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NASA NTRS2011

NASA Water Resources Program

With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. In addition to the numerous water availability issues, water quality related problems are seriously affecting human health and our environment. The potential crises and conflicts especially arise when water is competed among multiple uses. For example, urban areas, environmental and recreational uses, agriculture, and energy production compete for scarce resources, not only in the Western U.S. but throughout much of the U.S. and also in numerous parts of the world. Mitigating these conflicts and meeting water demands and needs requires using existing water resources more efficiently. The NASA Water Resources Program Element works to use NASA products and technology to address these critical water issues. The primary goal of the Water Resources is to facilitate application of NASA Earth science products as a routine use in integrated water resources management for the sustainable use of water. This also includes the extreme events of drought and floods and the adaptation to the impacts from climate change. NASA satellite and Earth system observations of water and related data provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as precipitation, snow, soil moisture, water levels, land cover type, vegetation type, and health. NASA Water Resources Program works closely to use NASA and Earth science data with other U.S. government agencies, universities, and non-profit and private sector organizations both domestically and internationally. The NASA Water Resources Program organizes its projects under five functional themes. I) Streamflow and Flood Forecasting 2) Water Supply and Irrigation (includes evapotranspiration) 3) Drought 4) Water Quality 5) Climate and Water Resources. To maximize this activity NASA Water Resources Program works closely with other government agencies (e.g., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA); the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USAID, the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)), universities, non-profit national and international organizations, and the private sector. The NASA Water Resources program currently is funding 21 active projects under the functional themes (http://wmp.gsfc.nasa.gov & http://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/applied-sciences/).

Toll, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today's integrated FMS/datalink. Auxiliary(lat/long) waypoints define a minimum delay reroute between current position and a downstream capture fix beyond the weather. These auxiliary waypoints can be uplinked to equipped aircraft and auto-loaded into the FMS. Alternatively, for unequipped aircraft, auxiliary waypoints can be replaced by nearby named fixes, but this could reduce potential savings. The presentation includes an overview of the automation approach and focuses on several cases in terms of potential savings, reroute complexity, best auxiliary waypoint solution vs. named fix solution, and other metrics.

McNally, B. David↗
NASA NTRS2010

Test of a General Formula for Black Hole Gravitational Wave Kicks

Although the gravitational wave kick velocity in the orbital plane of coalescing black holes has been understood for some time, apparently conflicting formulae have been proposed for the dominant outof- plane kick, each a good fit to different data sets. This is important to resolve because it is only the out-of-plane kicks that can reach more than 500 km s-l and can thus eject merged remnants from galaxies. Using a different ansatz for the out-of-plane kick, we show that we can fit almost all existing data to better than 5%. This is good enough for any astrophysical calculation and shows that the previous apparent conflict was only because the two data sets explored different aspects of the kick parameter space.

van Meter, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Advisory Systems Save Time, Fuel for Airlines

Heinz Erzberger never thought the sky was falling, but he knew it could benefit from enhanced traffic control. Throughout the 1990s, Erzberger led a team at Ames Research Center to develop a suite of automated tools to reduce restrictions and improve the efficiency of air traffic control operations. Called CTAS, or Center-TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Automation System, the software won NASA s Software of the Year award in 1998, and one of the tools in the suite - the traffic management advisor - was adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration and implemented at traffic control centers across the United States. Another one of the tools, Direct-To, has followed a different path. The idea behind Direct-To, explains Erzberger, a senior scientist at Ames, was that airlines could save fuel and money by shortening the routes they flew between take-off and landing. Aircraft are often limited to following established airways comprised of inefficient route segments. The routes are not easily adjusted because neither the pilot nor the aircraft controller can anticipate the constantly changing air traffic situation. To make the routes more direct while in flight, Erzberger came up with an idea for a software algorithm that could automatically examine air traffic in real-time, check to see if a shortcut was available, and then check for conflicts. If there were no conflicts and the shortcut saved more than 1 minute of flight time, the controller could be notified. "I was trying to figure out what goes on in the pilot and controller s minds when they decide to guide the aircraft in a certain way. That resulted in a different kind analysis," Erzberger says. As the engineer s idea went from theory to practice, in 2001, NASA demonstrated Direct-To in the airspace of Dallas-Ft. Worth. Estimations based on the demonstration found the technology was capable of saving 900 flying minutes per day for the aircraft in the test area.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Allocation of Functions in a Far-Term Air Traffic Control Environment

