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Results for “distributed inference”

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NASA NTRS1980

Spatial distribution of plasma in the Io torus

In situ measurements of ion densities and temperatures have been analyzed to produce profiles of these plasma parameters along the Voyager 1 inbound trajectory between 7 and 5 Jupiter radii. The temperature profile shows a sharp decrease by a factor of 50 between 5.8 and 5.2 Jupiter radii corresponding to a temperature gradient of 7 x 10 to the 5th per Jupiter radius. The electron density profile, inferred from the ion density measurements, has two maxima at 5.7 and 5.3 Jupiter radii. A two-dimensional model of the spatial distribution of various ionic species in the Io plasma torus has been constructed. Using this model a contour map of electron density in a meridional plane has been made, it exhibits a well-defined inner edge to the torus at 5.6 Jupiter radii. The contour map of S(+) ion density indicates that most of the S(+) ions are concentrated close to the centrifugal symmetry surface and radially inward of the larger electron density maximum near 5.7 Jupiter radii.

Bagenal, F.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Remote measurement of aerosol particle characteristics and their significance to meteorology

Theoretical models for the calculation of the radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols require the inference of such parameters as optical depth, the complex index of refraction and the equivalent size distribution. A polarimeter and a multispectral radiometer are used for local monitoring of aerosols via ground stations, or global monitoring via spacecraft occultation experiments. It is shown that measurements of optical depth at one wavelength as has been the custom, are insufficient to provide useful information for meteorological calculations, and new experiments and instruments must be devised to take advantage of new theoretical developments.

Kuriyan, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Interiors of the giant planets

Unlike the terrestrial planets, the giant planets - Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune - have retained large amounts of the carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen compounds that were present in their zone of formation. A smaller fraction of the available hydrogen and helium was retained. The distribution and relative amounts of these components in the interiors of the Jovian planets can be inferred from theoretical and experimental data on equations of state and from the planets' hydrostatic equilibrium response to rotation.

Hubbard, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

CN and C2H in IRC +10216

The effects of the production of the radicals CN and C2H from the dissociation of HCN and C2H2 by ambient UV photons in the outer envelope of IRC +10216 are investigated. The spatial distribution of the radicals and their observable millimeter emission-line characteristics are calculated from the inferred abundances of the progenitor species in the envelope of IRC +10216 using photochemical and radiative transfer models. These are compared with available observations to examine whether photoproduction is a possible explanation of the observed emission from these species. The results suggest that the variable abundances induced by photodestruction of their progenitors do affect the observed emission from the radicals.

Huggins, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Isotropic probability measures in infinite dimensional spaces: Inverse problems/prior information/stochastic inversion

Let R be the real numbers, R(n) the linear space of all real n-tuples, and R(infinity) the linear space of all infinite real sequences x = (x sub 1, x sub 2,...). Let P sub n :R(infinity) approaches R(n) be the projection operator with P sub n (x) = (x sub 1,...,x sub n). Let p(infinity) be a probability measure on the smallest sigma-ring of subsets of R(infinity) which includes all of the cylinder sets P sub n(-1) (B sub n), where B sub n is an arbitrary Borel subset of R(n). Let p sub n be the marginal distribution of p(infinity) on R(n), so p sub n(B sub n) = p(infinity)(P sub n to the -1(B sub n)) for each B sub n. A measure on R(n) is isotropic if it is invariant under all orthogonal transformations of R(n). All members of the set of all isotropic probability distributions on R(n) are described. The result calls into question both stochastic inversion and Bayesian inference, as currently used in many geophysical inverse problems.

Backus, George↗

NASA NTRS1987

Isotropic probability measures in infinite-dimensional spaces

Let R be the real numbers, R(n) the linear space of all real n-tuples, and R(infinity) the linear space of all infinite real sequences x = (x sub 1, x sub 2,...). Let P sub in :R(infinity) approaches R(n) be the projection operator with P sub n (x) = (x sub 1,...,x sub n). Let p(infinity) be a probability measure on the smallest sigma-ring of subsets of R(infinity) which includes all of the cylinder sets P sub n(-1) (B sub n), where B sub n is an arbitrary Borel subset of R(n). Let p sub n be the marginal distribution of p(infinity) on R(n), so p sub n(B sub n) = p(infinity) (P sub n to the -1 (B sub n)) for each B sub n. A measure on R(n) is isotropic if it is invariant under all orthogonal transformations of R(n). All members of the set of all isotropic probability distributions on R(n) are described. The result calls into question both stochastic inversion and Bayesian inference, as currently used in many geophysical inverse problems.

