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DOE OSTI2021

Statistical tools for a better optical model

Background: Modern statistical tools provide the ability to compare the information content of observables and provide a path to explore which experiments would be most useful to give insight into and constrain theoretical models. Purpose: Here we study three such tools in the context of nuclear reactions with the goal of constraining the optical potential. Method: The three statistical tools examined are (i) the principal component analysis, (ii) the sensitivity analysis based on derivatives, and (iii) the Bayesian evidence. We first apply these tools to a toy-model case, comparing the form of the imaginary part of the optical potential. Then we consider two different reaction observables, elastic angular distributions and polarization data for reactions on 48 Ca and 208 Pb at two different beam energies. Results: For the toy-model case, we find significant discrimination power in the sensitivities and the Bayesian evidence, showing clearly that the volume imaginary term is more useful to describe scattering at higher energies. When comparing between elastic cross sections and polarization data using realistic optical models, sensitivity studies indicate that both observables are roughly equally sensitive but the variability of the optical model parameters is strongly angle dependent. The Bayesian evidence shows some variability between the two observables, but the Bayes factor obtained is not sufficient to discriminate between angular distributions and polarization. Conclusions: From the cases considered, we conclude that, in general, elastic scattering angular distributions have similar impact in constraining the optical potential parameters compared with the polarization data. The angular ranges for the optimum experimental constraints can vary significantly with the observable considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating a ponderomotive guiding center algorithm into a quasi-static particle-in-cell code based on azimuthal mode decomposition

High fidelity modeling of plasma based acceleration (PBA) requires the use of three dimensional, fully nonlinear, and kinetic descriptions based on the particle-in-cell (PIC) method. In PBA an intense particle beam or laser (driver) propagates through a tenuous plasma whereby it excites a plasma wave wake. Three-dimensional PIC algorithms based on the quasi-static approximation (QSA) have been successfully applied to efficiently model the interaction between relativistic charged particle beams and plasma. In a QSA PIC algorithm, the plasma response to a charged particle beam or laser driver is calculated based on forces from the driver and self-consistent forces from the QSA form of Maxwell's equations. These fields are then used to advance the charged particle beam or laser forward by a large time step. Since the time step is not limited by the regular Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition that constrains a standard 3D fully electromagnetic PIC code, a 3D QSA PIC code can achieve orders of magnitude speedup in performance. Recently, a new hybrid QSA PIC algorithm that combines another speedup technique known as an azimuthal Fourier decomposition has been proposed and implemented. This hybrid algorithm decomposes the electromagnetic fields, charge and current density into azimuthal harmonics and only the Fourier coefficients need to be updated, which can reduce the algorithmic complexity of a 3D code to that of a 2D code. Modeling the laser-plasma interaction in a full 3D electromagnetic PIC algorithm is very computationally expensive due the enormous disparity of physical scales to be resolved. In the QSA the laser is modeled using the ponderomotive guiding center (PGC) approach. We describe how to implement a PGC algorithm compatible for the QSA PIC algorithms based on the azimuthal mode expansion. Here this algorithm permits time steps orders of magnitude larger than the cell size and it can be asynchronously parallelized. Details on how this is implemented into the QSA PIC code that utilizes an azimuthal mode expansion, QPAD, are also described. Benchmarks and comparisons between a fully 3D explicit PIC code (OSIRIS), as well as a few examples related to laser wakefield acceleration, are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and Potential of Waveform Modeling for Crustal Scale Predictions

Waveform modeling is crucial to improving our understanding of observed seismograms. Forward simulation of wavefields provides quantitative methods of testing interactions between complicated source functions and the propagation medium. Here, we discuss three experiments designed to improve under standing of high frequency seismic wave propagation. First, we compare observed and predicted travel times of crustal phases for a set of real observed earthquakes with calculations and synthetic seismograms. Second, we estimate the frequency content of a series of nearly co-located earthquakes of varying magnitude for which we have a relatively well- known 1D velocity model. Third, we apply stochastic perturbations on top of a 3D tomographic model and qualitatively assess how those variations map to differences in the seismograms. While different in scope and aim, these three vignettes illustrate the current state of crustal scale waveform modeling and the potential for future studies to better constrain the structure of the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal design of acoustic metamaterial cloaks under uncertainty

