SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “decision theory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum logic gate synthesis as a Markov decision process

Reinforcement learning has witnessed recent applications to a variety of tasks in quantum programming. The underlying assumption is that those tasks could be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs). Here, we investigate the feasibility of this assumption by exploring its consequences for single-qubit quantum state preparation and gate compilation. By forming discrete MDPs, we solve for the optimal policy exactly through policy iteration. We find optimal paths that correspond to the shortest possible sequence of gates to prepare a state or compile a gate, up to some target accuracy. Our method works in both the absence and presence of noise and compares favorably to other quantum compilation methods, such as the Ross–Selinger algorithm. This work provides theoretical insight into why reinforcement learning may be successfully used to find optimally short gate sequences in quantum programming.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

ADAM: A web platform for graph-based modeling and optimization of supply chains

Modeling and optimization are essential tasks that arise in the analysis and design of supply chains (SCs). SC models are essential for understanding emergent behavior such as transactions between participants, inherent value of products exchanged, as well as impact of externalities (e.g., policy and climate) and of constraints. Unfortunately, most users of SC models have limited expertise in mathematical optimization, and this hinders the adoption of advanced decision-making tools. Here, in this work, we present ADAM, a web platform that enables the modeling and optimization of SCs. ADAM facilitates modeling by leveraging intuitive and compact graph-based abstractions that allow the user to express dependencies between locations, products, and participants. ADAM model objects serve as repositories of experimental, technology, and socio-economic data; moreover, the graph abstractions facilitate the organization and exchange of models and provides a natural framework for education and outreach. Here, we discuss the graph abstractions and software design principles behind ADAM, its key functional features and workflows, and application examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468

Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

New physics search at the CEPC: a general perspective

A next generation, high-intensity electron-positron collider “Higgs factory”, such as the Circular Electron-Positron Collider (CEPC), is among the highest priority for the global high energy collider physics community. The CEPC can provide unprecedented opportunities for making fundamental discoveries and providing decisive insights in the quest for a “New Standard Model (SM)” of nature’s fundamental interactions. The CEPC could: 1) Identify the origin of matter, especially the mechanism related to the first-order phase transition in the early Universe, which could produce a detectable gravitational wave signal. 2) Discover dark matter, particularly dark matter particles with a mass between one tenth and 100 times the proton mass. 3) Observe an array of new physics smoking guns, with sensitivities orders of magnitude better than those of existing facilities. The SM of Particle Physics is a triumph of the past half a century, as it predicts and interprets almost all the phenomena observed in experiments from the highest energies with colliders to low energy “tabletop” studies. On the other hand, deep mysteries exist concerning the most fundamental interactions of matter and the space-time fabric of the Universe, including the nature of dark matter, the origin of “visible” matter, the vast hierarchy of elementary particle masses, the quantum nature of gravity, and the mechanism of inflation. These mysteries challenge us to look for “new physics” beyond the SM and General Relativity. Indeed, physicists believe that the SM is simply a low-energy effective theory that reflects aspects of the more profound theory that answers the aforementioned mysteries. Uncovering this “New SM”, the profound theory who supports the SM is the primary mission for particle physics in the post-Higgs boson era.

Ai 艾, Xiaocong 小聪 [Zhengzhou University (China); e↗

DOE OSTI2023

Applications of the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition for debugging nonlinear optimization problems

Nonlinear modeling and optimization is a valuable tool for aiding decisions by engineering practitioners, but programming an optimization problem based on a complex electrical, mechanical, or chemical process is a time-consuming and error-prone activity. Therefore, there is a need for model analysis and debugging tools that can detect and diagnose modeling errors. One such tool is the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition, which identifies structurally under- and over-determined subsets in systems of equations and variables by partitioning the bipartite graph of the system. This work provides the necessary background to understand the Dulmage–Mendelsohn decomposition and its application to the analysis of nonlinear optimization problems, demonstrates its use in diagnosing a variety of modeling errors, and introduces software implementations for analyzing nonlinear optimization problems in the Pyomo and JuMP algebraic modeling languages.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Graph-Based Modeling and Decomposition of Hierarchical Optimization Problems

We present a graph-theoretic modeling approach for hierarchical optimization that leverages the OptiGraph abstraction implemented in the Julia package Plasmo.jl. We show that the abstraction is flexible and can effectively capture complex hierarchical connectivity that arises from decision-making over multiple spatial and temporal scales (e.g., integration of planning, scheduling, and operations in manufacturing and infrastructures). We also show that the graph abstraction facilitates the conceptualization and implementation of decomposition and approximation schemes. Specifically, we propose a graph-based Benders decomposition (gBD) framework that enables the exploitation of hierarchical (nested) structures and that uses graph aggregation/partitioning procedures to discover such structures. In addition, we provide a Julia implementation of gBD, which we call PlasmoBenders.jl. We illustrate the capabilities using examples arising in the context of energy and power systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

