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At least 505 records · Page 28

Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Systems Applications

This presentation is part of panel discussion on Evaluating Models of Human Performance. The purpose of this panel is to discuss the increasing use of models in the world today and specifically focus on how to describe and evaluate models of human performance. My presentation will focus on discussions of generating distributions of performance, and the evaluation of different strategies for humans performing tasks with mixed initiative (Human-Automation) systems. I will also discuss issues with how to provide Human Performance modeling data to support decisions on acceptability and tradeoffs in the design of safety critical systems. I will conclude with challenges for the future.

Feary, Michael S.↗

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.

Timothy Bonin↗

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.

research roadmap↗

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Determination of an Optimal Commercial Data Bus Architecture for a Flight Data System

NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is continually looking for methods to reduce cost and schedule while keeping the quality of work high. MSFC is NASA's lead center for space transportation and microgravity research. When supporting NASA's programs several decisions concerning the avionics system must be made. Usually many trade studies must be conducted to determine the best ways to meet the customer's requirements. When deciding the flight data system, one of the first trade studies normally conducted is the determination of the data bus architecture. The schedule, cost, reliability, and environments are some of the factors that are reviewed in the determination of the data bus architecture. Based on the studies, the data bus architecture could result in a proprietary data bus or a commercial data bus. The cost factor usually removes the proprietary data bus from consideration. The commercial data bus's range from Versa Module Eurocard (VME) to Compact PCI to STD 32 to PC 104. If cost, schedule and size are prime factors, VME is usually not considered. If the prime factors are cost, schedule, and size then Compact PCI, STD 32 and PC104 are the choices for the data bus architecture. MSFC's center director has funded a study from his discretionary fund to determine an optimal low cost commercial data bus architecture. The goal of the study is to functionally and environmentally test Compact PCI, STD 32 and PC 104 data bus architectures. This paper will summarize the results of the data bus architecture study.

Crawford, Kevin↗

Space station data system analysis/architecture study. Task 3: Trade studies, DR-5, volume 1

The primary objective of Task 3 is to provide additional analysis and insight necessary to support key design/programmatic decision for options quantification and selection for system definition. This includes: (1) the identification of key trade study topics; (2) the definition of a trade study procedure for each topic (issues to be resolved, key inputs, criteria/weighting, methodology); (3) conduct tradeoff and sensitivity analysis; and (4) the review/verification of results within the context of evolving system design and definition. The trade study topics addressed in this volume include space autonomy and function automation, software transportability, system network topology, communications standardization, onboard local area networking, distributed operating system, software configuration management, and the software development environment facility.

Source record↗

Hybrid Floating Solar Photovoltaics-Hydropower Systems: Benefits and Global Assessment of Technical Potential

Floating solar photovoltaics (FPV) is an emerging, and increasingly viable, application of photovoltaics (PV) in which systems are sited directly on waterbodies. Despite growing market interest, FPV system deployment is nascent, and potential adopters remain concerned about the technology, the benefits it offers, the advantages to pairing it in hybrid systems (such as with hydropower), and how to analyze technical potential. To support decision making, we provide a review of associated benefits of hybrid FPV-hydropower system operation and a novel, geospatial approach to assess the global technical potential of these systems employing publicly available, global datasets. We identify significant potential globally for FPV hybridized with hydropower ranging from 3.0?TW to 7.6?TW (4,251?TWh to 10,616?TWh annual generation), based on the assumptions made. We detail operational benefits that these hybrid systems may provide that could be quantified in future modeling and/or analyses of existing or planned hybrid systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Peters, Mark↗

Managing Complex Airplane System Failures Through a Structured Assessment of Airplane Capabilities

This report describes an analysis of current transport aircraft system-management displays and the initial development of a set of display concepts for providing information about aircraft system status. The new display concepts are motivated by a shift away from the current approach to aircraft system alerting that reports the status of physical components, and towards displaying the implications for mission capability. Specifically, the proposed display concepts describe transport airplane component failures in terms of operational consequences of aircraft system degradations. The research activity described in this report is an effort to examine the utility of different representations of complex systems and operating environments to support real-time decision making during off-nominal situations. A specific focus is to develop display concepts that provide more highly integrated information to allow pilots to more easily reason about the operational consequences of the off-nominal situations. The work can also serve as a foundational element to autonomy-supported decision making since we are developing ideas for integrating information from the airplane and the operational environment to support decision making.

