuit current density is found to increase by 0.4 mA/cm 2 when compared to previously demonstrated electroplated Ni/Au front grid fingers, resulting in an efficiency improvement of ~0.8% absolute.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1987

InP based solar cells for space application: Reduction of external losses

Although InP-based solar cells have considerable potential for space applications, it is necessary to improve efficiencies to around the level of GaAs or Si cells before their excellent radiation resistance can be regarded as a dominant advantage. The authors concentrate on indium-tin-oxide/InP cells, presenting data relating to reduction of the contact resistance of the rear surface metallization, reduction of reflectance losses by choosing indium-tin-oxide deposition conditions to give specific optical properties, and reduction of losses associated with the grid. Simultaneous optimization of all of these has led to improved values of Jsc. For devices of approximately 1 cm2 in area, the largest Jsc achieved to date is 28.1 mA/aq cm (AM1.5, SERI/NASA direct normal spectrum, 25 C, total area, 100 mW/sq cm). For this particular cell, the equivalent AM0 value of Jsc was 34.6 mA/sq cm, which appears to be the largest reported for any InP-based cell.

Wu, X.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Active Control Analysis for Aeroelastic Instabilities in Turbomachines

Turbomachines onboard aircraft operate in a highly complex and harsh environment. The unsteady flowfield inherent to turbomachines leads to several problems associated with safety, stability, performance and noise. In-flight surge or flutter incidents could be catastrophic and impact the safety and reliability of the aircraft. High-Cycle-Fatigue (HCF), on the other hand, can significantly impact safety, readiness and maintenance costs. To avoid or minimize these problems generally a more conservative design method must be initiated which results in thicker blades and a loss of performance. Actively controlled turbomachines have the potential to reduce or even eliminate the instabilities by impacting the unsteady aerodynamic characteristics. By modifying the unsteady aerodynamics, active control may significantly improve the safety and performance especially at off-design conditions, reduce noise, and increase the range of operation of the turbomachine. Active control can also help improve reliability for mission critical applications such as the Mars Flyer. In recent years, HCF has become one of the major issues concerning the cost of operation for current turbomachines. HCF alone accounts for roughly 30% of maintenance cost for the United States Air-Force. Other instabilities (flutter, surge, rotating-stall, etc.) are generally identified during the design and testing phase. Usually a redesign overcomes these problems, often reducing performance and range of operation, and resulting in an increase in the development cost and time. Despite a redesign, the engines do not have the capabilities or means to cope with in-flight unforeseen vibration, stall, flutter or surge related instabilities. This could require the entire fleet worldwide to be stood down for expensive modifications. These problems can be largely overcome by incorporating active control within the turbomachine and its design. Active control can help in maintaining the integrity of the system in unforeseen events and provide for more aggressive designs to reduce the weight and improve efficiency of the turbomachine. Another area where active control can be useful is in controlling and suppressing rotating stall and surge in compressors, thereby increasing its operating range. Although some of these benefits will be offset by the added cost and weight penalty of the control system, the potential benefits in safety, reliability, performance, and noise characteristics are significant enough to warrant research in the area of active control of turbomachines. There is renewed interest within industry to understand unsteady aerodynamic behavior. This improved understanding not only leads to better design of turbomachines, which avoid instabilities but also which helps in understanding the controllability of the instabilities. The proliferation of micro-electro-mechanical-system (MEMS) devices has made available new tools to designers for employing feedback controls at reasonable costs. MEMS have also made the control devices small and unobtrusive enough to be implemented within the turbomachine without significant obstruction to the flow path. This has made active-control very attractive especially for systems requiring extreme confidence.

Keith, Theo G., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maritime Fuel Cell Generator Project [FY2018]

Fuel costs and emissions in maritime ports are an opportunity for transportation energy efficiency improvement and emissions reduction efforts. Ocean-going vessels, harbor craft, and cargo handling equipment are still major contributors to air pollution in and around ports. Diesel engine costs continually increase as tighter criteria pollutant regulations come into effect and will continue to do so with expected introduction of carbon emission regulations. Diesel fuel costs will also continue to rise as requirements for cleaner fuels are imposed. Both aspects will increase the cost of diesel-based power generation on the vessel and on shore. Although fuel cells have been used in many successful applications, they have not been technically or commercially validated in the port environment. One opportunity to do so was identified in Honolulu Harbor at the Young Brothers Ltd. wharf. At this facility, barges sail regularly to and from neighboring islands and containerized diesel generators provide power for the reefers while on the dock and on the barge during transport, nearly always at part load. Due to inherent efficiency characteristics of fuel cells and diesel generators, switching to a hydrogen fuel cell power generator was found to have potential emissions and cost savings. Deployment in Hawaii showed the unit needed greater reliability in the start-up sequence, as well as an improved interface to the end-user, thereby presenting opportunities for repairing/upgrading the unit for deployment in another locale. In FY2018, the unit was repaired and upgraded based on the Hawaii experience, and another deployment site was identified for another 6-month deployment of the 100 kW MarFC.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Primary Frequency Response in Networked Microgrid Operations using Multilayer Perceptron-Driven Reinforcement Learning

