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At least 505 records · Page 28

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ab initio calculations of material properties for modeling debris (FY2021 Progress Report)

This report summarizes the work done during the first 6 months of the project “Ab initio calculations of material properties for modeling debris” that is part of the Rapid Response Research (R3) Venture. The main focus for this fiscal year (FY) has been the evaluation of classical interatomic potentials for the description of the condensation of uranium oxides in the regimes relevant to fireball conditions. We also delineate how these functions will be used within the molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo frameworks to compute thermodynamic properties of these materials. These descriptions are to be utilized within continuum modeling formulations to generate a more accurate characterization of the homogeneous nucleation process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optimizations of a Rectilinear Cooling Channel for a Future Muon Collider

Muon colliders require significant beam cooling to achieve the luminosity needed for high-energy physics experiments. Ionization cooling has emerged as a promising solution. This study optimizes a rectilinear muon cooling channel using a multi-objective optimization framework that integrates beam dynamics simulations. We present novel optimizations of final 6D emittance versus total system length as well as those confirming the theoretical trade-offs between transverse and longitudinal emittance. Our results optimizing all stages of the system simultaneously surpass performance benchmarks reported in the literature, demonstrating possible ways to improve the efficiency of such a cooling system.

Zhang, Aubrey [U. Chicago (main)]↗

Optimizations of a Rectilinear Cooling Channel for a Future Muon Collider

Muon colliders require significant beam cooling to achieve the luminosity needed for high-energy physics experiments. Ionization cooling has emerged as a promising solution. This study optimizes a rectilinear muon cooling channel using a multi-objective optimization framework that integrates beam dynamics simulations. We present novel optimizations of final 6D emittance versus total system length as well as those confirming the theoretical trade-offs between transverse and longitudinal emittance. Our results optimizing all stages of the system simultaneously surpass performance benchmarks reported in the literature, demonstrating possible ways to improve the efficiency of such a cooling system.

Zhang, Aubrey [U. Chicago (main)]↗

Dissipative Floquet Dynamics: from Steady State to Measurement Induced Criticality in Trapped-ion Chains

Quantum systems evolving unitarily and subject to quantum measurements exhibit various types of non-equilibrium phase transitions, arising from the competition between unitary evolution and measurements. Dissipative phase transitions in steady states of time-independent Liouvillians and measurement induced phase transitions at the level of quantum trajectories are two primary examples of such transitions. Investigating a many-body spin system subject to periodic resetting measurements, we argue that many-body dissipative Floquet dynamics provides a natural framework to analyze both types of transitions. We show that a dissipative phase transition between a ferromagnetic ordered phase and a paramagnetic disordered phase emerges for long-range systems as a function of measurement probabilities. A measurement induced transition of the entanglement entropy between volume law scaling and sub-volume law scaling is also present, and is distinct from the ordering transition. The two phases correspond to an error-correcting and a quantum-Zeno regimes, respectively. The ferromagnetic phase is lost for short range interactions, while the volume law phase of the entanglement is enhanced. An analysis of multifractal properties of wave function in Hilbert space provides a common perspective on both types of transitions in the system. Our findings are immediately relevant to trapped ion experiments, for which we detail a blueprint proposal based on currently available platforms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Study of Anharmonicity in Zirconium Hydrides Using Inelastic Neutron Scattering and Ab-Initio Computer Modeling

The anharmonic phonon behavior in zirconium hydrides and deuterides, including ϵ-ZrH 2 , γ-ZrH, and γ-ZrD, has been investigated from aspects of inelastic neutron scattering (INS) and lattice dynamics calculations within the framework of density functional theory (DFT). The harmonic model failed to reproduce the spectral features observed in the experimental data, indicating the existence of anharmonicity in those materials and the necessity of further explanations. Here, we present a detailed study on the anharmonicity in zirconium hydrides/deuterides by exploring the 2D potential energy surface of hydrogen/deuterium atoms and solving the corresponding 2D single-particle Schrödinger equation to obtain the eigenfrequencies, which are then convoluted with the instrument resolution. The convoluted INS spectra qualitatively describe the anharmonic peaks in the experimental INS spectra and demonstrate that the anharmonicity originates from the deviations of hydrogen potentials from quadratic behavior in certain directions; the effects are apparent for the higher-order excited vibrational states, but small for the ground and first excited states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Zonal Flow and Self-regulating Mechanism in a Hydrodynamic Disk