A human-in-the-loop exploration of a ground-based automated separation assurance concept was conducted that involved the allocation of certain functions between humans and automation. This exploration included operations that were sustained for prolonged periods of time with high levels of traffic in the presence of convective weather and scheduling constraints. An investigation into the acceptability of the defined roles and performance of tasks was conducted where it was found that the participants rated the concept and allocation of functions with a high level of acceptability. However, issues were encountered with the automation related to the detection of and response to tactical conflicts. Lower ratings were given on account of these concerns, and it was found that a key contributor to the underlying problems was transitioning aircraft and the uncertainty of their trajectories. Stemming from those results, participants responded that they would rather have direct control over aircraft transitions as well as more control over the tactical conflict resolution automation. In contrast, participants responded that they would rather have the automation place aircraft back on trajectory, and perform weather avoidance and scheduling tasks.

Homola, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2012

Root Raised Cosine (RRC) Filters and Pulse Shaping in Communication Systems

This presentation briefly discusses application of the Root Raised Cosine (RRC) pulse shaping in the space telecommunication. Use of the RRC filtering (i.e., pulse shaping) is adopted in commercial communications, such as cellular technology, and used extensively. However, its use in space communication is still relatively new. This will possibly change as the crowding of the frequency spectrum used in the space communication becomes a problem. The two conflicting requirements in telecommunication are the demand for high data rates per channel (or user) and need for more channels, i.e., more users. Theoretically as the channel bandwidth is increased to provide higher data rates the number of channels allocated in a fixed spectrum must be reduced. Tackling these two conflicting requirements at the same time led to the development of the RRC filters. More channels with wider bandwidth might be tightly packed in the frequency spectrum achieving the desired goals. A link model with the RRC filters has been developed and simulated. Using 90% power Bandwidth (BW) measurement definition showed that the RRC filtering might improve spectrum efficiency by more than 75%. Furthermore using the matching RRC filters both in the transmitter and receiver provides the improved Bit Error Rate (BER) performance. In this presentation the theory of three related concepts, namely pulse shaping, Inter Symbol Interference (ISI), and Bandwidth (BW) will be touched upon. Additionally the concept of the RRC filtering and some facts about the RRC filters will be presented

Cubukcu, Erkin↗
NASA NTRS2003

Component Activity Measurements in the Ti-Al-O System by Knudsen Cell Mass Spectrometry

Titanium-aluminides (containing (alpha)2-Ti3Al and gamma-TiAl intermetallic phases) have received continued research focus due to their potential as low-density materials for structural applications at intermediate temperatures. However their application above about 850C is hindered by poor oxidation resistance, characterized by the formation of a non-protective TiO2+Al2O3 scale and an oxygen-enriched subsurface zone. Consistent with this are measured titanium and aluminum activities in "oxygen-free" titanium-aluminides, which indicate Al2O3 is only stable for aluminum concentrations greater then 54 atom percent at 1373 K. However, the inability to form a protective Al2O3 scale is in apparent conflict with phase diagram studies, as experimental isothermal sections of the Ti-Al-O system show gamma-TiAl + alpha2-Ti3Al structures are in equilibrium only with Al2O3. The apparent resolution to this conflict lies in the inclusion of oxygen effects in the thermodynamic measurements

Copland, Evan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Air traffic management evaluation tool

Methods for evaluating and implementing air traffic management tools and approaches for managing and avoiding an air traffic incident before the incident occurs. A first system receives parameters for flight plan configurations (e.g., initial fuel carried, flight route, flight route segments followed, flight altitude for a given flight route segment, aircraft velocity for each flight route segment, flight route ascent rate, flight route descent route, flight departure site, flight departure time, flight arrival time, flight destination site and/or alternate flight destination site), flight plan schedule, expected weather along each flight route segment, aircraft specifics, airspace (altitude) bounds for each flight route segment, navigational aids available. The invention provides flight plan routing and direct routing or wind optimal routing, using great circle navigation and spherical Earth geometry. The invention provides for aircraft dynamics effects, such as wind effects at each altitude, altitude changes, airspeed changes and aircraft turns to provide predictions of aircraft trajectory (and, optionally, aircraft fuel use). A second system provides several aviation applications using the first system. Several classes of potential incidents are analyzed and averted, by appropriate change en route of one or more parameters in the flight plan configuration, as provided by a conflict detection and resolution module and/or traffic flow management modules. These applications include conflict detection and resolution, miles-in trail or minutes-in-trail aircraft separation, flight arrival management, flight re-routing, weather prediction and analysis and interpolation of weather variables based upon sparse measurements. The invention combines these features to provide an aircraft monitoring system and an aircraft user system that interact and negotiate changes with each other.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2012

