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DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Economic Value of Enhanced Power System Resilience

The costs that power interruptions impose on customers and society have emerged as essential considerations for decision making about power system reliability and resilience. There is well-established literature on the direct costs of localized and relatively short-duration power interruptions. However, far less is known about the costs of widespread and long-duration (WLD) power interruptions, especially the indirect costs and related economy-wide impacts of these events. As a result, utility planning activities generally incorporate these costs incompletely or not at all. This report proposes a new approach to estimating WLD power interruption costs to support utility resilience planning studies. Specifically, the paper describes a hybrid method that integrates: (1) empirical surveys of region- and sector-specific inherent and adaptive customer behaviors during and after power interruptions, and (2) computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, which estimates the direct and indirect impacts of WLD power interruptions. The report provides both a rationale for the proposed hybrid approach and a roadmap outlining how it could be implemented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implications of rootless geothermal models: Missing processes, parameter compensation, and imposter convection

Numerical models of geothermal systems commonly capture only the top of a reservoir. Deeper areas of the reservoir are simplified to a boundary at the base of the model domain. Commonly, the basal boundary is given either a heat source or a source of mass and enthalpy. Here we developed and present simple numerical experiments which demonstrate that these approaches do not produce the correct model behavior in comparison to a model that captures the entire convecting domain with a heat flux only. We describe a variety of incorrect types of model behavior that arise directly from the choice of boundary condition, independent of the specific parameterization of the model. Heat sources are sensitive to the thickness of the domain and parameters take unphysical values to compensate for the reduced height. The combined mass/heat boundary can produce temperatures that show similarities to circulating geothermal systems, but with incorrect fluid flow and a strong boundary layer focused at the base of the simulated clay cap. These errors likely cause parameters to adjust their values to compensate for the incorrect physics. We highlight these issues and show an example from a developed reservoir model. Initial calibrations to natural state temperature were unsuitable for history matching. The 3D model required parameter adjustments to achieve a more realistic production model. Appropriate mitigation measures should be considered to reduce parameter compensation and improve decision-support models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conceptual design of a replacement 2.1 K cold box for the Spallation Neutron Source Central Helium Liquefier

Abstract After more than 20 years of operation, the cold compressor technology in use at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is obsolete, and replacement parts and service are no longer available. SNS has partnered with Jefferson Lab to design and construct a replacement sub-atmospheric cold box outfitted with modern cold compressor technology. The general design follows from Jefferson Lab’s experience on other recent sub-atmospheric cold box projects. Design decisions are backed by thorough engineering analysis to ensure technical requirements are met in a cost-effective manner. Conceptual design of the replacement cold box has been completed, and will be summarized in this paper. It features five cold compressors with an operating flow range of 80-140 g/s, and includes piping and valving to support cold compressor maintenance without interrupting flow circulation to the load. The approach to thermal shielding, insulation, and integration of the upgraded cold compressor hardware into the existing SNS control system will also be addressed.

Mastracci, B [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerato↗

DOE OSTI2023

Can the United States Maintain Its Leadership in High-Performance Computing? - A report from the ASCAC Subcommittee on American Competitiveness and Innovation to the ASCR Office