An investigation of hard-disk drive circularity accounting for socio-technical dynamics and data uncertainty

The installed data storage capacity in the U.S. will reach 2.2 Zettabytes by 2025, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life (EOL) hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. Due to data security concerns, most EOL HDDs are currently shredded (even when still functioning), representing an economic loss. Moreover, raw material extraction linked to the increased demand for storage causes environmental impacts. Besides mitigating the threat posed by sudden restrictions of raw materials, the circular economy (CE) offers to maximize value retention in the economy and reduce the environmental impacts of human activities. Common CE strategies are reusing and recycling products. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is currently burdened by the lack of trust HDD end-users have toward other non-physical means of data removal than shredding. Here, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to explore how techno-economic and social factors affect end-users' decisions to adopt EOL management practices other than shredding. The proposed method also accounts for data uncertainty by applying a semi-quantitative approach. Results demonstrate how increased green procurement and more robust standards could spur end-users' trust toward data-wiping technologies. Even when accounting for uncertainty, HDDs' reuse brings better environmental and economic benefits than HDD shredding followed by material recovery. The semi-quantitative approach proposed in this study could be more universally applied in future ABM, especially given the often-stochastic nature of such models. The developed ABM is also the first to represent several HDD industry stakeholders and demonstrate how the HDD shredding lock-in situation could be resolved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1998

Preliminary Work for Examining the Scalability of Reinforcement Learning

Researchers began studying automated agents that learn to perform multiple-step tasks early in the history of artificial intelligence (Samuel, 1963; Samuel, 1967; Waterman, 1970; Fikes, Hart & Nilsonn, 1972). Multiple-step tasks are tasks that can only be solved via a sequence of decisions, such as control problems, robotics problems, classic problem-solving, and game-playing. The objective of agents attempting to learn such tasks is to use the resources they have available in order to become more proficient at the tasks. In particular, each agent attempts to develop a good policy, a mapping from states to actions, that allows it to select actions that optimize a measure of its performance on the task; for example, reducing the number of steps necessary to complete the task successfully. Our study focuses on reinforcement learning, a set of learning techniques where the learner performs trial-and-error experiments in the task and adapts its policy based on the outcome of those experiments. Much of the work in reinforcement learning has focused on a particular, simple representation, where every problem state is represented explicitly in a table, and associated with each state are the actions that can be chosen in that state. A major advantage of this table lookup representation is that one can prove that certain reinforcement learning techniques will develop an optimal policy for the current task. The drawback is that the representation limits the application of reinforcement learning to multiple-step tasks with relatively small state-spaces. There has been a little theoretical work that proves that convergence to optimal solutions can be obtained when using generalization structures, but the structures are quite simple. The theory says little about complex structures, such as multi-layer, feedforward artificial neural networks (Rumelhart & McClelland, 1986), but empirical results indicate that the use of reinforcement learning with such structures is promising. These empirical results make no theoretical claims, nor compare the policies produced to optimal policies. A goal of our work is to be able to make the comparison between an optimal policy and one stored in an artificial neural network. A difficulty of performing such a study is finding a multiple-step task that is small enough that one can find an optimal policy using table lookup, yet large enough that, for practical purposes, an artificial neural network is really required. We have identified a limited form of the game OTHELLO as satisfying these requirements. The work we report here is in the very preliminary stages of research, but this paper provides background for the problem being studied and a description of our initial approach to examining the problem. In the remainder of this paper, we first describe reinforcement learning in more detail. Next, we present the game OTHELLO. Finally we argue that a restricted form of the game meets the requirements of our study, and describe our preliminary approach to finding an optimal solution to the problem.