Content analysis to detect high stress in oral interviews and text documents

A system of interrogation to estimate whether a subject of interrogation is likely experiencing high stress, emotional volatility and/or internal conflict in the subject's responses to an interviewer's questions. The system applies one or more of four procedures, a first statistical analysis, a second statistical analysis, a third analysis and a heat map analysis, to identify one or more documents containing the subject's responses for which further examination is recommended. Words in the documents are characterized in terms of dimensions representing different classes of emotions and states of mind, in which the subject's responses that manifest high stress, emotional volatility and/or internal conflict are identified. A heat map visually displays the dimensions manifested by the subject's responses in different colors, textures, geometric shapes or other visually distinguishable indicia.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗
NASA NTRS2012

Quantified Event Automata: Towards Expressive and Efficient Runtime Monitors

Runtime verification is the process of checking a property on a trace of events produced by the execution of a computational system. Runtime verification techniques have recently focused on parametric specifications where events take data values as parameters. These techniques exist on a spectrum inhabited by both efficient and expressive techniques. These characteristics are usually shown to be conflicting - in state-of-the-art solutions, efficiency is obtained at the cost of loss of expressiveness and vice-versa. To seek a solution to this conflict we explore a new point on the spectrum by defining an alternative runtime verification approach.We introduce a new formalism for concisely capturing expressive specifications with parameters. Our technique is more expressive than the currently most efficient techniques while at the same time allowing for optimizations.

state machines↗
NASA NTRS2012

Colonel Blotto Games and Lancaster's Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination

Military strategists face a difficult task when engaged in a battle against an adversarial force. They have to predict both what tactics their opponent will employ and the outcomes of any resultant conflicts in order to make the best decision about their actions. Game theory has been the dominant technique used by analysts to investigate the possible actions that an enemy will employ. Traditional game theory can be augmented by use of Lanchester equations, a set of differential equations used to determine the outcome of a conflict. This paper demonstrates a novel combination of game theory and Lanchester equations using Colonel Blotto games. Colonel Blotto games, which are one of the oldest applications of game theory to the military domain, look at the allocation of troops and resources when fighting across multiple areas of operation. This paper demonstrates that employing Lanchester equations within a game overcomes some of practical problems faced when applying game theory.

Collins, Andrew J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Improving Distributed Diagnosis Through Structural Model Decomposition

Complex engineering systems require efficient fault diagnosis methodologies, but centralized approaches do not scale well, and this motivates the development of distributed solutions. This work presents an event-based approach for distributed diagnosis of abrupt parametric faults in continuous systems, by using the structural model decomposition capabilities provided by Possible Conflicts. We develop a distributed diagnosis algorithm that uses residuals computed by extending Possible Conflicts to build local event-based diagnosers based on global diagnosability analysis. The proposed approach is applied to a multitank system, and results demonstrate an improvement in the design of local diagnosers. Since local diagnosers use only a subset of the residuals, and use subsystem models to compute residuals (instead of the global system model), the local diagnosers are more efficient than previously developed distributed approaches.

Bregon, Anibal↗
NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Trajectory Prediction Algorithm for Climbing Flights

Aircraft climb trajectories are difficult to predict, and large errors in these predictions reduce the potential operational benefits of some advanced features for NextGen. The algorithm described in this paper improves climb trajectory prediction accuracy by adjusting trajectory predictions based on observed track data. It utilizes rate-of-climb and airspeed measurements derived from position data to dynamically adjust the aircraft weight modeled for trajectory predictions. In simulations with weight uncertainty, the algorithm is able to adapt to within 3 percent of the actual gross weight within two minutes of the initial adaptation. The root-mean-square of altitude errors for five-minute predictions was reduced by 73 percent. Conflict detection performance also improved, with a 15 percent reduction in missed alerts and a 10 percent reduction in false alerts. In a simulation with climb speed capture intent and weight uncertainty, the algorithm improved climb trajectory prediction accuracy by up to 30 percent and conflict detection performance, reducing missed and false alerts by up to 10 percent.

