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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28

Insights from NREL’s Electrification Futures and LA100 Studies

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Climate-Water-Electricity Interactions in the U.S. Under Alternative Decarbonized Futures

The U.S. electric sector is rapidly evolving, with widespread renewable energy deployment, building and transport electrification, and nuanced decarbonization policies. Climate change influences the supply and demand for electricity by altering water resources for cooling and hydropower, thermal plant efficiencies, and heating and cooling demand. This research combines global climate model data, asset-level water and streamflow modeling, and electric sector capacity expansion modeling to study climate-water-electricity interactions across myriad future climate and electricity scenarios that consider electrification and decarbonization using renewable, hydrogen, carbon capture, and nuclear technologies. Multi-model integration leads to insights into power-water sector interactions and their impacts on grid economics and environmental outcomes.

climate change↗

Space Cooling: Recovery, Reuse, Recycling and Supply Chain Impacts

The global cooling sector has undergone tremendous growth in recent years, and cooling demand is projected to double or triple by 2050. Surging air conditioning demand will continue to be driven by increased populations, incomes and occurrences of extreme heat and humidity events. Cooling equipment growth has important pollution and material implications as they are made up of critical metals and precious raw materials - including ferrous metals, copper, aluminum and printed circuit boards composed of copper, silver, gold and palladium - that generate significant electronic waste at end-of-life. Air conditioning equipment also contains fluorinated gas (F-gas) refrigerants, which are potent gases that are thousands of times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide (CO2). While recovery, reuse, and recycling strategies have been assessed for cold chain and refrigeration, there is currently limited analysis on how these strategies could be adopted for the global space cooling industry and potential supply chain implications. This paper aims to address this research gap by qualitatively evaluating product and material recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks from both demand and supply-side perspectives and with the support of cooling-specific case studies. It also focuses on quantitatively assessing potential energy, emissions and resource benefits of such strategies for space cooling equipment. This paper first analyzes how existing recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks can be applied to space cooling, with emphasis on the demand-side enablers (e.g., innovative business models, supporting policies and regulations) and changes in supply-side production network throughout the supply chain (e.g., design, production and distribution, end-of-life recovery) needed to overcome existing barriers. It will present case studies of innovative business models for space cooling technologies, including reuse and recycling, and how effective refrigerant reclamation and recovery programs have been operationalized. Lastly, the paper will highlight global modeling results of energy, emissions and material recovery from scenario analysis of selected strategies for air conditioners. The findings of this paper are intended to inform the development of product and material recovery, reuse and recycling strategies for a rapidly growing stock of space conditioning equipment by addressing existing organizational, economic and regulatory barriers and potential supply-chain bottlenecks.

Khanna, Nina↗

Compressing Vision Transformers in Geospatial Transfer Learning with Manifold-Constrained Optimization

Deploying geospatial foundation models on resource-constrained edge devices demands compact architectures that maintain high downstream performance. However, their large parameter counts and the accuracy loss often induced by compression limit practical adoption.In this work, we leverage manifold-constrained optimization framework DLRT to compress large vision transformer–based geospatial foundation models during transfer learning. By enforcing structured low-dimensional parameterizations aligned with downstream objectives, this approach achieves strong compression while preserving task-specific accuracy. We show that the method outperforms of-the-shelf low-rank methods as LoRA. Experiments on diverse geospatial benchmarks confirm substantial parameter reduction with minimal accuracy loss, enabling high-performing, on-device geospatial models.

Snyder, Thomas [Yale University]↗

LeWRON: Agentic Analysis of Electroweak Phase Transitions

The electroweak phase transition (EWPT) is a central topic in particle physics and cosmology, connecting collider phenomenology, baryogenesis, and gravitational-wave observatories. Its analysis requires a technically demanding, convention-sensitive, and model-dependent pipeline, from constructing the finite-temperature effective potential to tracking thermal histories, computing bubble nucleation rates, and predicting gravitational-wave spectra. We present LeWRON (Learning ElectroWeak phase tRansitiON), an agentic framework that orchestrates this pipeline starting from an input Lagrangian. LeWRON combines audited toolbox construction with an Explorer module that uses the generated model-specific code for further analysis, including scans and plots. Intermediate analytic outputs are checked by auditor agents and stored as structured artifacts, enabling reproducible human inspection and downstream use through both a command-line interface and a public Python API. The framework supports a reproduction mode, which infers conventions from the literature and reproduces published results, and a discovery mode, which guides users through structured checkpoints for new models. We demonstrate LeWRON across representative beyond-the-Standard-Model scenarios and release the code on GitHub.