The United States (U.S.) is no longer the unambiguous leader in the vitally important field of high performance computing (HPC). Japan, the European Union (EU), and China have fielded systems that are on par with our fastest supercomputers. The supply chain for everything from semiconductors to scientific software is globally distributed. Yet our economic future and security depend critically on our ability to innovate faster than our competitors, and the speed of innovation depends increasingly on large-scale computational science and engineering and thus HPC. How should the United States respond to this challenge? This report seeks to initiate a new and potentially transformative national discussion on this vital question. The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program is well-positioned to make informed, targeted decisions about where the United States should cooperate and where it should compete in the global market for scientific exploration and discovery. By setting its sights on problems critical to our nation and the world, by establishing productive new collaborations, and by making strategic investments, ASCR can restore and maintain U.S. scientific leadership in the critical areas described in this report while strengthening our research infrastructure and training a large, diverse cohort of scientists. In doing so, ASCR and its scientists will pave the way for a secure and prosperous future for America. For more than 30 years, the ASCR program has provided the HPC and networking capabilities and expertise needed to support DOE’s mission to advance the national, economic, and energy security of the United States. The program now faces the challenge of developing and deploying the next generation of HPC systems and technologies, as well as supporting the application of HPC and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to a wide range of scientific and engineering research problems. Through its research and development efforts, the ASCR program must also advance the state of the art in HPC and accelerate the pace of scientific discovery and technological innovation. Fulfilling this promise will require significantly increased investments, as well as innovative policies and programs. This subcommittee is aware that we are making recommendations and calls for action at a time when federal resources are limited. We understand that a wide range of competing priorities must be balanced by the nation’s leaders and that there is a need to leverage resources in new ways and seek efficiencies in facilities and operations. However, we must not let these realities limit our imagination or silence our advocacy. The ASCR program is a key part of the U.S. research infrastructure and an important component of economic growth and U.S. competitiveness. ASCR has a responsibility to pursue its mission, including advanced scientific computing, applications of AI technologies, and the required advanced research facilities, with determination and enthusiasm. To fulfill the scientific enterprise’s responsibility to the nation, the ASCR program must not only develop and publish a clear vision with an associated list of goals, priorities, and recommendations but also demonstrate scientific leadership by consistently securing long-term funding. This will allow the program to build on its achievements to date, to realize its ambitious vision, and to make lasting contributions to the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey

The 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) was administered by the California Department of Transportation, which collected demographic and travel behavior characteristics for residents across the entire state. At the time, it was the largest such regional or statewide survey ever conducted in the United States. Detailed travel behavior information was obtained from more than 42,500 households via multiple data-collection methods, including computer-assisted telephone interviewing, online and mail surveys, wearable (7,574 participants) and in-vehicle (2,910 vehicles) global positioning system devices, and on-board diagnostic sensors that gathered data directly from a vehicle's engine. Details of personal travel behavior were gathered within the region of residence, inter-regionally within the state, and in adjoining states and Mexico. The survey sampling plan was designed to ensure an accurate representation of the entire population of the state. The CHTS included additional features, such as vehicle-acquisition decisions, parking choices, work schedules and flexibility, use of toll lanes/priced facilities, and walk and bicycle trips, to support advanced model development.

1Hz data↗

DOE OSTI2024

Triton Initiative: FY 2024 Communications, Outreach, and Engagement End-of-Year Report

The Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) Triton Initiative works to reduce barriers to permitting of marine energy testing and installation through environmental monitoring research that can help inform decision-makers on potential environmental effects associated with these systems. Communications, outreach, and engagement efforts are critical to Triton's success, which involves facilitating the effective communication and dissemination of environmental monitoring research information and results to end-users and fostering collaborations between researchers and industry partners to address the most pressing needs of this emerging industry. The Triton Initiative's communications, outreach, and engagement (TCOE) foundational goals are to educate and raise awareness of ME and the role of Triton's environmental monitoring research in supporting the industry, build trust with audiences through transparent communications and outreach, and evaluate and refine TCOE tactics based on feedback and metrics. The TCOE FY 2024-specific objectives were to (1) refine and grow Triton's audience network by reaching new individuals and communities within Triton's target audience base, and (2) improve the strategy and evaluation of TCOE efforts to demonstrate the value of communications and outreach for the ME community. This report presents the results and analysis of communications activities from September 1, 2023 through August 31, 2024. We assess the TCOE target audiences, highlight notable successes and lessons learned from FY2024, and identify the most effective channels and activities used to connect with those audiences to achieve the TCOE goals.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Quantum Machine Learning to High Energy Physics Analysis at LHC using IBM Quantum Computer Simulators and IBM Quantum Computer Hardware

