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At least 505 records · Page 28

A method for diagnosing time dependent faults using model-based reasoning systems

This paper explores techniques to apply model-based reasoning to equipment and systems which exhibit dynamic behavior (that which changes as a function of time). The model-based system of interest is KATE-C (Knowledge based Autonomous Test Engineer) which is a C++ based system designed to perform monitoring and diagnosis of Space Shuttle electro-mechanical systems. Methods of model-based monitoring and diagnosis are well known and have been thoroughly explored by others. A short example is given which illustrates the principle of model-based reasoning and reveals some limitations of static, non-time-dependent simulation. This example is then extended to demonstrate representation of time-dependent behavior and testing of fault hypotheses in that environment.

Goodrich, Charles H.↗

Foundations for statistical-physical precipitation retrieval from passive microwave satellite measurements. II - Emission-source and generalized weighting-function properties of a time-dependent cloud-radiation model

The foremost physical aspects of microphysical-radiative interactions that control the formation and modulation of frequency-dependent passive microwave TB over a continental cold-rain precipitation system are explained within the framework of the essential ingredients of a physically based precipitation-retrieval algorithm. The analysis is based on a modeling study in which a 3D cloud model has provided the objective basis for generating an extensive set of microphysical profiles that describe numerous precipitation features in the course of the evolution of a continental hail storm. A summary of the various components of the algorithm, as well as the surface rain rates, is given. The algorithm employs the cloud model to provide a consistent and objectively generated source of detailed microphysical information as the underpinnings to an inversion-based perturbative retrieval scheme.

Mugnai, Alberto↗

Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge: Ground Magnetic Field Perturbations

Acquiring quantitative metrics!based knowledge about the performance of various space physics modeling approaches is central for the space weather community. Quantification of the performance helps the users of the modeling products to better understand the capabilities of the models and to choose the approach that best suits their specific needs. Further, metrics!based analyses are important for addressing the differences between various modeling approaches and for measuring and guiding the progress in the field. In this paper, the metrics!based results of the ground magnetic field perturbation part of the Geospace Environment Modeling 2008 2009 Challenge are reported. Predictions made by 14 different models, including an ensemble model, are compared to geomagnetic observatory recordings from 12 different northern hemispheric locations. Five different metrics are used to quantify the model performances for four storm events. It is shown that the ranking of the models is strongly dependent on the type of metric used to evaluate the model performance. None of the models rank near or at the top systematically for all used metrics. Consequently, one cannot pick the absolute winner : the choice for the best model depends on the characteristics of the signal one is interested in. Model performances vary also from event to event. This is particularly clear for root!mean!square difference and utility metric!based analyses. Further, analyses indicate that for some of the models, increasing the global magnetohydrodynamic model spatial resolution and the inclusion of the ring current dynamics improve the models capability to generate more realistic ground magnetic field fluctuations.

Pulkkinen, A.↗

Narrow band noise as a model of time-dependent accelerations - Study of the stability of a fluid surface in a microgravity environment

We introduce a stochastic model to analyze in quantitative detail the effect of the high frequency components of the residual accelerations onboard spacecraft (often called g-jitter) on fluid motion. The residual acceleration field is modeled as a narrow band noise characterized by three independent parameters: its intensity G squared, a dominant frequency Omega, and a characteristic spectral width tau exp -1. The white noise limit corresponds to Omega tau goes to O, with G squared tau finite, and the limit of a periodic g-jitter (or deterministic limit) can be recovered for Omega tau goes to infinity, G squared finite. The analysis of the response of a fluid surface subjected to a fluctuating gravitational field leads to the stochastic Mathieu equation driven by both additive and multiplicative noise. We discuss the stability of the solutions of this equation in the two limits of white noise and deterministic forcing, and in the general case of narrow band noise. The results are then applied to typical microgravity conditions.

