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DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Thermo-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical Behavior of Anisotropic Granite for Geologic Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste: A Core-Scale Laboratory Investigation

The coupled thermo-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) behavior of rock within an Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) is critical for the safety and long-term performance of a geological repository for high-level radioactive wastes. While many laboratory experiments have been conducted to investigate EDZ rocks, the flow and deformation characteristics resulting from anisotropic rock textures and microcrack distribution under triaxial loading and elevated temperatures remain poorly understood. Particularly, cracks at various scales serve as fast paths for fluid flow and solute transport and present as focal points of mechanical weakness, which complicate the coupled THMC processes in anisotropic EDZ rocks and challenge modeling predictions. Here, in this study, a series of core-scale experiments was conducted on three granite samples under repository-relevant conditions. These rock samples were obtained from the Grimsel Underground Research Laboratory (URL), featured by anisotropic minerals (represented by bedding layers) and microcrack distributions and coarse cm-scale grain sizes. During the experiments, samples were subjected to an elevated temperature at 90 °C and different triaxial loading conditions either by radial (normal to bedding layers) or axial (parallel to bedding layers) compaction. Water was injected into the samples, and the rock permeability evolutions and effluent water chemistry were monitored closely. For intact samples, thermal expansion of minerals at 90 °C resulted in a large, 75% irreversible permeability reduction and rock strengthening under radial compaction, while thermal impact was limited to a 15% permeability reduction under axial compaction. In contrast, for a sample containing open cracks, the growth of fractures during the experiment resulted in an abrupt permeability increase and fast failure at 90 °C. The effluent water chemistry indicates much more considerable mineral dissolution from large shear sliding than that in rocks dominated by mechanical compaction. These results helped better understand the coupled THMC processes in anisotropic rocks containing cracks, evaluate the behaviors of EDZ rocks, and predict the long-term evolution of EDZ for the performance of the repositories.

Coupled THMC processes↗

DOE OSTI2023

A deep learning model for automatic analysis of cavities in irradiated materials

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a commonly used technique in materials science for defect investigation. Quantitative analysis of defects is important for understanding the properties of a material, but manual analysis of TEM micrographs can be time-consuming and prone to error, especially when the defects have irregular shapes rather than spherical shapes. Many existing methods or deep learning models do not handle a wide range of sizes for the same object type within a single image. In this work, we present a framework that enables users to train an instance segmentation model called Mask R- CNN on any microstructure dataset, perform multi-detection on the same image at different scales, and obtain properties (e.g., size, area) of the objects based on the desired shape (e.g., circle, ellipse, rectangle). Additionally, we have developed a parallel detection module that uses multiple GPUs to increase the efficiency of the object detection process. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework using a set of TEM images of cavities with different shapes, size distributions, and background contrasts. Finally, we show that the performance of our model in terms of density, size, and swelling of the cavities is comparable to the human average and that our model achieves the highest recall value compared to existing methods due to the use of image multi-rescaling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Organic matter distribution in the icy environments of Taylor Valley, Antarctica

