Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 505 records · Page 28

Analysis of Terrestrial Interference Protection from UAS CNPC Satellite Transmitters

Unmanned aircraft (UA) are projected to have a major impact on future aviation. Larger UA operating at altitudes above 3000 feet will require at least occasional access to non-segregated, that is, controlled airspace. In order for unmanned aircraft to be integrated into the airspace and operate with other commercial aircraft, a very reliable command and control (a. k. a. control and non-payload communications, (CNPC)) link is required. For operations covering large distances or over remote locations, a beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) CNPC link implemented through a satellite will almost always be required. Protected aviation spectrum (aeronautical mobile satellite (route) service, or AMS(R)S) would normally be used for such a safety-critical link, however studies have shown that currently available aviation safety satellite spectrum is inadequate to support the projected BLOS CNPC link bandwidth requirements. To address this inadequacy, the 2015 World Radio communication Conference studied the possible use of the Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) to provide CNPC, including possible allocations in Ku-Band and Ka-Band, under Agenda Item (AI) 1.5. Although UA CNPC satellite links in these bands were shown to meet operational availability and continuity requirements, a serious complication exists in that there are also terrestrial service allocations in these bands, in particular, Fixed Service (FS) point-to-point and point-to-multipoint microwave digital links. During the WRC-15 study cycle, much opposition to AI 1.5 was generated based on fears that UA CNPC satellite transmitters in these bands would impose unacceptable levels of interference to the FS receivers. NASA analyzed the possible interference from the UA transmitters based on probable UA transmission and FS receiver characteristics, and UA traffic distributions and densities to determine conditions under which UA could operate without imposing unacceptable interference levels to the FS. Ultimately, UA power flux density transmission limits were proposed as a way to insure protection of FS receivers and further studies were prepared on the various proposals. This paper presents the results of these studies and discusses possible implications on future UA BLOS operations.

aircraft communications↗

Investigation of Transient Gas Phase Column Density Due to Droplet Evaporation

Analytical expressions are developed for estimating column density near a rapidly evaporating droplet along general paths. The influence for instantaneous evaporation is created first as a limiting case, where the peak value occurs at the time it takes a wave of vapor to reach the closest point along the optical path traveling at its most probable thermal speed. Next the case for finite-period evaporation is evaluated for constant conditions. Compared to the instantaneous case, peak column density occurs shortly after droplet extinction at a lower intensity. A new mathematical function is discovered that solves the integrals associated with this case. Finally, ways to account for droplet motion and changes in evaporation rate with size and temperature are discussed.

transient↗

Investigation of Transient Gas Phase Column Density Due to Droplet Evaporation

Analytical expressions are developed for estimating column density near a rapidly evaporating droplet along general paths. The influence for instantaneous evaporation is created first as a limiting case, where the peak value occurs at the time it takes a wave of vapor to reach the closest point along the optical path traveling at its most probable thermal speed. Next the case for finite-period evaporation is evaluated for constant conditions. Compared to the instantaneous case, peak column density occurs shortly after droplet extinction at a lower intensity. A new mathematical function is discovered that solves the integrals associated with this case. Finally, ways to account for droplet motion and changes in evaporation rate with size and temperature are discussed.

Column Density↗

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Kerstman, Eric↗

The effect of attention loading on the inhibition of choice reaction time to visual motion by concurrent rotary motion

This study investigates the influence of attention loading on the established intersensory effects of passive bodily rotation on choice reaction time (RT) to visual motion. Subjects sat at the center of rotation in an enclosed rotating chamber and observed an oscilloscope on which were, in the center, a tracking display and, 10 deg left of center, a RT line. Three tracking tasks and a no-tracking control condition were presented to all subjects in combination with the RT task, which occurred with and without concurrent cab rotations. Choice RT to line motions was inhibited (probability less than .001) both when there was simultaneous vestibular stimulation and when there was a tracking task; response latencies lengthened progressively with increased similarity between the RT and tracking tasks. However, the attention conditions did not affect the intersensory effect; the significance of this for the nature of the sensory interaction is discussed.