Casademunt, Jaume↗

The FU Orionis outburst as a thermal accretion event: Observational constraints for protostellar disk models

The results of the time-dependent disk models developed in Bell & Lin are compared with observed properties of FU Orionis variables. Specific models are fit to the light curves of Fu Ori, V1515 Cyg, and V1057 Cyg. The slow risetime of V1515 Cyg can be matched by a self-regulated outburst model. The rapid risetimes of FU Ori and V1057 Cyg can be fitted with the application of modest perturbations to the disk surface density. Model disks display spectral features characteristic of observed objects. The color evolution of V1057 Cyg is naturally explained if mass flux drops in the inner disk (r less than 1/4 AU) while remaining steady in the outer disk. The decrease in optical line width (rotational velocity) observed during the decay of V1057 Cyg may be accounted for by an outward-propagating ionization front. We predict that before final decay to the quiescent phase, short-wavelength line widths (lambda less than 1.5 microns) will again increase. It is suggested that FU Orionis outbursts primarily occur to systems during the embedded phase with ages less than several times 10(exp 5) yr.

Bell, K. R.↗

Modeling of Time-Dependent Strength Degradation of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites via MAC/GMC Computer Code

Silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide (SiC/SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) display time-dependent strength degradation at intermediate temperatures (600 to 900 degrees Centigrade). This is generally believed to be an oxidation induced phenomenon. The understanding of the effect of temperature with environment (oxidation) is key towards development of SiC/SiC CMCs with a reliable load carrying capacity. Various theories have been proposed to explain the strength degradation. One suggests that the boron nitride (BN) coating deposited on the fibers oxidizes causing fusion of fibers. Another theory proposes that the SiC fibers are oxidized forming a silica scale leading to premature fiber failure. A more recent theory suggests that SiC fiber strength is intrinsically time-dependent due to slow crack growth of flaws in the fibers. An empirical model, termed as a "fiber classic model," which is based on a standard slow crack growth type power-law, has been implemented within NASA's micromechanics-based MAC/GMC computer code as a user routine. Model parameters for this "classic model" were calibrated from stress-rupture data of Hi-Nicalon (TM) monofilaments using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique. This new capability in the MAC/GMC computer code was then used to predict the stress-rupture behavior of Hi-Nicalon (TM) tows as well as 2-D SiC/SiC composites reinforced with Hi-Nicalon (TM) fibers. Results demonstrate that the MAC/GMC with this new capability successfully predicts the time-to-failure vs. applied stress within the intermediate temperature range at various scales as well as laminated composites in an oxidizing environment.

Environmental degradation↗

A surface chemistry model for the altitude dependence of the N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield glow on spacecraft

Low-orbiting spacecraft have been observed to cause UV emission in the N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield bands. The chemical processes expected to underlie this emission are examined. Recombination between incident and adsorbed N atoms has been proposed as the source of radiating excited N2. However, the cubic dependence of the intensity, as N2 concentration cubed or N2 concentration squared x O concentration, has not been explained. It is suggested that this can be explained by a model where adsorption of nitrogen on the spacecraft surface is balanced mainly by the removal of N from the surface by atomic oxygen. On the basis of these assumptions a mathematical model for the production of excited N2 is constructed. It is shown that for large enough reaction efficiencies the model predicts a magnitude and altitude dependence for the emission which can explain the measurements reported by other investigators.

Cuthbertson, J. W.↗

The kinetic chemistry of dense interstellar clouds

A model of the time-dependent chemistry of dense interstellar clouds is formulated to study the dominant chemical processes in carbon and oxygen isotope fractionation, the formation of nitrogen-containing molecules, and the evolution of product molecules as a function of cloud density and temperature. The abundances of the dominant isotopes of the carbon- and oxygen-bearing molecules are calculated. The chemical abundances are found to be quite sensitive to electron concentration since the electron concentration determines the ratio of H3(+) to He(+), and the electron density is strongly influenced by the metals abundance. For typical metal abundances and for H2 cloud density not less than 10,000 molecules/cu cm, nearly all carbon exists as CO at late cloud ages. At high cloud density, many aspects of the chemistry are strongly time dependent. Finally, model calculations agree well with abundances deduced from observations of molecular line emission in cold dense clouds.

