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At least 505 records · Page 28

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Incorporating energy justice and equity objectives in power system models

Ensuring an equitable energy transition requires models and tools that can account for equity and energy justice goals. Power system models (PSMs) are widely used throughout industry, government, and academia to simulate or optimize the operations and planning of current and future electricity systems under different scenarios, parameter assumptions and policy frameworks. These models are important tools that allow users to understand how the power system may evolve under different future conditions, but importantly, they are also used to inform policy implementation and investment decisions across all aspects of the power system. However, existing models seldom include energy justice considerations and therefore energy justice priorities are not reflected in the policies and other decision-making processes that are informed by these models. The purpose of this review is to provide a framework that energy modelers can draw upon to integrate energy justice and equity goals into PSMs. To this end, 99 papers that examine the intersection of energy justice and power system models are summarized and ten core aspects of the power system that can impact energy justice outcomes, and therefore require new modeling approaches, are identified. This review then establishes key current practices, challenges, and opportunities associated with capturing energy justice considerations in power system models across these ten aspects. This review concludes by proposing four key research directions that should be pursued to improve the representation of energy justice and equity in power system modeling. Finally, this review also addresses challenges raised by United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7, which aims to ensure affordable energy access to everyone and Sustainable Development Goal 13, which aims to take urgent action to address climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydrogen technology for maritime applications: A review of challenges, opportunities, and lessons from the port authority of New York and New Jersey

The maritime industry faces increasing demand for energy security, operational efficiency, and environmental performance improvements. Hydrogen technology, considered a potential energy carrier, is being explored for port operations, including cargo-handling equipment, heavy-duty vehicles, and stationary power systems. This review evaluates the feasibility, challenges, and potential benefits of hydrogen integration within port infrastructure, using the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey as a representative case study. Drawing on case studies, technical reports, and policy analyses, this study examines the infrastructural, regulatory, and operational factors influencing large-scale deployment, emphasizing supply chain development, storage requirements, and refueling infrastructure. By situating hydrogen within broader maritime energy transition efforts, this review provides an evidence-based assessment of its role in port operations and energy diversification strategies. In conclusion, the findings outline key barriers to adoption and emphasize the need for coordinated efforts among stakeholders to determine hydrogen's role alongside other emerging energy technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Large thermal hysteresis in a single-phase NiTiNb shape memory alloy

Large thermal hysteresis ($T$ hys ) is favorable in shape memory alloys (SMAs) because it renders wide service and storage temperature range of the SMA-made parts. In this letter, we show that large intrinsic $T$ hys up to 100 K is achieved in a low Nb content (2 at.%), β-Nb-free and single-phase NiTiNb SMA fabricated by casting, forging, wire-drawing and annealing. Such a large $T$ hys is comparable to that of the widely used dual-phase NiTiNb SMAs in which high Nb content and β-Nb are required. By exploiting the grain-size-dependence of $T$ hys in our single-phase NiTiNb SMA and that in an equiatomic NiTi SMA, we attribute the large $T$ hys to the enhanced kinetic resistance of transformation by the small grains. In conclusion, the connection between the $T$ hys and the kinetic resistance is demonstrated by a modified dislocation-based kinetic model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electrodialysis: An effective methodology to purify the leachate of spent Li-ion batteries

The electrification of transportation and the transition of society towards low or net-zero carbon emissions has led to a skyrocketing global demand for Li-ion batteries. After a service life of three to ten years, Li-ion batteries have less than 80 % of their initial capacities and draw near to the end of their lives for practical utilization. Due to potential supply chain shortages and the value embodied in Li-ion batteries, it is imperative to recycle them, to recover the materials, and to improve the circularity and the sustinability of the industry. How to cost-effectively purify spent batteries while reducing time, energy, and waste emissions is a challenge faced by Li-ion battery recyclers. The first electrochemical membrane reactor reported in our group hasa high selectivity towards lower Cu 2+ , Al 3+ and Fe 3+ ions (<5 ppm) and retains >95% of the Ni 2+ , Co 2+ and Mn 2+ ions in the leachate. An advanced electrochemical membrane reactor was developed in this study. Further, not only does the new reactor have the same selectivity as the original reactor, but other advantages including a faster leachate processing rate (up to 10X faster). The advanced reactor can also directly generate acid at the anode side; eliminating the reactor restoration step. The prominent advantages that this electrodialysis technology has over chemical-precipitation methods include: (1) ion recovery efficiencies do not diminish after removing the impurities, Ni 2+ , Co 2+ and Mn 2+ , even at a higher initial Ni 2+ ion concentrations; in comparison, chemical precipitation has Ni 2+ , Co 2+ and Mn 2+ ion recovery efficiencies reduced significantly when the initial Ni 2+ , Co 2+ and Mn 2+ ion concentrations increase. (2) electrodialysis does not change the concentrations of Ni 2+ , Co 2+ and Mn 2+ ions significantly, but chemical precipitation could reduce Ni 2+ and Co 2+ ions to less than half of their initial values. Through electro-dialyzing the leachate, the H 2 evolution reaction mechanism was found to switch from the Volmer-acid Heyrovsky mechanism to the Volmer-alkaline Heyrovsky mechanism at a pH of around 3.7.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Rapid characterization and failure analysis of 6276 rooftop-harvested photovoltaic connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) connectors, which link modules in series and connect PV strings in parallel, have increasingly been recognized as a primary contributor to PV system failures and a source of numerous fire incidents. However, publicly available data on the rates and types of connector failures are scarce, primarily due to the proprietary nature of the information and the need for comprehensive analysis. This study represents the first large-scale investigation of harvested PV connectors, drawing from a dataset of 6276 connectors from residential rooftop solar systems across the United States. The outcome of this work is twofold: 1) we have established a rapid characterization method for large populations of harvested connectors, incorporating visual inspection, resistance measurements, and X-ray imaging; and 2) the analysis made possible by our rapid-processing method has revealed, for a population of connector models provided by a single rooftop installer, failure statistics and insights for various connector makes and models, installation practices, operating currents, and internal component displacements. This research identifies common failure modes that could be considered in future connector designs standards, and operations and maintenance practices, to ultimately improve the reliability of this vital component of PV infrastructure.

