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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Aeronautics Sustainable Aviation Overview

We live in challenging but exciting times for aviation as the sector continues to emerge from the unprecedented impact of a global pandemic while addressing its contribution to global warming. This perfect storm provides opportunity and the drivers that can lead to the most substantial changes the aviation sector has seen since the convergence of jet engines and swept wings over 60 years ago. The reality is we are entering the dawn of a new era of sustainable aviation full of opportunities and challenges that must economically address the health and transportation needs of society with unprecedentedly low impact on local, regional, and global environments. Today, commercial aviation physically connects countries across the globe and is an integral, critical part of today’s expanding global economy. Commercial aviation relies almost entirely on subsonic transport aircraft to constantly move people and goods from one place to another across the globe. While an effective means of transportation providing an unmatched combination of payload, speed, and range, future subsonic aircraft must continue to improve to meet efficiency, environmental, and economic goals established around the world to sustain the substantial growth projected in this well-established market. Commercial supersonic transports have come and gone in the global market, but they are on the verge of reemerging. Vertical lift vehicles leveraging breakthroughs in autonomous systems and electrified propulsion are positioned for massive growth in local and regional markets leading to daily flights within metropolitan areas that may exceed that across countries. To succeed, these new aircraft must be sustainable from day 1. NASA Aeronautics has a long history of contributions to aviation, and today it continues to address the challenge of sustainable growth of the traditional air transportation system through the research and development of systems and technologies for future aircraft and airspace operations. Research programs over the last decade have set the stage to demonstrate key technologies offering step-change performance and environmental impact. Through a Sustainable Flight National Partnership, NASA will partner with industry, academia, and other government agencies to demonstrate the most promising technologies during the 2020s to enable revolutionary systems in the early 2030s. In parallel, NASA will explore systems and technologies for further benefits approaching zero environmental impact beyond the 2030s. Similarly, NASA programs are addressing the challenges of emerging markets enabled by vertical take-off/landing and low-boom supersonic cruise. This oral-only presentation will focus on opportunities and challenges in the traditional subsonic transport while touching on emerging vertical lift and supersonic commercial aviation markets. NASA’s recent contributions, ongoing research, and plans for sustainable aviation will be discussed, including airframe, propulsion, and integrated vehicle systems and technologies.

James A. Kenyon↗
NASA NTRS2015

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

Ice sheet reconstruction↗
NASA NTRS2014

Conducting Research on the International Space Station Using the EXPRESS Rack Facilities

EXPRESS Racks provide capability for payload access to ISS resources. The successful on-orbit operations and versatility of the EXPRESS Rack has facilitated the operations of many scientific areas, with the promise of continued payload support for years to come. EXPRESS Racks are currently deployed in the US Lab, Columbus and JEM. Process improvements and enhancements continue to improve the accommodations and make the integration and operations process more efficient. Payload Integration Managers serve as the primary interface between the ISS Program and EXPRESS Payload Developers. EXPRESS Project coordinates across multiple functional areas and organizations to ensure integrated EXPRESS Rack and subrack products and hardware are complete, accurate, on time, safe, and certified for flight. NASA is planning to expand the EXPRESS payload capacity by developing new Basic Express Racks expected to be on ISS in 2018.

Thompson, Sean W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Lobe Power Calculator and Indication System with Physics and Cycle Based Models

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL measures reactor power through various methods, two of them being thermal and Nitrogen-16 (N-16) activity. Water power calculator (WPC) is a thermal power system that measures flow and temperature to determine thermal quadrant powers. The N-16 system utilizes a beta detector that outputs Nitrogen activation levels to calculate lobe power through an algorithm called Lobe Power Calculation and Indication system (LPCIS). The LPCIS utilizes the N-16 system and the WPC system to determine reactor core power levels. The WPC provides accurate calculations of quadrant and total reactor thermal power. With the use of WPC measurements, thermal-to-N-16 (T2N) power ratios are produced to determine if the two indication systems agree on core power. Relative magnitude equations are used to utilize N-16 coefficients and multipliers to improve the indications of the LPCIS. These correct indications are crucial for maintaining safety limits because operators rely on this information for decision making. Currently, the LPCIS system uses linear equations and matrices to calculate lobe power through multipliers and coefficients. Advancements in technology and system upgrades have increased the accuracy of power readings by making the system more dynamic. The new proposed coefficient and multiplier method implements a cycle specific and physics-based model intended for changing coefficients during operation. This calibration experiment focused on power splitting, outer shim and neck shim, as well as fuel burning into the reactor digital acquisition system (RDAS) weighting factors. Results demonstrated that the physics learning method yields a smaller error margin inside of the desired power range for the data set 166-A. Continuing to improve the physics-based model will help improve the power accuracy of the LPCIS system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implications of an improved water equation of state for water-rich planets