In this work, we consider the problem of optimal design of an acoustic cloak under uncertainty and develop scalable approximation and optimization methods to solve this problem. The design variable is taken as an infinite-dimensional spatially-varying field that represents the material property, while an additive infinite-dimensional random field represents the variability of the material property or the manufacturing error. Discretization of this optimal design problem results in high-dimensional design variables and uncertain parameters. To solve this problem, we develop a computational approach based on a Taylor approximation and an approximate Newton method for optimization, which is based on a Hessian derived at the mean of the random field. We show our approach is scalable with respect to the dimension of both the design variables and uncertain parameters, in the sense that the necessary number of acoustic wave propagations is essentially independent of these dimensions, for numerical experiments with up to one million design variables and half a million uncertain parameters. Additionally, we demonstrate that, using our computational approach, an optimal design of the acoustic cloak that is robust to material uncertainty is achieved in a tractable manner. The optimal design under uncertainty problem is posed and solved for the classical circular obstacle surrounded by a ring-shaped cloaking region, subjected to both a single-direction single-frequency incident wave and multiple-direction multiple-frequency incident waves. Finally, we apply the method to a deterministic large-scale optimal cloaking problem with complex geometry, to demonstrate that the approximate Newton method’s Hessian computation is viable for large, complex problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Simons Observatory: science goals and forecasts for the enhanced Large Aperture Telescope

We describe updated scientific goals for the wide-field, millimeter-wave survey that will be produced by the Simons Observatory (SO). Significant upgrades to the 6-meter SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) are expected to be complete by 2028, and will include a doubled mapping speed with 30,000 new detectors and an automated data reduction pipeline. In addition, a new photovoltaic array will supply most of the observatory's power. The LAT survey will cover about 60% of the sky at a regular observing cadence, with five times the angular resolution and ten times the map depth of the Planck satellite. The science goals are to: (1) determine the physical conditions in the early universe and constrain the existence of new light particles; (2) measure the integrated distribution of mass, electron pressure, and electron momentum in the late-time universe, and, in combination with optical surveys, determine the neutrino mass and the effects of dark energy via tomographic measurements of the growth of structure at redshifts z ≲ 3; (3) measure the distribution of electron density and pressure around galaxy groups and clusters, and calibrate the effects of energy input from galaxy formation on the surrounding environment; (4) produce a sample of more than 30,000 galaxy clusters, and more than 100,000 extragalactic millimeter sources, including regularly sampled AGN light-curves, to study these sources and their emission physics; (5) measure the polarized emission from magnetically aligned dust grains in our Galaxy, to study the properties of dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation; (6) constrain asteroid regoliths, search for Trans-Neptunian Objects, and either detect or eliminate large portions of the phase space in the search for Planet 9; and (7) provide a powerful new window into the transient universe on time scales of minutes to years, concurrent with observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory of overlapping sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-baseline quantum sensor network as dark matter haloscope

Ultralight dark photons constitute a well-motivated candidate for dark matter. A coherent electromagnetic wave is expected to be induced by dark photons when coupled with Standard-Model photons through kinetic mixing mechanism, and should be spatially correlated within the de Broglie wavelength of dark photons. Here we report the first search for correlated dark-photon signals using a long-baseline network of 15 atomic magnetometers, which are situated in two separated meter-scale shield rooms with a distance of about 1700 km. Both the network’s multiple sensors and the shields large size significantly enhance the expected dark-photon electromagnetic signals, and long-baseline measurements confidently reduce many local noise sources. Using this network, we constrain the kinetic mixing coefficient of dark photon dark matter over the mass range 4.1 feV-2.1 peV, which represents the most stringent constraints derived from any terrestrial experiments operating over the aforementioned mass range. Our prospect indicates that future data releases may go beyond the astrophysical constraints from the cosmic microwave background and the plasma heating.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-energy-density-physics measurements in implosions using Bayesian inference

Convergent high-energy-density (HED) experimental platforms are used to study matter under some of the most extreme conditions that can be produced on Earth, comparable to the interior of stars. There are many challenges in using these systems for fundamental measurements currently being addressed by new analysis methods, such as the combination of a reduced physics model and Bayesian inference, allowing a self-consistent inference of physical quantities with a robust error analysis. These methods in combination with simple (as compared to inertial confinement fusion implosions) implosion platforms, which can be modified to show sensitivity to different physical mechanisms of interest, are used to study the physical properties of matter under extreme conditions. This work discusses a subset of implosion targets for studying opacity effects, electron-ion equilibration, and thermal conductivity and, as an example, a system consisting of a thick-shelled, gas-filled laser-direct-drive implosion is used to show how a reduced model and Bayesian inference can help inform experimental design decisions such as diagnostic choice. It is shown that for this system that a combination of neutron and x-ray self-emission diagnostics is critical for constraining the details of the thermodynamic states in the system and that the conductivity exponent in a Spitzer like framework can be constrained to the 30% level in deuterium at gigabar conditions. Furthermore, this process can be applied to many HED systems to make underlying model assumptions explicit and facilitate experimental design and analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous compression and opacity data from time-series radiography with a Lagrangian marker