Glaciers can accumulate and release organic matter affecting the structure and function of associated terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Here we analyzed 18 ice cores collected from six locations in Taylor Valley (McMurdo Dry Valleys), Antarctica to determine the spatial abundance and quality of organic matter, and the spatial distribution of bacterial density and community structure from the terminus of the Taylor Glacier to the coast (McMurdo Sound). Our results showed that dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) concentrations in the ice core samples increased from the Taylor Glacier to McMurdo Sound, a pattern also shown by bacterial cell density. Fluorescence Excitation Emission Matrices Spectroscopy (EEMs) and multivariate parallel factor (PARAFAC) modeling identified one humic-like (C1) and one protein-like (C2) component in ice cores whose fluorescent intensities all increased from the Polar Plateau to the coast. The fluorescence index showed that the bioavailability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) also decreased from the Polar Plateau to the coast. Partial least squares path modeling analysis revealed that bacterial abundance was the main positive biotic factor influencing both the quantity and quality of organic matter. Marine aerosol influenced the spatial distribution of DOC more than katabatic winds in the ice cores. Certain bacterial taxa showed significant correlations with DOC and POC concentrations. Collectively, our results show the tight connectivity among organic matter spatial distribution, bacterial abundance and meteorology in the McMurdo Dry Valley ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report summarizes the activities conducted under the DOE VTO funded project DE- EE0008451, where ABB Inc. (ABB), in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), APS Global (APS), and XOS Trucks (XOS) pursued the development of a cyber-resilient extreme fast charging (XFC) management system. This project entitled Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) focuses on a resilient architecture for smart charging EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) device control and Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) features that can be added at the charging site depot level to increase cybersecurity. The project was split into two budget periods focused first on developing the threat model and resilient control concepts and second on testing, improving, and validating those developed resilient control algorithms and features with a focus on key vulnerabilities identified during the threat assessment portion of the project. During the first budget period of the CyberX project, the ABB led team focused on activities to identify, model, and quantitatively prioritize high-impact attack scenarios with potential cyber-physical effects while also modeling and developing concepts for a resilient control system that could securely address integration of DERs and other resources with EV charging. Development of the security focused XFC management system (XMS) was accomplished first by offline simulation using a developed XFC station or depot with 480V input level and simulating measurement inputs to monitoring and control systems in concept development. A representative distribution grid model was developed supporting an EV charging site model with BESS and 6 general EV charging models. These EV charging models allowed multiple configurations of charging level, multiple connected protection and measurement devices, and simulation function to show general compromise of EV, BESS, and protection features based on parallel threat analysis. During the second budget period, the EV site and supporting systems model was developed in more detail and converted from offline model to real-time to real-time with EV charging hardware in the loop (HIL). The resilient control architecture developed as concept in the first part of the project was further tested and validated for integration of local energy resources and XFC charging station site equipment while maintaining cybersecure operating principles. The proposed resilient architecture for smart charging and cybersecurity features consists of two main concepts developed and tested within the project. The first concept is an XFC management system (XMS) consisting of a hardware gateway, software platform, and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) or Distribution Management System integration components. The second concept is a Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) which forms a primarily software-related subsystem of the total CyberX solution focused on monitoring system measurements, estimation of measurement states, and predicting current at the utility point of interaction based on machine learning for anomaly detection.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble models for circuit topology estimation, fault detection and classification in distribution systems

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous fault detection, classification, and topology estimation for adaptive protection of distribution systems. The methodology estimates the probability of the occurrence of each one of these events by using a hybrid structure that combines three sub-systems, a convolutional neural network for topology estimation, a fault detection based on predictive residual analysis, and a standard support vector machine with probabilistic output for fault classification. The input to all these sub-systems is the local voltage and current measurements. A convolutional neural network uses these local measurements in the form of sequential data to extract features and estimate the topology conditions. The fault detector is constructed with a Bayesian stage (a multitask Gaussian process) that computes a predictive distribution (assumed to be Gaussian) of the residuals using the input. Since the distribution is known, these residuals can be transformed into a Standard distribution, whose values are then introduced into a one-class support vector machine. The structure allows using a one-class support vector machine without parameter cross-validation, so the fault detector is fully unsupervised. Finally, a support vector machine uses the input to perform the classification of the fault types. All three sub-systems can work in a parallel setup for both performance and computation efficiency. In conclusion, we test all three sub-systems included in the structure on a modified IEEE123 bus system, and we compare and evaluate the results with standard approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Au assisted smooth ultrathin epitaxial ZnO film grown by pulsed laser deposition on sapphire(0001)

High quality ZnO has applications in photonics and electronics. Literature has shown that continuous, but rough ZnO film can be grown on sapphire substrate by pulsed laser deposition (PLD). In this work, ZnO and Au were co-deposited by PLD on sapphire(0001) substrates from a single ZnO target overlaid with an Au strip that serves as a catalyst. The reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED) patterns show paired double stripes from sample of ZnO-Au where the difference of in-plane lattice parameters between ZnO and Au is 11.4 %. The two-dimensional (2D) reciprocal space maps constructed from azimuthal RHEED (ARHEED) patterns reveal parallel epitaxial relationship between ZnO and Au in the continuous ZnO-Au film on sapphire substrate. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) cross section images and energy dispersive spectroscopy maps show a minute amount of Au nanocrystals distributed in the entire ultrathin ZnO film. Atomic force microscopy shows the root-mean-square roughness of the surface of ultrathin ZnO film with Au is in the sub-nm range. The ARHEED and TEM results show that a couple of atomic percentages of Au co-deposited with ZnO catalyzes the growth of smooth ultrathin epitaxial ZnO film.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radial structure and formation of the Milky Way disc