operational decision making↗

eGridGPT: Trustworthy AI in the Control Room

This report outlines the synergy between human decision making and generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), where GenAI supports power system operators by analyzing procedures, suggesting actions, simulating scenarios with physics-based digital twins, and recommending optimal decisions. This report is the first research effort to apply large language models (LLMs), a type of GenAI, in the power grid control room. The authors describe the Electric Grid Generative Pretrained Transformer (eGridGPT), an LLM that virtually assists system operators. Developed with cybersecurity and regulatory requirements in mind, eGridGPT represents an opportunity to responsibly evolve control room technologies to meet the needs of a rapidly changing grid. As an innovative concept, eGridGPT seeks to spearhead productive discussions about the advanced technologies in the control room of the future amid the transition to clean energy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Demonstrating Autonomous Mission Operations Onboard the International Space Station

The NASA Autonomous Mission Operations (AMO) project conducted an experiment to turn over operation and management of selected International Space Station (ISS) sys- tems to the on-board crew. ISS crews managed two different spacecraft systems: the Total Organic Carbon Analyzer (TOCA), a water quality analyzer, and Station Support Com- puters (SSC) laptops, which are non-critical crew computer systems. These systems were selected because they are representative of systems a future crew may need to operate au- tonomously during a deep space mission. The crew autonomously operated these systems, taking on mission operations functions traditionally performed by support teams on the ground, using new software tools that provide decision support algorithms for planning, monitoring and fault management, hardware schematics, system briefs, and data displays that are normally unavailable to the crew. The experiment lasted seven months, during which ISS crews managed TOCA and SSCs on 22 occasions. The AMO software processed data from TOCA and SSCs continuously during this seven month period. The combined performance of the software and crew achieved a 88 success rate on managing TOCA activity, the system for which ground-truth was available.

Autonomous Mission Operations↗

Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

Distributed water desalination and purification systems: perspective and future directions

Distributed water treatment and desalination (DWTD) systems are critical for the development of a diverse water portfolio of the desired quality and intended use at the target location. Widespread adoption of DWTD has been hampered given the need for round-the-clock monitoring and the lack of local technical expertise for system management. However, self-adaptive operation, real-time remote monitoring, supervisory control, and asset management of DWTD systems are now feasible with the implementation of advanced local system control, cyberinfrastructure that facilitates real-time cloud-based analytics, data management, and artificial intelligence–powered decision support. Such an approach will introduce transformative virtual networks of DWTD systems to provide needed water to locations that are not served by centralized and satellite water treatment and desalination systems.

Cohen, Yoram [University of California, Los Angele↗

Towards an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS): A Coupled Hydrologic-Hydraulic System for Water Balance Assessments

Effective management of water resources requires reliable estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including water balance components. But most land surface models run in uncoupled mode and do not produce river discharge at catchment scales to be useful for water resources management applications. Such integrated systems are also rare over India where hydrometeorological extremes have wreaked havoc on the economy and people. So, an Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) with a coupled land surface and a hydrodynamic model has been developed and driven by multiple meteorological forcings (0.1°, daily) to estimate land surface states, channel discharge, and floodplain inundation. ILDAS benefits from an integrated framework as well as the largest suite of observation records collected over India and has been used to produce a reanalysis product for 1981–2021 using four forcing datasets, namely, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), ECMWF’s ERA-5, and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation. We assessed the uncertainty and bias in these precipitation datasets and validated all major components of the terrestrial water balance, i.e., surface runoff, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage anomalies, evapotranspiration, and streamflow, against a combination of satellite and in situ observation datasets. Our assessment shows that ILDAS can represent the hydrological processes reasonably well over the Indian landmass with IMD precipitation showing the best relative performance. Evaluation against ESA-CCI soil moisture shows that MERRA-2 based estimates outperform the others, whereas ERA-5 performs best in simulating evapotranspiration when evaluated against MODIS ET. Evaluations against observed records show that CHIRPS-based estimates have the highest performance in reconstructing surface runoff and streamflow. Once operational, this system will be useful for supporting transboundary water management decision making in the region.

Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)↗

Thermal Band Atmospheric Correction Using Atmospheric Profiles Derived from Global Positioning System Radio Occultation and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

This Rapid Prototyping Capability study explores the potential to use atmospheric profiles derived from GPS (Global Positioning System) radio occultation measurements and by AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) onboard the Aqua satellite to improve surface temperature retrieval from remotely sensed thermal imagery. This study demonstrates an example of a cross-cutting decision support technology whereby NASA data or models are shown to improve a wide number of observation systems or models. The ability to use one data source to improve others will be critical to the GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) where a large number of potentially useful systems will require auxiliary datasets as input for decision support. Atmospheric correction of thermal imagery decouples TOA radiance and separates surface emission from atmospheric emission and absorption. Surface temperature can then be estimated from the surface emission with knowledge of its emissivity. Traditionally, radiosonde sounders or atmospheric models based on radiosonde sounders, such as the NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) ARL (Air Resources Laboratory) READY (Real-time Environmental Application and Display sYstem), provide the atmospheric profiles required to perform atmospheric correction. Unfortunately, these types of data are too spatially sparse and too infrequently taken. The advent of high accuracy, global coverage, atmospheric data using GPS radio occultation and AIRS may provide a new avenue for filling data input gaps. In this study, AIRS and GPS radio occultation derived atmospheric profiles from the German Aerospace Center CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload), the Argentinean Commission on Space Activities SAC-C (Satellite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C), and the pair of NASA GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites are used as input data in atmospheric radiative transport modeling based on the MODTRAN (MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmittance) radiative transport software to separate out the atmospheric component of measured top of atmosphere radiance. Simulated water bodies across a variety of MODTRAN model atmospheres including desert, mid-latitude, tropical and sub-artic conditions provide test bed conditions. Atmospherically corrected radiance and surface temperature results were compared to those obtained using traditional radiosonde balloon data and models. In general, differences between the different techniques were less than 2 percent indicating the potential value satellite derived atmospheric profiles have to atmospherically correct thermal imagery.

Pagnutti, Mary↗

An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

Chytka, T. M.↗

Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition, Volume 1

This document contains papers presented at the Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition held at the Johnson Space Center February 1-3, 1994. Possible technology transfers covered during the conference were in the areas of information access; innovative microwave and optical applications; materials and structures; marketing and barriers; intelligent systems; human factors and habitation; communications and data systems; business process and technology transfer; software engineering; biotechnology and advanced bioinstrumentation; communications signal processing and analysis; new ways of doing business; medical care; applications derived from control center data systems; human performance evaluation; technology transfer methods; mathematics, modeling, and simulation; propulsion; software analysis and decision tools systems/processes in human support technology; networks, control centers, and distributed systems; power; rapid development perception and vision technologies; integrated vehicle health management; automation technologies; advanced avionics; ans robotics technologies. More than 77 papers, 20 presentations, and 20 exhibits covering various disciplines were presented b experts from NASA, universities, and industry.

Kumar Krishen↗

Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition

This is the second volume of papers presented at the Dual-Use Space Technology Transfer Conference and Exhibition held at the Johnson Space Center February 1-3, 1994. Possible technology transfers covered during the conference were in the areas of information access; innovative microwave and optical applications; materials and structures; marketing and barriers; intelligent systems; human factors and habitation; communications and data systems; business process and technology transfer; software engineering; biotechnology and advanced bioinstrumentation; communications signal processing and analysis; medical care; applications derived from control center data systems; human performance evaluation; technology transfer methods; mathematics, modeling, and simulation; propulsion; software analysis and decision tools; systems/processes in human support technology; networks, control centers, and distributed systems; power; rapid development; perception and vision technologies; integrated vehicle health management; automation technologies; advanced avionics; and robotics technologies.

Krishen, Kumar↗