Backus, George↗

NASA NTRS1992

Infrared weak quasars

Examples of quasars with anomalously weak IR emission are presented, and the effects of starlight subtraction on estimates of the UV and IR component strengths are discussed. Inferred model parameters are very sensitive to the position of the peak of the UV energy distribution. In many low redshift objects the peak is not seen; even in those objects where the turnover is clear, the turnover may not be intrinsic but instead due to reddening within the quasar host galaxy. The small number of unusual quasars with weak IR emission will be of utility as a probe of the quasar phenomenon in the absence of dominant dust reprocessing.

Mcdowell, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Evidence for Langmuir oscillations and a low density cavity in the Venus magnetotail

We report the discovery of Langmuir oscillations in a very low plasma density region in the Venus magnetotail. These waves are observed more often at 30 kHz, but also at 5.4 kHz indicating densities as low as 0.3 cu cm in the central tail lobe. The Langmuir probe on board the Pioneer Venus Orbiter cannot resolve such a low plasma density. We use the magnetic field strength and the assumption of total pressure balance to infer the electron temperature as a test of the Langmuir wave interpretation. By investigating the spatial distribution of this wave activity we find that the plasma cavity is ordered in a coordinate system defined by the interplanetary magnetic field and is found at either side of the central tail current sheet.

Ho, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Spectral Models of Neutron Star Magnetospheres

We revisit the association of unidentified Galactic plane EGRET sources with tracers of recent massive star formation and death. Up-to-date catalogs of OB associations, SNR's, young pulsars, H2 regions and young open clusters were used in finding counterparts for a recent list of EGRET sources. It has been argued for some time that EGRET source positions are correlated with SNR's and OB associations as a class; we extend such analyses by finding additional counterparts and assessing the probability of individual source identifications. Among the several scenarios relating EGRET sources to massive stars, we focus on young neutron stars as the origin of the gamma-ray emission. The characteristics of the candidate identifications are compared to the known gamma-ray pulsar sample and to detailed Galactic population syntheses using our outer gap pulsar model of gamma-ray emission. Both the spatial distribution and luminosity function of the candidates are in good agreement with the model predictions; we infer that young pulsars can account for the bulk of the excess low latitude EGRET sources. We show that with this identification, the gamma-ray point sources provide an important new window into the history of recent massive star death in the solar neighborhood.

Romani, Roger W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Evidence for Langmuir Oscillations and a Low Density Cavity in the Venus Magnetotail

We report the discovery of Langmuir oscillations in a very low plasma density region in the Venus magnetotail. These waves are observed more often at 30 kHz, but also at 5.4 kHz indicating densities as low as 0.3/cu cm in the central tail lobe. The Langmuir probe on board the Pioneer Venus Orbiter cannot resolve such a low plasma density. We use the magnetic field strength and the assumption of total pressure balance to infer the electron temperature as a test of the Langmuir wave interpretation. By investigating the spatial distribution of this wave activity we find that the plasma cavity is ordered in a coordinate system defined by the interplanetary magnetic field and is found at either side of the central tail current sheet.

Ho, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mineralogical Characterization of Fe-Bearing AGB and Supernova Silicate Grains From the Queen Alexandra Range 99177 Meteorite

Spectroscopic observations of the circumstellar envelopes of evolved O-rich stars indicate the dust is mostly amorphous silicate with olivine-like compositions. Spectral modeling suggests these grains are Fe-rich [Mg/(Mg+Fe) ~0.5], but it is not known whether the Fe is distributed within the silicate matrix or exists as metal inclusions. In contrast, the crystalline silicates are inferred to be extremely Mg-rich [Mg/(Mg+Fe) > 0.95]. The mineralogies and chemical compositions of dust in supernova (SN) remnants are not as well constrained, but abundant silicates of olivine-like and enstatite-like compositions have been fit to the infrared emission features. Silicates in the interstellar medium (ISM) are >99% amor-phous and Fe-bearing. The dearth of crystalline silicates in the ISM requires that some amorphization or destruction mechanisms process these grains.

Nguyen, A. N.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Determination of the ground albedo and the index of absorption of atmospheric particulates by remote sensing. I - Theory

A statistical technique is developed for inferring the optimum values of the ground albedo and the effective imaginary term of the complex refractive index of atmospheric particulates. The procedure compares measurements of the ratio of the hemispheric diffuse to directly transmitted solar flux density at the earth's surface with radiative transfer computations of the same as suggested by Herman et al. (1975). A detailed study is presented which shows the extent to which the ratio of diffuse to direct solar radiation is sensitive to many of the radiative transfer parameters. Results indicate that the optical depth and size distribution of atmospheric aerosol particles are the two parameters which uniquely specify the radiation field to the point where ground albedo and index of absorption can be inferred. Varying the real part of the complex refractive index of atmospheric particulates as well as their vertical distribution is found to have a negligible effect on the diffuse-direct ratio. The statistical procedure utilizes a semi-analytic gradient search method from least-squares theory and includes a detailed error analysis.