The formation of the Galactic disc is an enthusiastically debated issue. Numerous studies and models seek to identify the dominant physical process(es) that shaped its observed properties; for example, satellite accretion, starburst, quenching, gas infall, and stellar radial migration. Taking advantage of the improved coverage of the inner Milky Way provided by the SDSS DR16 APOGEE catalogue and of the ages published in the APOGEE-AstroNN Value Added Catalogue (VAC), we examined the radial evolution of the chemical and age properties of the Galactic stellar disc with the aim of better constraining its formation. Using a sample of 199 307 giant stars with precise APOGEE abundances and APOGEE-AstroNN ages, selected in a ±2 kpc layer around the galactic plane, we assessed the dependency as a function of guiding radius of (i) the median metallicity, (ii) the ridge lines of the [Fe/H] – [Mg/Fe] and age–[Mg/Fe] distributions, and (iii) the age distribution function (ADF). The giant star sample allows us to probe the radial behaviour of the Galactic disc from R g = 0 to 14–16 kpc. The thick disc [Fe/H] – [Mg/Fe] ridge lines follow closely grouped parallel paths, supporting the idea that the thick disc did form from a well-mixed medium. However, the ridge lines present a small drift in [Mg/Fe], which decreases with increasing guiding radius. At sub-solar metallicity, the intermediate and outer thin disc [Fe/H] – [Mg/Fe] ridge lines follow parallel sequences shifted to lower metallicity as the guiding radius increases. We interpret this pattern as the signature of a dilution of the interstellar medium from R g ~ 6 kpc to the outskirts of the disc, which occurred before the onset of the thin disc formation. The APOGEE-AstroNN VAC provides stellar ages for statistically significant samples of thin disc stars from the Galactic centre up to R g ~ 14 kpc. An important result provided by this dataset is that the thin disc presents evidence of an inside-out formation up to R g ~ 10 – 12 kpc. Moreover, about ~7 Gyr ago, the [Mg/Fe] ratio in the outer thin disc (R g > 10 kpc) was higher by about ~0.03–0.05 dex than in the more internal regions of the thin disc. This could be the fossil record of a pollution of the outer disc gas reservoir by the thick disc during its starburst phase.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bolometer tomography on Wendelstein 7-X for study of radiation asymmetry

The algorithm for bolometer tomography at Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) has been recently improved using a novel regularization functional, based on relative gradient smoothing (RGS) of the sought radiation profile. It has been validated using radiation patterns provided by 3D modeling under real plasma conditions as phantoms and then applied to bolometer measurements performed during the first divertor operation phase of W7-X. The following results are presented: 1) edge-localized 2D radiation patterns with clearly resolved magnetic island radiation structures, 2) an up-down asymmetry in the impurity radiation that is not captured by the 3D edge plasma transport modeling, 3) reversal of the asymmetry with reversed magnetic field direction. Further analysis reveals a poloidal variation of the emissivity in the outer confined plasma region with a field-direction dependent asymmetry, also supported by the soft X-ray measurements. This asymmetry is considered to be related to asymmetric impurity distributions, driven by the pronounced ion-impurity friction force at the plasma edge where the collisionality of the W7-X plasma is sufficiently high to develop impurity asymmetry as predicted by neoclassical theory of parallel impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methodology and Application of Physical Security Effectiveness Based on Dynamic Force-on-Force Modeling

This report describes the research and development being performed at INL towards a dynamic modeling and simulation framework to enable physical security optimization at commercial nuclear power plants. The framework is based on the dynamic modeling tool EMRALD and is demonstrated for applications that can result in physical security optimization. Two main applications are presented: 1. Integrating FLEX portable equipment performance with FOF models of a plant’s physical security posture, and 2. Location optimization of bullet resistant enclosure. The generic framework for modeling FLEX portable equipment is described in detail, followed by a case study modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical PWR. Two distinct FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial FOF tool, AVERT, are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of FLEX performance is performed in RELAP5 and integrated with the EMRALD simulations to provide more realistic timelines in the models. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security. The objective of location optimization of BRE is to determine the best location in the plant for a new BRE being planned by the plant to enhance their physical security effectiveness. The plant physical security FOF model is integrated with EMRALD that performs Monte Carlo simulation to run different attack scenarios and a discrete set of potential BRE locations. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the most effective location for the BRE. The optimization approach can be extended to wide applications such as location optimization of remotely operated weapons and other strategic fixed assets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiphysics Demonstration of Temperature-Driven Assembly Bowing in SFRs using MOOSE-Based Codes

