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DOE OSTI2025

Carbon cycling across ecosystem succession in a north temperate forest: Controls and management implications

Despite decades of progress, much remains unknown about successional trajectories of carbon (C) cycling in north temperate forests. Drivers and mechanisms of these changes, including the role of different types of disturbances, are particularly elusive. To address this gap, we synthesized decades of data from experimental chronosequences and long-term monitoring at a well-studied, regionally representative field site in northern Michigan, USA. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of changes in above- and belowground ecosystem components over two centuries of succession, links temporal dynamics in C pools and fluxes with underlying drivers, and offers several conceptual insights to the field of forest ecology. Our first advance shows how temporal dynamics in some ecosystem components are consistent across severe disturbances that reset succession and partial disturbances that slightly modify it: both of these disturbance types increase soil N availability, alter fungal community composition, and alter growth and competitive interactions between short-lived pioneer and longer-lived tree taxa. Further, these changes in turn affect soil C stocks, respiratory emissions, and other belowground processes. Second, we show that some other ecosystem components have effects on C cycling that are not consistent over the course of succession. For example, canopy structure does not influence C uptake early in succession but becomes important as stands develop, and the importance of individual structural properties changes over the course of two centuries of stand development. Third, we show that in recent decades, climate change is masking or overriding the influence of community composition on C uptake, while respiratory emissions are sensitive to both climatic and compositional change. In synthesis, we emphasize that time is not a driver of C cycling; it is a dimension within which ecosystem drivers such as canopy structure, tree and microbial community composition change. Changes in those drivers, not in forest age, are what control forest C trajectories, and those changes can happen quickly or slowly, through natural processes or deliberate intervention. Stemming from this view and a whole-ecosystem perspective on forest succession, we offer management applications from this work and assess its broader relevance to understanding long-term change in other north temperate forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Importance of kernel bandwidth in quantum machine learning

Quantum kernel methods are considered a promising avenue for applying quantum computers to machine learning problems. Identifying hyperparameters controlling the inductive bias of quantum machine learning models is expected to be crucial given the central role hyperparameters play in determining the performance of classical machine learning methods. In this work we introduce the hyperparameter controlling the bandwidth of a quantum kernel and show that it controls the expressivity of the resulting model. We use extensive numerical experiments with multiple quantum kernels and classical data sets to show consistent change in the model behavior from underfitting (bandwidth too large) to overfitting (bandwidth too small), with optimal generalization in between. We draw a connection between the bandwidth of classical and quantum kernels and show analogous behavior in both cases. Furthermore, we show that optimizing the bandwidth can help mitigate the exponential decay of kernel values with qubit count, which is the cause behind recent observations that the performance of quantum kernel methods decreases with qubit count. Here, we reproduce these negative results and show that if the kernel bandwidth is optimized, the performance instead improves with growing qubit count and becomes competitive with the best classical methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic design of a linear Fresnel reflector for industrial process heat

A techno-economic model of a Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) system using a Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR) has been developed. LFRs can deliver process heat suitable for a range of industries, including food and beverage production. This model uses an adaptive algorithm to calculate the optimal secondary reflector shape given the geometry and optical properties of the rest of the system. A ray-tracing program is used to calculate optical efficiency over a wide range of longitudinal and transversal incidence angles and subsequently evaluate the annual efficiency at a given geographical location. A specific LFR design developed by Hyperlight Energy was modelled, and this industrial partner provided a detailed cost breakdown which was used as the basis of an economic model. Combining the technical and economic data facilitates the calculation of the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH). The influence of a number of parameters on the annual efficiency and LCOH is explored; notable parameters include the absorber height, the number, width, and spacing of the primary mirrors, the aim point, and the secondary reflector shape and width. By identifying an optimal combination of these parameters, we reduce the LCOH of the industry partner’s system design by 9.2%, from 14.4 $\$/MWh_{th}$ to 13.0 $\$/MWh_{th}$. In comparison, the LCOH of a natural gas boiler delivering the same annual quantity of heat is 29 $\$/MWh_{th}$, which indicates that LFRs can be a competitive heat source for industrial processes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pumped Storage Hydropower FAST Commissioning Technical Analysis

