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DOE OSTI2025

Single-shot in-line x-ray phase-contrast imaging of void-shockwave interactions in fusion energy materials

Recent breakthroughs in nuclear fusion, specifically the report of reactions exceeding scientific breakeven at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), highlight the potential of inertial fusion energy (IFE) as a sustainable and virtually limitless energy source. However, further progress in IFE requires characterization of defects in ablator materials and how they affect fuel capsule compression. Voids within the ablator can degrade energy yield, but their impact on the density distribution has primarily been studied through simulations, with limited high-resolution experimental validation. To address this, we used the x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) at the matter in extreme conditions (MECs) instrument at the Linac coherent light source (LCLS) to capture 2D x-ray phase-contrast (XPC) images of a void-bearing sample with a composition similar to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ablators. By driving a compressive shockwave through the sample using MEC's long-pulse laser system, we analyzed how voids influence shockwave propagation and density distribution during compression. To quantify this impact, we extracted phase information using two phase retrieval algorithms. First, we applied the contrast transfer function (CTF) method, paired with Tikhonov regularization and a fast optimization approach to generate an initial phase estimate. We then refined the result using a projected gradient descent (PGD) method that works directly with the sample's refractive index. Comparing these results with radiation adaptive grid Eulerian (xRAGE) radiation hydrodynamic simulations enables identification of model validation needs or improvements. By calculating phase maps in situ, it becomes possible to reconstruct areal density maps, improving understanding of laser-capsule interactions and advancing IFE research.

Hodge, D. S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing degraded visual environments with scanning lenses to improve contrast recovery

Atmospheric aerosols, such as fog and smoke, degrade optical signals via the scattering and absorption of light, making it difficult to recover information from the surrounding environment. Here, we present a technique that measures the angular distribution of light in scattering environments to help recover these degraded optical signals. This is done by passing a collimated beam through the aerosol environment and collecting the scattered and unscattered light with an f-theta scan lens. The lens transforms the angular distribution of the scattered light into the linear domain, mapping the collected light onto a detector. The measured angular scattering distribution is then used to estimate the point spread function of the environment at an arbitrary stand-off distance. This point spread function can be used to deconvolve images blurred by the aerosol environment in which the angular scattering distribution was initially measured. With this approach, we demonstrate improvements in the effective resolution of deblurred images up to 26% over a 120-cm stand-off distance. Experimentation was performed in the Sandia National Laboratories tabletop fog chamber, a platform that generates aerosol environments analogous to real-world fogs. We intend to leverage this technique in future work to develop a low-SWaP system for the in situ characterization of aerosol environments.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model-free control for frequency response support in microgrids utilizing wind turbines

Islanded microgrids integrated with renewable energy resources bring additional challenges to the primary frequency control due to their power-electronic interfaced generations. Developing an efficient control strategy for inertia emulation and frequency response support of microgrids is becoming an important issue. Wind turbine dynamics, however, will degrade the emulated inertial and primary responses with most traditional control strategies. On the other hand, compensation methods often require the knowledge of system models at the design stage and state estimation for feedback once deployed online. To overcome these challenges, this paper explores a model-free control (MFC) strategy to emulate the desired inertia and support the frequency response of a diesel-wind microgrid system. Additionally, the proposed MFC strategy utilizes a model reference concept to obtain guaranteed inertial response and improve the frequency response of microgrids. This work considers different control strategies with different operating points. The proposed controller is implemented and verified using the modified 33-bus full nonlinear model of the three-phase diesel-wind system in Simulink. Simulation results demonstrate the improved frequency response by precisely emulating the desired inertia using the MFC strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2023 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.2 million systems installed through year-end 2022, representing more than 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis The report also includes a multi-variate regression analysis to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2022.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on 25 August 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on 29 August 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 in. (150 cm) of rain over a 5-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar dataset to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period 25–29 August2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared with the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed drop size distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value ofa50.015 andb50.600 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David Billings Wolff↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Ceramic Membranes/Modules for Ultra Efficient Hydrogen (H2) Production/Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Capture for Coal-Based Polygeneration Plants: Fabrication, Testing, and CFD Modeling