Time-resolved radiography can be used to obtain absolute shock Hugoniot states by simultaneously measuring at least two mechanical parameters of the shock, and this technique is particularly suitable for one-dimensional converging shocks where a single experiment probes a range of pressures as the converging shock strengthens. However, at sufficiently high pressures, the shocked material becomes hot enough that the x-ray opacity falls significantly. Additionally, if the system includes a Lagrangian marker such that the mass within the marker is known, this additional information can be used to constrain the opacity as well as the Hugoniot state. In the limit that the opacity changes only on shock heating, and not significantly on subsequent isentropic compression, the opacity of the shocked material can be determined uniquely. More generally, it is necessary to assume the form of the variation of opacity with isentropic compression or to introduce multiple marker layers. Alternatively, assuming either the equation of state or the opacity, the presence of a marker layer in such experiments enables the non-assumed property to be deduced more accurately than from the radiographic density reconstruction alone. An example analysis is shown for measurements of a converging shock wave in polystyrene at the National Ignition Facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control-Based Trajectory Shaper for Safe and Efficient Adaptive Cruise Control

Recent studies show that commercially-available adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems are string-unstable, indicating that ACC-driven vehicles amplify speed fluctuations from downstream traffic and induce stop-and-go waves. Moreover, it is challenging to revise the original control algorithm of an ACC system to achieve string stability due to its internal complexity and powertrain uncertainties. To achieve desired control performance given a string-unstable ACC system and circumvent revising the original control algorithm, this study proposes a model predictive control-based trajectory shaper (MPC-TS), which only modifies the sensor-measured trajectory information (i.e., position and speed) of the preceding vehicle. The proposed MPC-TS leverages the input shaping technique to generate reference trajectory to improve string stability, while incorporating tracking errors and vehicle acceleration/deceleration magnitude in the MPC cost function and constraining fluctuations of vehicle speed and spacing to ensure desired car-following performance. Numerical experiments validate the control performance of ACC with the proposed MPC-TS in terms of string stability, safety, traffic efficiency, and comfort.

Zhou, Anye↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Impact of Geometrical Constraints on Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection

One of the most often cited features associated with collisionless magnetic reconnection is a Hall-type magnetic field, which leads, in antiparallel geometries, to a quadrupolar magnetic field signature. The combination of this out of plane magnetic field with the reconnection in-plane magnetic field leads to angling of magnetic flux tubes out of the plane defined by the incoming magnetic flux. Because it is propagated by Whistler waves, the quadrupolar field can extend over large distances in relatively short amounts of time - in fact, it will extend to the boundary of any modeling domain. In reality, however, the surrounding plasma and magnetic field geometry, defined, for example, by the overall solar wind flow, will in practice limit the extend over which a flux tube can be angled out of the main plain. This poses the question to what extent geometric constraints limit or control the reconnection process and this is the question investigated in this presentation. The investigation will involve a comparison of calculations, where open boundary conditions are set up to mimic either free or constrained geometries. We will compare momentum transport, the geometry of the reconnection regions, and the acceleration if ions and electrons to provide the current sheet in the outflow jet.

Hesse, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct observations of shock-induced melting in a porous solid using time-resolved x-ray diffraction

Here in this work we provide direct evidence of shock-induced melting and associated kinetics in a porous solid (aluminum powder) using time-resolved x-ray diffraction. Unambiguous evidence of melting in 50% porous aluminum (Al) powder samples, shocked to peak pressures between ~13 - 19 GPa, was provided by the broadening of the Debye-Scherrer ring corresponding to the (111) peak. Shocked Al powder did not melt completely in any of our experiments within the durations of measurement. Incomplete (partial) melting of the powder, even after several hundreds of nanoseconds of shock loading, provides insights into thermal transport with Al powder particles under high-pressure dynamic loading. Such insights are quite valuable for developing well-constrained melting models and thermodynamic equations of state for porous Al and other porous solids relevant to planetary and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