This report is designed to address barriers and solutions to modern pumped storage hydropower (PSH) development by establishing baseline project development knowledge, defining key aspects of project development, and identifying opportunities to reduce project timelines, costs, and risks. This report’s scope includes post-licensing activities and excludes factors related to permitting or licensing. The U.S. PSH fleet is composed of 43 projects providing the majority (95%) of utility-scale electricity storage in the US. However, only one new PSH facility has become operational in the past 20 years. Several factors contribute to diminishing PSH growth in the US, including the magnitude of project costs and financing interest during development and construction; the length of time from project investment until project revenue; permitting challenges and construction risks; competition from other storage technologies; and unrecognized energy storage valuation. Although innovative PSH concepts (including underground, small, and modular systems) have been investigated, widespread application has yet to occur. In short, the time, cost, and risk associated with modern PSH development has resulted in limited recent growth in the United States, despite the rising energy storage demand from increased deployment of variable renewable technologies. To address these challenges, the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office initiated the PSH Furthering Advancements to Shorten Time to (FAST) Commissioning project, aimed at catalyzing new solutions, designs, and strategies to accelerate PSH development. This report uses available data from previous license applications, ongoing project cost data, and other global PSH project information based on a typical closed-loop PSH project.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Levelized cost of charging of extreme fast charging with stationary LMO/LTO batteries

Extreme DC fast charging for electric vehicles (EVs) could be competitive with the internal combustion engine refueling experience and enable longer-distance travel, which could help with EV adoption and decarbonization, but these systems have high capital costs and extremely variable high-power demands. Behind-the-meter systems (BTMS) could support extreme-fast-charging (XFC) stations to increase nationwide adoption of EVs. Here, this study examines the optimal break-even levelized cost of charging (LCOC) across 96 BTMS scenarios to enable low-wait XFC stations providing 200 miles of charge in 10 min. This research simulates LCOC via synthetic XFC-capable EV loads, machine-learned battery life models from testing data, and nonlinear optimal controls, co-minimizing complex utility costs and battery replacements. An aggregate optimal BTMS design treating each EV load as equal likely gives an optimal LCOC per utility rate, the average of which is $\$$0.59/kWh. In addition, the sensitivity of optimal and off-optimal design factors, the long-life LMO/LTO chemistry, and optimized controls are analyzed. The battery control model, based on battery stressors to compare chemistries, optimizes LMO/LTO resting state of charge and cycle depth without compromising cost reduction, which enables greater flexibility in operation. The LCOC savings due to replacement reduction are small, up to $\$$0.035/kWh (6%), with an average of $\$$0.02/kWh (3.5%). Compared with gasoline stations, the aggregate XFC station design achieves comparable speed, experience of service, and cost at $\$$3.81/gal gasoline, showing that EVs can replace gasoline vehicles even for longer-distance travel.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bifacial Photovoltaic Modules and Systems: Experience and Results from International Research and Pilot Applications

Within the framework of IEA PVPS, Task 13 aims to provide support to market actors working to improve the operation, the reliability and the quality of PV components and systems. Operational data from PV systems in different climate zones compiled within the project will help provide the basis for estimates of the current situation regarding PV reliability and performance. The general setting of Task 13 provides a common platform to summarize and report on technical aspects affecting the quality, performance, reliability and lifetime of PV systems in a wide variety of environments and applications. By working together across national boundaries we can all take advantage of research and experience from each member country and combine and integrate this knowledge into valuable summaries of best practices and methods for ensuring PV systems perform at their optimum and continue to provide competitive return on investment. Task 13 has so far managed to create the right framework for the calculations of various parameters that can give an indication of the quality of PV components and systems. The framework is now there and can be used by the industry who has expressed appreciation towards the results included in the high-quality reports. The IEA PVPS countries participating in Task 13 are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United States of America.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Designing New Materials for Photovoltaics: Opportunities for Lowering Cost and Increasing Performance through Advanced Material Innovations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Floating photovoltaic power plants: A review of energy yield, reliability, and operation and maintenance