Water (H 2 O), in all forms, is an important constituent in planetary bodies, controlling habitability and influencing geological activity. Under conditions found in the interior of many planets, as the pressure increases, the H-bonds in water gradually weaken and are replaced by ionic bonds. Recent experimental measurements of the water equation of state (EOS) showed both a new phase of H-bonded water ice, ice-VIIt, and a relatively low transition pressure just above 30 GPa to ionic bonded ice-X, which has a bulk modulus 2.5 times larger. The higher bulk modulus of ice-X produces larger planets for a given mass, thereby either reducing the atmospheric contribution to the volume of many exoplanets or limiting their water content. We investigate the impact of the new EOS measurements on the planetary mass–radius relation and interior structure for water-rich planets. We find that the change in the planet mass–radius relation caused by the systematic differences between previous and new experimental EOS measurements is comparable to the observational uncertainties in some planet sizes – an issue that will become more important as observations continue to improve.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Lobe Power Calculator and Indication System with Physics and Cycle Based Models

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL measures reactor power through two methods, thermal and Nitrogen-16 (N-16) activity. Water power calculator (WPC) is a thermal power system that measures flow and temperature to determine the thermal quadrant powers. The N-16 system utilizes a beta chamber detector that outputs reactivity levels to calculate lobe power through an algorithm called lobe power calculation and indication system (LPCIS). The LPCIS utilizes the N-16 system and the WPC system to determine reactor core power levels. The WPC provides accurate calculations of quadrant and total reactor thermal power. With the use of WPC measurements, thermal-to-N-16 (T2N) power ratios are produced to determine if the two indication systems agree on core power. Relative magnitude equations are used to utilize N-16 coefficients and multipliers to improve the indications of the LPCIS. This is crucial for maintaining safety limits. Currently, the LPCIS system uses linear equations and matrices to calculate lobe power through multipliers and coefficients. Advancements in technology and system upgrades have assisted system engineers at INL with the objective to reach a more dynamic system. In return the system demonstrates an increase in the accuracy of power reading while maintaining safety margins. The new proposed coefficient and multiple method implements a cycle specific, and a physics-based model intended for changing coefficients during operation. This calibration experiment focuses on power splitting, outer shim and neck shim, as well as fuel burning into the RDAS weighting factors. Results show that the Physics learning method yields a smaller error margin inside of the desired power range for the data set 166-A. This proved true for both constrained and unconstrained testing. This is most likely due to the physics data fitting approach that resulted in favorable coefficients and multipliers for 166-A. Continuing to improve the physics-based model will help improve the power accuracy of the LPCIS system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed

Abstract The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Astrobee: Five years of Completed, Current, and Future Research on the International Space Station using Free Flying Robots.

