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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data

The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Basin-Wide Approaches to Hydropower Licensing

This presentation summarizes findings from a 2020 NREL technical report including the FERC relicensing process for non-federal hydropower projects, analyzes FERC-licensed projects with license expiration dates from 2018-2037, discusses FERC's authority to coordinate license terms of hydropower projects within a shared river basin and provides basin-wide case studies and considerations to hydropower relicensing. In the United States there are 1,043 active FERC-licensed hydroelectric projects with a total capacity of 56,097 MW. Of those, 647 with a total capacity of 21,870 MW have license expiration dates from 2018-2037. The expected workload in conjunction with the time, cost, and complexity associated with issuing a single new license has led to initiatives that aim to increase the efficiency of the relicensing process. Federal and state regulators and licensees in California, Maine, New York, and Wisconsin have begun to develop approaches to look at hydropower relicensing as part of a larger system - a river basin. These basin-wide approaches seek to coordinate different stages of the relicensing process for multiple projects at the same time. The goal of these basin-wide approaches is to increase the efficiency of the relicensing process and allow for a more comprehensive analysis of the cumulative impacts of the projects within the basin. These innovative approaches to relicensing could also reduce the workload for regulators and costs associated with relicensing. This presentation discusses some of the findings from the Basin-wide Approaches to Hydropower Relicensing: Case Studies and Considerations including a summary of the key considerations for the FERC relicensing process for non-federal hydropower projects, key findings from the analysis of FERC-licensed projects with license expiration dates from 2018-2037, discusses FERC's authority to coordinate license terms of hydropower projects within a shared river basin and provides basin-wide case studies and considerations to hydropower relicensing.

basin-wide↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying recharge processes into a vast “fossil” aquifer based on dynamic groundwater 81 Kr age evolution

Water in deep aquifers in arid regions is often considered to be "fossil" when modern recharge rates are negligible relative to the reservoir capacity. Over the past five decades, the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA) in the arid region of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Negev Desert (Israel) has been considered to contain fossil water based on 14 C dating, which revealed 14 C ages of about 30 kyr over most of the aquifer. However, this relatively homogeneous age distribution contradicts the expected increase in groundwater age in the direction of decreasing piezometric head along the flow trajectories. Here, dating results with the longer-lived 81 Kr radioisotope (t 1/2 = 229 ± 11 kyr) are presented, highlighting a wide age range of 40 kyr to 630 kyr in the confined sections of the aquifer, all with very low 14 C activity (<1 pmC). Elevated 81Kr and 14 C activities were only observed within or close to the system's recharge areas. These findings support a new perception of groundwater replenishment during different epochs from the early mid- Pleistocene to the Holocene. By tracking the downstream age evolution, rejuvenation was identified in places where the confinement had been breached. At other locations, the existence of an older groundwater body contributing to the aquifer was detected by means of strongly depleted 81 Kr activity. High spatial heterogeneity in groundwater ages close to the discharge zone of the system is attributed to pronounced age stratification with depth. Calculated ages in the more isolated sections of the system were used to assess regional flow velocity, hydraulic conductivity, and their agreement with present recharge rates. We conclude that regional aquifers in which low 14 C activity suggests homogeneous ancient groundwater age should be reevaluated with 81Kr. With an effective age range beyond one million years, this may enable the restoration of recharge history and provide crucial information for the management of groundwater resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complex exposure-burial history and Pleistocene sediment recycling in the dead sea rift with implications for the age of the Acheulean site of ‘Ubeidiya

Here, we present early Pleistocene burial ages of the ‘Ubeidiya Formation sediments in the Jordan Valley, a segment of the Dead Sea Rift Valley. A minimum age of ∼1.1 Ma is constrained both by paleomagnetic analysis and U-Pb dating of Melanopsis shells. Simple cosmogenic burial ages (i.e., one very long exposure period followed by one period of burial) calculated from the ratios of 26 Al to 10 Be and 10 Be concentrations indicate ages of ∼3 Ma, contradicting the geological and paleomagnetic constraints as well as a reasonable age of the ‘Ubeidiya archeological site, as it contains human remains. A more sophisticated way of treating the results, by combining numerical modeling of cosmogenic nuclide build up during repeated burial-exposure cycles, paleomagnetic analysis (indicating reverse polarity) and a minimum burial age of 1.1 Ma set by U-Pb dating of Melanopsis shells, suggests two most probable time slots (1.19-1.77 and 1.93- 2.14 Ma) for the absolute age of the ‘Ubeidiya Formation. However, the skewed distribution of cosmogenic isotope burial ages, with a median age of 2.05 Ma, indicates a much higher probability of the older ages, most likely >1.9 Ma. The exposure-burial history that emerges from the model implies recycling of sediments previously deposited and buried in the rift valley, between 4.5 and 3.2 Ma, and subsequently exhumed, eroded, transported and then redeposited along the ‘Ubeidiya paleo lake shoreline.