This study addresses key aspects of momentum transport in hydrodynamic disks, which is critical for understanding zonal flow generation and turbulence in compressible hydrodynamic disks. We find that nonlinear momentum/density transport leads to the formation of zonal flows from the Rossby wave instability in disks. We analytically derive the generation and location of zonal flows and describe a modified Taylor identity applicable to compressible disk flows. We further present a self-regulation model, revealing a dynamic interplay between zonal flow and fluctuations driven by Rossby wave instability that regulates the nonlinear saturation state. This theoretical framework contributes insights into the dynamics of disks such as protoplanetary disks, shedding light on the intricate processes governing momentum/density transport and the emergence of zonal flows in the saturation of protoplanetary disks.

Astrophysical fluid dynamics↗

A model and plan for a longitudinal study of community response to aircraft noise

A new approach is discussed for the study of the effects of aircraft noise on people who live near large airports. The approach was an outgrowth of a planned study of the reactions of individuals exposed to changing aircraft noise conditions around the Dallas-Ft. Worth (DFW) regional airport. The rationale, concepts, and methods employed in the study are discussed. A critical review of major past studies traces the history of community response research in an effort to identify strengths and limitations of the various approaches and methodologies. A stress-reduction model is presented to provide a framework for studying the dynamics of human response to a changing noise environment. The development of the survey instrument is detailed, and preliminary results of pretest data are discussed.

Gunn, W. J.↗

Characteristics of the Marslike limit of the Venus-solar wind interaction

The response of the Venus ionosphere to the solar wind when the latter exceeds the peak thermal pressure in the Venus ionosphere is characterized on the basis of observations from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter. At these times, the Venus ionosphere becomes increasingly magnetized until the total ionospheric pressure matches that of the solar wind. The ionopause becomes less distinct and asymptotically approaches a limiting altitude of about 220 km for extremely high pressures. When the ionopause is low, the hot regions of electrons which occurs within the ionopause gradient extends to lower altitudes. The ion temperatures show little change, and there is no discernible increase in plasma wave activity at the ionopause. The Venus observations at high dynamic pressure provide a framework for reassessing the available Mars observations. In particular, this study shows that solar wind standoff without sufficient ionospheric plasma pressure cannot by itself be used as evidence for a planetary magnetic field.

Luhmann, J. G.↗

Spacecraft alignment estimation

A numerically well-behaved factorized methodology is developed for estimating spacecraft sensor alignments from prelaunch and inflight data without the need to compute the spacecraft attitude or angular velocity. Such a methodology permits the estimation of sensor alignments (or other biases) in a framework free of unknown dynamical variables. In actual mission implementation such an algorithm is usually better behaved than one that must compute sensor alignments simultaneously with the spacecraft attitude, for example by means of a Kalman filter. In particular, such a methodology is less sensitive to data dropouts of long duration, and the derived measurement used in the attitude-independent algorithm usually makes data checking and editing of outliers much simpler than would be the case in the filter.