Core bowing is an important passive safety mechanism in liquid metal cooled fast reactors. When the core restraint system is properly designed, temperature and flux gradients influence assemblies in the core to bow into less reactive configurations during accident scenarios, resulting in negative reactivity feedback. Prediction of core bowing involves complex interplay of radiation transport, impacts of fluid flow and heat transfer on duct temperature, and mechanical responses to the induced temperature and flux gradients. Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program [1], an integrated multiphysics approach is being developed to model the core bowing phenomena in liquid metal-cooled fast reactors with the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [2]. In this methodology, the MOOSE-based reactor physics code Griffin [3] will solve the neutron transport equation and determine the power distribution. With the detailed power distribution from Griffin, the subchannel analysis codes MOOSE-Subchannel [4] and Pronghorn [5] are utilized to calculate the assembly temperature distribution. MOOSE’s Solid Mechanics [6] and Contact [7] Modules are leveraged to calculate the thermal expansion and duct bowing displacement with the duct wall temperature from thermal hydraulics calculation. In this work, an initial one-way coupling demonstration of the integrated multiphysics approach has been performed on a seven-assembly problem based on the sodium-cooled fast reactor ABR-1000 design [8]. The neutronics calculation with Griffin is not yet involved in the current simulation. MOOSE-Subchannel and Pronghorn evaluate fluid and solid temperature based on a fixed power distribution. In addition, one-way coupling is utilized in this coupled calculation, via Pronghorn passing the duct temperature data to the MOOSE Solid Mechanics calculation. An assessment of the Solid Mechanics module was performed in parallel to verify duct bowing behavior with duct-to-duct contact phenomenon [9]. The displacement from MOOSE Solid Mechanics is not yet transferred back and utilized in the Pronghorn and MOOSE-Subchannel calculation. This model will be available on the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB) repository [10]. Future stages of this work will involve solving problems of increasing complexity as well as adding more physics (e.g. reactor physics) to the integrated workflow to reach the end goal of modeling the core bowing phenomenon with an integrated multiphysics workflow.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fe Oxidation and Species Distribution at the Rock–Fluid Interface of Marcellus Shale Reacted with Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid

Hydraulic fracturing of shale reservoirs resulted in significant opportunity for increased oil and gas production in the United States. Rock-fluid interactions can cause mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions that lead to permeability changes in the shale matrix, which ultimately may affect transport pathways and hydrocarbon production. Understanding the distribution of secondary precipitates, such as barite and Fe(III) (hydro)oxides, and cation leaching at the rock-fluid interface is an important step to further investigate how these geochemical processes can change permeability and transport pathways. In this study, thin sections of the fracture-matrix interface were made from reacted Marcellus shale cores. The thin sections were characterized using synchrotron X-ray fluorescence imaging and synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Fe species with different oxidation states were identified in the maps, together with barite and Ca distribution. The results show that ferrihydrite, as newly formed Fe(III)-bearing precipitates, aligned well with the border of the Ca (e.g., calcite) leaching region in the reaction front. Some Fe-containing clay also dissolved, but the dissolution region for the clay was not as deep as the calcite. Further, the reaction front is about three times deeper in the direction parallel to the shale bedding than that perpendicular to the bedding. The Ca leaching region can be an index for reaction front detection for Marcellus shale. Reactive transport modeling was conducted and the predicted Ca leaching boarder align well with ferrihydrite precipitation, consistent with the experimental observation. The carbonate mineral dissolution can be crucial to promote fluid access into the shale matrix. Together with our previous study on the shale reactive surface, this follow-up study showed similar Ca leaching region and Fe(III) precipitates distribution in the reaction front regardless of barite precipitation on the surface, indicating that the barite coatings on the surface may not pose a significant impact on reactive transport at the shale-fluid interface.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of streamflow in a 30 km long reach spanning 5 years using OpenFOAM 5.x

Abstract. Developing accurate and efficient modeling techniques for streamflow at the tens-of-kilometers spatial scale and multi-year temporal scale is critical for evaluating and predicting the impact of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics. However, achieving such a goal is challenging because of limited surveys of streambed hydraulic roughness, uncertain boundary condition specifications, and high computational costs. We demonstrate that accurate and efficient three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic modeling of natural rivers at 30 km and 5-year scales is feasible using the following three techniques within OpenFOAM, an open-source computational fluid dynamics platform: (1) generating a distributed hydraulic roughness field for the streambed by integrating water-stage observation data, a rough wall theory, and a local roughness optimization and adjustment strategy; (2) prescribing the boundary condition for the inflow and outflow by integrating precomputed results of a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model with the 3-D model; and (3) reducing computational time using multiple parallel runs constrained by 1-D inflow and outflow boundary conditions. Streamflow modeling for a 30 km long reach in the Columbia River (CR) over 58 months can be achieved in less than 6 d using 1.1 million CPU hours. The mean error between the modeled and the observed water stages for our simulated CR reach ranges from −16 to 9 cm (equivalent to approximately ±7 % relative to the average water depth) at seven locations during most of the years between 2011 and 2019. We can reproduce the velocity distribution measured by the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The correlation coefficients of the depth-averaged velocity between the model and ADCP measurements are in the range between 0.71 and 0.83 at 75 % of the survey cross sections. With the validated model, we further show that the relative importance of dynamic pressure versus hydrostatic pressure varies with discharge variations and topography heterogeneity. Given the model's high accuracy and computational efficiency, the model framework provides a generic approach to evaluate and predict the impacts of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics at tens-of-kilometers and decadal scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging FPGA Advantages for Quicker Data Processing for LBNF

The Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) will deliver a 2.4 MW muon neutrino beam from Fermilab to the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), requiring unprecedented precision in beamline alignment to achieve DUNE's neutrino oscillation measurement goals. Vertical misalignments of beamline components as small as 0.5 mm can contribute 6-7\% uncertainty in predicted neutrino flux, necessitating sub-0.1 mm alignment monitoring capabilities. The Horn Location Sensor (HLS) system employs frequency sweep interferometry (FSI) in a distributed hydrostatic leveling network to achieve the required precision under harsh radiation conditions up to 5000 kRad/year. Traditional FSI implementations suffer from laser sweep nonlinearities that degrade resolution and require computationally intensive post-processing corrections using gas reference cells. This work presents a real-time FPGA-based implementation of the HLS data acquisition and processing system using a sweep tracker interferometer for dynamic sweep linearization. The system utilizes a PYNQ-Z2 FPGA with programmable logic implementing parallel 16k-point FFT processing across four channels, synchronized by the sweep tracker signal to eliminate post-processing requirements. Spectral performance testing demonstrates significant improvements in peak sharpness compared to traditional fixed-frequency digitization. The FPGA implementation enables real-time displacement monitoring with processing speeds orders of magnitude faster than software-based approaches, essential for the operational requirements of LBNF's eventual distributed sensor network. This advancement in real-time FSI processing directly supports DUNE's precision neutrino physics program by providing the rapid feedback necessary for maintaining stringent beamline alignment tolerances during high-power beam operations.

Rossel, Jacob↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time FPGA Implementation For Frequency Sweep Interferometry In The LBNF Complex

Rossel, A. Jacob [Fermilab; Unlisted]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water transport properties of virtual fractal porous media: Implications for the unsaturated transport properties of cement-based materials

Cement-based materials are more and more recognized as fractal materials. From a practical point of view, fractality means that the pore size distribution can be described using fractal scaling law (i.e. power functions). Here, the simplest scaling law making use of a single fractal dimension was used to generate simple and virtual fractal porous media (based on bundles of parallel cylindrical pores). The capillary curve and permeability (relative and intrinsic) of the virtual porous media were then estimated through theoretical and numerical approaches. The results show that: (1) although bereft of any physical basis, van Genuchten equation bears some fractal information; (2) although highly flexible, van Genuchten equation fails to perfectly fit the capillary curves and can thus generate error in inverse analysis (for intrinsic permeability evaluation) and (3) there seems to be a relation between the intrinsic permeability and van Genuchten pressure parameter.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Social network structure and the spread of complex contagions from a population genetics perspective

Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals’ affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a “complex contagion”. This non-linearity does not typically appear with physically spreading infections, but instead can emerge when the concept that is spreading is subject to game theoretical considerations (e.g. for choices of strategy or behavior) or psychological effects such as social reinforcement and other forms of peer influence (e.g. for ideas, preferences, or opinions). Here we study how the stochastic dynamics of such complex contagions are affected by the underlying network structure. Motivated by simulations of complex contagions on real social networks, we present a framework for analyzing the statistics of contagions with arbitrary non-linear adoption probabilities based on the mathematical tools of population genetics. The central idea is to use an effective lower-dimensional diffusion process to approximate the statistics of the contagion. This leads to a tradeoff between the effects of ”selection” (microscopic tendencies for an idea to spread or die out), random drift, and network structure. Our framework illustrates intuitively several key properties of complex contagions: stronger community structure and network sparsity can significantly enhance the spread, while broad degree distributions dampen the effect of selection compared to random drift. Finally, we show that some structural features can exhibit critical values that demarcate regimes where global contagions become possible for networks of arbitrary size. Our results draw parallels between the competition of genes in a population and memes in a world of minds and ideas. Our tools provide insight into the spread of information, behaviors, and ideas via social influence, and highlight the role of macroscopic network structure in determining their fate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