One of the major objectives of the experimental programs at the LHC is the discovery of new physics. This requires the identification of rare signals in immense backgrounds. Using machine learning algorithms greatly enhances our ability to achieve this objective. With the progress of quantum technologies, quantum machine learning could become a powerful tool for data analysis in high energy physics. In this study, using IBM gate-model quantum computing systems, we employ the quantum variational classifier method and the quantum kernel estimator method in two recent LHC flagship physics analyses: $t\bar{t}H$ (Higgs boson production in association with a top quark pair) and $H\rightarrow\mu\mu$ (Higgs boson decays to two muons). We have obtained early results with 10 qubits on the IBM quantum simulator and the IBM quantum hardware. On the quantum simulator, the quantum machine learning methods perform similarly to classical algorithms such as SVM (support vector machine) and BDT (boosted decision tree), which are often employed in LHC physics analyses. On the quantum hardware, the quantum machine learning methods have shown promising discrimination power, comparable to that on the quantum simulator. This study demonstrates that quantum machine learning has the ability to differentiate between signal and background in realistic physics datasets.

Chan, Jay↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decision and Control of Complex Systems – A Data-Drive Framework

During the project period, we have collaborated with other team members and developed novel algorithms for novelty detection, continual learning, and graph learning algorithms for dynamic systems. The results are documented in publications and meeting notes. Moreover, we leverage virtual collaboration tools (such as Basecamp, Microsoft Teams and Zoom) for technical exchanges. Our research on novelty detection was published at AAAI 2022 and Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, Springer Nature. The newly developed algorithms were successfully applied to realistic cases, including thermal data from buildings at Pacific Northwest National Lab and microelectronic data provided by GlobalFoundries. Multiple publications have been produced from this project, in collaboration with other team members. Three PhD students were supported in this project to conduct their research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting Current Paradigms: Subject Matter Expert Views on High Consequence Facility Security Assessments

Security assessments support decision-makers' ability to evaluate current capabilities of high consequence facilities (HCF) to respond to possible attacks. However, increasing complexity of today's operational environment requires a critical review of traditional approaches to ensure that implemented assessments are providing relevant and timely insights into security of HCFs. Using interviews and focus groups with diverse subject matter experts (SMEs), this study evaluated the current state of security assessments and identified opportunities to achieve a more "ideal" state. The SME-based data underscored the value of a systems approach for understanding the impacts of changing operational designs and contexts (as well as cultural influences) on security to address methodological shortcomings of traditional assessment processes. These findings can be used to inform the development of new approaches to HCF security assessments that are able to more accurately reflect changing operational environments and effectively mitigate concerns arising from new adversary capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taming the Wild West: Assessing Impacts-Relevant Climate Data Products (Abbreviated Report)

Impacts-relevant Earth system data refers to observational and ESM data that are downscaled, debiased, validated, and provisioned for use by decision-makers. Impacts-relevant Earth system data is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning across a variety of regions and sectors. A vast number of these data products have emerged in recent years, which has led to confusion among stakeholders and scientists as to the best product to use. With no standard evaluation protocol available for these products, the decision on which product to use was sometimes made because it was pragmatic rather than the best product to use. This project sought to develop foundational capabilities around impacts-relevant data products that would support more informed selection and application of these products. This work has been immensely successful, driving several academic publications and supported the development of a community of practice around impacts-relevant data products. Over the project’s three years we have addressed six tasks: First, the development of standard evaluation metrics for impacts-relevant climate data; second, the development of a novel suite of atmospheric river metrics; third, the development of novel metrics for precipitation feature analysis; fourth, the development of novel metrics for assessing co-variances between temperature and precipitation; fifth, the development of a dashboard for interactive examination of impacts-relevant climate data; and sixth, the establishment of a community of practice around impacts-relevant climate data that will continue beyond the conclusion of this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taming the Wild West: Assessing Impacts-Relevant Climate Data Products (Final Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Governance and Resilience: A Holistic Approach to Systems Security in Complex and Chaotic Environments