Individual microgrids can improve the reliability of power grids during extreme events, and networked microgrids can further improve efficiency through resource sharing and increase the resilience of critical end-use loads. However, networked microgrid operations are subject to large switching transients, which can cause dynamic instability and lead to system collapse. These transients are especially prevalent in microgrids with high penetrations of inverter-connected renewable energy resources, which do not provide the system inertia needed to mitigate the transients. Existing generator controls can be modified to invoke a drop in terminal voltage in response to a frequency deviation, thereby reducing load and improving frequency response. This paper investigates the use of a reinforcement-learning--based controller trained over several switching transient scenarios to modify generator controls during large frequency deviations. Compared to previously used proportional integral controllers, the proposed controller can improve primary frequency response while adapting to changes in system topologies and events.

Radhakrishnan, Nikitha↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overcoming genetic paucity of Camelina sativa : possibilities for interspecific hybridization conditioned by the genus evolution pathway

Camelina or false flax (Camelina sativa) is an emerging oilseed crop and a feedstock for biofuel production. This species is believed to originate from Western Asian and Eastern European regions, where the center of diversity of the Camelina genus is located. Cultivated Camelina species arose via a series of polyploidization events, serving as bottlenecks narrowing genetic diversity of the species. The genetic paucity of C. sativa is foreseen as the most crucial limitation for successful breeding and improvement of this crop. A potential solution to this challenge could be gene introgression from Camelina wild species or from resynthesized allohexaploid C. sativa. However, both approaches would require a complete comprehension of the evolutionary trajectories that led to the C. sativa origin. Although there are some studies discussing the origin and evolution of Camelina hexaploid species, final conclusions have not been made yet. Here, we propose the most complete integrated evolutionary model for the Camelina genus based on the most recently described findings, which enables efficient improvement of C. sativa via the interspecific hybridization with its wild relatives. We also discuss issues of interspecific and intergeneric hybridization, aimed on improving C. sativa and overcoming the genetic paucity of this crop. The proposed comprehensive evolutionary model of Camelina species indicates that a newly described species Camelina neglecta has a key role in origin of tetra- and hexaploids, all of which have two C. neglecta-based subgenomes. Understanding of species evolution within the Camelina genus provides insights into further research on C. sativa improvements via gene introgression from wild species, and a potential resynthesis of this emerging oilseed crop.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A high-order computational framework for particle-resolved simulations of disperse multiphase flows

This work presents a high-order numerical approach for particle-resolved simulations of disperse multiphase flows, where the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow are solved using a high-order spectral element method in the Eulerian framework, and the particle phase is directly simulated with a discrete element method. The coupling between particles and fluids is explicitly handled using an adapted direct-forcing immersed boundary method. Unlike the conventional schemes, a high-order barycentric Lagrange interpolation method and a Gaussian projection kernel are used to ensure accurate momentum exchange between local boundary points and surrounding fluid nodes in the framework of high-order fluid solver. Benchmark tests of increasing complexity are conducted to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our method. Here, it is found that our approach exhibits an excellent convergence performance, as the fluid element/grid is refined and the number of boundary points increases. Compared to conventional low-order methods, the proposed high-order framework enables the use of substantially larger fluid elements while maintaining high accuracy in modeling fluid-particle interactions, owing to the enhanced resolution of high-order basis functions. Moreover, since the primary unknowns are stored at element or grid nodes, the high-order approach offers improved efficiency in both CPU memory usage and total computational cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

An approximate solution for interlaminar stresses in composite laminates

An efficient approximate solution for interlaminar stresses in finite width, symmetric and unsymmetric laminated composites subjected to axial and/or bending loads is presented. The solution is based upon statically admissible stress fields which take into consideration local property mismatch effects and global equilibrium requirements. Unknown constants in the assumed stress states are determined through minimization of the laminate complementary energy. Typical results are presented for through-thickness and interlaminar stress distributions for angle-ply and cross-ply laminates subjected to axial loading. It is shown that the present formulation represents an improved, efficient approximate solution for interlaminar stresses.