Graedel, T. E.↗

Viscoelastic behavior and lifetime (durability) predictions

A method for lifetime or durability predictions for laminated fiber reinforced plastics is given. The procedure is similar to but not the same as the well known time-temperature-superposition principle for polymers. The method is better described as an analytical adaptation of time-stress-super-position methods. The analytical constitutive modeling is based upon a nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model developed by Schapery. Time dependent failure models are discussed and are related to the constitutive models. Finally, results of an incremental lamination analysis using the constitutive and failure model are compared to experimental results. Favorable results between theory and predictions are presented using data from creep tests of about two months duration.

Brinson, R. F.↗

A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

Horvitz, Eric↗

Global Soil Moisture Estimation from L-Band Satellite Data: The Impact of Radiative Transfer Modeling in Assimilation and Retrieval Systems

The SMOS and SMAP missions have collected a wealth of global L-band Brightness temperature (Tb) observations. The retrieval of surface Soil moisture estimates, and the estimation of other geophysical Variables, such as root-zone soil moisture and temperature, via data Assimilation into land surface models largely depends on accurate Radiative transfer modeling (RTM). This presentation will focus on various configuration aspects of the RTM (i) for the inversion of SMOS Tb to surface soil moisture, and (ii) for the forward modeling as part of a SMOS Tb data assimilation System to estimate a consistent set of geophysical land surface Variables, using the GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model.

De Lannoy, Gabrielle↗

A time-dependent gyro-kinetic model of thermal ion upflows in the high-latitude F region

Ample evidence supports the significance of the high-latitude ionospheric contribution to magnetospheric plasma. Assuming flux conservation along a flux tube, the upward field-aligned ion flows observed in the magnetosphere require high-latitude ionospheric field-aligned ion upflows of the order of 10(exp 8) to 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s. Since radar and satellite observations of high-latitude F region flows at times exceed this flux requirement by an order of magnitude, the thermal ionospheric upflows are not simply the ionospheric response to a magnetospheric flux requirement. Several ionospheric ion upflow mechanisms have been proposed, but simulations based on fluid theory do not reproduce all the observed features of ionospheric ion upflows. Certain asymmetries in the statistical morphology of high-latitude F region ion upflows suggest that the ion upflows may be generated by ion-neutral frictional heating. We developed a single-component (O(+)), time-dependent gyro-kinetic model of the high-latitude F region response to frictional heating in which the neutral exobase is a discontinuous boundary between fully collisional and collisionless plasmas. The concept of a discontinuous neutreal exobase and the assumption of a constant and uniform polarization electric field reduce the ion velocity distribution function, from which we can compute the ion density, parallel velocity, parallel and perpendicular temperature, and parallel flux. Using our model, we simulated the response of a convecting flux tube between 500 km and 2500 km to various frictional heating inputs; the results were both qualitatively and quantitatively different from fluid model results, which may indicate an inadequacy of the fluid theory approach. The gyro-kinetic frictional heating model responses to the various simulations were qualitatively similar: (1) initial perturbations of all the modeled parameters propagated rapidly up the flux tube, (2) transient values of the ion parallel velocity, temperature, and flux exceeded 3 km/s, 2 x 10(exp 4) K, and 10(exp 9)/sq cm/s, respectively, (3) a second transient regime developed wherein the parallel temperature drops to very low values (a few hundred Kelvins), and (4) well after heating ceased, large parallel temperatures and large downward parallel velocities and fluxes developed as the flux tube slowly returned to diffusive equilibrium. The ion velocity distributions during the simulation are often non-Maxwellian and are sometimes composed of two distinct ion populations.

Loranc, M.↗

A magnetospheric magnetic field model with flexible current systems driven by independent physical parameters

A tilt-dependent magnetic field model of the Earth's magnetosphere with variable magnetopause standoff distance is presented. Flexible analytic representations for the ring and cross-tail currents, each composed of the elements derived from the Tsyganenko and Usmanov (1982) model, are combined with the fully shielded vacuum dipole configurations of Voigt (1981). Although the current sheet does not warp in the y-z plane, changes in the shape and position of the neutral sheet with dipole tilt are consistent with both MHD equilibrium theory and observations. In addition, there is good agreement with observed Delta B profiles and the average equatorial contours of magnetic field magnitude. While the dipole field is rigorously shielded within the defined magnetopause, the ring and cross-tails currents are not similarly confined, consequently, the model's region of validity is limited to the inner magnetosphere. The model depends on four independent external parameters. We present a simple but limited method of simulating several substorm related magnetic field changes associated with the disrupion of the near-Earth cross-tail current sheet and collapse of the midnight magnetotail field region. This feature further facilitates the generation of magnetic field configuration time sequences useful in plasma convection simulations of real magnetospheric events.

