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At least 505 records · Page 28

The characteristics of atmospheric boundary layer height over the Arctic Ocean during MOSAiC

The important roles that the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) plays in the central Arctic climate system have been recognized, but the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH), defined as the layer of continuous turbulence adjacent to the surface, has rarely been investigated. Using a year-round radiosonde dataset during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, we improve a Richardson-number-based algorithm that takes cloud effects into consideration and subsequently analyze the characteristics and variability of the ABLH over the Arctic Ocean. The results reveal that the annual cycle is clearly characterized by a distinct peak in May and two respective minima in January and July. This annual variation in the ABLH is primarily controlled by the evolution of the ABL thermal structure. Temperature inversions in the winter and summer are intensified by seasonal radiative cooling and warm-air advection with the surface temperature constrained by melting, respectively, leading to the low ABLH at these times. Meteorological and turbulence variables also play a significant role in ABLH variation, including the near-surface potential temperature gradient, friction velocity, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate. In addition, the MOSAiC ABLH is more suppressed than the ABLH during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment in the summer, which indicates that there is large variability in the Arctic ABL structure during the summer melting season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tackling the Giants: Applying Smart Labs Principles to Constant Air Volume Lab Buildings

Laboratories typically consume 3 to 10 times more energy than similarly sized commercial buildings, and as much as 50% of that energy is wasted by inefficient and poorly operating fume hoods and ventilation systems. One challenge faced by older laboratory buildings is the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems serving many of these buildings. The older systems are usually constant air volume (CAV) systems that maintain constant ventilation rates that cause excess airflow and inefficient energy use. Variable air volume systems can be more efficient systems with sensors to detect the need for a change in volumetric flow rate; however; renovation of ventilation systems can create disruption to ongoing research and operations along with considerable up-front costs. When a Smart Labs program is implemented, an organization has a systems-based management approach that yields a high-performing laboratory building. As decarbonization continues as a priority for sites, buildings with CAV systems are difficult to address. This work centers around practical guidance for improving lab buildings with CAV. In conjunction with industry input on top technology solutions and best practices, recommendations will include performing a laboratory ventilation risk assessment in conjunction with robust retro-commissioning work, which is a crucial step in the Smart Lab process. By applying Smart Labs principles, the aging laboratory building stock of 153,343 (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [LBNL] 2017), comprising roughly 500,000 lab spaces in the United States, can be brought to safe and high-performance operations.

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Harvest Initiated Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from In-Field Tall Wheatgrass

While crop and grassland usage continues to increase, the full diversity of plant-specific volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from these ecosystems, including their implications for atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycling, remains poorly understood. It is particularly important to investigate VOCs in the context of potential biofuels: aside from the implications of largescale land use, harvest may shift both the flux and speciation of emitted VOCs. To this point, we evaluate the diversity of VOCs emitted both pre and postharvest from “Alkar” tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum), a candidate biofuel that exhibits greater tolerance to frost and saline land compared to other grass varieties. Mature plants grown under field conditions (n = 6) were sampled for VOCs both pre- and postharvest (October 2022). Via hierarchical clustering of emitted VOCs from each plant, we observe distinct “volatilomes” (diversity of VOCs) specific to the pre- and postharvest conditions despite plant-to-plant variability. In total, 50 VOCs were found to be unique to the postharvest tall wheatgrass volatilome, and these unique VOCs constituted a significant portion (26%) of total postharvest signal. While green leaf volatiles (GLVs) dominate the speciation of postharvest emissions (e.g., 54% of unique postharvest VOC signal was due to 1-penten-3-ol), we demonstrate novel postharvest VOCs from tall wheatgrass that are under characterized in the context of carbon cycling and atmospheric chemistry (e.g., 3-octanone). Continuing evaluations will quantitatively investigate tall wheatgrass VOC fluxes, better informing the feasibility and environmental impact of tall wheatgrass as a biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Convergence of sum-up rounding schemes for cloaking problems governed by the Helmholtz equation

In this work, we consider the problem of designing a cloak for waves described by the Helmholtz equation from an integer programming point of view. The problem can be modeled as a PDE-constrained optimization problem with integer-valued control inputs that are distributed in the computational domain. A first-discretize-then-optimize approach results in a large-scale mixed-integer nonlinear program that is in general intractable because of the large number of integer variables that arise from the discretization of the domain. Instead, we propose an efficient algorithm that is able to approximate the local infima of the underlying nonconvex infinite-dimensional problem arbitrarily close without the need to solve the discretized finite-dimensional integer programs to optimality. We optimize only the continuous relaxations of the approximations for local minima and then apply the sum-up rounding methodology to obtain integer-valued controls. If the solutions of the discretized continuous relaxations converge to a local minimizer of the continuous relaxation, then the resulting discrete-valued control sequence converges weakly \(^*\) in \(L^\infty\) to the same local minimizer. These approximation properties follow under suitable refinements of the involved discretization grids. Our results use familiar concepts arising from the analytical properties of the underlying PDE and complement previous results, derived from a topology optimization point of view.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the operational characteristics and economic value of pumped thermal energy storage