MC4↗

A bioinspired approach for adaptive solid-solid phase change material coatings with optimized surface features for passive thermal regulation

The necessity to reduce global energy consumption calls for innovative strategies in building thermal management. Passive thermal regulation, particularly through bio-inspired designs, offers a promising avenue by mimicking nature's efficient control of optical properties. This research introduces a novel, climate-responsive coating that integrates optimized bio-inspired surface features with a solid-solid phase change material (SS-PCM) to dynamically manage solar absorptivity without adding additional thickness, enabling both heating and cooling as needed. Drawing on the photonic architectures of the Saharan silver ant and Morpho Didius butterfly, we employed a modeling and multi-objective optimization framework to tailor these surface features. Simulations reveal that surface texture, rather than the intrinsic phase transition of the SS PCM, dominates optical control. Relative to a flat SS PCM coating, optimized isotropic random roughness and broader range features yielded the highest passive heating power increase of about 144 % and 319 % respectively suitable for cold climates. Saharan ant-inspired features enhanced passive cooling for hot climates, achieving a 21.8 % improvement. For moderate climates, Butterfly-wing-inspired surface features provided a balanced enhancement of 19 % for heating and 7 % for cooling. Across all cases, the optimized surface features reduced combined heating and cooling energy demand more effectively than the baseline coating, while preserving material thickness. These findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive, optimized bio-inspired surface features can unlock the full potential of SS PCM coatings, providing a versatile pathway to significant energy savings in buildings and other applications. The methodology establishes a framework for designing next-generation adaptive envelopes that leverage natural photonic principles for high-impact, low-cost thermal regulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Renormalization of the 3D exciton spectrum by the disorder

Effect of short-range disorder on the excited states of the exciton is studied. Disorder causes an obvious effect of broadening. Microscopically, an exciton, as an entity, is scattered by the large-scale disorder fluctuations. Much less trivial is that short-scale fluctuations, with a period of the order of the Bohr radius, cause a well-defined down-shift of the exciton levels. We demonstrate that this shift exceeds the broadening parametrically and study the dependence of this shift on the orbital number. Difference of the shifts for neighboring levels leads to effective renormalization of the Bohr energy. Most remarkable effect is the disorder-induced splitting of S and P exciton levels. The splitting originates from the fact that disorder lifts the accidental degeneracy of the hydrogen-like levels. We draw an analogy between this splitting and the Lamb shift in quantum electrodynamics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗

Impacts and emerging research opportunities in Vehicle-Grid Integration for transportation: A review

This review provides a comprehensive examination of Vehicle-Grid Integration (VGI) technologies and their impacts on transportation systems, with a particular emphasis on the transportation-energy nexus. It systematically explores how VGI affects key transportation applications such as charging infrastructure planning, electric vehicle (EV) routing, smart charging coordination, shared mobility, and dynamic pricing. By synthesizing recent literature from both transportation and energy systems perspectives, this study highlights how advanced methodologies, such as reinforcement learning, game theory, and optimization techniques, are used to model the complex interactions between EVs, mobility patterns, and distributed energy systems. Furthermore, the review also identifies critical challenges, including behavioral factors, data limitations, and system scalability. Drawing on these insights, the paper outlines emerging research opportunities to support the design of integrated, resilient, and user-centric VGI solutions that advance sustainable mobility and energy system efficiency.