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are essential for the transition to sustainable energy, reducing fossil fuel dependence and mitigating climate change. Although PV requires minimal land area — PV can meet the European Union's energy needs using only 0.26% of its land — space for deployment is often scarce in densely populated regions. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) offer an effective solution to land-use challenges by installing PV systems on floating structures in water bodies. FPV is a growing niche within PV with a cumulative installed capacity reaching 7.7 GW globally by 2023. Almost 90% of the installed FPV capacity is in Asia, with close to 50% of in China alone, while the Netherlands and France are the largest markets outside Asia. FPV shows strong potential to support climate targets, but still faces challenges like regulatory barriers, cost competitiveness compared to ground-based PV (GPV), and uncertainties about environmental impacts and system reliability. FPV systems are currently installed mainly on sheltered inland waters, such as quarry lakes, irrigation ponds and reservoirs. FPV technical standards are still being developed. Guidelines have been published by the World Bank, DNV, and Solar Power Europe, and emerging national standards from South Korea, China, and Singapore address design, components, and safety. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) is working on formal standards for floats, mooring systems, and electrical connectors. However, the published best practices lack quantitative guidance for yield modelling and reliability, which this report aims to address. It provides data-driven insights, models, and parameters essential for accurate energy yield, reliability, and maintenance predictions over FPV systems' lifetimes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum discriminator for binary classification

Abstract Quantum computers have the unique ability to operate relatively quickly in high-dimensional spaces—this is sought to give them a competitive advantage over classical computers. In this work, we propose a novel quantum machine learning model called the Quantum Discriminator, which leverages the ability of quantum computers to operate in the high-dimensional spaces. The quantum discriminator is trained using a quantum-classical hybrid algorithm in $$\mathcal {O}(N\log N)$$ O ( N log N ) time, and inferencing is performed on a universal quantum computer in $$\mathcal {O}(N)$$ O ( N ) time. The quantum discriminator takes as input the binary features extracted from a given datum along with a prediction qubit, and outputs the predicted label. We analyze its performance on the Iris and Bars and Stripes data sets, and show that it can attain 99% accuracy in simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spike-and-Slab Shrinkage Priors for Structurally Sparse Bayesian Neural Networks

Network complexity and computational efficiency have become increasingly significant aspects of deep learning. Sparse deep learning addresses these challenges by recovering a sparse representation of the underlying target function by reducing heavily overparameterized deep neural networks. Specifically, deep neural architectures compressed via structured sparsity (e.g., node sparsity) provide low-latency inference, higher data throughput, and reduced energy consumption. In this article, we explore two well-established shrinkage techniques, Lasso and Horseshoe, for model compression in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To this end, we propose structurally sparse BNNs, which systematically prune excessive nodes with the following: 1) spike-and-slab group Lasso (SS-GL) and 2) SS group Horseshoe (SS-GHS) priors, and develop computationally tractable variational inference, including continuous relaxation of Bernoulli variables. We establish the contraction rates of the variational posterior of our proposed models as a function of the network topology, layerwise node cardinalities, and bounds on the network weights. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our models compared with the baseline models in prediction accuracy, model compression, and inference latency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization

Operation and maintenance costs for nuclear power plants are very large. Reactors are starting to shut down even after their operating licenses have been extended, because they are not price competitive compared to other energy sources. The nuclear industry is witnessing early closure of nuclear power plants due to economic reasons despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs to prevent these early closures. This paper showcases recent research into advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization to reduce these maintenance costs. This report focuses on the condensate and feedwater system for both pressurized and boiling water reactor systems. The computerized maintenance management system, which contains the plant’s digital record of all the corrective- and preventative-maintenance work orders, was used as a ground truth to locate potential faults and label the process data as healthy or faulty. Various feature extraction techniques were utilized to further differentiate the faults from the healthy data. Support vectors machines were used to categorize other test sets of process data as healthy or faulty through a cross validation procedure. Similar faults were not found within this system leading to preventative maintenance optimization. Unnecessary amounts of preventative maintenance lead to inflated maintenance costs. This paper summarizes the steps for preventative maintenance optimization from component health determination to recommendation for action. This optimization was completed for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scalable Deep-Learning-Accelerated Topology Optimization for Additively Manufactured Materials