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems use an electrically-driven heat pump to store electricity in the form of thermal energy, and subsequently dispatch the stored thermal energy to generate electricity using a thermodynamic heat engine. Optimal day-ahead operational scheduling and annual value of a PTES system based on Joule-Brayton thermodynamic cycles and two-tank molten salt hot thermal storage is evaluated in this work. Production cost models, which simultaneously optimize commitment and dispatch schedules for an entire set of generators to minimize the cost of satisfying electricity demand, are employed to determine system-optimal operation and day-ahead energy value of the PTES system within each of six hypothetical near-future grid scenarios intended to approximately represent the U.S. Western Interconnection or the Texas Interconnection. Sensitivity to grid scenario (including the contribution of variable renewable energy sources), thermal storage capacity, relative heat pump and heat engine capacities, and startup/shutdown cycling costs are evaluated. PTES energy value and heat engine annual capacity factor increase strongly as the contribution of variable renewable resources increases, heat pump capacity increases relative to heat engine capacity, or PTES cycling costs decrease. Grid scenarios in which the contribution of variable renewable energy is dominated by solar photovoltaics (PV) vs. wind produce inherently different PTES operational patterns. Annual PTES energy value within PV-dominated scenarios increased with storage capacity only up to approximately seven hours of full-load discharge capacity, whereas that within wind-dominated scenarios exhibited a continual increase with storage duration up to at least 16 hours.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: An Initial Analysis of the Data

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a county level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes, combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format, meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. Further, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. As a result, the team collected more than 11 million data points. Following the close of this data collection effort on June 30 th , 2020, the team embarked on a major effort to appraise what had been collected, including an inventory list, spatial completeness, temporal completeness, scale and geographic characteristics, and a determination. A report on this matter was submitted on September 15 th , 2020, titled “DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Data Collection Coverage”. Over 2000 unique attributes had been netted over a wide range of spatial scales, including state, county, zip codes, health regions, and census blocks. Over 11 million individual data points were collected across these attributes, and spatial coverage (in total) included all 50 states and multiple territories. What became apparent in the process is that in the absence of any data standards, many states reported a wide variety of unique attributes that were not always compatible with attributes reported in other states. As time continued, states began adding new attributes and offering finer grain detail in some older attributes. This meant that not all data streams existed for the entire time period; in fact, the number tended to increase dramatically towards the end. Often, states would begin an attribute series and then stop altogether. These highly variable and uncertain conditions illuminated the need for harmonization approaches that would reconcile and conflate changing attribute names and detail over time. For example, grouping racial data reported as either Black or African American, depending on the state, into a single harmonized attribute. These choices would make a within-state analysis possible during the time period and lead to potential between-state analytics later on. This was almost entirely a manual decision process, requiring some subjective decision-making at times, to prevent a fragmented, short-lived collection of time series fragments that would offer few insights into trends, patterns, and correlates. This report imports harmonized data for state and county into the World Spatio-Temporal Analytics and Mapping Project (WSTAMP). WSTAMP is a major space-time analysis and visualization tool developed at ORNL for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency specifically for this kind of exploratory analysis. WSTAMP offers a rich analytical and graphical environment consisting of a wide range of analytics. These include time series plots, statistical summaries, data mining techniques, trend and pattern detection, and hypothesis generation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS): Task 4.0 Deliverable – Geologic Analysis Report

Project OASIS (Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County) is a geologic and reservoir characterization study designed to evaluate deep saline formations for potential long-term carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in central Alabama near the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) and Alabama Power’s Plant Gaston. The project centers on the Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group and underlying strata such as the Conasauga and Rome Formations, which were investigated through the drilling of two stratigraphic test wells to obtain electronic well logs, core, and sidewall core plugs. These data provide direct measurements of porosity, permeability, and lithologic variability critical for reservoir characterization. Complementing the well program, a limited 2D seismic survey was acquired to help select the site for Westover #2, and a more regional Seismic Exchange (SEI) seismic survey was licensed and interpreted to define structural and stratigraphic frameworks in a new Static Earth Model (SEM), map reservoir continuity, and identify potential sealing intervals. Integrated with geologic and reservoir modeling, these datasets form the basis for evaluating storage capacity, injectivity, and containment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Hybrid-energy approach enabled by heat storage and oxy-combustion to generate electricity with near-zero or negative CO 2 emissions

