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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 505 records · Page 28
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

AOI 3 Life Modelling of Critical Steam Cycle Components in Coal-Fueled Power Plants

Microstructural damage accumulation models have been used to produce calibrated life estimation models for a DR22/P22 steel wye-block welds, and a Jethete stainless steel turbine blade (bucket). The calibrated life estimation models will aid the power plant operator in determining optimal maintenance and operation schedules based upon historical operational data as well as current, or future operation schemes. The impact of this project will enable existing coal-fueled power plants to operate safely for longer periods of time and at higher efficiencies, thereby reducing the economic and environmental impact of the existing coal power plant fleet. Testing, characterization, and modelling indicates that the operating life of P22 pipelines and their welds are dominated by fatigue damage mechanisms. Specifically, fatigue is of no concern in these materials when operating under realistic conditions manifesting in the main steam piping of coal-fueled power plants. However, if a low-temperature overload ever occurs during operation, fatigue will manifest as a damage mechanism of interest. Primary impact provided by the completion of this work is in the manifestation of a detailed ABAQUS solid model providing accurate boundary conditions to enable the prediction of operational stresses and strains. The completed plant solid model, in conjunction with the calibrated fatigue and creep life models provide definitive confirmation that creep is the dominant damage mechanism during operational conditions. Jethete life modelling has been completed by the manifestation of a material-specific, and temperature-specific, Kitagowa diagram. The Kitagowa diagram provides maintenance and operation decision making with scientifically-based go/no-go support based upon the crack-like features that have been identified by use of inspection.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

A direct detection method of galaxy intrinsic ellipticity-gravitational shear correlation in non-linear regimes using self-calibration

Intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies is a challenging source of contamination in the Cosmic shear (GG) signals. The galaxy intrinsic ellipticity-gravitational shear (IG) correlation is generally the most dominant component of such contamination for cross-correlating redshift bins. One of the most effective techniques to mitigate such contamination is the self-calibration (SC) method which extracts the IG correlation and allows for its removal from the GG signal. In a photometric survey, the SC method first extracts the galaxy number density-galaxy intrinsic ellipticity (gI) correlation from the observed galaxy-galaxy lensing correlation using the redshift dependence of lens-source pairs. The IG correlation is computed through a scaling relation using the gI correlation and other lensing observables. The applicability of the SC method has so far been focused on the linear IA scales and the linear galaxy bias. We extend the SC method beyond the linear regime by modifying its scaling relation which can account for the non-linear galaxy bias model and various IA models. In this study, we provide a framework to detect the IG correlation for the redshift bins for source galaxies for the proposed year 1 survey of the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST Y1). We tested the method for the tidal alignment and tidal torquing (TATT) model of IA and we found that the scaling relation is accurate within 10% and 20% for cross-correlating and auto-correlating redshift bins, respectively. Hence the suppression of IG contamination in observed GG correlation can be accomplished with a factor of 10 and 5, for cross-correlating and auto-correlating redshift bins, respectively. We tested the method's robustness and found that the suppression of IG contamination by a factor of 5 is still achievable for all combinations of cross-correlating bins even with the inclusion of a moderate amount of uncertainties on IA and bias parameters, respectively. We also make available, a branch of the code FAST-PT to provide gI correlations up to 1-loop order term used by the new SC method.

gravitational lensing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Holistic Numerical Calibration of the iMESA Electrostatic Analyzer

A drifted Maxwellian velocity distribution is the most common model used to interpret the data from low-energy charged-particle instruments onboard spacecraft that are used to investigate the ambient plasma environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). An original method is presented for determining the flow parameters (density, temperature, and flow energy) of such a distribution from the output of the integrated miniaturized electrostatic analyzer, which has been successfully flown on several LEO missions. Rather than attempting to deconvolve from the on-orbit data the analyzer’s response to an ideal, monoenergetic input, numerical simulation is used to predict and parameterize the response of the device to an input distribution that includes an isotropic, non-zero temperature, yielding a straightforward method for extracting the flow parameters from the spacecraft data. The method is computationally simple enough to be incorporated into a robust algorithm suitable for rapid batch processing or real-time analysis of data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generating multi-scale Li-ion battery cathode particles with radial grain architectures using stereological generative adversarial networks

Abstract Understanding structure-property relationships of Li-ion battery cathodes is crucial for optimizing rate-performance and cycle-life resilience. However, correlating the morphology of cathode particles, such as in LiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2 (NMC811), and their inner grain architecture with electrode performance is challenging, particularly, due to the significant length-scale difference between grain and particle sizes. Experimentally, it is not feasible to image such a high number of particles with full granular detail. A second challenge is that sufficiently high-resolution 3D imaging techniques remain expensive and are sparsely available at research institutions. Here, we present a stereological generative adversarial network-based model fitting approach to tackle this, that generates representative 3D information from 2D data, enabling characterization of materials in 3D using cost-effective 2D data. Once calibrated, this multi-scale model can rapidly generate virtual cathode particles that are statistically similar to experimental data, and thus is suitable for virtual characterization and materials testing through numerical simulations. A large dataset of simulated particles with inner grain architecture has been made publicly available.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiphysics Simulation of the NASA SIRIUS-CAL Fuel Experiment in the Transient Test Reactor Using Griffin