Topology optimization (TO) is a popular and powerful computational approach for designing novel structures, materials, and devices. Two computational challenges have limited the applicability of TO to a variety of industrial applications. First, a TO problem often involves a large number of design variables to guarantee sufficient expressive power. Second, many TO problems require a large number of expensive physical model simulations, and those simulations cannot be parallelized. To address these issues, we propose a general scalable deep-learning (DL) based TO framework, referred to as SDL-TO, which utilizes parallel schemes in high performance computing (HPC) to accelerate the TO process for designing additively manufactured (AM) materials. Unlike the existing studies of DL for TO, our framework accelerates TO by learning the iterative history data and simultaneously training on the mapping between the given design and its gradient. The surrogate gradient is learned by utilizing parallel computing on multiple CPUs incorporated with a distributed DL training on multiple GPUs. The learned TO gradient enables a fast online update scheme instead of an expensive update based on the physical simulator or solver. Using a local sampling strategy, we achieve to reduce the intrinsic high dimensionality of the design space and improve the training accuracy and the scalability of the SDL-TO framework. The method is demonstrated by benchmark examples and AM materials design for heat conduction. The proposed SDL-TO framework shows competitive performance compared to the baseline methods but significantly reduces the computational cost by a speed up of around 8.6x over the standard TO implementation.

Bi, Sirui↗

DOE OSTI2024

Energy Efficiency Field Study: Influence of Key Measures in Home Rules States

The goal of the Energy Efficiency Field Study: Influence of Key Measures in Home Rule States project is to empower and support the states of Utah and Arizona in the successful implementation of their building energy codes. Employing the Department of Energy (DOE) Residential Building Energy Code Field Study Data Collection & Methodology, the research team evaluated real-world implementation status against a baseline, with a particular focus on the unique challenges presented by the dry, hot climates of Utah and Arizona.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of alloying on intrinsic ductility in WTaCrV high entropy alloys

Tungsten (W) exhibits desirable properties for extreme applications, such as the divertor in magnetic fusion reactors, but its practicality remains limited due to poor formability and insufficient irradiation resistance. In this work, we study the intrinsic ductility of body-centered cubic WTaCrV based high entropy alloys (HEAs), which are known to exhibit excellent irradiation resistance. The ductility evaluations are carried out using a criterion based on the competition between the critical stress intensity factors for emission (K Ie ) and cleavage (K Ic ) in the {110} slip planes and {110} crack planes, which are evaluated within the linear elastic fracture mechanics framework and computed using density functional theory. The results suggest that increasing the alloying concentrations of V and reducing the concentrations of W can significantly improve the ductility in these HEAs. The elastic anisotropy for these HEAs is analyzed using the Zener anisotropy ratio and its correlation with the concentration of W in the alloys is studied. Results indicate that these alloys tend to be fairly isotropic independently from the concentration of W in them. The computed data for the elastic constants of these HEAs is also compared against available experimental data. The results are in good agreement, validating the robustness and accuracy of the computational methods. Multiple phenomenological ductility metrics were also computed and analyzed against the analytical model. Some metrics, mainly the surrogate D parameter, show a good correlation with the Rice model. The potential of these empirical metrics to serve as surrogate screening models for optimizing the compositional space is also discussed.

Anisotropy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Final Targeting Strategy for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 North Survey

The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is a dual-hemisphere, near-infrared (NIR), spectroscopic survey with the goal of producing a chemodynamical mapping of the Milky Way. The targeting for APOGEE-2 is complex and has evolved with time. In this paper, we present the updates and additions to the initial targeting strategy for APOGEE-2N presented in Zasowski et al. (2017). These modifications come in two implementation modes: (i) “Ancillary Science Programs” competitively awarded to Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV PIs through proposal calls in 2015 and 2017 for the pursuit of new scientific avenues outside the main survey, and (ii) an effective 1.5 yr expansion of the survey, known as the Bright Time Extension (BTX), made possible through accrued efficiency gains over the first years of the APOGEE-2N project. For the 23 distinct ancillary programs, we provide descriptions of the scientific aims, target selection, and how to identify these targets within the APOGEE-2 sample. The BTX permitted changes to the main survey strategy, the inclusion of new programs in response to scientific discoveries or to exploit major new data sets not available at the outset of the survey design, and expansions of existing programs to enhance their scientific success and reach. After describing the motivations, implementation, and assessment of these programs, we also leave a summary of lessons learned from nearly a decade of APOGEE-1 and APOGEE-2 survey operations. Finally, a companion paper, F. Santana et al. (submitted; AAS29036), provides a complementary presentation of targeting modifications relevant to APOGEE-2 operations in the Southern Hemisphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metrics for Intercomparison of Remapping Algorithms (MIRA) protocol applied to Earth system models