Inorganic membrane-based systems are a promising technology for precombustion CO2 capture with simultaneous H2 production. State-of-the-art packages for high temperature and pressure service consist of multiple tube membrane bundles prepared in a "candle filter" configuration, in which the membrane tubes are open at one end and sealed at the other. This configuration is used for practical reasons, specifically the need to minimize problems due to thermal expansion mismatch between the ceramic tube bundle and the steel housing. However, the primary technical problem with the candle filter format for commercial-scale installations is the inability to purge the tube side (typically the permeate side), a feature that is crucial for high H2 recovery. In this study, the focus is to design and fabricate the first dual-end open full ceramic multiple tube membrane bundle that enables tube side (permeate) purge for gas separation applications. An additional key feature of this design is the simplified module layout, as the membrane bundles can be installed end-to-end with tube side (permeate) flow directly from one bundle to the next. This layout simplifies the membrane to housing seals and yields significant improvement in membrane packing density. Detailed focus areas in our studies include: (i) Materials development and preparation of the tube-to-tube sheet potting for the dual-ended bundle; (ii) the sealing and optimal module configuration design to minimize membrane stress upon module mounting; (iii) the demonstration, via the fabrication of CMS and Pd-alloy membranes supported on full-size, dual-ended ceramic support bundles, of the first example of a purgeable ceramic membrane and module; and (iv) development of a CFD model of the membrane module for calculation of feed flow distribution, and for use in scale-up, and capital cost estimating. The CFD model was validated using experimental data with the multi-tubular membrane system, employing He/N2 as a model gas mixture (surrogate for H2/CO2), and has been shown to be quite accurate. Employing the model, we are able to study the effects of operating pressure and temperature, feed and sweep gas flow rates, and the choice of membrane tube configuration on system performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Ceramic Membranes/Modules for Ultra Efficient Hydrogen (H2) Production/Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Capture for Coal-Based Polygeneration Plants: Fabrication, Testing and CFD Modeling

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period August 25-29, 2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared to the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed Drop Size Distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value of α=0.015 and β=0.600 and β=0.625 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David B Wolff↗

NASA NTRS2013

The GLAS Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for Precision Orbit Determination (POD)

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) was the sole instrument for NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission. The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to make ice sheet elevation measurements of the polar regions. Additional goals were to measure the global distribution of clouds and aerosols and to map sea ice, land topography and vegetation. ICESat was the benchmark Earth Observing System (EOS) mission to be used to determine the mass balance of the ice sheets, as well as for providing cloud property information, especially for stratospheric clouds common over polar areas. The GLAS instrument operated from 2003 to 2009 and provided multi-year elevation data needed to determine changes in sea ice freeboard, land topography and vegetation around the globe, in addition to elevation changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This document describes the Precision Orbit Determination (POD) algorithm for the ICESat mission. The problem of determining an accurate ephemeris for an orbiting satellite involves estimating the position and velocity of the satellite from a sequence of observations. The ICESatGLAS elevation measurements must be very accurately geolocated, combining precise orbit information with precision pointing information. The ICESat mission POD requirement states that the position of the instrument should be determined with an accuracy of 5 and 20 cm (1-s) in radial and horizontal components, respectively, to meet the science requirements for determining elevation change.

Rim, Hyung Jin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Coupled Inertial Navigation and Flush Air Data Sensing Algorithm for Atmosphere Estimation

This paper describes an algorithm for atmospheric state estimation that is based on a coupling between inertial navigation and flush air data sensing pressure measurements. In this approach, the full navigation state is used in the atmospheric estimation algorithm along with the pressure measurements and a model of the surface pressure distribution to directly estimate atmospheric winds and density using a nonlinear weighted least-squares algorithm. The approach uses a high fidelity model of atmosphere stored in table-look-up form, along with simplified models of that are propagated along the trajectory within the algorithm to provide prior estimates and covariances to aid the air data state solution. Thus, the method is essentially a reduced-order Kalman filter in which the inertial states are taken from the navigation solution and atmospheric states are estimated in the filter. The algorithm is applied to data from the Mars Science Laboratory entry, descent, and landing from August 2012. Reasonable estimates of the atmosphere and winds are produced by the algorithm. The observability of winds along the trajectory are examined using an index based on the discrete-time observability Gramian and the pressure measurement sensitivity matrix. The results indicate that bank reversals are responsible for adding information content to the system. The algorithm is then applied to the design of the pressure measurement system for the Mars 2020 mission. The pressure port layout is optimized to maximize the observability of atmospheric states along the trajectory. Linear covariance analysis is performed to assess estimator performance for a given pressure measurement uncertainty. The results indicate that the new tightly-coupled estimator can produce enhanced estimates of atmospheric states when compared with existing algorithms.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Transient Thermal Analyses of Passive Systems on SCEPTOR X-57

As efficiency, emissions, and noise become increasingly prominent considerations in aircraft design, turning to an electric propulsion system is a desirable solution. Achieving the intended benefits of distributed electric propulsion (DEP) requires thermally demanding high power systems, presenting a different set of challenges compared to traditional aircraft propulsion. The embedded nature of these heat sources often preclude the use of traditional thermal management systems in order to maximize performance, with less opportunity to exhaust waste heat to the surrounding environment. This paper summarizes the thermal analyses of X-57 vehicle subsystems that don't employ externally air-cooled heat sinks. The high-power battery, wires, high-lift motors, and aircraft outer surface are subjected to heat loads with stringent thermal constraints. The temperature of these components are tracked transiently, since they never reach a steady-state equilibrium. Through analysis and testing, this report demonstrates that properly characterizing the material properties is key to accurately modeling peak temperature of these systems, with less concern for spatial thermal gradients. Experimentally validated results show the thermal profile of these systems can be sufficiently estimated using reduced order approximations.

