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At least 505 records · Page 28

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina’s sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina’s agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina’s river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate policy models need to get real about people — here’s how

Here, to predict how society and political systems might actually respond to warming, upgrade integrated assessment models. Political support for decarbonizing the global economy is at an all-time high. The good news is that about two-thirds of carbon emissions come from countries that have committed to reach ‘net zero’ by mid-century — they aim to cut their greenhouse-gas outputs and capture as much as they emit. The bad news? The computer models that analysts use to assess routes to achieve such goals are missing a crucial factor: politics.

Peng, Wei↗

Development of a micro-combined heat and power powered by an opposed-piston engine in building applications

Residential homes and light commercial buildings usually require substantial heat and electricity simultaneously. A combined heat and power system enables more efficient and environmentally friendly energy usage than that achieved when heat and electricity are produced in separate processes. However, due to financial and space constraints, residential and light commercial buildings often limit the use of traditional large-scale industrial equipment. Here we develop a micro–combined heat and power system powered by an opposed-piston engine to simultaneously generate electricity and provide heat to residential homes or light commercial buildings. The developed prototype attains the maximum AC electrical efficiency of 35.2%. The electrical efficiency breaks the typical upper boundary of 30% for micro–combined heat and power systems using small internal combustion engines (i.e., <10 kW). Moreover, the developed prototype enables maximum combined electrical and thermal efficiencies greater than 93%. The prototype is optimally designed for natural gas but can also run renewable biogas and hydrogen, supporting the transition from current conventional fossil fuels to zero carbon emissions in the future. The analysis of the unit’s decarbonization and cost-saving potential indicate that, except for specific locations, the developed prototype might excel in achieving decarbonization and cost savings primarily in US northern and middle climate zones.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Polyketide synthase-based controlled synthesis of polycyclopropanated fuel molecules

Reducing carbon emissions from aviation and long-distance transportation sectors requires the development of sustainable biofuels with suitable energy density, freezing point, and other physical properties. We previously demonstrated biological production of high energy polycyclopropanated fatty acids (POP-FAs, class I) using an iterative polyketide synthase (iPKS) pathway in a Streptomyces host. Here, we used a computational model of fuel properties to identify chain length and cyclopropanation control as critical steps to engineer this iPKS for biofuel applications. We next explored the natural diversity of POP biosynthesis by investigating homologous pathways. Then, by in vivo gene exchange, we determined cyclopropanase (CP) catalysis to be key for POP-FA engineering. Leveraging both natural and engineered pathway product diversity, we demonstrate targeted production of improved POP-FAs, namely shortened POP-FAs with predicted superior freezing point properties for aviation, as well as fully cyclopropane-saturated POP-FAs which should have superior energy-density. These precise and controllable modifications to POP-FA structure open the door for bioproduction of designer POP fuels.

Yin, Kevin↗

Iron as a driver of organic carbon fate in permafrost regions

Iron (Fe) and its biogeochemical interactions with organic carbon (OC) exert critical controls over carbon storage and water quality across Arctic and sub-Arctic landscapes. Permafrost thaw affects Fe–organic carbon interactions by exposing thawed material and driving shifts in hydrologic regimes. Here we propose a conceptual framework describing how Fe–OC interactions respond to permafrost thaw and the implications for global carbon cycling. The framework builds on current understanding of hydrologically driven processes that are altered by permafrost thaw, including microbial Fe reduction that influences OC decomposition and carbon emissions; Fe cycling through redox transformations and sulfide oxidation; dissolution and reprecipitation of Fe–OC assemblages; and Fe export to river networks. We put forward four testable hypotheses—on topics from Fe supply to its role in soil OC storage and transfer to rivers—to advance understanding of the coupled environmental controls on pore-scale reactions (that is, microscale reactions at mineral–water–microorganism interfaces) that are central to global Fe–OC cycling. Our framework highlights how soil-profile- and landscape-scale processes, such as hydrologic connectivity and redox dynamics, regulate pore-scale Fe–OC reactions.

Herndon, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291945493)↗

A three-year dataset supporting research on building energy management and occupancy analytics

Abstract This paper presents the curation of a monitored dataset from an office building constructed in 2015 in Berkeley, California. The dataset includes whole-building and end-use energy consumption, HVAC system operating conditions, indoor and outdoor environmental parameters, as well as occupant counts. The data were collected during a period of three years from more than 300 sensors and meters on two office floors (each 2,325 m 2 ) of the building. A three-step data curation strategy is applied to transform the raw data into research-grade data: (1) cleaning the raw data to detect and adjust the outlier values and fill the data gaps; (2) creating the metadata model of the building systems and data points using the Brick schema; and (3) representing the metadata of the dataset using a semantic JSON schema. This dataset can be used in various applications—building energy benchmarking, load shape analysis, energy prediction, occupancy prediction and analytics, and HVAC controls—to improve the understanding and efficiency of building operations for reducing energy use, energy costs, and carbon emissions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The hidden costs of concealing outdoor air conditioning units

The beautification of urban facades in China often includes covers for the outdoor units of air conditioners. Although these covers improve cityscapes, they reduce cooling efficiency, increase noise pollution, risk system failures and embody carbon emissions. A call urges rethinking their necessity, and presses for sustainable, efficient design to counteract extreme heat.