Charging coordination↗

Networks and interfaces as catalysts for polymer materials innovation

Autonomous experimental systems offer a compelling glimpse into a future where closed-loop, iterative cycles—performed by machines and guided by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)—play a foundational role in materials research and development. This perspective draws attention to the roles of networks and interfaces—of and between humans and machines—for the purpose of generating knowledge and accelerating innovation. Polymers, a class of materials with massive global impact, present a unique opportunity for the application of informatics and automation to pressing societal challenges. To develop these networks and interfaces in polymer science, the Community Resource for Innovation in Polymer Technology (CRIPT)—a polymer data ecosystem based on novel polymer data model, representation, search, and visualization technologies—is introduced. The ongoing co-design efforts engage stakeholders in industry, academia, and government to uncover rapidly actionable, high-impact opportunities to build networks, bridge interfaces, and catalyze innovation in polymer technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Rapid, efficient reduction of iron oxide with ammonia

Reducing iron oxide to iron metal with fossil fuels produces circa 4% of annual anthropogenic CO 2 , ca. 2 Gt/a, as direct chemical emissions from the process. Using ammonia instead of coke—releasing only water and nitrogen as byproducts—could be a widely deployable method of decarbonizing industrial ironmaking, because ammonia carries hydrogen and can be transported easily worldwide. However, initial reports suggest that the reaction of ammonia with iron oxide is slow and inefficient, completed only in hours and using only a few percent of the ammonia supplied. Drawing on thermodynamic and kinetic analysis of the reaction, we explored high-temperature, high-flow reaction conditions designed to increase the reaction rate and the ammonia utilization. We report the reduction of iron oxide in 1 min while using 64% of the ammonia supplied. We show that these insights translate to the gram scale and the reduction of pelletized ore, a common form used industrially.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge: Confronting blind predictions for the linear and nonlinear dynamics of a thin-walled jointed structure with measurement results

The present article summarizes the submissions to the Tribomechadynamics Research Challenge announced in 2021. The task was a blind prediction of the vibration behavior of a system comprising a thin plate clamped on two sides via bolted joints. Both geometric and frictional contact nonlinearities are expected to be relevant. Provided were the CAD models and technical drawings of all parts as well as assembly instructions. The main objective was to predict the frequency and damping ratio of the lowest-frequency mode as function of the amplitude. Many different prediction approaches were pursued, ranging from well-known methods to very recently developed ones. After the submission deadline, the system has been fabricated and tested. The aim of this article is to evaluate the current state of the art in modeling and vibration prediction, and to provide directions for future methodological advancements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Turbulent impurity transport simulations in Wendelstein 7-X plasmas

A study of turbulent impurity transport by means of quasilinear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations is presented for Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X). The calculations have been carried out with the recently developed gyrokinetic code stella. Different impurity species are considered in the presence of various types of background instabilities: ion temperature gradient (ITG), trapped electron mode (TEM) and electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes for the quasilinear part of the work; ITG and TEM for the nonlinear results. While the quasilinear approach allows one to draw qualitative conclusions about the sign or relative importance of the various contributions to the flux, the nonlinear simulations quantitatively determine the size of the turbulent flux and check the extent to which the quasilinear conclusions hold. Although the bulk of the nonlinear simulations are performed at trace impurity concentration, nonlinear simulations are also carried out at realistic effective charge values, in order to know to what degree the conclusions based on the simulations performed for trace impurities can be extrapolated to realistic impurity concentrations. The presented results conclude that the turbulent radial impurity transport in W7-X is mainly dominated by ordinary diffusion, which is close to that measured during the recent W7-X experimental campaigns. Finally, it is also confirmed that thermodiffusion adds a weak inward flux contribution and that, in the absence of impurity temperature and density gradients, ITG- and TEM-driven turbulence push the impurities inwards and outwards, respectively.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Plasma potential shaping using end-electrodes in the Large Plasma Device

We perform experiments in the Large Plasma Device at the University of California, Los Angeles, studying how different end-electrode biasing schemes modify the radial potential profile in the machine. We impose biasing profiles of different polarities and gradient signs on a set of five concentric electrodes placed 12 m downstream from the plasma source. We find that imposing concave-down profiles (negative potential radial gradient) on the electrodes creates radial potential profiles halfway up the plasma column that are comparable to those imposed on the electrodes and a few electron temperature in height, regardless of the biasing polarity. On the other hand, imposing concave-up profiles (positive potential radial gradient) leads to non-monotonic radial potential profiles. This observation can be explained by the current drawn through the electrodes and the parallel plasma resistivity, highlighting their important role in controlling the rotation of plasma. Concave-down plasma potential profiles, obtained by drawing electrons on the axis, are predicted to drive azimuthal drift velocities that can approach significant fractions of the ion sound speed in the central region of the plasma column.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deciphering Reaction Mechanisms of Molecular Proton Reduction Catalysts with Cyclic Voltammetry: Kinetic vs Thermodynamic Control