Acheulean↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reproducibility of Radiokrypton in Deep Desert Aquifers: Insights from a Decade of Research

Great technical advances have been achieved since the first atom-trap trace analysis (ATTA) -based radiokrypton application in Egypt, where 1 Myr old groundwater was discovered. Beyond advances in ATTA measurement capabilities, including reduction in sample size, analysis duration, and analytical uncertainty, major progress has been achieved over the past two decades in the sample collection and preparation techniques. These advances paved the expansion of ATTA-based noble gas applications to many other aquifers worldwide, illuminating the nature and flow pattern of deep groundwater systems. While the potential of this new analytical technique for old groundwater dating is well recognized, another important aspect yet to be examined is the reproducibility of radiokrypton in aquifers over time, i.e., how representative is a discrete groundwater sample, collected at a specific time and location, for the natural groundwater system? The likelihood of a negative answer is increased by flow-field disturbance in aquifers following massive groundwater abstraction. Here, in this work, we present repeated 81 Kr sampling and measurements in twenty-one sites over Israel, mostly of deep (up to 1 km) wells tapping confined aquifers in the arid to hyperarid Negev desert. The results demonstrate that radiokrypton measurements are indeed reproducible, even in cases where samples were collected as long as nine years apart and from highly productive (∼1 Mm 3 /yr order) pumping wells. Furthermore, many of the repeated measurements in this study (17 out of the 21 sites) were conducted with different ATTA Instruments in two different laboratories using slightly different sampling, preparation, and analysis techniques, yet with an overall good agreement. The consistency in the ATTA-based 81 Kr-dating results over time highlights the robustness of this state-of-the-art technique as a tool to unravel groundwater flow patterns and encourages further applications to many other yet-to-be-explored deep aquifers.

atom-trap trace analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collagen Turnover in Relation to Risk Factors and Hemodynamics in Human Intracranial Aneurysms

Determinants for molecular and structural instability, that is, impending growth or rupture, of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remain uncertain. To elucidate this, we endeavored to estimate the actual turnover rates of the main molecular constituent in human IA (collagen) on the basis of radiocarbon ( 14 C) birth dating in relation to IA hemodynamics. Collagen turnover rates in excised human IA samples were calculated using mathematical modeling of 14 C birth dating data of collagen in relation to risk factors and histological markers for collagen maturity/turnover in selected IA. Hemodynamics were simulated using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Collagen turnover rates were estimated in 46 IA (43 patients); computational fluid dynamics could be performed in 20 IA (20 patients). The mean collagen turnover rate (γ) constituted 126% (±1% error) per year. For patients with arterial hypertension, γ was greater than 2600% annually, whereas γ was distinctly lower with 32% (±1% error) per year for patients without risk factors, such as smoking and hypertension. There was a distinct association between histological presence of rather immature collagen in human IA and the presence of modifiable risk factors. Spatial-temporal averaged wall shear stress predicted rapid collagen turnover (odds ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0–2.7]). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated a good test accuracy (area under the curve, 0.798 [95% CI, 0.598–0.998]) for average wall shear stress with a threshold ≥4.9 Pa for rapid collagen turnover. Our data indicate that turnover rates and stability of collagen in human IA are strongly associated with the presence of modifiable risk factors and aneurysmal hemodynamics. Finally, these findings underline the importance of strict risk factor modification in patients with unruptured IA. Future should include more detailed risk factor data to establish a more causal understanding of hemodynamics and the rupture risk of individual IA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coral Gardens Reef, Belize: A refugium in the face of Caribbean-wide Acropora spp. coral decline