Wang, Wei↗

Ultrafast materials synthesis and manufacturing techniques for emerging energy and environmental applications

Energy and environmental issues have attracted increasing attention globally, where sustainability and low-carbon emissions are seriously considered and widely accepted by government officials. In response to this situation, the development of renewable energy and environmental technologies is urgently needed to complement the usage of traditional fossil fuels. While a big part of advancement in these technologies relies on materials innovations, new materials discovery is limited by sluggish conventional materials synthesis methods, greatly hindering the advancement of related technologies. To address this issue, this review introduces and comprehensively summarizes emerging ultrafast materials synthesis methods that could synthesize materials in times as short as nanoseconds, significantly improving research efficiency. We discuss the unique advantages of these methods, followed by how they benefit individual applications for renewable energy and the environment. We also highlight the scalability of ultrafast manufacturing towards their potential industrial utilization. Finally, we provide our perspectives on challenges and opportunities for the future development of ultrafast synthesis and manufacturing technologies. Here, we anticipate that fertile opportunities exist not only for energy and the environment but also for many other applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

In situ formed catalysts for active, durable, and thermally stable ammonia protonic ceramic fuel cells at 550 °C

Ammonia protonic ceramic fuel cells (NH 3 -PCFCs) are promising and attractive energy-conversion devices owing to their high energy density, zero-carbon emission, and safety. The development of NH 3 -PCFCs, however, depends largely on the insufficient activity and poor durability of typical Ni-based anodes for ammonia decomposition, especially at low temperatures such as 550 °C. Herein, we report a self-assembled heterostructured Ru 0.95 Cu 0.05 Ni x (RCN) catalyst obtained through an in situ reaction between the surface-decorated Ru 0.95 Cu 0.05 nanoparticles and the Ni grain in the anode under typical processing conditions. At 550 °C, Ni–BaZr 0.1 Ce 0.7 Y 0.1 Yb 0.1 O 3 anode-supported PCFCs with RCN catalysts exhibit a high peak power density of 0.732 W cm -2 and a significantly enhanced durability of 100 h in NH 3 . Moreover, the cells demonstrate improved thermal stability compared with the bare cell during a 31-cycle thermal cycling test in NH 3 between 550 and 700 °C. In conclusion, the enhanced performance is likely attributed to the synergistic effects of Ru and Cu in RCN for NH 3 decomposition, resulting in a more vital interaction of NH 3 than that of the bare anode surfaces, as confirmed by NH 3 thermal conversion, electrochemical performance, and theoretical simulations.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Modeling diurnal and annual ethylene generation from solar-driven electrochemical CO 2 reduction devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards reducing carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimentally-determined CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. Here we simulated gaseous diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne per year at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhancing carbon dioxide capture under humid conditions by optimizing the pore surface structure

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) exhibit significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions due to their high porosity and tunability. Despite numerous reports on CO 2 capture by MOF sorbents, a common challenge is their poor selectivity for CO 2 over water. Moreover, in-depth studies are much needed to elucidate the relationships among the pore surface structure, hydrophobicity, and CO 2 uptake capacity/selectivity. In this work, we investigate the factors influencing CO 2 adsorption capacity and selectivity under humidity in a series of isoreticular pillar-layer structures, Ni 2 (L) 2 (dabco) (L = bdc, ndc, adc). Our study shows that increasing ligand conjugation not only results in increased hydrophobicity, decreased pore size and BET surface area, but also leads to the change of primary binding sites of water molecules and higher binding energy of CO 2 , all of which contribute to largely increased CO 2 uptake capacity under humid conditions. Additionally, increasing ligand conjugation and consequently hydrophobicity slow down and reduce competitive water adsorption drastically. Notably, the MOF made of ligand with the highest conjugation, Ni 2 (adc) 2 (dabco), exhibits significantly enhanced CO 2 adsorption in N 2 /CO 2 binary mixtures under relatively high humidity (50% RH), with an increase of ~31% and ~36% for the composition of 15/85 and 50/50, respectively, compared to dry conditions. An experimental FTIR study and DFT theoretical calculations confirm that H 2 O occupies different primary binding site in Ni 2 (bdc) 2 (dabco) and Ni 2 (adc) 2 (dabco), and under humid conditions a higher binding energy of CO 2 is achieved with preferential H 2 O/CO 2 co-adsorption in Ni 2 (adc) 2 (dabco), potentially creating additional adsorption sites for CO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mechanistic insights into CO 2 capture and electrochemical conversion in nonaqueous Na–CO 2 batteries

