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DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract Income distributions are a growing area of interest in the examination of equity impacts brought on by climate change and its responses. Such impacts are especially important at subnational levels, but projections of income distributions at these levels are scarce. Here, we project U.S. state-level income distributions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply a non-parametric approach, specifically a recently developed principal components algorithm to generate net income distributions for deciles across 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. We produce these projections to 2100 for three SSP scenarios in combination with varying projections of GDP per capita to represent a wide range of possible futures and uncertainties. In the generation of these scenarios, we also generated tax adjusted historical deciles by U.S. states, which we used for validating model performance. Our method thus produces income distributions by decile for each state, reflecting the variability in state income, population, and tax regimes. Our net income projections by decile can be used in both emissions- and impact-related research to understand distributional effects at various income levels and identify economically vulnerable populations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extended convex hull-based distributed optimal energy flow of integrated electricity-gas systems

Integrated electricity and gas systems are constructed to facilitate the gas-fired generation, and the distributed operation of these integrated systems have received much attention due to the increased emphasis on data security and privacy between different agencies. This paper proposes an extended convex hull based method to address optimal energy flow problems for the integrated electricity and gas systems in a distributed manner. First, a multi-block electricity-gas system model is constructed by dividing the whole system into N blocks considering both physical and regional differences. This multi-block model is then convexified by replacing the nonconvex gas transmission equation with the extended convex hull-based constraints. The Jacobi-Proximal alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm is adopted to solve the convexified model and minimize its operation cost. Finally, the feasibility of the optimal solution for the convexified model is checked, and a sufficient condition is developed. If the sufficient condition is satisfied, the optimal solution for the original nonconvex problem can be recovered from that for the convexified problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is tractable and effective in obtaining feasible optimal solutions for multi-block optimal energy flow problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the impact of tidal generation and energy storage integration in PV-rich electric distribution systems

Deep decarbonization of power system operations requires the maximal utilization of available renewable resources. At distribution-level operations, however, grid operators can face numerous challenges in integrating renewables at scale owing to the inherent intermittence of renewable energy resources. These include phenomena such as voltage fluctuations, which are typically mitigated through control actuators such as on-load tap changers (OLTC) as well as energy storage devices, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS). On the one hand, high intermittence of the available renewable portfolio may require increasingly aggressive control of actuators, thereby accelerating the probability of equipment failure. On the other hand, integrating BESS operations and having a diverse renewable generation portfolio can typically help stagger power/energy flow to mitigate the aforementioned adverse impacts. In this paper, we employ a Bayesian framework for equipment lifetime estimation to understand the impact of including tidal energy resources and BESS in distribution system operations for feeders having substantial distribution photovoltaic generation. Our results indicate that while tidal energy alone may slightly decrease equipment reliability, the adverse impact on reliability is significantly magnified by a generation portfolio consisting of tidal generation and photovoltaic generation. Here, we also study the tidal and photovoltaic hosting capacity problem with and without energy storage systems using equipment reliability as an added constraint. We conclude that energy storage increases the reliability-constrained hosting capacity of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

North Carolina Water Utility Builds Resilience with Distributed Energy Resources

As the frequency and duration of grid outages increase, backup power systems are becoming more important for ensuring that critical infrastructure continues to provide essential services. Most facilities rely on diesel generators, which may be ineffective during long outages owing to limited fuel supplies and high generator failure rates. Distributed energy resources such as solar, storage, and combined-heat-and-power systems, coupled with on-site biofuel production, offer an alternative source of on-site generation that can provide both cost savings and resilience (i.e., the ability to respond to catastrophic events with longer-term consequences). A mixed-integer linear program minimizes costs and maximizes resilience at a wastewater treatment plant in Wilmington, North Carolina. We find that the plant can reduce life-cycle energy costs by 3.1% through the installation of a hybrid combined-heat-and-power, photovoltaic, and storage system. When paired with existing diesel generators, this system can sustain full load for seven days while saving $664,000 over 25 years and reducing diesel fuel use by 48% compared with the diesel-only solution. This analysis informed a decision by the Cape Fear Public Utility Authority to allocate funds for the implementation of a combined-heat-and-power system at the wastewater treatment plant in fiscal year 2023. Finally, the benefits of deploying hybrid combined-heat-and-power technologies and the utilization of on-site biofuel production extend, on a national scale, to thousands of wastewater treatment facilities and other types of critical infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Loss Factors for Small Distributed Wind Turbines Based on Field Data in the United States

While wind energy production loss due to unavailability, environmental impacts, curtailment, and other causes has been studied and characterized at the utility-scale wind farm level, observation-based characterization of project loss is lacking for distributed wind energy, particularly for projects involving small wind turbines. Contemporary tools and research that support pre-construction distributed wind energy characterization present a wide range of default loss factors to convert gross energy estimates to net: 7-18%. We hypothesize that we can use generation observations from operational distributed wind projects to develop more accurate representations of loss. Using a density-based filtering technique on distributed wind power generation timeseries, we determine periods of typical performance and use them with regression algorithms in a measure-correlate-predict fashion to simulate what the generation would have been during periods of atypical or unreported performance. From there, the actual versus predicted generation leads to the establishment of observation-informed loss factors (median = 17%) for small, single turbine installation distributed wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Overview of Inverter-based Resource Interconnection Standards