Caribbean Acropora spp. corals have undergone a decline in cover since the second half of the twentieth century. Loss of these architecturally complex and fast-growing corals has resulted in significant, cascading changes to the character, diversity, and available ecospaces of Caribbean reefs. Few thriving Acropora spp. populations exist today in the Caribbean and western North Atlantic seas, and our limited ability to access data from reefs assessed via long-term monitoring efforts means that reef scientists are challenged to determine resilience and longevity of existing Acropora spp. reefs. Here we used multiple dating methods to measure reef longevity and determine whether Coral Gardens Reef, Belize, is a refuge for Acropora cervicornis against the backdrop of wider Caribbean decline. We used a new genetic-aging technique to identify sample sites, and radiocarbon and high-precision uranium-thorium (U-Th) dating techniques to test whether one of the largest populations of extant A. cervicornis in the western Caribbean is newly established after the 1980s, or represents a longer-lived, stable population. We did so with respect for ethical sampling of a threatened species. Our data show corals ranging in age from 1910 ( 14 C) or 1915 ( 230 Th) to at least November 2019. While we cannot exclude the possibility of short gaps in the residence of A. cervicornis earlier in the record, the data show consistent and sustained living coral throughout the 1980s and up to at least 2019. We suggest that Coral Gardens has served as a refuge for A. cervicornis and that identifying other, similar sites may be critical to efforts to grow, preserve, conserve, and seed besieged Caribbean reefs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

New Orthophoto Generation Strategies from UAV and Ground Remote Sensing Platforms for High-Throughput Phenotyping

Remote sensing platforms have become an effective data acquisition tool for digital agriculture. Imaging sensors onboard unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and tractors are providing unprecedented high-geometric-resolution data for several crop phenotyping activities (e.g., canopy cover estimation, plant localization, and flowering date identification). Among potential products, orthophotos play an important role in agricultural management. Traditional orthophoto generation strategies suffer from several artifacts (e.g., double mapping, excessive pixilation, and seamline distortions). The above problems are more pronounced when dealing with mid- to late-season imagery, which is often used for establishing flowering date (e.g., tassel and panicle detection for maize and sorghum crops, respectively). In response to these challenges, this paper introduces new strategies for generating orthophotos that are conducive to the straightforward detection of tassels and panicles. The orthophoto generation strategies are valid for both frame and push-broom imaging systems. The target function of these strategies is striking a balance between the improved visual appearance of tassels/panicles and their geolocation accuracy. The new strategies are based on generating a smooth digital surface model (DSM) that maintains the geolocation quality along the plant rows while reducing double mapping and pixilation artifacts. Moreover, seamline control strategies are applied to avoid having seamline distortions at locations where the tassels and panicles are expected. The quality of generated orthophotos is evaluated through visual inspection as well as quantitative assessment of the degree of similarity between the generated orthophotos and original images. Several experimental results from both UAV and ground platforms show that the proposed strategies do improve the visual quality of derived orthophotos while maintaining the geolocation accuracy at tassel/panicle locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Argon Geochronology Experiment (AGE)

This viewgraph presentation reviews the Argon Geochronology Experiment (AGE). Potassium-Argon dating is shown along with cosmic ray dating exposure. The contents include a flow diagram of the Argon Geochronology Experiment, and schematic diagrams of the mass spectrometer vacuum system, sample manipulation mechanism, mineral heater oven, and the quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer. The Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) Operation with elemental abundances is also described.

age dating↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Materials Design Directions for Solar Thermochemical Water Splitting