Clouse, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Performance Assessment of NASA's Heliophysics Program

Recognizing the importance of distributed observations of all elements of the Sun-to-Earth system and the synergies between observation and theory and between basic and targeted research, the National Research Council's 2003 solar and space physics decadal survey laid out an integrated research strategy that sought to extend and augment what has now become the Heliophysics Great Observatory as well as to enhance NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DOD's other solar and space physics research activities. The Integrated Research Strategy provided a prioritized list of flight missions and theory and modeling programs that would advance the relevant physical theories, incorporate those theories in models that describe a system of interactions between the Sun and the space environment, obtain data on the system, and analyze and test the adequacy of the theories and models. As directed by Congress in the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, the purpose of this report is to assess the progress of NASA's Heliophysics Division at the 5-year mark against the NASA goals and priorities laid out in the decadal survey. In addition to the Integrated Research Strategy, the decadal survey also considered non-mission-specific initiatives to foster a robust solar and space physics program. The decadal survey set forth driving science challenges as well as recommendations devoted to the need for technology development, collaborations and cooperation with other disciplines, understanding the effects of the space environment on technology and society, education and public outreach, and steps that could strengthen and enhance the research enterprise. Unfortunately, very little of the recommended NASA program priorities from the decadal survey s Integrated Research Strategy will be realized during the period (2004-2013) covered by the survey. Mission cost growth, reordering of survey mission priorities, and unrealized budget assumptions have delayed or deferred nearly all of the NASA spacecraft missions recommended in the survey. As a result, the status of the Integrated Research Strategy going forward is in jeopardy, and the loss of synergistic capabilities in space will constitute a serious impediment to future progress. Some of these factors were largely outside NASA's control, but as the assessments in Chapter 2 of this report detail, many factors were driven by subsequent NASA decisions about mission science content, mission size, and mission sequence. Overcoming these challenges, as well as other key issues like launch vehicle availability, will be critical if NASA is to realize more of the decadal survey's priorities over the next 5 years as well as priorities in solar and space physics research in the long term. Chapter 3 of this report provides recommendations about how NASA can better fulfill the 2003 decadal survey and improve future decadal surveys in solar and space physics.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Weights for Exploration Datasets in Magmatic Environments

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), weights needed to be developed for use in the weighted sum of the different favorability index models produced from geoscientific exploration datasets. This GDR submission includes those weights. The weighting was done using two different approaches: one based on expert opinions, and one based on statistical learning. The weights are intended to describe how useful a particular exploration method is for imaging each component of each play type. They may be adjusted based on the characteristics of the resource under investigation, knowledge of the quality of the dataset, or simply to reduce the impact a single dataset has on the resulting outputs. Within the DEEPEN PFA, separate sets of weights are produced for each component of each play type, since exploration methods hold different levels of importance for detecting each play component, within each play type. The weights for conventional hydrothermal systems were based on the average of the normalized weights used in the DOE-funded PFA projects that were focused on magmatic plays. This decision was made because conventional hydrothermal plays are already well-studied and understood, and therefore it is logical to use existing weights where possible. In contrast, a true PFA has never been applied to superhot EGS or supercritical plays, meaning that exploration methods have never been weighted in terms of their utility in imaging the components of these plays. To produce weights for superhot EGS and supercritical plays, two different approaches were used: one based on expert opinion and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and another using a statistical approach based on principal component analysis (PCA). The weights are intended to provide standardized sets of weights for each play type in all magmatic geothermal systems. Two different approaches were used to investigate whether a more data-centric approach might allow new insights into the datasets, and also to analyze how different weighting approaches impact the outcomes. The expert/AHP approach involved using an online tool (https://bpmsg.com/ahp/) with built-in forms to make pairwise comparisons which are used to rank exploration methods against one-another. The inputs are then combined in a quantitative way, ultimately producing a set of consensus-based weights. To minimize the burden on each individual participant, the forms were completed in group discussions. While the group setting means that there is potential for some opinions to outweigh others, it also provides a venue for conversation to take place, in theory leading the group to a more robust consensus then what can be achieved on an individual basis. This exercise was done with two separate groups: one consisting of U.S.-based experts, and one consisting of Iceland-based experts in magmatic geothermal systems. The two sets of weights were then averaged to produce what we will from here on refer to as the "expert opinion-based weights," or "expert weights" for short. While expert opinions allow us to include more nuanced information in the weights, expert opinions are subject to human bias. Data-centric or statistical approaches help to overcome these potential human biases by focusing on and drawing conclusions from the data alone. More information on this approach along with the dataset used to produce the statistical weights may be found in the linked dataset below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Managing the techno-economic impacts of partial string failure in multistring energy storage systems