SPT-SLIM: A Line Intensity Mapping Pathfinder for the South Pole Telescope

The South Pole Telescope Summertime Line Intensity Mapper (SPT-SLIM) is a pathfinder experiment that will demonstrate the use of on-chip filter-bank spectrometers for mm-wave line intensity mapping. The SPT-SLIM focal plane consists of 18 dual-polarization filter-bank spectrometers covering 120–180 GHz with resolving power of 300, coupled to aluminum kinetic inductance detectors. A compact cryostat holds the detectors at 100 mK. SPT-SLIM will be deployed to the 10-m South Pole Telescope for observations during the 2023–2024 austral summer without removing the primary receiver. We discuss the overall instrument design, expected detector performance, and sensitivity to the carbon monoxide line signal at $0.5< z < 2$. The technology and observational techniques demonstrated by SPT-SLIM will enable next-generation line intensity mapping experiments that constrain cosmology beyond the redshift reach of galaxy surveys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2004

Subsurface Sampling and Sensing Using Burrowing Moles

Finding evidence for life on Mars will likely require accessing the subsurface since the Martian surface is both hostile to life and to preservation of biosignatures due to the cold dry conditions, the strong W environment, and the presence of strong oxidants. Systems are needed to probe beneath the sun and oxidant baked surface of Mars and return samples to the surface for analysis or to bring the instrument sensing underground. Recognizing this need, the European Space Agency incorporated a small subsurface penetrometer or Mole onto the Beagle 2 Mars lander. Had the 2003 landing been successful, the Mole would have collected samples from 1-1.5 m depth and delivered them to an organic analysis instrument on the surface. The de- vice called the Planetary Underground Tool (PLUTO), also measured soil mechanical and thermophysical properties. Constrained by the small mass and volume allowance of the Beagle lander, the PLUTO mole was a slender cylinder only 2 cm diameter and 28 cm long equipped with a small sampling device designed to collect samples and bring them to the surface for analysis by other instrument. The mass of the entire system including deployment mechanism and tether was 1/2 kg. sensor package underground to make in situ measurements. The Mars Underground Mole (MUM) is a larger Mole based on the PLUTO design but incorporating light collection optics that interface to a fiber optic cable in the tether that transmits light to a combined stimulated emission Raman Spectrometer and Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) reflectance Spectrometer with sensitivity from 0.7 to 2.5 micrometers. This instrument is called the Dual Spectral Sensor and uses a Digital Array Scanning Interferometer as the sensor technology, a type of fourier transform interferometer that uses fixed element prisms and thus is highly rugged compared to a Michaelson interferometer. Due to the size limitations of an on-Mole instrument compartment, and the availability of a tether, the sensor head, light sources, and control electronics for the instrument are on the surface. The DSS sensor is capable of sensing a wide range of minerals relevant to Mars Astrobiology objectives including hydrated minerals, clays, carbonates, sulfates, and ice. Additionally, Raman spectroscopy is effective for detecting organics. The MUM is designed to achieve a maximum depth of penetration of 5 m in Mars regolith and can be repeatedly deployed and retrieved. The ability to perform repeated sampling, combined with the low mass and power requirements, means that Moles could be incorporated into a rover mission as well as used on a stationary platform. The Mole mechanism is a pointed slender cylinder that advances into soil by way of an internal sliding hammer mechanism. Part of the energy released by the spring-loaded hammer with each shock is transferred to the Mole casing and from there to the soil, resulting in penetration by displacing and compressing the surrounding soil. A backwards-directed impulse as a re- action to each forward shock is transferred via a suppressor mass against a second weaker spring allowing forward motion without requiring reactive forces provided by the lander. The Mole tip can be opened to collect soil samples. The Mole casing is tethered to a supporting mechanism that supplies power. Components supporting the Mole on the surface include a launch tube, tether reel and winch for pulling in tether, in addition to the tether itself.