Wang, Isaac R. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000030789218X)↗

Evaluating the Impact of Managed EV Charging for Reliable Operation of Bulk Power Systems with High Non-Dispatchable Generation

The growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and variable-generation (VG) sources introduces new challenges for power-system operations. This study introduces a modeling framework and evaluates five EV charging strategies under projected 2040 grid conditions in the Evergy service territory with high non-dispatchable generation. Using realistic EV behavior and generation models, their impacts on system peak demand, ramp rate, and reserve capacity are evaluated. Results show that only the peak-avoidance strategy effectively reduces system peak demand, while decentralized strategies-particularly cost based dynamic charging-can exacerbate peaks due to synchronized user behavior. However, ramp-rate minimization strategy significantly reduce the stress on dispatchable generation achieving the lowest maximum absolute ramp rate (MARR) (56.81 MW) and lowest reserve requirement (2.39 GW). In contrast, unmanaged and TOU random strategies increase the stress on dispatchable generation sources with increased MARR and reserve requirements. These findings highlight the importance of coordinated, system-aware managed charging strategies to ensure reliable and affordable grid operation in the presence of EVs and VG sources.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-bandwidth density silicon photonic resonators for energy-efficient optical interconnects

The growth of artificial intelligence applications demands ever larger and more complex deep learning models, dominating today's—and tomorrow's—data center and high-performance computing systems. While traditional electronics are failing to keep pace with application demands, silicon photonic (SiPh) interconnects have emerged as a necessary technology to support these systems. SiPh-driven wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) offers a particularly promising path toward supporting incredibly high-aggregate link bandwidth in a compact and efficient form factor. One of the basic building blocks of these integrated WDM interconnects is the SiPh resonator. Their inherent wavelength selectivity and compact footprint allow for efficient data transmission multiplexed across dozens of carrier wavelengths. Used as add-drop (AD) filters, SiPh resonators are critical to constructing integrated tunable wavelength-selective optical circuit switches as well as for demultiplexing the different carrier wavelengths toward independent wavelength-insensitive photodiodes in a dense wavelength-division multiplexing receiver. Resonators in the all-pass (AP) configuration are widespread as well, allowing for wavelength-selective modulation to drive aggregate link bandwidths far beyond the individual channel data rate. Unlike SiPh Mach–Zehnder modulators (MZM), resonant modulators can be driven using low, complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor drive voltages, allowing for tight co-integration between photonic integrated circuits, fabricated with larger process node technologies, and electronic integrated circuits, designed to exploit the advantages of the latest node. To push toward practical peta-scale interconnects, a comprehensive review of SiPh resonators is required, addressing bottlenecks and design constraints at both the architecture and device levels. We first describe the predominant integrated link architectures and identify their limits. We then discuss the device-level design considerations that can be made for both AD and AP configuration resonators to overcome the system level limits with novel resonator device designs. Analytical models and numerical simulation of resonators are validated by experimental measurement of devices fabricated in a commercial 300-mm foundry, showing a clear path toward volume manufacturing. The demonstrated resonant modulators and filters support the feasibility of increasing the aggregate bandwidth of resonator-driven SiPh interconnects into the peta-scale regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Scalable and Distributed Algorithm for Managing Residential Demand Response Programs using Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM)