We assess a hybrid-energy approach that modifies a steam-turbine power plant to use renewable energy sources (electricity, plus options for geothermal and solar heat), plus fossil fuel (natural gas and coal) and/or waste biomass (e.g., Douglas fir woodchips). Heat storage allows heat to be created during periods of excess energy supply and for that heat to be converted to electricity when demanded. Excess electricity, such as from variable renewable energy (VRE), is used to generate oxygen for oxy-combustion furnaces that create very-hot, high-purity CO 2 that heats granular rock beds in insulated vessels. Cool CO 2 leaving the beds is dried, sent to compressors powered by excess VRE electricity, before being sent by pipeline to geologic CO 2 storage. Very-hot CO 2 transfers high-grade heat from storage to the power plant in a closed loop that returns medium-grade heat back to storage, allowing low- and medium-grade renewable-heat sources to be stacked beneath combustion heat, with all heat sources being converted to electricity at the same (high) thermal efficiency. Reliable, on-demand power may be generated with near-zero CO 2 emissions with fossil fuel and with negative CO 2 emissions with waste biomass. Our analyses show that with fossil fuel, up to 35% of gross power can be derived from renewable sources, while for waste biomass, it can be entirely derived from renewable sources. Because our approach has the potential to ensure that grids have a continuous supply of clean energy and because electricity is only generated once, when demanded, it could serve as an efficient alternative to bulk energy storage.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Quantifying the drivers of ecosystem fluxes and water potential across the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in an arid woodland

Dryland ecosystems occupy a vast swath of the terrestrial land surface and exert a sizeable impact on the cycling of carbon and water globally. These biomes are characterized by tightly coupled carbon and water cycles that respond rapidly to transient pulses in water availability. However, there exist many mechanistic uncertainties regarding the environmental drivers of, and linkages between, plant and ecosystem processes. Thus, drylands are often poorly represented in many vegetation and land surface models. An enhanced understanding of dryland ecosystem function is limited by the lack of long-term, co-located, and frequent measurements of plant and ecosystem processes. At a piñon-juniper woodland in southeastern Utah, USA, we collected a continuous dataset of meteorological conditions, soil water potential from surface to bedrock, tree water potential, and ecosystem carbon and water fluxes from eddy covariance. We found that predawn and midday tree water potential and daily ecosystem fluxes were highly sensitive to fluctuations in soil water availability, particularly in shallower layers, and that daytime variability in atmospheric drivers only loosely controlled these processes. The strong connections between shallow soil water potential, tree water potential, and ecosystem fluxes occurred because of the dominant role of precipitation pulses in driving vegetation activity, as even small pulses of moisture stimulated shallow soil water potential, tree water potential, and evapotranspiration for between 1 and 2 weeks. Carbon fluxes (net ecosystem exchange and gross primary productivity) were sensitive to precipitation pulses for longer, up to 3 weeks. Our results highlight that improved monitoring and sensing of shallow soil moisture can greatly enhance our understanding of dryland ecosystem function. Here, a better mechanistic understanding of the impacts of precipitation pulses is also needed to improve vegetation modeling of dryland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh

Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr –1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Realization and Calibration of Continuously Parameterized Two-Qubit Gates on a Trapped-Ion Quantum Processor

Continuously parameterized two-qubit gates are a key feature of state-of-the-art trapped-ion quantum processors, as they have favorable error scalings and show distinct improvements in circuit performance over more restricted maximally entangling gatesets. In this work, we provide a comprehensive and pedagogical discussion on how to practically implement these continuously parameterized Mølmer–Sørensen gates on the Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed, a low-level trapped-ion processor. To generate the arbitrary entangling angles, θ, we simply scale the amplitude of light used to generate the entanglement. However, doing so requires careful consideration of amplifier saturation as well as the variable light shifts that result. As such, we describe a method to calibrate and cancel the dominant fourth-order effects, followed by a dynamic virtual phase advance during the gate to cancel any residual light shifts, and find a linear scaling between θ and the residual light shift. Once we have considered and calibrated these effects, we demonstrate performance improvement with decreasing θ. Finally, we describe nuances of hardware control to transform the XX-type interaction of the arbitrary-angle Mølmer–Sørensen gate into a phase-agnostic and crosstalk-mitigating ZZ interaction.