Rose, Cheryl A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Instanton Theory with the Line Integral Nudged Elastic Band Method and Gaussian Process Regression

Quantum tunneling plays a fundamental role in many chemical reactions, particularly proton transfer processes. Ring polymer instanton theory offers a practical framework for computing tunneling rates in complex molecular systems. However, applying the ring polymer instanton method with a potential energy surface generated on-the-fly using electronic structure calculations can be computationally demanding. Here, in this work, we present a new efficient implementation of the ring polymer instanton method by combining the Line Integral Nudged Elastic Band (LI-NEB) approach with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). We benchmarked this method on prototypical ground-state proton transfer systems, including the benchmark gas-phase hydrogen abstraction reaction H + CH 4 → H 2 + CH 3 , malonaldehyde, and Z-3-amino-propenal (aminopropenal). Our results show that this approach is an order of magnitude faster than traditional instanton algorithms while maintaining excellent agreement with their tunneling rates. This development opens the door to studying proton transfer in larger systems with improved efficiency.

chemical physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plasma-Assisted Pre-Chamber Ignition System for Highly Dilute Stoichiometric Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines (Final Technical Report)

This project explored advanced ignition technologies to significantly enhance efficiency and reduce operating costs for heavy-duty natural gas engines operating at stoichiometric conditions, while meeting ultra-low NOx emission standards. The main goal was to develop and validate a plasma-assisted pre-chamber ignition system that could deliver at least a 2% increase in brake thermal efficiency (BTE) and a 4% decrease in total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to a typical multi-cylinder engine with three-way catalyst aftertreatment, ensuring compatibility with the expected 2027 EPA/CARB regulations. In the first half of the project, the research team concentrated on developing and testing plasma-assisted pre-chamber ignition using nanosecond pulsed discharges. Extensive experiments were conducted in an optically accessible rapid-compression and expansion machine, a constant-volume chamber, and an optical single-cylinder engine. Experiments were coupled with CFD simulations. The work produced unique insights into pre-chamber flame formation, jet ignition, dilution effects, and flame quenching at pressures, temperatures, and dilution levels relevant to engines. Although plasma-assisted ignition showed promise in controlled lab settings, the research also identified fundamental and practical challenges when applying this technology to real engine conditions. Midway through the project, a crucial pivot was made, guided by three key findings. First, the power electronics required for nanosecond plasma discharges were found to be too costly for commercial use, undermining the project’s cost-of-ownership goals. Second, nanosecond plasma ignition was highly sensitive to turbulent flow in the pre-chamber, resulting in lower ignition reliability than traditional spark under engine-like conditions. Third, achieving a truly diffuse low-temperature plasma at high pressures near top dead center was not possible, reducing the anticipated chemical enhancement benefits. These results collectively suggested that continuing with plasma-assisted ignition was unlikely to meet both efficiency and cost objectives. In response, the project shifted focus to a more realistic approach: enhancing traditional spark-based pre-chamber ignition with significantly less spark energy. Using insights gained earlier in the project, the team redesigned the pre-chamber to maintain high dilution tolerance and quick combustion, even with lower ignition energy. Testing confirmed that with optimized pre-chamber design and combustion timing, a lower-energy spark could reliably ignite highly diluted stoichiometric mixtures, reduce burn time, and boost thermal efficiency. Final engine testing and techno-economic analysis verified that this revised approach successfully achieved the project goals. The optimized pre-chamber ignition system provided over a 2% increase in calculated brake thermal efficiency compared to the baseline engine. Notably, the lower ignition energy and simplified hardware reduced component stress, extended maintenance intervals, and lowered the total cost of ownership. When used with stoichiometric operation and traditional three-way aftertreatment, the system remained compatible with near-zero NOx emissions targets without increasing cost or complexity in the emissions control system. In summary, although the project deviated from its initial plasma-assisted ignition idea, the work produced a more practical and commercially viable solution. The results show that precisely optimized, low-energy pre-chamber spark ignition can significantly improve efficiency and reduce overall ownership costs for heavy-duty natural gas engines. This directly aligns with DOE goals for cleaner, more efficient, and cost-effective transportation technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

SHOTEAM: Superalloy Heat exchangers Optimized for Temperature Extremes and Additive Manufacturability (Final Technical Report)

UCLA developed an extreme-condition heat exchanger technology targeted to ultra-high efficiency hybrid aviation power cycles. The heat exchanger targeted operation at 50 kW (thermal) at supercritical CO 2 pressures of 80 and 250 bar (1160 and 3626 psi) in hot and cold streams, respectively and at a hot-stream inlet temperature of 800°C (1472°F). A metallic superalloy capable of withstanding high temperature and pressure was used to fabricate a microtube shell-and-tube-based design supplemented with 3D-printed tube augmentations. The optimized design enhanced overall heat transfer while maintaining a small overall form factor and low weight. This class of heat exchanger could dramatically improve efficiency, power density, and cost effectiveness for new hybrid aviation power cycles, thus enabling economically feasible routes to air vehicle propulsion with substantially less CO 2 emissions to the environment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable High-H 2 Flux, Robust Thin Film Solid Oxide Electrolyzer