Seperation Assurance↗
NASA NTRS2013

Work Practice Simulation of Complex Human-Automation Systems in Safety Critical Situations: The Brahms Generalized berlingen Model

The transition from the current air traffic system to the next generation air traffic system will require the introduction of new automated systems, including transferring some functions from air traffic controllers to on­-board automation. This report describes a new design verification and validation (V&V) methodology for assessing aviation safety. The approach involves a detailed computer simulation of work practices that includes people interacting with flight-critical systems. The research is part of an effort to develop new modeling and verification methodologies that can assess the safety of flight-critical systems, system configurations, and operational concepts. The 2002 Ueberlingen mid-air collision was chosen for analysis and modeling because one of the main causes of the accident was one crew's response to a conflict between the instructions of the air traffic controller and the instructions of TCAS, an automated Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System on-board warning system. It thus furnishes an example of the problem of authority versus autonomy. It provides a starting point for exploring authority/autonomy conflict in the larger system of organization, tools, and practices in which the participants' moment-by-moment actions take place. We have developed a general air traffic system model (not a specific simulation of Überlingen events), called the Brahms Generalized Ueberlingen Model (Brahms-GUeM). Brahms is a multi-agent simulation system that models people, tools, facilities/vehicles, and geography to simulate the current air transportation system as a collection of distributed, interactive subsystems (e.g., airports, air-traffic control towers and personnel, aircraft, automated flight systems and air-traffic tools, instruments, crew). Brahms-GUeM can be configured in different ways, called scenarios, such that anomalous events that contributed to the Überlingen accident can be modeled as functioning according to requirements or in an anomalous condition, as occurred during the accident. Brahms-GUeM thus implicitly defines a class of scenarios, which include as an instance what occurred at Überlingen. Brahms-GUeM is a modeling framework enabling "what if" analysis of alternative work system configurations and thus facilitating design of alternative operations concepts. It enables subsequent adaption (reusing simulation components) for modeling and simulating NextGen scenarios. This project demonstrates that BRAHMS provides the capacity to model the complexity of air transportation systems, going beyond idealized and simple flights to include for example the interaction of pilots and ATCOs. The research shows clearly that verification and validation must include the entire work system, on the one hand to check that mechanisms exist to handle failures of communication and alerting subsystems and/or failures of people to notice, comprehend, or communicate problematic (unsafe) situations; but also to understand how people must use their own judgment in relating fallible systems like TCAS to other sources of information and thus to evaluate how the unreliability of automation affects system safety. The simulation shows in particular that distributed agents (people and automated systems) acting without knowledge of each others' actions can create a complex, dynamic system whose interactive behavior is unexpected and is changing too quickly to comprehend and control.

complex systems↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development Context Driven Change Awareness and Analysis Framework

Recent work on workspace monitoring allows conflict prediction early in the development process, however, these approaches mostly use syntactic differencing techniques to compare different program versions. In contrast, traditional change-impact analysis techniques analyze related versions of the program only after the code has been checked into the master repository. We propose a novel approach, DeCAF (Development Context Analysis Framework), that leverages the development context to scope a change impact analysis technique. The goal is to characterize the impact of each developer on other developers in the team. There are various client applications such as task prioritization, early conflict detection, and providing advice on testing that can benefit from such a characterization. The DeCAF framework leverages information from the development context to bound the iDiSE change impact analysis technique to analyze only the parts of the code base that are of interest. Bounding the analysis can enable DeCAF to efficiently compute the impact of changes using a combination of program dependence and symbolic execution based approaches.