Hilmer, Robert V.↗

Age Dependent 3-D Magnetic Modeling of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceanic Crust at Intermediate Wavelengths

Three-dimensional magnetic modeling of the North Atlantic and Northeast pacific is performed at intermediate wavelengths using three models for the acquisition of a natural remanent magnetization. It is shown that a remanent magnetization which is dependent on the rustal age is the dominant source for the intermediate wavelength pattern in both basins.

magnetic modeling tectonics plate tectonics oceani↗

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan - Linear theory and numerical simulations

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan are studied by a linear steady-state analytic model and a nonlinear time-dependent numerical model with parameterized subgrid-scale physics. The solutions of the linear model show that the orientation of the mean wind field to the surface heating pattern is crucial to the shapes of the disturbances. The results indicate that the relative warmth of the lake surface can induce three updraft centers under a westerly wind, two updraft centers/bands under a northwesterly wind, and a convergence band under a northerly wind. Such convergences are caused by the interaction between the mean wind and the local circulations forced by the curved thermal contrasts. The numerical results from the nonlinear model not only produce convergence patterns very similar to those found in the linear theory and in other numerical studies, but also capture the transient property in some of the lake-induced disturbances. All of these results are qualitatively confirmed by satellite images.

Hsu, Hsiao-Ming↗

Probing the High-energy Gamma-Ray Emission Mechanism in the Vela Pulsar via Phase-resolved Spectral and Energy-dependent Light-curve Modeling

Recent kinetic simulations sparked a debate regarding the emission mechanism responsible for pulsed GeV γ-ray emission from pulsars. Some models invoke curvature radiation, while other models assume synchrotron radiation in the current sheet. We interpret the curved spectrum of the Vela pulsar as seen by H.E.S.S. II (up to ∼100 GeV) and the Fermi Large Area Telescope to be the result of curvature radiation due to primary particles in the pulsar magnetosphere and current sheet. We present phase-resolved spectra and energy-dependent light curves using an extended slot gap and current-sheet model, invoking a step function for the accelerating electric field as motivated by kinetic simulations. We include a refined calculation of the curvature radius of particle trajectories in the lab frame, impacting the particle transport, predicted light curves, and spectra. Our model reproduces the decrease of the flux of the first peak relative to the second one, evolution of the bridge emission, near-constant phase positions of peaks, and narrowing of pulses with increasing energy. We can explain the first of these trends because we find that the curvature radii of the particle trajectories in regions where the second γ-ray light-curve peak originates are systematically larger than those associated with the first peak, implying that the spectral cutoff of the second peak is correspondingly larger. However, an unknown azimuthal dependence of the E field, as well as uncertainty in the precise spatial origin of the GeV emission, precludes a simplistic discrimination of emission mechanisms.

Monica Barnard↗

Implementation of Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Micromechanics Analysis of Polymer Matrix Composites

A procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear response of composite plates under large strain and high strain rate loading. A recently developed strain dependent micromechanics model is extended to account for the shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of shear deformation effects are investigated to improve the development strain rate dependent micromechanics model. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio is developed. The revised micromechanics model is implemented into higher order laminate theory. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate transverse shear effects during impact.

Kim, Heung Soo↗

Optimized Shielding for Space Radiation Protection

Abstract. Future deep space mission and International Space Station exposures will be dominated by the high-charge and -energy (HZE) ions of the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). A few mammalian systems have been extensively tested over a broad range of ion types and energies. For example, C3H10T1/2 cells, V79 cells, and Harderian gland tumors have been described by various track-structure dependent response models. The attenuation of GCR induced biological effects depends strongly on the biological endpoint, response model used, and material composition. Optimization of space shielding is then driven by the nature of the response model and the transmission characteristics of the given material.

Wilson, J. W.↗