The sustainable, economical production of molecular hydrogen is a crucial component of a net zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions future. Solar thermochemical water splitting (STWS) offers a renewable route to hydrogen with the potential to help decarbonize several industries, including transportation, manufacturing, mining, metals processing, and electricity generation, as well as provide sustainable hydrogen as a chemical feedstock. STWS uses high temperatures generated from concentrated sunlight or other sustainable means for high-temperature heat to produce hydrogen and oxygen from steam. For example, in its simplest form of a two-step thermochemical cycle, a redox-active metal oxide is heated to ≈1700-2000 K, driving off molecular oxygen while producing oxygen vacancies in the material. The reduced metal oxide then cools (ideally with the extracted heat recuperated for re-use) and, in a separate step, comes into contact with steam, which reacts with oxygen vacancies to produce molecular hydrogen while recovering the original state of the metal oxide. Despite its promising use of the entire solar spectrum to split water thermochemically, the current estimated cost of hydrogen produced via STWS is ≈4-6× the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Shot target value of $1/kg. One contributing approach to bridging this cost gap is the design of new materials with improved thermodynamic properties to enable higher efficiencies. The state-of-the-art (SOA) redox-active metal oxide for STWS is ceria (CeO 2 ), due to its close to optimal, although too high, oxygen vacancy formation enthalpy and large configurational and electronic entropy of reduction. However, ceria requires high operating temperatures and its efficiency is insufficient. Therefore, efforts to increase the efficiency of STWS cycles have focused on further optimizing oxygen vacancy formation enthalpies and augmenting the reduction entropy via substitution or doping and materials discovery schemes. Examples of the latter include the perovskites BaCe 0.25 Mn 0.75 O 3 and (Ca,Ce)(Ti,Mn)O 3 . These efforts and others have revealed intuitive chemical principles for the efficient and systematic design of more effective materials, such as the strong correlation between the enthalpies of crystal bond dissociation and solid-state cation reduction with the enthalpy of oxygen vacancy formation, as well as configurational entropy augmentation via the coexistence of two or more redox-active cation sublattices. The purpose of this chapter is to prepare the reader with an up-to-date account of STWS redox-active materials, both the SOA and promising newcomers, as well as to provide chemically intuitive strategies for improving their cycle efficiencies through materials design – in conjunction with ongoing efforts in reactor engineering and gas separations – to reach the cost points for commercial viability. First, we will introduce the thermodynamics of STWS using a two-step, metal-oxide, thermochemical cycle with economics in mind. We also will compare the pros and cons of processes that do or do not involve phase changes. Second, we will describe the qualities that make ceria the SOA STWS redox-active material, as well as its limitations. Third, we will survey some of the most promising candidates to date in the search for materials to supplant ceria, emphasizing the post-ternary, metal-oxide-perovskite alloys. Lastly, we will enumerate and discuss the following materials design directions for STWS redox-active materials: crystal reduction potentials as a proxy for oxygen vacancy formation enthalpies, engineering the electronic and configurational entropy of reduction via f-shells and simultaneous redox, and vetting materials stability via temperature-dependent phase diagrams and melting-point prediction.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Risk and incidence of head and neck cancers in veterans living with HIV and matched HIV‐negative veterans

Background Persons living with HIV/AIDS have a higher incidence of virus‐related and tobacco/alcohol‐related cancers. This study is the first to estimate the effect of HIV versus HIV‐negative veterans on the risk of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma incidence in a large retrospective cohort study. Methods The authors constructed a retrospective cohort study using patient data from 1999 to 2016 from the National Veterans Administration Corporate Data Warehouse and the VA Central Cancer Registry. This cohort study included 45,052 veterans living with HIV/AIDS and 162,486 HIV‐negative patients matched by age, sex, and index visit (i.e., HIV diagnosis date or clinic visit date). The age‐standardized incidence rates and estimated adjusted hazard ratios were calculated with a Cox proportional hazards regression for oropharyngeal and nonoropharyngeal head and neck cancer squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). The authors also abstracted human papillomavirus (HPV) status from oropharyngeal HNSCC diagnosed after 2010. Results Veterans living with HIV/AIDS (VLWH) have 1.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36, 2.14) times the risk of oropharyngeal cancer and 2.06 (95% CI, 1.76, 2.42) times the hazard of nonoropharyngeal cancer compared with HIV‐negative veterans. VLWH with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) were more likely to be HPV‐positive ( N = 30 [81.1%]) than the HIV‐negative veterans with OPSCC ( N = 50 [67.6%]), although this difference was not significant ( p = .135). For nonoropharyngeal cancer, the increased risk of oral cavity cancer among VLWH drove the increased risk. Conclusions The study results suggest that HIV may play a role in virally mediated and nonvirally mediated HNSCC. As the HIV prevalence rises in the United States due to better survival and the incidence of HPV‐positive oropharyngeal HNSCC increases, the interaction between HPV and HIV becomes increasingly relevant.

Mazul, Angela L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong parallel evidence of selection during switchgrass sward establishment in hybrid and lowland ecotypes

Switchgrass sward establishment results in up to 90% seedling mortality. The degree of selection during sward establishment has not been reported using modern genetic methods. Pooled leaf samples were sequenced from replicated swards of 46 half-sib families from two breeding groups (lowland and hybrid) before and through 3 years of stand establishment. Pooled allele frequencies were then assessed using fixation indices (Fst) and an independent data set was used to predict the polygenic impact of establishment selection on two traits (heading date and winter survivorship). Last, the DNA pools were assigned survival rankings to predict the sward survival genomically estimated breeding values within the training data set. Strong and parallel selection occured in both breeding groups. Five genomic regions exceeded the significant threshold of 99.9% in >10 families, indicating consistent selection across families and breeding groups. Polygenic trait predictions determined that establishment selection was partially associated with winter survivorship but resulted in variable heading date alterations. The genomewide variation is consistent with selection for a small number of related parental lines. This study observed strong selection for a small number of hybrid and coastal ecotype individuals which are promising germplasm sources for improved sward survival. This confirms prior reports of sward selection during grassland establishment and highlights the strength of pooled DNA sequencing for survival traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Switchgrass sward establishment selection is consistent across multiple environments and fertilization levels