Here, a systems governance approach emphasizes a holistic perspective that identifies and navigates the interdependencies and conflicts between security and operational needs. Governance is defined as a collection of metasystems that provide the necessary constraints and processes to support, steer, adapt, transform, and sustain a system (Keating et al. 2022). Utilizing the Cynefin framework, which distinguishes between simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic environments (Snowden and Boone 2007), the article highlights the challenges faced by nuclear power plants in predatory contexts and the importance of integrating security objectives into governance frameworks. By incorporating security as a fundamental aspect of governance, the article underscores its significance for persistence, adaptation, and transformation in the face of uncertainty. Additionally, it introduces key heuristics of systems security, such as the importance of context, knowledge‐based decision‐making, and organization‐specific sociological factors (Williams and Caskey 2024). Ultimately, this work provides valuable insights into enhancing resilient operations in complex environments by reinforcing the connection between effective governance and security in systems engineering.

Caskey, Susan A. [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗

DOE OSTI2023

A biomass map of the Brazilian Amazon from multisource remote sensing

The Amazon Forest, the largest contiguous tropical forest in the world, stores a significant fraction of the carbon on land. Changes in climate and land use affect total carbon stocks, making it critical to continuously update and revise the best estimates for the region, particularly considering changes in forest dynamics. Forest inventory data cover only a tiny fraction of the Amazon region, and the coverage is not sufficient to ensure reliable data interpolation and validation. This paper presents a new forest above-ground biomass map for the Brazilian Amazon and the associated uncertainty both with a resolution of 250 meters and baseline for the satellite dataset the year of 2016 (i.e., the year of the satellite observation). A significant increase in data availability from forest inventories and remote sensing has enabled progress towards high-resolution biomass estimates. This work uses the largest airborne LiDAR database ever collected in the Amazon, mapping 360,000 km 2 through transects distributed in all vegetation categories in the region. The map uses airborne laser scanning (ALS) data calibrated by field forest inventories that are extrapolated to the region using a machine learning approach with inputs from Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), vegetation indices obtained from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and precipitation information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A total of 174 field inventories geolocated using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) were used to validate the biomass estimations. The experimental design allowed for a comprehensive representation of several vegetation types, producing an above-ground biomass map varying from a maximum value of 518 Mg ha -1 , a mean of 174 Mg ha -1 , and a standard deviation of 102 Mg ha -1 . This unique dataset enabled a better representation of the regional distribution of the forest biomass and structure, providing further studies and critical information for decision-making concerning forest conservation, planning, carbon emissions estimate, and mechanisms for supporting carbon emissions reductions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Autonomous elemental characterization enabled by a low cost robotic platform built upon a generalized software architecture

Despite the rapidly growing applications of robots in industry, the use of robots to automate tasks in scientific laboratories is less prolific due to the lack of generalized methodologies and the high cost of hardware. This paper focuses on the automation of characterization tasks necessary for reducing cost while maintaining generalization and proposes a software architecture for building robotic systems in scientific laboratory environments. A dual-layer (Socket.IO and ROS) action server design is the basic building block, which facilitates the implementation of a web-based front end for user-friendly operation and the use of ROS Behavior Trees for convenient task planning and execution. A robotic platform for automating mineral and material sample characterization is built upon the architecture, with an open-source, low-cost three-axis computer numerical control gantry system serving as the main robot. A handheld laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) analyzer is integrated with a 3D printed adapter, enabling (1) automated 2D chemical mapping and (2) autonomous sample measurement (with the support of an RGB-Depth camera). We demonstrate the utility of automated chemical mapping by scanning the surface of a spodumene-bearing pegmatite core sample with a 1071-point dense hyperspectral map acquired at a rate of 1520 bits per second. Furthermore, we showcase the autonomy of the platform in terms of perception, dynamic decision-making, and execution, through a case study of LIBS measurement of multiple mineral samples. The platform enables controlled and autonomous chemical quantification in the laboratory that complements field-based measurements acquired with the same handheld device, linking resource exploration and processing steps in the supply chain for lithium-based battery materials.