After approximately 50 years, NASA is restarting efforts to develop nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) for interplanetary missions. Building upon nuclear engine tests performed from the late 1950s to the early 1970s, the present research and testing focuses on advanced materials and fabrication methods. A number of transient tests have been performed to evaluate materials performance under high-temperature, high-flux conditions, with several more experiments in the pipeline for future testing. The measured data obtained from those tests are being used to validate the Griffin reactor multiphysics code for this particular type of application. Griffin was developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using the MOOSE framework. This article describes the simulation results of the SIRIUS-CAL calibration experiment in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT). SIRIUS-CAL was the first transient test conducted on NASA fuels, and although the test was performed with a relatively low core peak power, the test specimen survived a temperature exceeding 900 K. Griffin simulations of the experiment successfully matched the reactor’s power transient after calibrating the initial control rod position to match the initial reactor period. The thermal-hydraulics model largely matches the time-dependent response of a thermocouple located within the experiment specimen to within the uncertainty estimate. However, the uncertainty range is significant and must be reduced in the future.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of system thermal-hydraulics code using critical flow experimental data

The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology in nuclear system thermal-hydraulic studies necessitates a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties in system code predictions. The forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) process involves the propagation of input uncertainties through the computational models to obtain uncertainties in the outputs. To this end, achieving an accurate estimation of input uncertainties is important, which is the focus of inverse UQ (IUQ). Traditionally, research in Bayesian IUQ within the nuclear engineering domain has largely relied on single-level Bayesian inference. While being effective for relatively small datasets, this approach encounters limitations for cases with large datasets. The use of a single-level model may prove inefficient, as the resultant posterior distributions can significantly differ when distinct subsets of data are employed. To address this issue, we employ an hierarchical Bayesian model for IUQ. Furthermore, this approach involves organizing observations into different groups based on the test conditions, thereby accommodating varying calibration parameters across these distinct groups. In this study, we developed and implemented a hierarchical Bayesian IUQ method to consider the grouping effect of critical flow measurement data from various geometries. Comparing the outcomes of IUQ under different selections of test data using hierarchical Bayesian IUQ against those obtained from single-level Bayesian IUQ, the forward propagation of hierarchical Bayesian IUQ results demonstrates a notably improved agreement with the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Circular Collider Feasibility Study Report

Volume 1 of the FCC Feasibility Report presents an overview of the physics case, experimental programme, and detector concepts for the Future Circular Collider (FCC). This volume outlines how FCC would address some of the most profound open questions in particle physics, from precision studies of the Higgs and EW bosons and of the top quark, to the exploration of physics beyond the Standard Model. The report reviews the experimental opportunities offered by the staged implementation of FCC, beginning with an electron-positron collider (FCC-ee), operating at several centre-of-mass energies, followed by a hadron collider (FCC-hh). Benchmark examples are given of the expected physics performance, in terms of precision and sensitivity to new phenomena, of each collider stage. Detector requirements and conceptual designs for FCC-ee experiments are discussed, as are the specific demands that the physics programme imposes on the accelerator in the domains of the calibration of the collision energy, and the interface region between the accelerator and the detector. The report also highlights advances in detector, software and computing technologies, as well as the theoretical tools/reconstruction techniques that will enable the precision measurements and discovery potential of the FCC experimental programme. The content and structure of this report are guided by the scope and priorities defined in the mandate of the FCC Feasibility Study. It is therefore not intended to serve as an exhaustive review of the full physics potential of FCC. Several topics, already covered in earlier reports such as the FCC CDR, are not reiterated here or are addressed only briefly, in alignment with the study’s focus. This volume reflects the outcome of a global collaborative effort involving hundreds of scientists and institutions, aided by a dedicated community-building coordination, and provides a targeted assessment of the scientific opportunities and experimental foundations of the FCC programme.

Benedikt, M. [European Organization for Nuclear Re↗
DOE OSTI2024

Core Model Proposal #399: Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)

This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3.0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (e.g., multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep reinforcement learning control for co-optimizing energy consumption, thermal comfort, and indoor air quality in an office building