After five years on the International Space Station (ISS), the Astrobee Research Facility, has completed over 160 Test Sessions logging over 1200 hours of operations. Managed by the NASA ISS Program OZ office and supported by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) in California, the Astrobee Team currently maintains two identical free-flying Astrobee robots and a Docking Station for research on the ISS. As a technology demonstration platform, the Astrobee Robots are available for Guest Scientists to use for a spectrum of research capabilities. Using ambient air on the ISS, propelled by battery-operated fans, Astrobee is designed to autonomously operate throughout most of the USOS (US Orbital Segment), with the objective of minimizing the need for astronaut support. Astrobee carries a suite of six cameras, a two degree-of-freedom (DOF) arm with a gripper that can grasp ISS handrails and other objects, and three payload bays that provide power and data for guest science hardware. Astrobee can autonomously execute hours-long flight plans or be tele-operated from the ground. While the Astrobee Team continues to improve mapping and autonomous flight capabilities, one of the main goals of Astrobee Robots is to provide research opportunities for Guest Scientists. The Astrobee Robot Software (ARS) makes extensive use of the open-source Robot Operating System (ROS). The ARS can be used interchangeably with an Astrobee Simulator or as Astrobee’s onboard software. ARS features include autonomous docking and perching, real-time teleoperations from the ground, plan based autonomous tasks, multi Astrobee communication, among other capabilities. Through simulation software and ground testing laboratories, the Astrobee Team is available to support Guest Scientists during development and testing and lead real-time ISS operations. The Astrobee Team and Guest Scientists have completed research including Astrobatics maneuvers, RFID and sound sensing capabilities, Gecko materials studies, student Robotics Programming Challenges, and Free Flyer formation flight investigations. Current science with the Astrobee Robots is investigating new docking capabilities through software only research as well as testing new docking hardware installed on the Astrobees. The Astrobee Team and other researchers at NASA Ames continue to explore robotics applications for future NASA missions such as Gateway and potential experiments involving human-robot interactions. Continued advanced mapping resolution capabilities, and high-resolution panoramic imagery also remains areas of research. Exciting in development research involves docking for rendezvous proximity operation (CLINGERS), multi resolution 3D scanning (MRS), space debris removal in microgravity (REACCH). This presentation will mainly focus on completed research over the past year and current science being performed on the Astrobees. This presentation will also focus on how a Guest Scientist/Researcher progresses from conception to running their science on the Astrobees on the ISS, as well as discuss the Astrobee Facility resources available for supporting ground testing and real-time ISS operations.

Astrobee↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vertical z-axis discontinuous carbon fibers for improved lightning strike performance of continuous fiber-reinforced polymer composites

Effective lightning strike protection for critical aerospace and wind applications requires high electrical conductivity to dissipate current efficiently. However, polymer matrix composites face a challenge due to their inherently insulating nature. While conventional carbon fiber-reinforced composites (CFRP) exhibit electrical conductivity in the planar direction, achieving through-thickness conductivity remains an ongoing challenge. In this work, we have undertaken the fabrication of CFRP interleaved with vertically oriented carbon fibers (Z-fiber) to impart higher electrical conductivity along the thickness direction. Two Z-fiber composite variations are prepared: Z-1 with a single layer of Z-fiber and Z-5 with five interleaved layers and compared with no Z-fiber layer (Z-0) composite. The composite panels were subjected to lab-scale lightning strike tests with a current magnitude of 100 kA. To emulate real-world service conditions, an aerospace-grade paint coating was applied to the composite laminates. Comparative analysis shows Z-1 reduces damage diameter to ∼22 mm compared to Z-0 (∼26 mm), while Z-5 exhibits the least damage (∼16.7 mm), confirmed by optical microscopy. Z-5 demonstrates nine times higher through-thickness electrical conductivity than Z-0, reducing electrical anisotropy substantially. Thermal-electric finite element damage modeling predicts surface damage within 6% of experimental values for both Z-0 and Z-5 composites. Flexural tests post-lightning reveal Z-5 retains 66% flexural strength and 86% modulus, significantly better than Z-0, which retains less than 40% for both properties. This study highlights the efficacy of Z-fiber composites in lightning strike protection, offering improved through-thickness conductivity and mechanical property retention.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of H-Canyon Ventilation Exhaust Tunnel Inspection at the Savannah River Site - 20052