Strong selection can occur during switchgrass sward establishment. Differences in establishment selection due to environment or management could provide information on genotype-by-environment variation and could influence strategies for breeding perennial grasses. Leaf samples were collected before sward establishment and from 3-year-old swards for two breeding groups (lowland and hybrid) at three locations. Within two locations, samples were collected from paired fertilized (112 kg N ha –1 ) and unfertilized plots. Allele frequencies from pooled DNA samples were studied through multivariate analysis of variance, genomewide trait predictions (heading date and winter survivorship), and genomically estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for individual sward survival within an independent data set. This study found only minor variations in selection due to location or management. Predicted heading dates of the hybrid population had significant changes due to fertilization and location. There were strong correlations among sward establishment survival GEBVs between growing environments (hybrid r = 0.77; gulf r = 0.97). Interestingly, this study found a small number of genotypes that were over-represented in established swards across all growing environments. This study reinforces a prior report of selection during sward establishment and indicates that only a small degree of establishment selection is location-specific within these diverse growing conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary history, potential intermediate animal host, and cross-species analyses of SARS-CoV-2

To investigate the evolutionary history of the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China, a total of 70 genomes of virus strains from China and elsewhere with sampling dates between 24 December 2019 and 3 February 2020 were analyzed. To explore the potential intermediate animal host of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we reanalyzed virome data sets from pangolins and representative SARS-related coronaviruses isolates from bats, with particular attention paid to the spike glycoprotein gene. We performed phylogenetic, split network, transmission network, likelihood-mapping, and comparative analyses of the genomes. Additionally, based on Bayesian time-scaled phylogenetic analysis using the tip-dating method, we estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor and evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2, which ranged from 22 to 24 November 2019 and 1.19 to 1.31 × 10 -3 substitutions per site per year, respectively. Our results also revealed that the BetaCoV/bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013 virus was more similar to the SARS-CoV-2 virus than the coronavirus obtained from the two pangolin samples (SRR10168377 and SRR10168378). We also identified a unique peptide (PRRA) insertion in the human SARS-CoV-2 virus, which may be involved in the proteolytic cleavage of the spike protein by cellular proteases, and thus could impact host range and transmissibility. Interestingly, the coronavirus carried by pangolins did not have the RRAR motif. Therefore, we concluded that the human SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is responsible for the recent outbreak of COVID-19, did not come directly from pangolins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The use and abuse of cinnabar in Late Neolithic and Copper Age Iberia

Abstract In this study, total mercury (THg) was analyzed in archaeological human bone from 23 sites dating to between the Middle Neolithic and the Antiquity. A total of 370 individuals from individual or collective burials was sampled, mostly using cortical bone from the humerus. These individuals were recovered from over 50 different funerary structures ranging from tholoi, pits, caves, and hypogea. Although cinnabar (HgS) is a likely cause of mercury poisoning and toxicity for people exposed to this mineral from mining or use as a paint or pigment, not all sites investigated here had cinnabar associated with the burials or other excavated areas. We found unusual levels of THg in many of the sampled individuals that we assume were caused by exposure to cinnabar in life, and not by diagenetic processes or other exposures to mercury such as through diet, which would only cause negligible accumulation of THg in bone. Our data, based on the largest sampling ever undertaken on contamination of human bone through archaeological evidence, provide a baseline for additional research on cinnabar and its use in Prehistory. Moderate to high levels of THg in human bone are mainly associated with societies dating from the second half of the 4th to late 3rd millennia B.C. (Late Neolithic to Middle Chalcolithic) in southern Iberia. By the Late Chalcolithic and Early Bronze Age, the use of cinnabar decreased significantly and became minimal or absent. The use and abuse of cinnabar appears to have been pervasive throughout the above‐mentioned period and particularly between c. 2900–2300 B.C. This occurred in connection with the high symbolic and probably sacred value of the substance, which was sought after, traded, and extensively used in a variety of rituals and social practices.

Emslie, Steven D.↗