For the past century, electric power systems have primarily been bulk power systems consisting of generation, transmission, and distribution networks. Now the rapid expansion of distributed renewable power sources (RESs) and the shift from large, conventional synchronous machine resources to smaller-sized resources with diverse generation characteristics become the most significant change in modern power systems. With the increasing penetration of RESs, which are inverter-based resources (IBRs), it is important to develop interconnection standards that define performance and capability criteria for these IBRs. This is necessary to ensure the stable and reliable operation of power systems. This report summarizes the standards for IBRs interconnection in North America.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mesoscale simulation of granular materials under weak shock compaction–pore size distribution effects

This research established a systematic method to generate various pore-size distributions (PSDs) and studied the effect of PSDs on the shock compaction response of granular materials using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations under identical porosity. Simulations utilized various PSDs for three particle shapes (circle, ellipse, and square). Contacting particle configurations using three PSDs, characterized by spatially uniform distributed pores to heterogeneous distributed pores, and non-contacting particle configurations under a single case of PSD were tested. The PSD of generated particle sets was characterized using coordination number, mean diameter, and bimodality coefficient as statistical metrics. Mesoscale simulations showed that regardless of the conditions of pore distributions, shock compaction of granular materials consistently demonstrates a precursor, shock compaction front, and end. However, the shock compaction velocity of contacting particles was dependent on the PSDs despite the constant initial porosity. The compaction velocity was faster in particle configurations with relatively uniform pore distributions than in heterogeneous pore distributions, which our study demonstrated can be attributed to particle rearrangement during compaction. Circular-shaped particles had high sensitivity in shock compaction response to the various PSDs. Furthermore, a contacting particle configuration tended to propagate the shock compaction wave relatively faster than particles that were in a non-contact configuration. This study established the relative importance of considering PSD as a metric over the coordination number in studies of the shock compaction response of granular materials. Further, insights are provided on the evolving shock substructure to characterize the shock compaction response of granular materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Energy Resources as an Equity Asset: Lessons Learned from Deployments in Disadvantaged Communities

For an Energy System to be truly equitable, it should provide affordable and reliable energy services to disadvantaged and underserved populations. Disadvantaged communities often face a combination of economic, social, health, and environmental burdens and may be geographically isolated (e.g., rural communities), which systematically limits their opportunity to fully participate in aspects of economic, social, and civic life.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recommended Functionalities for Improving Cybersecurity of Distributed Energy Resources

The current electric grid is transitioning through increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), which include intermittent renewable generation resources on the distribution side. Both the monitoring and control of DERs require extensive data-exchange and communication networks. These networks lead to cyber vulnerabilities and risks of new kinds of cyberattacks that may be extremely destructive for power system operations. Although current standards, such as IEEE Std. 1547-2018, do not discuss cybersecurity measures for DERs, cybersecurity controls should be developed for securing DER systems at the device level, communications level, and applications level. This paper discusses the current industry's best practices related to DER cybersecurity and proposes recommended functionalities for improving the cybersecurity posture of DERs, specifically at the device/distribution level. These practical recommendations have been discussed and verified with the industry through a DER cybersecurity working group.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Network-Cognizant Time-Coupled Aggregate Flexibility of Distribution Systems Under Uncertainties

Increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) within distribution feeders provides unprecedented flexibility at the distribution-transmission interconnection. To exploit this flexibility and to use the capacity potential of aggregate DERs, feasible substation power injection trajectories need to be efficiently characterized. This paper provides an ellipsoidal inner approximation of the set of feasible power injection trajectories at the substation such that for any point in the set, there exists a feasible disaggregation strategy of DERs for any load uncertainty realization. The problem is formulated as one of finding the robust maximum volume ellipsoid inside the flexibility region under uncertainty. Though the problem is NP-hard even in the deterministic case, this paper derives novel approximations of the resulting adaptive robust optimization problem based on optimal second-stage policies. The proposed approach yields less conservative flexibility characterization than existing flexibility region approximation formulations. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder.

aggregates↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Privacy-Preserving Strategy for the Trust Layer of the Energy Grid of Things Distributed Energy Resource Management System