Sarma, Anita↗
NASA NTRS2014

A User Guide for Smoothing Air Traffic Radar Data

Matlab software was written to provide smoothing of radar tracking data to simulate ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) data in order to test a tactical conflict probe. The probe, called TSAFE (Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment), is designed to handle air-traffic conflicts left undetected or unresolved when loss-of-separation is predicted to occur within approximately two minutes. The data stream that is down-linked from an aircraft equipped with an ADS-B system would include accurate GPS-derived position and velocity information at sample rates of 1 Hz. Nation-wide ADS-B equipage (mandated by 2020) should improve surveillance accuracy and TSAFE performance. Currently, position data are provided by Center radar (nominal 12-sec samples) and Terminal radar (nominal 4.8-sec samples). Aircraft ground speed and ground track are estimated using real-time filtering, causing lags up to 60 sec, compromising performance of a tactical resolution tool. Offline smoothing of radar data reduces wild-point errors, provides a sample rate as high as 1 Hz, and yields more accurate and lag-free estimates of ground speed, ground track, and climb rate. Until full ADS-B implementation is available, smoothed radar data should provide reasonable track estimates for testing TSAFE in an ADS-B-like environment. An example illustrates the smoothing of radar data and shows a comparison of smoothed-radar and ADS-B tracking. This document is intended to serve as a guide for using the smoothing software.

Center/Tracon Radar↗
NASA NTRS2008

Cassini Information Management System in Distributed Operations Collaboration and Cassini Science Planning

Launched on October 15, 1997, the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft began its ambitious journey to the Saturnian system with a complex suite of 12 scientific instruments, and another 6 instruments aboard the European Space Agencies Huygens Probe. Over the next 6 1/2 years, Cassini would continue its relatively simplistic cruise phase operations, flying past Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. However, following Saturn Orbit Insertion (SOI), Cassini would become involved in a complex series of tasks that required detailed resource management, distributed operations collaboration, and a data base for capturing science objectives. Collectively, these needs were met through a web-based software tool designed to help with the Cassini uplink process and ultimately used to generate more robust sequences for spacecraft operations. In 2001, in conjunction with the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and later Venustar Software and Engineering Inc., the Cassini Information Management System (CIMS) was released which enabled the Cassini spacecraft and science planning teams to perform complex information management and team collaboration between scientists and engineers in 17 countries. Originally tailored to help manage the science planning uplink process, CIMS has been actively evolving since its inception to meet the changing and growing needs of the Cassini uplink team and effectively reduce mission risk through a series of resource management validation algorithms. These algorithms have been implemented in the web-based software tool to identify potential sequence conflicts early in the science planning process. CIMS mitigates these sequence conflicts through identification of timing incongruities, pointing inconsistencies, flight rule violations, data volume issues, and by assisting in Deep Space Network (DSN) coverage analysis. In preparation for extended mission operations, CIMS has also evolved further to assist in the planning and coordination of the dual playback redundancy of highvalue data from targets such as Titan and Enceladus. This paper will outline the critical role that CIMS has played for Cassini in the distributed ops paradigm throughout operations. This paper will also examine the evolution that CIMS has undergone in the face of new science discoveries and fluctuating operational needs. And finally, this paper will conclude with theoretical adaptation of CIMS for other projects and the potential savings in cost and risk reduction that could potentially be tapped into by future missions.

Equils, Douglas J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Water Stress in Global Transboundary River Basins: Significance of Upstream Water Use on Downstream Stress

Growing population and water demand have increased pressure on water resources in various parts of the globe, including many transboundary river basins. While the impacts of upstream water use on downstream water availability have been analyzed in many of these international river basins, this has not been systematically done at the global scale using coherent and comparable datasets. In this study, we aim to assess the change in downstream water stress due to upstream water use in the world's transboundary river basins. Water stress was first calculated considering only local water use of each sub-basin based on country-basin mesh, then compared with the situation when upstream water use was subtracted from downstream water availability. Wefound that water stress was generally already high when considering only local water use, affecting 0.95-1.44 billion people or 33%-51% of the population in transboundary river basins. After accounting for upstream water use, stress level increased by at least 1 percentage-point for 30-65 sub-basins, affecting 0.29-1.13 billion people. Altogether 288 out of 298 middle-stream and downstream sub-basin areas experienced some change in stress level. Further, we assessed whether there is a link between increased water stress due to upstream water use and the number of conflictive and cooperative events in the transboundary river basins, as captured by two prominent databases. No direct relationship was found. This supports the argument that conflicts and cooperation events originate from a combination of different drivers, among which upstream-induced water stress may play a role. Our findings contribute to better understanding of upstream-downstream dynamics in water stress to help address water allocation problems.

Water↗