Looper, M.↗

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

Tuning Monotonic Basin Hopping: Improving the Efficiency of Stochastic Search as Applied to Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization

Trajectory optimization methods using MBH have become well developed during the past decade. An essential component of MBH is a controlled random search through the multi-dimensional space of possible solutions. Historically, the randomness has been generated by drawing RVs from a uniform probability distribution. Here, we investigate the generating the randomness by drawing the RVs from Cauchy and Pareto distributions, chosen because of their characteristic long tails. We demonstrate that using Cauchy distributions (as first suggested by Englander significantly improves MBH performance, and that Pareto distributions provide even greater improvements. Improved performance is defined in terms of efficiency and robustness, where efficiency is finding better solutions in less time, and robustness is efficiency that is undiminished by (a) the boundary conditions and internal constraints of the optimization problem being solved, and (b) by variations in the parameters of the probability distribution. Robustness is important for achieving performance improvements that are not problem specific. In this work we show that the performance improvements are the result of how these long-tailed distributions enable MBH to search the solution space faster and more thoroughly. In developing this explanation, we use the concepts of sub-diffusive, normally-diffusive, and super-diffusive RWs originally developed in the field of statistical physics.

mission design↗

Tuning Monotonic Basin Hopping: Improving the Efficiency of Stochastic Search as Applied to Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization

Trajectory optimization methods using monotonic basin hopping (MBH) have become well developed during the past decade [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. An essential component of MBH is a controlled random search through the multi-dimensional space of possible solutions. Historically, the randomness has been generated by drawing random variable (RV)s from a uniform probability distribution. Here, we investigate the generating the randomness by drawing the RVs from Cauchy and Pareto distributions, chosen because of their characteristic long tails. We demonstrate that using Cauchy distributions (as first suggested by J. Englander [3, 6]) significantly improves monotonic basin hopping (MBH) performance, and that Pareto distributions provide even greater improvements. Improved performance is defined in terms of efficiency and robustness. Efficiency is finding better solutions in less time. Robustness is efficiency that is undiminished by (a) the boundary conditions and internal constraints of the optimization problem being solved, and (b) by variations in the parameters of the probability distribution. Robustness is important for achieving performance improvements that are not problem specific. In this work we show that the performance improvements are the result of how these long-tailed distributions enable MBH to search the solution space faster and more thoroughly. In developing this explanation, we use the concepts of sub-diffusive, normally-diffusive, and super-diffusive random walks (RWs) originally developed in the field of statistical physics.

autonomous↗

Supplementary Data on Airspeeds and Mach Numbers Attained by Lockheed Constellation Airplanes in Transcontinental Operations

A total of 197 hours of time histories of airspeed and altitude have been obtained on Lockheed Constellation airplanes flying between New York, N.Y. and San Francisco, Calif. during May 1946 and June 1946. Data for 130 hours were previously analyzed to determine the probability of attaining excessive airspeeds and Mach numbers and the results have been published. After the publication, data for additional 67 hours became available. All the data were obtained at altitudes less than 20,000 feet and under approximately the same conditions. The combined data have been analyzed to obtain the results given in the tables and figures contained herein. Based on the combined data, the probability of exceeding a given airspeed or Mach number is of the same order of magnitude as that given. The conclusions are, therefore, unchanged.

Steiner, Roy↗

The color of meteoritic hibonite - An indicator of oxygen fugacity

Hibonites similar in composition to those found in Ca-Al-rich inclusions change color from blue, to green, to orange, to nearly colorless as oxygen fugacity is increased at high temperature from below the iron-wustite buffer up to air. The development of the blue color is correlated with the growth of an absorption band at 715 nm in the optical spectra of the hibonites as the oxygen fugacity is reduced. The growth of this band is attributed to the increasing concentration of Ti(3+) in these hibonites with decreasing oxygen fugacity. The blue hibonites in meteorites reflect equilibration under reducing conditions based on the intensity of 715 nm band, it is estimated that the hibonite in the Blue Angel inclusion indicates an oxygen fugacity four to five orders of magnitude more oxidizing than that expected in the early solar nebula. This may be due to formation in an anomalously oxidizing region of the nebula or to oxidation during cooling or later alteration. The orange hibonites in Allende reflect oxygen fugacities approximately ten or more orders of magnitude more oxidizing than the expected primitive nebula; this color probably indicates alteration of initially more reduced (blue?) hibonites. The colorless hibonite in the HAL inclusion reflects highly oxidizing conditions and/or its low Ti content.