The kinetics and thermodynamics of elementary reaction steps involved in the catalytic reduction of protons to hydrogen define the reaction landscape for catalysis. The mechanisms can differ in the order of the elementary proton transfer, electron transfer, and bond-forming steps and can be further differentiated by the sites at which protons and electrons localize. Access to fully elucidated mechanistic, kinetic, and thermochemical details of molecular catalysts is crucial to facilitate the development of new catalysts that operate with optimal efficiency, selectivity, and durability. The mechanism by which a catalyst operates, as well as the kinetics and thermodynamics associated with the individual steps, can often be accessed through electroanalytical studies. Here, this Account details the application of cyclic voltammetry to interrogate reaction mechanisms and quantify the kinetics and thermodynamics of elementary reaction steps for a series of molecular catalysts that mediate electrochemical proton reduction. I distinguish the limiting scenarios wherein a catalyst operates under kinetic control vs thermodynamic control, with a focus on detecting how cyclic voltammetry features shift with proton source strength and concentration, as well as scan rate. For systems that operate under kinetic control, catalytic currents are observed at, or slightly positive toward, the formal potential for the redox process that triggers catalysis. Under thermodynamic control, catalytic responses shift as a function of the proton source pKa and effective pH of the solution. After drawing this distinction, we introduce the appropriate voltammetry experiments and accompanying analytical expressions for extracting key metrics from the data. To illustrate analytical strategies to quantify elementary reaction steps of catalysts operating under kinetic control, I describe our studies of proton reduction catalysts Co(dmgBF 2 ) 2 (CH 3 CN) 2 (dmgBF 2 = difluoroboryl-dimethylglyoxime) and [Ni(P 2 Ph N 2 Ph ) 2 ] 2+ (P 2 Ph N 2 Ph = 1,5-phenyl-3,7-phenyl-1,5-diaza-3,7-diphosphacyclooctane). Here, peak shift analysis, foot-of-the-wave analysis, and plateau current analysis are applied to data sets wherein voltammetric response are recorded as a function of catalyst concentration, proton source concentration, proton source strength, and scan rate to quantify rate constants for elementary proton transfer and bond-forming steps in a catalytic cycle. Further, the case study of [Ni(P 2 Ph N 2 Ph ) 2 ] 2+ illustrates how complementary spectroscopic methods can bolster the mechanistic assignment. Collectively, these two studies showcase how detailed mechanistic studies inform on rate-limiting elementary steps in catalysis and other key processes underpinning catalysis. Second, I present analytical strategies to interrogate catalysts operating under thermodynamic control, centered on the case study of [Ni II (P 2 Ph N 2 Bn ) 2 ] 2+ (P 2 Ph N 2 Bn = 1,5-dibenzyl-3,7-diphenyl-1,5-diaza-3,7-diphosphacyclooctane). Here, the application of nonaqueous Pourbaix theory to extract thermodynamic information is introduced, and the construction of a coupled Pourbaix diagram is detailed. This study identifies ligand-based protonation as the key process that places catalysis under thermodynamic control and influences the reaction mechanism. Together, the work detailed in this Account showcases the utility of electroanalytical methods to disentangle complex reaction mechanisms and extract key thermochemical and kinetic parameters for elementary steps of catalysis. Through detailed presentation of the key analytical expressions that underpin these analyses, this Account seeks to facilitate the adoption of cyclic voltammetry by the community to fully extract kinetic, thermochemical, and mechanistic information on electrochemical small-molecule activation.

catalysts↗

A Nearly Zero-Strain Li-Rich Rock-Salt Oxide with Multielectron Redox Reactions as a Cathode for Li-Ion Batteries

Li-rich oxide cathodes are drawing increasing attention as next-generation cathode materials for the development of high-energy-density Li-ion batteries due to their strikingly high capacities. However, transition-metal migration, irreversible structural phase transformations, and the irreversible release of oxygen are responsible for rapid capacity and voltage decay. This study reports a Li-rich cation-ordered rock-salt oxide Li x V 0.4 Ti 0.4 O 2 (LVTO, x = 0.97/1.2) with space group Fd$\bar{3}$m that delivers a high capacity of over 250 mAh g -1 and capacity retention up to 89% after 50 cycles. A comprehensive experimental analysis confirms that the capacity can be attributed to the reversible V 3+ /V 5+ multielectron cationic redox reactions and a minor contribution from reversible anionic redox reactions. Importantly, LVTO exhibits nearly zero-strain behavior upon (dis)charge cycling cycles, which is associated with reversible V migration from octahedral to tetrahedral sites. Here our results demonstrate that Li-rich rock-salt oxide LVTO could be a promising cobalt-free cathode material for Li-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