Developing efficient energy storage systems that capture and convert CO 2 is critical for mitigating carbon emissions. Here, we report a Na–CO 2 battery with ruthenium dioxide (RuO 2 ) cathode catalysts and propane-1,3-diamine (PDA) as an electrolyte additive to enhance CO 2 capture and conversion efficiency. The integration of CO 2 adsorption and electrochemical reduction facilitates activation of the inert CO 2 molecule and circumvents gas–solid–liquid ternary-phase reactions at the interface. We employed density functional theory (DFT) calculations to systematically unravel the reaction mechanisms and energetics governing CO 2 reduction, both with and without PDA. Our results reveal an energetically favorable pathway toward the formation of Na 2 CO 3 and C as final discharge products, rather than sodium oxalate (Na 2 C 2 O 4 ). The CO 2 –amine adduct facilitates charge transfer from PDA to CO 2 , which results in activation of CO 2 . The kinetics of CO 2 conversion and regeneration of PDA were found to be significantly enhanced on the RuO 2 surface compared to the bulk electrolyte. More importantly, pre-activation of CO 2 via the amine–CO 2 adduct lowers the total overpotential to 2.44 V, compared to 3.13 V without PDA. This study provides fundamental insights into CO 2 electroreduction in Na–CO 2 batteries and underscores the promise of electrolyte engineering for sustainable CO 2 utilization and high-performance energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Equitable Urban Electric Vehicle Charging: Feasibility and Benefits of Streetlight Charging in Kansas City Right-of-Way

With an increasing global emphasis on sustainability, electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in reducing urban pollution and carbon emissions. For EVs to be widely adopted, equitable and convenient access to charging infrastructure is essential. Equity in this paper refers to the proactive engagement with the community to ensure that the benefits of streetlight charging are distributed equitably across diverse neighborhoods in Kansas City, providing fair charging opportunities and resources to all community members. This research explores the potential of utilizing streetlights—ubiquitous elements of urban electrical infrastructure—as low-cost, equitable EV charging solutions. Compared with conventional chargers, streetlight charging offers several notable advantages, including proximity to roadways, potential boosts to the local economy, and easier usage due to city ownership. These chargers also leverage existing power setups to minimize costs and maximize efficiency by reutilizing existing structures. In this manuscript, we introduce a systematic framework to develop, analyze, and evaluate a scalable and cost-effective streetlight charging solution. Initially, we employ a two-tiered site selection framework that accounts for both charging demand and equity considerations to identify optimal locations for streetlight chargers. We then assess the feasibility of these chargers through observational data from 23 units installed in Kansas City, Missouri, comparing their performance with traditional chargers. Here, our evaluation extends to the environmental impact, comparing reduced gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions between streetlights and regular charging stations. Our findings reveal that streetlight charging stations offer faster charging speeds than conventional stations, validating their viability for EV charging. Additionally, the duration of stay at streetlight chargers tends to be shorter, likely due to parking constraints or associated costs. Furthermore, streetlight-powered chargers demonstrate considerable environmental advantages, achieving 11.94% greater avoided gasoline consumption and 11.24% higher GHG reductions compared with regular charging stations, highlighting their substantial environmental benefits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electrochemical Proton Insertion Modulates the Hydrogen Evolution Reaction on Tungsten Oxides

Development of new electrocatalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) could reduce dependence on Pt and other rare metals and enable large-scale production of hydrogen with near-zero carbon emissions. Mechanistic insight into the electrocatalytic activity of a material helps to accelerate the development of new electrocatalysts. Alternative electrocatalyst materials such as transition metal oxides and sulfides can undergo insertion reactions that change their properties. Recent reports indicate that the presence of inserted ions can influence electrocatalytic activity. In this work, we utilized a materials chemistry approach to understand the role of proton insertion on the HER activity of layered tungsten oxide hydrates (WO 3 ∙xH 2 O, x = 1, 2). We synthesized a series of tungsten oxide hydrates along with an octylamine-pillared tungsten oxide (OA-WO 3 ). We used cyclic voltammetry to study the electrochemical reactivity of each material and performed ex situ X-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy to understand bulk and surface structural changes during electrochemical cycling. We show an inverse relationship between the degree of proton insertion and HER overpotential in tungsten oxides: the lack of proton insertion leads to a high overpotential for the HER. We discuss three hypotheses for how proton insertion leads to HER activity in WO 3 ∙xH 2 O: 1) proton insertion changes the electronic band structure of WO 3 ∙xH 2 O, 2) the presence of bulk protons can influence ΔG H,ads at the surface sites, and 3) inserted protons may participate in the HER mechanism on WO 3 ∙xH 2 O. Overall, this work shows the critical role of proton insertion in enabling high HER activity in tungsten oxides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