Ihinger, P. D.↗

Ground testing at MSFC

The large-scale field collection of acoustic data and their analysis are described in this review. The entire sound-field program has the purpose of solving complex problems of excessive noise propagation associated with the static test firing of large space-booster powerplants. The site of data collection has been Mississippi Test Facility (MTF), where far-field sound-propagation and correlated meteorological measurements were initiated in 1962. The statistical evaluation of sound-measurement data shows that the polar distribution of sound in the springtime (at MTF) is determined mainly by the temperature field of the atmosphere. Greater deformation of sound-intensity polar distribution occurs in the autumn as a result of the influence of the wind field. The data on sound attenuation as a function of distance from its source revealed attenuation in excess of the expected magnitude. The excess was mainly between 1 and 10 kilometers from the source, with maximum attenuation (17 to 18 decibels) near 6 kilometers. Excess sound attenuation was compared with calculated sound dispersion. For all sound frequencies in all seasons the deviation between reference and empirical attenuation values formed a bell-shaped distribution on a semilogarithmic plot. The physical causes for the sound- attenuation behavior are considered to be atmospheric diffraction and scattering effects. Statistical analysis of sod-intensity extremes indicated amplification of the sound signals by focusing which could be expected along selected azimuths. Empirical amplification values showed the maximum occurring in winter (50 decibels at 22 kilometers). For the analysis of correlation between empirical sound data and local atmospheric sound- propagation conditions, #e concept of analytical classification of sound-velocity profiles has been developed. Examination of over a quarter-million individual sound-velocity profiles indicates that 33 profile types for heights up to 3 kilometers constitute the empirical possibilities of sound-propagation conditions in southeastern United States. Since the focusing qualities of each sound- velocity profile can be determined as a class characteristic, the overall probabilities of focusing occurrence can he obtained. The severity of focusing, as based upon lateral spread of focusing areas, has been determined. The data for MTF indicate focusing is most severe in winter, with the direction toward east being most affected. Sound propagation is a fluctuating phenomenon because atmospheric conditions vary continuously. A measuring system for analyzing the nonstationary sound-propagation phenomena has been established. The analysis of the acoustic fluctuation data is sup- posed to provide "dynamic” perturbation functions of sound, which are to be superimposed on the related characteristic sound-velocity-profile type. The ultimate result of the program will be the establishment of reliable contingency tables showing the relationship between atmospheric parameters and far-field sound intensities. These data will be the basis for more accurate sound-propagation forecasting for static firing tests.

STATIC TESTING↗

Quantum-Classical Hybrid for Information Processing

Based upon quantum-inspired entanglement in quantum-classical hybrids, a simple algorithm for instantaneous transmissions of non-intentional messages (chosen at random) to remote distances is proposed. The idea is to implement instantaneous transmission of conditional information on remote distances via a quantum-classical hybrid that preserves superposition of random solutions, while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. Such a hybrid system reinforces the advantages, and minimizes the limitations, of both quantum and classical characteristics. Consider n observers, and assume that each of them gets a copy of the system and runs it separately. Although they run identical systems, the outcomes of even synchronized runs may be different because the solutions of these systems are random. However, the global constrain must be satisfied. Therefore, if the observer #1 (the sender) made a measurement of the acceleration v(sub 1) at t =T, then the receiver, by measuring the corresponding acceleration v(sub 1) at t =T, may get a wrong value because the accelerations are random, and only their ratios are deterministic. Obviously, the transmission of this knowledge is instantaneous as soon as the measurements have been performed. In addition to that, the distance between the observers is irrelevant because the x-coordinate does not enter the governing equations. However, the Shannon information transmitted is zero. None of the senders can control the outcomes of their measurements because they are random. The senders cannot transmit intentional messages. Nevertheless, based on the transmitted knowledge, they can coordinate their actions based on conditional information. If the observer #1 knows his own measurements, the measurements of the others can be fully determined. It is important to emphasize that the origin of entanglement of all the observers is the joint probability density that couples their actions. There is no centralized source, or a sender of the signal, because each receiver can become a sender as well. An observer receives a signal by performing certain measurements synchronized with the measurements of the others. This means that the signal is uniformly and simultaneously distributed over the observers in a decentralized way. The signals transmit no intentional information that would favor one agent over another. All the sequence of signals received by different observers are not only statistically equivalent, but are also point-by-point identical. It is important to assume that each agent knows that the other agent simultaneously receives the identical signals. The sequences of the signals are true random, so that no agent could predict the next step with the probability different from those described by the density. Under these quite general assumptions, the entangled observers-agents can perform non-trivial tasks that include transmission of conditional information from one agent to another, simple paradigm of cooperation, etc. The problem of behavior of intelligent agents correlated by identical random messages in a decentralized way has its own significance: it simulates evolutionary behavior of biological and social systems correlated only via simultaneous sensoring sequences of unexpected events.