Shuster, Malcolm D.↗

A spatial operator algebra for manipulator modeling and control

A spatial operator algebra for modeling the control and trajectory design of manipulation is discussed, with emphasis on its analytical formulation and implementation in the Ada programming language. The elements of this algebra are linear operators whose domain and range spaces consist of forces, moments, velocities, and accelerations. The effect of these operators is equivalent to a spatial recursion along the span of the manipulator. Inversion is obtained using techniques of recursive filtering and smoothing. The operator alegbra provides a high-level framework for describing the dynamic and kinematic behavior of a manipulator and control and trajectory design algorithms. Implementable recursive algorithms can be immediately derived from the abstract operator expressions by inspection, thus greatly simplifying the transition from an abstract problem formulation and solution to the detailed mechanization of a specific algorithm.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Long-term orbital evolution of short-period comets found in Project Cosmo-DICE

Orbital evolutions of about 160 short-period (SP) comets are numerically integrated for 4400 years in the framework of a realistic dynamical model. By the round-trip error in closure test, a reliable time space of the integrated orbits is estimated for each comet. Majority of the SP comets with their Tisserand's constant(J) between 2.8 and 3.1 are found to evolve within the past 1000-2000 years from the orbits whose perihelia are near the Jovian orbit to the orbits with perihelia of 1-2 AU. This evolution is much more rapid than that expected from Monte Carlo simulations based on symmetric distribution of planetary perturbations, thus suggesting that asymmetry of perturbation distribution play an important role in cometary evolution. Several comets are shown to evolve from the near-Saturn orbits and then to be handed over under the control of Jupiter. We also find that a few comets were captured from long-period orbits (a = 75-125 AU) via only a few close encounters with Jupiter. It is confirmed that the captured SP comets of low-inclination with 2.7 less than J less than 3.1 show more or less strong chaotic behavior. On the other hand, comets with longer orbital period and/or of high inclination reveal slow or quasi-periodic orbital evolution.

Nakamura, Tsuko↗

Three-dimensional user interfaces for scientific visualization

The main goal of this project is to develop novel and productive user interface techniques for creating and managing visualizations of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) datasets. We have implemented an application framework in which we can visualize computational fluid dynamics user interfaces. This UI technology allows users to interactively place visualization probes in a dataset and modify some of their parameters. We have also implemented a time-critical scheduling system which strives to maintain a constant frame-rate regardless of the number of visualization techniques. In the past year, we have published parts of this research at two conferences, the research annotation system at Visualization 1994, and the 3D user interface at UIST 1994. The real-time scheduling system has been submitted to SIGGRAPH 1995 conference. Copies of these documents are included with this report.

Vandam, Andries↗

Impact of Load Balancing on Unstructured Adaptive Grid Computations for Distributed-Memory Multiprocessors

The computational requirements for an adaptive solution of unsteady problems change as the simulation progresses. This causes workload imbalance among processors on a parallel machine which, in turn, requires significant data movement at runtime. We present a new dynamic load-balancing framework, called JOVE, that balances the workload across all processors with a global view. Whenever the computational mesh is adapted, JOVE is activated to eliminate the load imbalance. JOVE has been implemented on an IBM SP2 distributed-memory machine in MPI for portability. Experimental results for two model meshes demonstrate that mesh adaption with load balancing gives more than a sixfold improvement over one without load balancing. We also show that JOVE gives a 24-fold speedup on 64 processors compared to sequential execution.

Biswas, Rupak↗

Impact of Load Balancing on Unstructured Adaptive Grid Computations for Distributed-Memory Multiprocessors

The computational requirements for an adaptive solution of unsteady problems change as the simulation progresses. This causes workload imbalance among processors on a parallel machine which, in turn, requires significant data movement at runtime. We present a new dynamic load-balancing framework, called JOVE, that balances the workload across all processors with a global view. Whenever the computational mesh is adapted, JOVE is activated to eliminate the load imbalance. JOVE has been implemented on an IBM SP2 distributed-memory machine in MPI for portability. Experimental results for two model meshes demonstrate that mesh adaption with load balancing gives more than a sixfold improvement over one without load balancing. We also show that JOVE gives a 24-fold speedup on 64 processors compared to sequential execution.

Sohn, Andrew↗

Selecting Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessments

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Strahan, Susan↗