For effective engagement of residential demand-side resources and to ensure efficient operation of distribution networks, we must overcome the challenges of controlling and coordinating residential components and devices at scale. To overcome this challenge, we present a distributed and scalable algorithm with a three-level hierarchical information exchange architecture for managing the residential demand response programs. First, a centralized optimization model is formulated to maximize community social welfare. Then, this centralized model is solved in a distributed manner with alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) by decomposing the original problem to utility-level and house-level problems. The information exchange between the different layers is limited to the primary residual (i.e., supply-demand mismatch), Lagrangian multipliers, and the total load of each house to protect each customer’s privacy. Simulation studies are performed on the IEEE 33 bus test system with 605 residential customers. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can save customers’ electricity bills and reduce the peak load at the utility level without much affecting customers’ comfort and privacy. Finally, a quantitative comparison of the distributed and centralized algorithms shows the scalability advantage of the proposed ADMM-based approach, and it gives benchmarking results with achievable value for future research works.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Argonne’s global critical materials agent-based model (GCMat)

Several studies have identified rare earths as critical materials. Although reasonably abundant in the Earth’s crust, rare earths typically occur in low concentrations of mined ores. Processes for recovering rare earth concentrates from these ores are complex and capital intensive. Further, lead times for deposit development, licensing, and construction are long, with reports of 10- 15 years. China is a major player in the rare earths supply chain, both in production capacity and technology innovation. In 2017, China supplied more than 80% of global rare earth oxide demand. Rare earth elements (REEs) have unique magnetic, catalytic, and phosphorescent properties that significantly improve performance of a wide range of technologies. These technologies span aerospace, energy, telecommunications, electronics, transportation, defense, and other diverse applications. Consequently, disruptions in rare earth supply can have a significant societal impact. Estimating that impact requires understanding of the dynamics across the supply chain, from rare earth oxide extraction to end use application. This report documents Argonne’s Global Critical Materials model (GCMat), first described by Riddle et al. 2015. GCMat provides capabilities to explore supply chain dynamics and uncertainty under scenarios of demand growth or shrinkage, technology adoption, supply disruptions, and trade policies and mitigation strategies of new supply sources, product substitution, consumer thrifting, and stockpiling. Supply chain participants from rare earth mining through final demand are modeled as interacting agents who make market decisions independently as time progresses. Since the version documented in Riddle et al. 2015, GCMat has been expanded to cover additional REEs, derived products and supply chains that use these REEs, and includes new agent behaviors and modeling capabilities. Section 2 provides a summary of the GCMat model design, including the structure of the model and key assumptions, section 3 summarizes methods used for model calibration and sensitivity analysis, and section 4 provides examples of model results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Energy-efficient multimodal mobility networks in transportation digital twins: Strategies and optimization

The study proposes a comprehensive Transportation Mobility (TransitMo) framework covering conceptual design, model formulation, optimization, simulation, and impact analysis of the transportation mobility system. TransitMo is composed of a transportation digital twin developed in Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) and an Intelligent Traffic Management and Control Center (ITMCC) that identifies the best ways to improve the movement of people within urban areas using various modes of transportation. This study encompasses advanced modeling techniques, algorithms, and strategic testing to optimize energy efficiency and mobility in a multimodal shared mobility network. TransitMo’s practical applications are exemplified through a city-scaled simulation network in Chattanooga, TN, employing demographic data to analyze historical traffic patterns and forecast future demands. Central to this methodology are three models: the User Preference Model (UP), the Energy Consumption Model (EC), and the System Optimization Model (SO). These models work in concert to iteratively devise the optimal travel incentives and minimize the total system cost in a real-time manner. In conclusion, test results verified that the proposed adaptive incentive program and optimized bus scheduling can improve network performance by increasing public transit ridership.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Clean Energy Transition for Transportation Systems: Modeling Implications

Transportation is currently the least-diversified energy demand sector, with over 90% of energy use coming from petroleum. As a result, transportation recently became the largest source of GHG emissions in the U.S. and mobility needs for passenger and freight are growing rapidly. However, after over a century of petroleum dominance, new disruptive technologies and business models offer a pathway to decarbonize the sector. Transportation is at a turning point. On the horizon lies a future where affordable and abundant renewable electricity can be used to power cost-competitive battery electric vehicles (EVs) and produce energy-dense low-carbon fuels enabling to fully decarbonize transportation systems across all modes. Exploring the clean energy transition for the multitude of different transportation systems requires new analytical modeling and approaches. This talk reviewed current work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop and use innovative tools and analytics approaches to inform the transformation to a sustainable mobility future and the integration of transportation systems with the broader energy sector.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas–driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor–holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. Here, it indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Validation and moisture content sensitivity analysis of cross-laminated timber wall assemblies in EnergyPlus