King, M. D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS1982

The 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens: The nature of the eruption, with an atmospheric perspective

Mount St. Helens erupted somewhat less than 0.5 cu km of magma (dense rock equivalent) on May 18, 1980. The May 18 event was usually violent. As much 35% of the volume of the airfall material fell outside of the 2.5 mm isopach, which encloses about 88,000 sq km. This extraordinary dispersive power was transmitted by an eruption column which reached heights of more than 20 km. There was a lateral blast (or surge) of unusually large dimensions associated with the onset of the eruption. The magma is dacitic in composition and had a low ( 500 ppm) sulfur content. Distal ashes contain much nonmagmatic (lithic) material, but smaller ( 50 microns m) particles are mostly finely divided magmatic dacite. The grain size distributions of the ash are multimodal, frequently with peaks at 90, 25, and 10 microns. The finer populations fell out faster than their terminal velocities as simple particles would suggest. It is inferred that large proportions of the fine ash fell out as composite particles. This condition greatly reduces the atmospheric burden of silicate particles. Some of the unusual aspects (violence, intense surges, multimodal grain size distributions, lithic content of the ashes) of the eruption may be due to its phreatomagmatic character. The hydrothermal system above the magma may have infiltrated the magma body at the onset of the eruption. An "overprint" of the geochemistry of this hydrothermal system on the geochemistry of the magmatic gas system is likely. One important feature is that reduced gas species may be much more abundant than in many eruptions. Another is that fine ash may form aggregates more readily.

Rose, W. I., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Intelligent Machines in the 21st Century: Automating the Processes of Inference and Inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra toward the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines. in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. However, modern intelligent machines work by inferring knowledge using only their pre-programmed prior knowledge and the data provided. They lack the ability to ask questions, or request data that would aid their inferences. Recent advances in understanding the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which now allows us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper we describe this logic of inference and inquiry using the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory, discuss the far-reaching implications of the methodology, and demonstrate its application with current examples in machine learning. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them to not only make inferences from data, but also decide which question to ask, experiment to perform, or measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution. III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases, deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multipoint hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large-scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galaxies↗

NASA NTRS1972

Magnetospheric electric fields deduced from drifting whistler paths.

Results of a study in which the amplitude of the E-W component E sub w of the convection electric field in the nightside magnetosphere has been inferred from the observed cross-L motions of whistler ducts within the plasmasphere, and several ducts distributed over 1 to 2 earth radii in L space and over plus or minus deg 15 around the longitude of the Eights, Antarctica, whistler station have been tracked simultaneously. The method appears capable of resolving fluctuations in E sub w with period T equal to approximately 15 min and rms amplitude as low as 0.05 mV/m. For variations with T greater than 1 hour the method has a sensitivity of the order of 0.01 mV/m. Three case studies are presented, two of which illustrate convection activity associated with relatively isolated substorms. In these two cases E sub w reversed from westward to eastward for a period following the decay of substorm bay activity. In the third case the substorm bay activity was prolonged, and E sub w remained westward and at enhanced levels until local dawn. Evidence was found that, at least in a limited longitudinal sector, perturbing substorm E sub w fields can penetrate deep within the plasmasphere. In two of the case studies comparisons of E sub w and the interplanetary magnetic-field theta component show evidence of a possible relation based on brief (less than or equal to 1 hour) southward excursions but not on long preceding southward events.

Carpenter, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Effects of vegetation canopy structure on remotely sensed canopy temperatures

The effects of vegetation canopy structure on thermal infrared sensor response must be understood before vegetation surface temperatures of canopies with low percent ground cover can be accurately inferred. The response of a sensor is a function of vegetation geometric structure, the vertical surface temperature distribution of the canopy components, and sensor view angle. Large deviations between the nadir sensor effective radiant temperature (ERT) and vegetation ERT for a soybean canopy were observed throughout the growing season. The nadir sensor ERT of a soybean canopy with 35 percent ground cover deviated from the vegetation ERT by as much as 11 C during the mid-day. These deviations were quantitatively explained as a function of canopy structure and soil temperature. Remote sensing techniques which determine the vegetation canopy temperature(s) from the sensor response need to be studied.

Kimes, D. S.↗