With the recent demand for decarbonization and energy efficiency, advanced HVAC control using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) becomes a promising solution. Due to its flexible structures, DRL has been successful in energy reduction for many HVAC systems. However, only a few researches applied DRL agents to manage the entire central HVAC system and control multiple components in both the water loop and the air loop, owing to its complex system structures. Moreover, those researches have not extended their applications by incorporating the indoor air quality, especially both CO2 and PM2.5concentrations, on top of energy saving and thermal comfort, as achieving those objectives simultaneously can cause multiple control conflicts. What's more, DRL agents are usually trained on the simulation environment before deployment, so another challenge is to develop an accurate but relatively simple simulator. Therefore, we propose a DRL algorithm for a central HVAC system to co-optimize energy consumption, thermal comfort, indoor CO2 level, and indoor PM2.5 level in an office building. To train the controller, we also developed a hybrid simulator that decoupled the complex system into multiple simulation models, which are calibrated separately using laboratory test data. The hybrid simulator combined the dynamics of the HVAC system, the building envelope, as well as moisture, CO2, and particulate matter transfer. Three control algorithms (rule-based, MPC, and DRL) are developed, and their performances are evaluated on the hybrid simulator environment with a realistic scenario (i.e., with stochastic noises). The test results showed that, the DRL controller can save 21.4 % of energy compared to a rule-based controller, and has improved thermal comfort, reduced indoor CO2 concentration. The MPC controller showed an 18.6 % energy saving compared to the DRL controller, mainly due to savings from comfort and indoor air quality boundary violations caused by unmeasured disturbances, and it also highlights computational challenges in real-time control due to non-linear optimization. Finally, we provide the practical considerations for designing and implementing the DRL and MPC controllers based on their respective pros and cons.

Guo, Fangzhou↗
DOE OSTI2025

Establishing a process-structure-property-performance framework for SLS additive manufacturing through integrated multiscale modeling

This study presents a comprehensive suite of high-fidelity computational models that integrate multiscale and multiphysics simulations to capture the full Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) additive manufacturing process—from initial melting and solidification to mechanical response under external loads. Process simulations are linked with mechanical analysis through Representative Volume Elements (RVEs), establishing a process-structure–property-performance framework. The interaction between laser light and polyamide 12 (PA12) powder is modeled, accounting for laser characteristics and the optical, thermal, and geometrical properties of the powder. The heat source is incorporated into a heat transfer model, coupled with crystallization kinetics and densification models to predict material density and crystallinity. The porosity distribution from the densification model and crystallinity interpolated from experimental data are used to construct the RVEs. A multi-mechanism constitutive model is then calibrated using mechanical tests to predict the stress–strain response. Simulation results show good agreement with experimental data in terms of porosity, crystallinity, and mechanical performance when sufficient laser power (62 W or higher) is used. This research supports the inverse design of 3D-printed structures by introducing a high-fidelity framework that combines multiscale and multiphysics modeling with experimental calibration for predictive and performance-driven additive manufacturing.

SLS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An open source analysis framework for large-scale building energy modeling

Full integration of building energy modelling into the design and retrofit process has long been a goal of building scientists and practitioners. However, significant barriers still exist. Among them are the lack of available: (1) configurable technology stacks for performing both small- and large-scale analyses, (2) different classes of algorithms compatible with common design workflows, and (3) analysis tools for effectively visualizing large-scale simulation results. This article discusses the OpenStudio® Analysis Framework: a scalable analysis framework for building energy modelling that was developed to overcome the three barriers listed above. The framework is open-source and scalable to facilitate wider adoption and has a clearly defined application programming interface upon which other applications can be built. It runs on high-performance computing systems, within cloud infrastructure, and on laptops, and uses a common workflow to enable different classes of algorithms. Lessons learned from previous development efforts are also discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

One‐at‐a‐Time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land Model, Version 5.1

Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.

Kennedy, Daniel [NSF National Center for Atmospher↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flame acceleration and transition to detonation in a pre-/main-chamber combustion system

Numerical simulations are performed to study the mechanism of deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) in a pre-/main-chamber combustion system with a stoichiometric ethylene–oxygen mixture. A Godunov algorithm, fifth-order in space, and third-order in time, is used to solve the fully compressible Navier–Stokes equations on a dynamically adapting mesh. A single-step, calibrated chemical diffusive model described by Arrhenius kinetics is used for energy release and conservation between the fuel and the product. The two-dimensional simulation shows that a laminar flame grows in the pre-chamber and then develops into a jet flame as it passes through the orifice. A strong shock forms immediately ahead of the flame, reflecting off the walls and interacting with the flame front. The shock–flame interactions are crucial for the development of flame instabilities, which trigger the subsequent flame development. The DDT arises due to a shock-focusing mechanism, where multiple shocks collide at the flame front. A chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) criterion is developed to study the DDT ignition mode. Preliminary one-dimensional computations for a laminar propagating flame, a fast flame deflagration, and a Chapman–Jouguet detonation are conducted to demonstrate the validity of CEMA on the chemical-diffusive model, as well as to determine the proper conditioning value for CEMA diagnostic. The two-dimensional analysis with CEMA indicates that the DDT initiated by the shock-focusing mechanism can form a strong thermal expansion region at the flame front that features large positive eigenvalues for the chemical explosive mode and dominance of the local autoignition mode. Thus, the CEMA criterion proposed in this study provides a robust diagnostic for identifying autoignition-supported DDT, of which the emergence of excessive local autoignition mode is found to be a precursor. The effect of grid size, initial temperature, and orifice size are then evaluated, and results show that although the close-chamber DDT is highly stochastic, the detonation initiation mechanism remains robust.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