The role of energy storage systems (ESSs) is becoming increasingly important for today’s electric power systems. Unavailability of an ESS assigned to critical grid services may cause unwanted disruption of those services and hence, may have a significant techno-economic impact. Like any physical equipment, an ESS is vulnerable to various types of faults. Failure of one or more strings in a multistring ESS does not have to be the cause of shutting down the entire ESS. It can still operate with a partial number of strings and continue providing critical services to the grid, if there are no reliability or safety issues and is acceptable under applicable standards. However, it is important to make sure that the control strategies are adaptable to the changes in ESS capacity caused by failed strings. Also, depending on the previous operation and type of failure, the reallocation of duty cycle burden among available strings could be non-uniform. These complexities suggest that mitigation of the impact of partial failure in multistring ESSs is not trivial and needs careful consideration. This is the topic of this paper. The proposed work investigates the impact of partial failure of a large multistring ESS on the assigned service and develops strategies to adjust the ESS control duty cycles for reducing such impacts. In doing so, the paper proposes a novel two-stage framework that plans for the multistring failure using robust optimization theory and then adjusts in real-time using a rule-based algorithm, based on the real-time information on the power availability of the string. Illustrations provided in this work are based on frequency regulation use-case, which is a common application for many utility-scale ESSs. A 750 kilowatt (kW)/1500 kilowatt-hour (kWh) 3-string ESS is used for the demonstration in this work and the efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated and compared against methods that do not incorporate string failure in their strategy. In particular, here we show that revenue loss of 93% can be incurred when partial string failure is not included in operation and planning. These losses in revenue are reduced by 60% with the proposed method.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constellation: The autonomous control and data acquisition system for dynamic experimental setups

The operation of instruments and detectors in laboratory or beamline environments presents a complex challenge, requiring stable operation of multiple concurrent devices, often controlled by separate hardware and software solutions. These environments frequently undergo modifications, such as the inclusion of different auxiliary devices depending on the experiment or facility, adding further complexity. The successful management of such dynamic configurations demands a flexible and robust system capable of controlling data acquisition, monitoring experimental setups, enabling seamless reconfiguration, and integrating new devices with limited effort. This paper presents Constellation, a flexible and network-distributed control and data acquisition software framework tailored to laboratory and beamline environments, that addresses the limitations of existing solutions. The framework is designed with a focus on extensibility, providing a streamlined interface for instrument integration. It supports efficient system setup via network discovery mechanisms, promotes stability through autonomous operational features, and provides comprehensive documentation and supporting tools for operators and application developers such as controllers and logging interfaces. At the core of the architectural design is the autonomy of the individual components, called satellites, which can make independent decisions about their operation and communicate these decisions to other components. This paper introduces the design principles and framework architecture of Constellation, presents the available graphical user interfaces, shares insights from initial successful deployments, and provides an outlook on future developments and applications.

Autonomy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Analysis of Post Attack Impacts and Effects of Learning Parameters on Vulnerability Assessment of Power Grid

Due to the increasing number of heterogeneous devices connected to electric power grid, the attack surface increases the threat actors. Game theory and machine learning are being used to study the power system failures caused by external manipulation. Most of existing works in the literature focus on one-shot process of attacks and fail to show the dynamic evolution of the defense strategy. In this paper, we focus on an adversarial multistage sequential game between the adversaries of the smart electric power transmission and distribution system. We study the impact of exploration rate and convergence of the attack strategies (sequences of action that creates large scale blackout based on the system capacity) based on the reinforcement learning approach. We also illustrate how the learned attack actions disrupt the normal operation of the grid by creating transmission line outages, bus voltage violations, and generation loss. This simulation studies are conducted on IEEE 9 and 39 bus systems. The results show the improvement of the defense strategy through the learning process. The results also prove the feasibility of the learned attack actions by replicating the disturbances created in simulated power system.

attack impacts↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolutionary Game Dynamics between Distributed Energy Resources and Microgrid Operator: Balancing Act for Power Factor Improvement

This article investigates the intricate dynamics between Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and the Microgrid Operator (MGO) within a microgrid interconnected with the main grid. Employing an evolutionary game framework, the study scrutinizes the strategic evolution of DERs’ decision-making processes in their interactions with the MGO. Modeled as an evolutionary game, these interactions encapsulate the strategies adopted by DERs, resulting in stable equilibrium strategies over time. Motivated by direct benefits linked to increased active power production, DERs strive to sell all available power, while the MGO focuses on optimizing the microgrid’s overall performance. The study assesses the microgrid’s performance in terms of its power factor, emphasizing the strategic balance DERs must achieve in their active power generation to avoid penalization. This penalization results in decreased individual utility for DERs due to the overall power factor decrease resulting from their prioritization of active power generation. Additionally, the diminished overall power factor implies a decrease in MGO utility. The individual utility of each DER is further influenced by the strategies adopted by other DERs, impacting the penalization factor. Leveraging a modified IEEE 13-node distribution microgrid consisting of three DERs, the study presents case studies encompassing both cooperative and non-cooperative evolutionary game scenarios. These case studies illuminate the intricacies of interactions and the resulting equilibrium outcomes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