Stoker, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

GROWTH on S190814bv: Deep Synoptic Limits on the Optical/Near-infrared Counterpart to a Neutron Star–Black Hole Merger

On 2019 August 14, the Advanced LIGO and Virgo interferometers detected the high-significance gravitational wave (GW) signal S190814bv. The GW data indicated that the event resulted from a neutron star–black hole (NSBH) merger, or potentially a low-mass binary BH merger. Due to the low false-alarm rate and the precise localization (23 deg 2 at 90%), S190814bv presented the community with the best opportunity yet to directly observe an optical/near-infrared counterpart to an NSBH merger. To search for potential counterparts, the GROWTH Collaboration performed real-time image subtraction on six nights of public Dark Energy Camera images acquired in the 3 weeks following the merger, covering >98% of the localization probability. Using a worldwide network of follow-up facilities, we systematically undertook spectroscopy and imaging of optical counterpart candidates. Combining these data with a photometric redshift catalog, we ruled out each candidate as the counterpart to S190814bv and placed deep, uniform limits on the optical emission associated with S190814bv. For the nearest consistent GW distance, radiative transfer simulations of NSBH mergers constrain the ejecta mass of S190814bv to be M ej < 0.04 M ⊙ at polar viewing angles, or M ej < 0.03 M ⊙ if the opacity is κ < 2 cm 2 g -1 . Assuming a tidal deformability for the NS at the high end of the range compatible with GW170817 results, our limits would constrain the BH spin component aligned with the orbital momentum to be χ < 0.7 for mass ratios Q < 6, with weaker constraints for more compact NSs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the possible existence of hyper-heavy nuclei in a neutron-star environment

The synthesis of hyper-heavy elements is investigated under conditions simulating neutron star environment. The constrained molecular dynamics approach is used to simulate low energy collisions of extremely n-rich nuclei. A new type of the fusion barrier due to a “neutron wind” is observed when the effect of neutron star environment (screening of Coulomb interaction) is introduced implicitly. When introducing also a background of surrounding nuclei, the nuclear fusion becomes possible down to temperatures of 10 8 K and synthesis of extremely heavy and n-rich nuclei appears feasible. A possible existence of hyper-heavy nuclei in a neutron star environment could provide a mechanism of extra coherent neutrino scattering or an additional mechanism, resulting in x-ray burst or a gravitational wave signal and, thus, becoming another crucial process adding new information to the suggested models on neutron star evolution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Passive Remote Sensing of Cloud Ice Particles

Hurricanes, blizzards and other weather events are important to understand not only for disaster preparation, but also to track the global energy balance and to improve weather and climate forecasts. For several decades, passive radiometers and active radars on aircraft and satellites have been employed to remotely sense rain rates and the properties of liquid particles. In the past few years the relationships between frozen particles and millimeter-wave observations have become understood well enough to estimate the properties of ice in clouds. A brief background of passive remote sensing of precipitation will be presented followed by a focused discussion of recent research at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center estimating the properties of frozen particles in clouds. The retrievals are for (1) ice that will eventually melt into rain, (2) for solid precipitation falling in northern climates, and (3) cirrus ice clouds. The electromagnetic absorption and scattering properties and differences of liquid rain versus frozen particles will be summarized for frequencies from 6 to 340+ GHz. Challenges of this work including surface emissivity variability, non-linear and under-constrained relationships, and frozen particle unknowns will be discussed. Retrieved cloud particle contents and size distributions for ice above the melting layer in hurricanes, retrieved snowfall rates for a blizzard, and cirrus ice estimates will be presented. Future directions of this work will also be described.

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗

DOE OSTI2020

A search for optical and near-infrared counterparts of the compact binary merger GW190814

Here, we report on our observing campaign of the compact binary merger GW190814, detected by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors on 2019 August 14. This signal has the best localization of any observed gravitational wave (GW) source, with a 90 per cent probability area of 18.5 deg 2 , and an estimated distance of ≈240 Mpc. We obtained wide-field observations with the Deca-Degree Optical Transient Imager (DDOTI) covering 88 per cent of the probability area down to a limiting magnitude of w = 19.9 AB. Nearby galaxies within the high probability region were targeted with the Lowell Discovery Telescope (LDT), whereas promising candidate counterparts were characterized through multicolour photometry with the Reionization and Transients InfraRed (RATIR) and spectroscopy with the Gran Telescopio de Canarias (GTC). We use our optical and near-infrared limits in conjunction with the upper limits obtained by the community to constrain the possible electromagnetic counterparts associated with the merger. A gamma-ray burst seen along its jet’s axis is disfavoured by the multiwavelength data set, whereas the presence of a burst seen at larger viewing angles is not well constrained. Although our observations are not sensitive to a kilonova similar to AT2017gfo, we can rule out high-mass (>0.1 M ⊙ ) fast-moving (mean velocity ≥0.3c) wind ejecta for a possible kilonova associated with this merger.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