Yale, Christopher Gordon [Sandia National Laborato↗

Machine-assisted discovery of integrable symplectic mappings

Integrable systems possess a hidden symmetry associated with the existence of conserved quantities known as integrals of motion. These systems play an important role in understanding general dynamics in accelerators and have potential for future designs. This work will cover two automated methods for finding integrable symplectic maps of the plane. The first algorithm is based on the observation that the evolution of an integrable system in phase space is confined to a lower-dimensional submanifold of a specific type. The second algorithm relies on an analysis of dynamical variables. Both methods rediscover some of the famous McMillan-Suris integrable mappings and ultra-discrete Painlev\'e equations. Over 100 new integrable families are presented and analyzed, some of which are isolated in the space of parameters, while others are families with one parameter (or the ratio of parameters) being either continuous or discrete. In addition, the newly discovered maps are related to a general 2D symplectic map through the use of discrete perturbation theory. A method is proposed for constructing smooth near-integrable dynamical systems based on mappings with polygon invariants.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Machine-Assisted Discovery of Integrable Symplectic Mappings

Integrable systems possess a hidden symmetry associated with the existence of conserved quantities known as integrals of motion. These systems play an important role in understanding general dynamics in accelerators and have potential for future designs. This work will cover two automated methods for finding integrable symplectic maps of the plane. The first algorithm is based on the observation that the evolution of an integrable system in phase space is confined to a lower-dimensional submanifold of a specific type. The second algorithm relies on an analysis of dynamical variables. Both methods rediscover some of the famous McMillan-Suris integrable mappings and ultra-discrete Painlev\'e equations. Over 100 new integrable families are presented and analyzed, some of which are isolated in the space of parameters, while others are families with one parameter (or the ratio of parameters) being either continuous or discrete. In addition, the newly discovered maps are related to a general 2D symplectic map through the use of discrete perturbation theory. A method is proposed for constructing smooth near-integrable dynamical systems based on mappings with polygon invariants.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

IL-17A Increases Doxorubicin Efficacy in Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Due to lack of targetable receptors and intertumoral heterogeneity, triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains particularly difficult to treat. Doxorubicin (DOX) is typically used as nonselective neoadjuvant chemotherapy, but the diversity of treatment efficacy remains unclear. Comparable to variability in clinical response, an experimental model of TNBC using a 4T1 syngeneic mouse model was found to elicit a differential response to a seven-day treatment regimen of DOX. Single-cell RNA sequencing identified an increase in T cells in tumors that responded to DOX treatment compared to tumors that continued to grow uninhibited. Additionally, compared to resistant tumors, DOX sensitive tumors contained significantly more CD4 T helper cells (339%), γδ T cells (727%), Naïve T cells (278%), and activated CD8 T cells (130%). Furthermore, transcriptional profiles of tumor infiltrated T cells in DOX responsive tumors revealed decreased exhaustion, increased chemokine/cytokine expression, and increased activation and cytotoxic activity. γδ T cell derived IL-17A was identified to be highly abundant in the sensitive tumor microenvironment. IL-17A was also found to directly increase sensitivity of TNBC cells in combination with DOX treatment. In TNBC tumors sensitive to DOX, increased IL-17A levels lead to a direct effect on cancer cell responsiveness and chronic stimulation of tumor infiltrated T cells leading to improved chemotherapeutic efficacy. IL-17A’s role as a chemosensitive cytokine in TNBC may offer new opportunities for treating chemoresistant breast tumors and other cancer types.

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“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗

Pre-training Vision Models for the Classification of Alerts from Wide-field Time-domain Surveys

Modern wide-field time-domain surveys facilitate the study of transient, variable and moving phenomena by conducting image differencing and relaying alerts to their communities. Machine learning tools have been used on data from these surveys and their precursors for more than a decade, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which make predictions directly from input images, saw particularly broad adoption through the 2010s. Since then, continually rapid advances in computer vision have transformed the standard practices around using such models. It is now commonplace to use standardized architectures pre-trained on large corpora of everyday images (e.g., ImageNet). In contrast, time-domain astronomy studies still typically design custom CNN architectures and train them from scratch. Here, we explore the effects of adopting various pre-training regimens and standardized model architectures on the performance of alert classification. We find that the resulting models match or outperform a custom, specialized CNN like what is typically used for filtering alerts. Moreover, our results show that pre-training on galaxy images from Galaxy Zoo tends to yield better performance than pre-training on ImageNet or training from scratch. We observe that the design of standardized architectures are much better optimized than the custom CNN baseline, requiring significantly less time and memory for inference despite having more trainable parameters. On the eve of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and other image-differencing surveys, these findings advocate for a paradigm shift in the creation of vision models for alerts, demonstrating that greater performance and efficiency, in time and in data, can be achieved by adopting the latest practices from the computer vision field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Laboratory-based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Additionally, there is a growing concern on characterizing the non-uniformity of field exposure. Therefore, data from field surveys are critical to assess the performance of component lifetimes. Using a documented field survey protocol, 19 field surveys were conducted. The focus of this survey strategy is to investigate spatial continuity in degradation modes. By combining field survey data with real-time satellite weather data, stressor / response models have been trained. Generalized additive Models (GAM) model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. Two different GAM constructions were testing using different implementations of basis splines. The model includes variables on the environmental stressors of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The incorporation of hierarchical structure into the models allowed for material specific degradation rates, while maintaining the assumption of a global trend. The model performed well with an adjusted R2 of 0.975 for yellowness index prediction.

backsheet↗