Cross-laminated timber buildings are becoming more common in North America, with many numerical studies showing potential energy savings. However, no studies have validated any EnergyPlus heat transfer algorithms or quantified their accuracy in simulating CLT in building envelopes. This study empirically validates the heat flux predictions for each of EnergyPlus's heat transfer algorithms (Conduction Transfer Functions (CTF), Effective Moisture Penetration Depth (EMPD), Conduction Finite Difference (CondFD), and Heat and Moisture Transfer (HAMT)) for two different CLT ply thicknesses with both summer and winter boundary conditions measured in controlled lab experiments. It also evaluates the model sensitivity of heat flux and heating and cooling loads to moisture content. The 1D validation shows that the HAMT model is the most accurate among all algorithms. All EnergyPlus's heat flux predictions are accurate independent of CLT plate thickness for summer conditions. However, the three constant property algorithms (CTF, EMPD, and CondFD) underpredict heat flux throughout the whole day during winter conditions. The 1D sensitivity analysis indicates that elevated moisture content can increase peak heat fluxes through the material by up to 20 %. Finally, the whole building model sensitivity analysis shows increased heating load and slight cooling load variation due to increased moisture content when using constant property models. The analysis shows significantly lower peak thermal demand (7 % lower heating and 6 % lower cooling) and monthly thermal load (8 % less cooling and 6 % less heating) predictions when using HAMT vs a constant property model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

IM3 Data Center Driven Grid Stress Dataset for the U.S. Western Interconnection

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from an open-source grid operations modeling framework - GO), for the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project, under varying levels of data center demand growth between 2025 and 2035 in the U.S. Western Interconnection. The scenarios and sensitivity experiments are combinations of different data center demand growth rates and energy, weather, population and economic pathways. Data center demand growth projections were sourced from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The data center demand growth projection names are: Low (3.71% annual data center demand growth) Moderate (5% annual data center demand growth) High (10% annual data center demand growth) Higher (15% annual data center demand growth) Energy, weather, population and economic pathways are informed by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) following the hotter general circulation model (GCM) forcing group from a set of perturbed thermodynamics simulations. The resulting pathway names are: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The main scenarios and sensitivity experiments are detailed below. Reference scenario: The projected grid stress and reliability results for the U.S. Western Interconnection from a previous study. This scenario does not consider data center demand growth explicitly. Data center scenario: Building on the reference scenario, this scenario considers various data center growth rates and how they impact the U.S. Western Interconnection. Data center loads are modeled as flat 8760-hr profiles. This scenario does not consider new generation and transmission capacities specifically designed to meet the new data center demands. The related folder is named "flat". Delayed generator retirements sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different levels of natural gas and nuclear generator retirement delays. The resulting scenario names are: (1) postponing 100% nuclear retirements; (2) postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements; (3) postponing only 50% natural gas retirements; (4) postponing 100% nuclear and 50% natural gas retirements; (5) postponing 100% nuclear and 75% natural gas retirements; and (6) postponing 100% nuclear and 100% natural gas retirements. The related folder names are: no_gen_retire_0_gas, no_gen_retire_25_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas, no_gen_retire_50_gas_only, no_gen_retire_75_gas, and no_gen_retire_100_gas. Demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: Building on the data center scenario, this experiment explores the impact of different participation and compensation levels of data center demand response. The resulting scenario names are: (1) 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (2) 5% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; (3) 5% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation; (4) 15% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation; (5) 15% demand available for curtailment with 500 $/MWh compensation; and (6) 15% demand available for curtailment with 250 $/MWh compensation. The related folder names are: dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_250_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_5, dr_cost_500_drup_0_drdown_15, dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5, and dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_15. Combination of delayed generator retirements and demand response through curtailment sensitivity experiment: The impact of combining postponing 100% nuclear and 25% natural gas retirements with 5% demand available for curtailment with 750 $/MWh compensation is simulated. The related folder is named "dr_cost_750_drup_0_drdown_5_nuc_100_gas_25". Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Artificial Intelligence↗

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