Cao, Xuan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mitigating the Impacts of Uncertain Geomagnetic Disturbances on Electric Grids: A Distributionally Robust Optimization Approach

Severe geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) increase the magnitude of the electric field on the Earth’s surface (E-field) and drive geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) along the transmission lines in electric grids. These additional currents can pose severe risks, such as current distortions, transformer saturation and increased reactive power losses, each of which can lead to system unreliability. Today several mitigation actions (e.g., changing grid topology) exist that can reduce the harmful GIC effects on the grids. Making such decisions can be challenging, however, because the magnitude and direction of the E-field are uncertain and non-stationary. In this paper, we model uncertain E-fields using the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach that determines optimal transmission grid operations such that the worst-case expectation of the system cost is minimized. We also capture the effect of GICs on the nonlinear AC power flow equations. For solution approaches, we develop an accelerated column-and-constraint generation (CCG) algorithm by exploiting a special structure of the support set of uncertain parameters representing the E-field. Extensive numerical experiments based on “epri-21” and “uiuc-150” systems, designed for GMD studies, demonstrate (i) the computational performance of the accelerated CCG algorithm, (ii) the superior performance of distributionally robust grid operations that satisfy nonlinear, nonconvex AC power flow equations and GIC constraints, in comparison with standard stochastic programming-based methods during the out-of-sample testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wireless Sensing and Communication Capability from In-Core to a Monitoring Center

Significant cost savings can be made if electrical cables can be replaced by wireless technology in current Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) and in advance reactor designs. Wireless technology can also provide in-core opportunities by significantly reducing the number of penetrations in the pressure vessel, cost and complexity of sensor installation and by increasing the efficiency of current and advanced reactors. Unlike other deployment scenarios for an industrial environment, operators need to have centralized control over all the networks. Centralized control will reduce implementation costs, provide single point control and enable monitoring of network devices, improve security, and enhance connectivity. Micro-sensors that can simultaneously monitor temperature and pressure within a fuel rod inside nuclear reactors will enable preventative actions during abnormal operating conditions. This ability could avert accidents and enable the expedient development of accident tolerant fuels. A novel micro-sensor suite (~ mm) to simultaneously measure multiple parameters such as temperature, strain, pressure, and neutron/gamma flux inside a fuel rod is being developed for use in reactors. The necessary communication architecture is also being developed to transmit measurement signals from the core to the plant's data cloud or control room. A three three-tier strategy has been developed to support wireless transmission of in-core measurements to the control room or to a secure cloud platform for control, analytics, and decision-making purposes. 1. In-core: data signal from in-core to outside of the pressure vessel within the containment building 2. Containment building: data signal from inside to the outside of the containment building and into the balance of the plant network 3. Balance of the plant network: information transmitted to the data cloud and control room This plan presents a wireless sensing and communication system for use within a reactor core and elsewhere. The communication technology is advantageous to compensate for network equipment failures and adverse data transmission conditions. Wireless technology will significantly increase the resiliency of the plants network system. The wireless system naturally provides multiple transmission path capability and data redundancy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗

DOE OSTI2021

Selecting durable building envelope systems with machine learning assisted hygrothermal simulations database

Hygrothermal simulations provide insight into the energy performance and moisture durability of building envelope components under dynamic conditions. The inputs required for hygrothermal simulations are extensive, and carrying out simulations and analyses requires expert knowledge. An expert system, the Building Science Advisor (BSA), has been developed to predict the performance and select the energy-efficient and durable building envelope systems for different climates. The BSA consists of decision rules based on expert opinions and thousands of parametric simulation results for selected wall systems. The number of potential wall systems results in millions, too many to simulate all of them. We present how machine learning can help predict durability data, such as mold growth, while minimizing the number of simulations needed to run. The simulation results are used for training and validation of machine learning tools for predicting wall durability. We tested Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) for their applicability and model accuracy. Models developed with both methods showed adequate prediction performance (root mean square error of 0.195 and 0.209, respectively). Finally, we introduce how the information supports guidance for envelope design via an easy-to-use web-based tool that does not require the end-user to run hygrothermal simulations.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