This project was aimed at the development of proton-conducting SOEC (P-SOEC) technology that has the potential to meet key DOE H 2 production targets. A decreased proton resistance of the electrolyte and Faradaic efficiency improvements were sought to increase the fraction of consumed electrolysis power that is used to actually generate H 2 , while simultaneously decreasing cost dramatically. Moreover, the development project was intended to yield maximum durability through the use of a steam protective layer. Furthermore, sputtering was used to overcome processing challenges that have hampered P-SOEC development, while the low-temperature operation goal of 500 °C was expected to aid in mitigating thermally activated long-term degradation. The approach to high-performance, lower-temperature SOECs leveraged our existing SOFC Ni-cermet anode support and extensive thin-film sputtering layer-deposition experience. Rather than an all-in-one, reversible fuel cell approach which has many unacceptable tradeoffs, we focused on the many benefits to hydrogen generating SOECs, including the existence of synergies for reduced manufacturing costs (e.g., SOECs and SOFCs share supporting layers and overall manufacturing processing). The end result of this project was expected to increase current performance at 500 °C from approximately 0.8 A/cm 2 (at 60% Faradaic efficiency) at 1.4 V to > 1 A/cm 2 (at > 95% Faradaic efficiency) with a > 40% reduction in system cost and to enable operation of P-SOECs in steam contents >> 20% for a goal of a > 40,000 hours lifetime. To enable 500 °C operation in a very high steam atmosphere (> 20%), we proposed the use of a sputtered dense thin film (~0.1-1 µm thick) of high-stability Ba(Zr,Y)O 3 (BZY) to protect the Ba(Ce,Zr,Y,Yb)O 3 (BCZYYb) electrolyte. The BZCYYb, in turn, blocks the hole conductivity of the BZY to boost Faradaic efficiency. As FE increases, more of the consumed electricity is used in electrolysis to generate H 2 , rather than being shunted. Additionally, as cell resistance decreases, the voltage required to maintain current decreases, as well as the power required to generate the same amount of H 2 . With the proposed enhancements, these two factors result in the final 46% decrease in power needed to run the system. Likewise, a production rate of 50,000 kg H 2 /day will require 55% less active area, such that a system will need only 650 cells for an 80 cm 2 active area instead of ~1,440. Taking the 2016 DOE projected current cost and modifying the electricity cost and linearly scaling the other costs (except thermal feedstock) based on the cell area improvement, results in a 44% decrease in lifetime system cost, or a decrease from $\$$4.95/kg H 2 to $\$$2.75/kg H 2 . This is well below the 2018 DOE target of $\$$4/kg H 2 . The results from this project showed that we can create a P-SOEC with enhanced steam stability using two different electrolytes (i.e., one on top of the other) and achieve sufficiently low area specific resistance (ASR) to achieve the target performance. Unfortunately, due to extended delays at the beginning of the project and related supply chain and equipment access issues, we were not able to completely show increased Faradaic efficiency for the P-SOEC and therefore were unable to demonstrate the full proof of concept within the first budget period budget. While there are still challenges that remain to be solved, significant progress was made during this project and the concept still has merit that warrants further development.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Turbine Component Cooling Designs Facilitated by Additive Manufacturing and Optimization

This research program involved the development of improved gas turbine cooling by optimizing the combined internal and film cooling configurations used for turbine blades and vanes. Improved cooling of turbine airfoils allows the gas turbines to be operated at higher temperatures which improves efficiency for gas turbine-based power generation. This also facilitates operation with hydrogen-based fuels which inherently generate higher operating temperatures. Designs of the new cooling configurations were based on the added geometric flexibility that is available when using metal additive manufacturing techniques. When making these designs, adjustments were made to account for imperfections occurring in the metal additive manufacturing process. New designs for film cooling holes were developed using computational adjoint gradient optimization techniques which generated a unique film cooling hole with 70% greater film cooling effectiveness compared to conventional shaped film cooling holes. A major factor in improving the film cooling effectiveness were small external protrusions on either side of the new hole which generated vortices that pushed coolant towards the surface and increased the lateral spreading of the coolant. Our studies also included optimization of film cooling holes that can be built with conventional manufacturing techniques and optimizing the internal coolant channels that supply coolant to the film cooling holes. Various internal coolant channel shapes were investigated and designs that maximized the cooling of the airfoil while minimizing pressure losses in the channel flows were identified. Testing and verification of the performance of the final configurations was done with a transonic wind tunnel facility which allowed testing at engine realistic high velocities. Final testing of the combined internal and film cooling configurations was done by incorporating the configurations in Penn State’s National Experimental Turbine (NExT) vane. These tests confirmed the enhanced overall cooling effectiveness provided by the new cooling configuration designs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