Zak, Michail↗

Some Abort Techniques and Procedures for Manned Spacecraft

This paper is concerned with our present state of knowledge on the procedures and effectiveness of aborts from manned orbital and lunar missions. By abort is meant a deliberate or unintentional termination of the primary mission followed by an expedient return to earth of the payload (spacecraft and crew). A deliberate abort may be initiated if a critical component failed and thus impaired the probability of mission success or the crew's safety. Examples of this kind of abort are failure of the launch guidance system or the oxygen and cabin pressure system. Also, an unintentional abort may occur during the launch phase due to the complete or partial failure of one of the launch-vehicle stages to operate. For each mission every conceivable set of circumstances must be considered and evaluated to see if an abort of the mission is called for and to determine what sequence of events should occur to bring the spacecraft and crew safely back to earth with the highest probability of success. Factors which must be considered are: how to specify and sense an abort condition, how much fuel should be put onboard the vehicle for abort purposes, what size and kind of rocket engines are best suited for each mission, and what compromise is incurred due to other mission requirements? If an abort occurs, the optimum time of application as well as the magnitude and direction of the velocity changes must be determined beforehand and the crew must be clearly informed of what action is required or what the situation is so that they can decide the proper action.

Maneuver↗

Millimeter wave space communications - Recent experimental results and present development programs.

Major results of millimeter wave propagation measurements conducted with the ATS-5 satellite are reviewed, and their impact on the design of operational millimeter wave communications systems is evaluated. Statistical results show attenuation probabilities in different localities at various intervals of observation in an attempt at correlation with precipitation conditions. Advanced millimeter wave propagation experiments currently under development for the ATS-F satellite are also discussed.

Ippolito, L. J.↗

Structural analysis of vibroacoustical processes

The method of automatic identification of acoustical signals, by means of the segmentation was used to investigate noises and vibrations in machines and mechanisms, for cybernetic diagnostics. The structural analysis consists of presentation of a noise or vibroacoustical signal as a sequence of segments, determined by the time quantization, in which each segment is characterized by specific spectral characteristics. The structural spectrum is plotted as a histogram of the segments, also as a relation of the probability density of appearance of a segment to the segment type. It is assumed that the conditions of ergodic processes are maintained.

Gromov, A. P.↗

On the determination of atmospheric path length by passive microwave radiometer

Microwave radiometer techniques were evaluated for use in atmospheric path length correction of Pacific Plate Motion Experiment interferometer measurements. It is shown that passive microwave radiometry allows precise measurement of the brightness temperature of the sky. It is also noted that the technological requirements of radiometers are very different from the requirements of radio astronomy. The technology was used in the construction of radiometers which are sufficient for use in the path length correction problem. A simulation study shows that, when combined with surface meteorology data, passive microwave radiometer data would allow a determination of the path length correction to better than 2 cm at the zenith. By a careful choice of frequencies, a dual frequency system would allow a measurement of the path length correction to better than 4 cm at zenith angles as great as 60 deg. Because of the wide range of weather conditions to be expected for the PPME sites (which include Alaska, Hawaii and Massachusetts), it will probably be necessary to use a separate correction algorithm for each site.

Webster, W. J., Jr.↗

Analysis of internal flow of J85-13 multistage compressor

Interstage data recorded on a J85-13 engine were used to analyze the internal flow of the compressor. Measured pressures and temperatures were used as input to a streamline analysis program to calculate the velocity diagrams at the inlet and outlet of each blade row. From the velocity diagrams and blade geometry, selected blade-element performance parameters were calculated. From the detailed analysis it is concluded that the compressor is probably hub critical (stall initiates at the hub) in the latter stages for the design speed conditions. As a result, the casing treatment over the blade tips has little or no effect on stall margin at design speed. Radial inlet distortion did not appear to change the flow in the stages that control stall because of the rapid attenuation of the distortion within the compressor.

Hager, R. D.↗

A multi-disciplinary approach to structural design for stochastic loads

The development of aircraft gust design techniques is reviewed with emphasis on those techniques applicable to large scale multidisciplinary closed-loop optimization methods. An overall view is presented of the optimization methodology utilized. An analysis is presented wherein the bivariate normal distribution function for a particular loading condition is considered. By use of maximization techniques, functions are derived for stress components along equal probability contours which allow for directionality and auto-correlation effects to be considered. These functions are then applied to the problem being considered and the effects on the structural sizing and weight penalties evaluated against more conventional methods.

Gross, D. W.↗