Thermal Analyses↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By ERAD [Slides]

Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Power System (ERAD) is a free, open-source Python toolkit for estimating the energy and service impacts of hazards like earthquakes and flooding. It uses a graph-based approach to capture high resolution connectivity among the grid, critical services, and customers and rapidly compute household level metrics and aggregated statistics across large distribution systems. It uses asset fragility curves that relate hazard severity to survival probability for power system equipment including cables, transformers, substations, etc. The tool is designed to be modular and extensible, allowing it to interface with third-party hazard simulators and integrate into broader resilience analysis workflows. ERAD enables researchers, students, communities, distribution utilities, and other stakeholders to understand hazard impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different programs to improve energy resilience. The webinar was hosted by NLR researcher Aadil Latif.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distribution Function Instead of Steady-State Assumption in Time-Series Simulation

The quasi-steady-state assumption in time-series simulation is inadequate to model phenomena of interest to energy system integration such as inverter clipping, sell-back of excess electricity to a utility and utility hosting capacity, and battery throughput. Researchers are working on stochastic modeling, higher-resolution time series data, and machine learning approaches to address this need. This poster describes a distribution function that allows a maximum value, minimum value, and shape to the curve that can vary within each time-step based only on data inputs at the resolution of that time step (eg. Hourly). The distribution function is not used to synthesize high-resolution data, rather scalar integrals are used to calculate the quantities of interest within each time step. The form of the distribution function shows significant reduction in error when compared to 1 minute data and commercial software employing the distribution function (HOMER Pro version 14.3 and higher) shows a much improved estimate of inverter clipping in an example.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of system thermal-hydraulics code using critical flow experimental data

The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology in nuclear system thermal-hydraulic studies necessitates a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties in system code predictions. The forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) process involves the propagation of input uncertainties through the computational models to obtain uncertainties in the outputs. To this end, achieving an accurate estimation of input uncertainties is important, which is the focus of inverse UQ (IUQ). Traditionally, research in Bayesian IUQ within the nuclear engineering domain has largely relied on single-level Bayesian inference. While being effective for relatively small datasets, this approach encounters limitations for cases with large datasets. The use of a single-level model may prove inefficient, as the resultant posterior distributions can significantly differ when distinct subsets of data are employed. To address this issue, we employ an hierarchical Bayesian model for IUQ. Furthermore, this approach involves organizing observations into different groups based on the test conditions, thereby accommodating varying calibration parameters across these distinct groups. In this study, we developed and implemented a hierarchical Bayesian IUQ method to consider the grouping effect of critical flow measurement data from various geometries. Comparing the outcomes of IUQ under different selections of test data using hierarchical Bayesian IUQ against those obtained from single-level Bayesian IUQ, the forward propagation of hierarchical Bayesian IUQ results demonstrates a notably improved agreement with the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Robust Modal Filtering and Control of the X-56A Model with Simulated Fiber Optic Sensor Failures

The X-56A aircraft is a remotely-piloted aircraft with flutter modes intentionally designed into the flight envelope. The X-56A program must demonstrate flight control while suppressing all unstable modes. A previous X-56A model study demonstrated a distributed-sensing-based active shape and active flutter suppression controller. The controller relies on an estimator which is sensitive to bias. This estimator is improved herein, and a real-time robust estimator is derived and demonstrated on 1530 fiber optic sensors. It is shown in simulation that the estimator can simultaneously reject 230 worst-case fiber optic sensor failures automatically. These sensor failures include locations with high leverage (or importance). To reduce the impact of leverage outliers, concentration based on a Mahalanobis trim criterion is introduced. A redescending M-estimator with Tukey bisquare weights is used to improve location and dispersion estimates within each concentration step in the presence of asymmetry (or leverage). A dynamic simulation is used to compare the concentrated robust estimator to a state-of-the-art real-time robust multivariate estimator. The estimators support a previously-derived mu-optimal shape controller. It is found that during the failure scenario, the concentrated modal estimator keeps the system stable.

Modal Filtering↗