Abstract. Strongly coupled nonlinear phenomena such as those described by Earth system models (ESMs) are composed of multiple component models with independent mesh topologies and scalable numerical solvers. A common operation in ESMs is to remap or interpolate component solution fields defined on their computational mesh to another mesh with a different combinatorial structure and decomposition, e.g., from the atmosphere to the ocean, during the temporal integration of the coupled system. Several remapping schemes are currently in use or available for ESMs. However, a unified approach to compare the properties of these different schemes has not been attempted previously. We present a rigorous methodology for the evaluation and intercomparison of remapping methods through an independently implemented suite of metrics that measure the ability of a method to adhere to constraints such as grid independence, monotonicity, global conservation, and local extrema or feature preservation. A comprehensive set of numerical evaluations is conducted based on a progression of scalar fields from idealized and smooth to more general climate data with strong discontinuities and strict bounds. We examine four remapping algorithms with distinct design approaches, namely ESMF Regrid (Hill et al., 2004), TempestRemap (Ullrich and Taylor, 2015), generalized moving least squares (GMLS) (Trask and Kuberry, 2020) with post-processing filters, and WLS-ENOR (Li et al., 2020). By repeated iterative application of the high-order remapping methods to the test fields, we verify the accuracy of each scheme in terms of their observed convergence order for smooth data and determine the bounded error propagation using challenging, realistic field data on both uniform and regionally refined mesh cases. In addition to retaining high-order accuracy under idealized conditions, the methods also demonstrate robust remapping performance when dealing with non-smooth data. There is a failure to maintain monotonicity in the traditional L2-minimization approaches used in ESMF and TempestRemap, in contrast to stable recovery through nonlinear filters used in both meshless GMLS and hybrid mesh-based WLS-ENOR schemes. Local feature preservation analysis indicates that high-order methods perform better than low-order dissipative schemes for all test cases. The behavior of these remappers remains consistent when applied on regionally refined meshes, indicating mesh-invariant implementations. The MIRA intercomparison protocol proposed in this paper and the detailed comparison of the four algorithms demonstrate that the new schemes, namely GMLS and WLS-ENOR, are competitive compared to standard conservative minimization methods requiring computation of mesh intersections. The work presented in this paper provides a foundation that can be extended to include complex field definitions, realistic mesh topologies, and spectral element discretizations, thereby allowing for a more complete analysis of production-ready remapping packages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Elucidating a dissolution–deposition reaction mechanism by multimodal synchrotron X-ray characterization in aqueous Zn/MnO 2 batteries

Aqueous Zn/MnO 2 batteries with their environmental sustainability and competitive cost, are becoming a promising, safe alternative for grid-scale electrochemical energy storage. Here, presented as a promising design principle to deliver a higher theoretical capacity, this work offers fundamental understanding of the dissolution–deposition mechanism of Zn/β-MnO 2 . A multimodal synchrotron characterization approach including three operando X-ray techniques (powder diffraction, absorption spectroscopy, and fluorescence microscopy) is coupled with elementally resolved synchrotron X-ray nano-tomography. Together they provide a direct correlation between structural evolution, reaction chemistry, and 3D morphological changes. Operando synchrotron X-ray diffraction and spectroscopy show a crystalline-to-amorphous phase transition. Quantitative modeling of the operando data by Rietveld refinement for X-ray diffraction and multivariate curve resolution (MCR) for X-ray absorption spectroscopy are used in a complementary fashion to track the structural and chemical transitions of both the long-range (crystalline phases) and short-range (including amorphous phases) ordering upon cycling. Scanning X-ray microscopy and full-field nano-tomography visualizes the morphology of electrodes at different electrochemical states with elemental sensitivity to spatially resolve the formation of the Zn- and Mn-containing phases. Overall, this work critically indicates that for Zn/MnO 2 aqueous batteries, the reaction pathways involving Zn–Mn complex formation upon cycling become independent of the polymorphs of the initial electrode and sheds light on the interplay among structural, chemical, and morphological evolution for electrochemically driven phase transitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