The Department of Energy (DOE) H-Canyon Facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is operated by Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS). The Facility Structural Integrity Program [1] provides a process to inspect, evaluate, and document the conditions of passive safety related structural systems and components, their degradation mechanisms and their impact on the safety envelope. The Structural Integrity Program performs periodic visual inspections to confirm the systems and components can perform their safety function and recommend corrective actions before the function is compromised. The H-Canyon Exhaust Tunnel is part of the H-Canyon Ventilation System and is periodically inspected under the Structural Integrity Program. The Tunnel performs a Safety Class passive design feature function that is available 100% of the time. The underground reinforced concrete Tunnel directs Canyon process air from the Canyon to the Sand Filter System. The radiological and chemical airborne activity coupled with the physical configuration of the tunnel precludes a manned entry into the tunnel to perform the inspection. Unlike active systems that can be subjected to physical testing to confirm capability, qualification calculations, including modeling, is performed to assess passive design feature capabilities relative to operational, accident and natural phenomena hazards events. Input for these calculations come from knowledge of field conditions, design drawings and conservative assumptions. The knowledge of field conditions comes from concrete and soil testing activities as well as inspection data. The use of cameras on crawlers to obtain inspection data and how that data is used in qualification calculations is the focus of this discussion. Remote Tunnel inspections have been performed using cameras on a stick, referred to as pole cameras, prior to Calendar Year 2003 (CY2003). Since CY2003, six camera equipped crawlers have been used. Crawlers have evolved and improved by incorporating lessons learned from the previous inspections. The latest 2019 crawler successfully traveled the entire length of the tunnel between the Canyon and Sand Filter System and captured images that were previously unseen, thus providing key visual data for the Structural Integrity Program report [2]. The inspection data serves as 1) input to qualification calculations, 2) validates current conditions remain bounded by qualification calculations, and 3) documents a record of change over time. This data is vital for the effective evaluation of the tunnel structure and aids with predicting the life cycle service life safety envelope to protect the public, environment, and facility worker. The goal of the 2019 deployment was to use a more robust vehicle to ensure travel over obstacles, perform the inspection with higher resolution cameras, and have the ability to elevate the cameras to view surfaces previously obscured by abandon-in-place ducts in the tunnel. The inspection information will serve to strengthen the input basis for qualification calculations, versus using excessive conservative calculation assumptions. This 2019 inspection was compared with previous crawler visual evidence to identify change over time to project remaining service life and confirm field conditions remain bounded by qualification calculations. The results of the 2019 Exhaust Tunnel inspection continue to improve and provide a firm basis to make sound engineering judgements regarding tunnel capability and approaches in projecting remaining service life with an aging system and component. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2006

Introduction to MODIS Cloud Products

The Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle are fundamentally coupled with the distribution and properties of clouds. Therefore, the ability to remotely infer cloud properties and their variation in space and time is crucial for establishing climatologies as a reference for validation of present-day climate models and in assessing future climate change. Remote cloud observations also provide data sets useful for testing and improving cloud model physics, and for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagers on the Terra and Aqua Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms provide the capability for globally retrieving these properties using passive solar reflectance and infrared techniques. In addition to providing measurements similar to those offered on a suite of historical operational weather platforms such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), MODIS provides additional spectral and/or spatial resolution in key atmospheric bands, along with on-board calibration, to expand the capability for global cloud property retrievals. The core MODIS operational cloud products include cloud top pressure, thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, particle size, and water path, and are derived globally at spatial resolutions of either 1- or 5-km (referred to as Level-2 or pixel-level products). In addition, the MODIS atmosphere team (collectively providing cloud, aerosol, and clear sky products) produces a combined gridded product (referred to as Level-3) aggregated to a 1 equal-angle grid, available for daily, eight-day, and monthly time periods. The wealth of information available from these products provides critical information for climate studies as well as the continuation and improved understanding of existing satellite-based cloud climatologies derived from heritage instruments. This chapter provides an overview of the MODIS Level-2 and -3 operational cloud products.

Baum, Bryan A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances in SnO 2 for Efficient and Stable n-i-p Perovskite Solar Cells

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) based on the regular n-i-p device architecture have reached above 25% certified efficiency with continuously reported improvements in recent years. A key common factor for these recent breakthroughs is the development of SnO 2 as an effective electron transport layer in these devices. In this review, we discuss the key advances in SnO 2 development, including various deposition approaches and surface treatment strategies, to enhance the bulk and interface properties of SnO 2 for highly efficient and stable n-i-p PSCs. We also discuss the general materials chemistry associated with SnO 2 along with the corresponding materials challenges and improvement strategies, focusing on defects, intrinsic properties, and impact on device characteristics. Finally, we highlight some SnO2 implementations related to scalable processes and flexible devices, and we also provide our perspective on the future development of efficient and stable large-scale perovskite solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