Emergent from the shadows of the traditional grid flaws, the Smart Grid (SG) idea was born and led by government mandates toward cleaner energy production. The SG represents the next generation of electricity distribution systems that subsume recent technological innovations. It uses digital communication between its components and entities to attain more automation, self-sufficiency, and reliability. Unfortunately, this relatively new concept is not flawless; the intrinsic reliance on increased digital communication spreads open attack paths for adversaries. Therefore, finding solutions that address information exchange vulnerabilities has become imperative. The Energy Grid of Things (EGoT) is Portland State University’s (PSU’s) implementation of a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS). The EGoT DERMS requires access to customers’ information to achieve operational objectives. The system’s access to customers’ information needs to be restricted such that it does not violate customers’ privacy. Applying privacy protection models such as K-anonymity to EGoT DERMS sub-components safeguards that privacy. This thesis work proposes a strategy to ensure communication in the EGoT DERMS is privacy-preserving and secure. Specifically, it provides an approach to applying the Mondrian Algorithm to ensure data within the system excludes Personally Identifiable Information (PII) and provides means for securing the communication according to industry standards (IEEE 2030.5). Results suggest that the generalization hierarchy derived for the EGoT DERMS exhibits an Identical Generalization Hierarchy structure. Guarantees of sameness manifested in the test feeder topology would not hold in real-world scenarios. This thesis work proposes a strategy to ensure communication in the EGoT DERMS is privacy-preserving and secure. Specifically, it provides an approach to applying the Mondrian Algorithm to ensure data within the system excludes Personally Identifiable Information (PII) and provides means for securing the communication according to industry standards (IEEE 2030.5). Results suggest that the generalization hierarchy derived for the EGoT DERMS exhibits an Identical Generalization Hierarchy structure. Guarantees of sameness manifested in the test feeder topology would not hold in real-world scenarios.

Alsiad, Mohammed↗

DOE OSTI2021

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

California Time-of-Use (TOU) Transition: Effects on Distributed Wind and Solar Economic Potential

Time-of-use (TOU) retail energy rates price electricity differently by the time of day, communicating to consumers the costs of supplying electricity diurnally. This study evaluates the impact of Decision D.15.07-001, which mandates a transition in 2020 to default TOU rates for residential ratepayers in California, on the economic viability of behind-the-meter distributed wind and solar systems. Previous studies have demonstrated that increasing wind and solar generation will materially affect the diurnal cost of wholesale electricity. As retail and wholesale prices become more aligned, this could affect the inter-technology economic viability of distributed generation. We assess economic viability through 'economic potential,' or the amount of generation capacity that exceeds a rate of return of 5.4%. In addition, we identify sensitivities of economic potential to capital costs and other techno-economic factors as well as the specific counties and sectors with substantial economic potential. We find that TOU implementation is projected to moderately increase economic potential of distributed wind and marginally decrease that of distributed solar. Over the long-term as variable renewable energy penetration increases in California, particularly utility-scale solar, net peak load and thus peak prices will shift later in the evening. To the extent that retail rates continue to evolve with wholesale prices, we find the changes could positively affect the value of wind generation more than that of solar generation. Over the scenarios considered, model results indicate realistic pathways to reaching a robust distributed wind market in California though solar economic potential was found to be substantially larger than that of wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Near-field acoustical holography and acoustic power analysis of a simulated, highly heated supersonic jet

Although near-field acoustical holography (NAH) and acoustic intensity analysis have previously been used to investigate the apparent jet noise sources produced by military aircraft, explicit connections to supersonic jet characteristics cannot be made due to a lack of information about the exhaust plume. Here, to begin to bridge this gap and better understand the source information yielded by NAH, the current study instead applies NAH to a virtual measurement of the near-field pressures of a highly heated laboratory-scale supersonic jet generated by large-eddy simulation (LES). The holographic reconstructions of the pressure, particle velocity, and acoustic intensity are found to match the LES-generated acoustic field well and are used to calculate the acoustic power of the jet. The jet's calculated overall acoustic power is compared to the free-stream mechanical power, resulting in an acoustic efficiency of 1.5%. Ray-tracing of the acoustic intensity to the jet centerline generates an axial distribution of the acoustic power origin, showing that almost all the power originates from the supersonic portion of the flow and with the distribution peak upstream of the potential core tip. Holographic reconstruction of the pressures along the nozzle lipline captures the general spectral shape of the LES-generated pressures, though it underestimates the amplitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twin + AI: Control Room of the Future [Slides]

The control room functions as the central brain of the grid, essential for balancing supply and demand and ensuring moment-to-moment grid reliability. Like the human brain, which processes sensory data to make decisions, control room operators analyze operational data from power generation, transmission, and distribution to make informed decisions. Currently, decision-making primarily rests with operators due to hardware and software limitations. However, with technological advancements, Digital Twins and AI are becoming high interest points in the control room's decision-making pilot programs. NREL is developing a comprehensive decision-making platform that integrates Digital Twins, AI, and advanced visualization techniques. As this integration progresses, the role of Digital Twins will evolve from conducting automated simulations to serving as a Trustworthy AI enabler, offering verification and validation of AI-generated response for power systems or providing physics-aware synthetic data of AI pre-training.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

U.S. Department of Energy Solar District Cup Collegiate Design Competition

The Solar District Cup is a multidisciplinary collegiate competition that challenges student teams to design and model standalone solar and solar-plus-storage systems for multiple buildings on a local electrical distribution network, such as a college campus, across a development, or in a district. Students learn cross-cutting skills that prepare them to become part of the next generation of the distributed energy workforce. Student teams act as renewable energy developers proposing to solar and solar-plus-storage system requests. Students, faculty, and prospective employers can benefit from knowing about this program and what students learn--either immediately as participants, mentors, or judges, or as potential employers of Solar District Cup alumni. RE+ is also one of our competition partners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