MFC 5.0: An exascale many-physics flow solver

Many problems of interest in engineering, medicine, and the fundamental sciences rely on high-fidelity flow simulation, making performant computational fluid dynamics solvers a mainstay of the open-source software community. Previous work MFC 3.0 was made a published, documented, and open-source solver via Bryngelson et al. Comp. Phys. Comm. (2021) with numerous physical features, numerical methods, and scalable infrastructure. MFC 5.0 is a significant update to MFC 3.0, featuring a broad set of well-established and novel physical models and numerical methods, as well as the introduction of GPU and APU (or superchip) acceleration. Here, we exhibit state-of-the-art performance and ideal scaling on the first two exascale supercomputers, OLCF Frontier and LLNL El Capitan. Combined with MFC’s single-accelerator performance, MFC achieves exascale computation in practice, and achieved the largest-to-date public CFD simulation at 200 trillion grid points as a 2025 ACM Gordon Bell Prize finalist. New physical features include the immersed boundary method, N-fluid phase change, Euler–Euler and Euler–Lagrange sub-grid bubble models, fluid-structure interaction, hypo- and hyper-elastic materials, chemically reacting flow, two-material surface tension, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), and more. Numerical techniques now represent the current state-of-the-art, including general relaxation characteristic boundary conditions, WENO variants, Strang splitting for stiff sub-grid flow features, and low Mach number treatments. Weak scaling to tens of thousands of GPUs on OLCF Summit and Frontier and LLNL El Capitan achieves efficiencies within 5% of ideal to over 90% of their respective system sizes. Strong scaling results for a 16-times increase in device count show parallel efficiencies over 90% on OLCF Frontier. MFC’s software stack has undergone further improvements, including continuous integration, which ensures code resilience and correctness through over 300 regression tests; metaprogramming, which reduces code length while maintaining performance portability; and code generation for computing chemical reactions

Computational fluid dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network-based control of an ultrafast laser

With the recent advances in machine learning (ML) and data science (DS), the control, modeling, and analysis of these complex systems continues to improve. In this work, we report on the optimization of the intensity of a femtosecond laser using feedforward neural networks (FFNN) that model the input–output relationships of the data. The input parameters of the system were optimized to achieve the required performance of the femtosecond laser. We propose a neural network-based control system to model the relationship between the spectral amplitude and phase of the input laser pulse at the amplifier input and the shape of the output pulse. Low-jitter laser parameter inputs and the resulting laser pulse duration were modeled, and the resulting correlation between the input and output data was used to optimize the laser pulse. Here, we demonstrate improved processing and laser control performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rheology and stability of nanoparticle-stabilized CO 2 foam under reservoir conditions

This work investigates the rheology and stability of nanoparticle-stabilized CO 2 foams under reservoir conditions (high temperature and high pressure) for fracturing applications. The effects of different parameters on foam apparent viscosity and foam stability were experimentally investigated including the effects of nanoparticle concentration, salinity, foam quality (Γ), shear rate and temperature. The power law model was applied to calculate foam apparent viscosity owing to its pseudo-plastic behavior, and the changes of foam heights over time were used to evaluate foam stability. Results showed that the CO 2 foam apparent viscosity featured a mountain-shaped curve versus Γ, with the peak apparent viscosity obtained at 70% foam quality. The increase of salinity (up to 11%) in the continuous phase improved both foam stability and rheology. Higher nanoparticle concentration could contribute to better foam stability, but there was a threshold concentration, above which the foam apparent viscosity remained stabilized. The CO 2 foam stabilized by nanoparticles displayed a shear-thickening behavior as the experiment flow rate increased from 6 mL/min to 18 mL/min. Further studies showed that as the total flow rate increased, the CO 2 foam became finer-textured with better stability. Elevated temperatures could undermine foam apparent viscosity and long-term stability. The results of this study could provide guidelines as to the design of foam fracturing systems for field applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